How critical is timing for the diagnosis of influenza in general practice?

QUESTIONS UNDER STUDY: The diagnostic significance of clinical symptoms/signs of influenza has mainly been assessed in the context of controlled studies with stringent inclusion criteria. There was a need to extend the evaluation of these predictors not only in the context of general practice but also according to the duration of symptoms and to the dynamics of the epidemic. PRINCIPLES: A prospective study conducted in the Medical Outpatient Clinic in the winter season 1999-2000. Patients with influenza-like syndrome were included, as long as the primary care physician envisaged the diagnosis of influenza. The physician administered a questionnaire, a throat swab was performed and a culture acquired to document the diagnosis of influenza. RESULTS: 201 patients were included in the study. 52% were culture positive for influenza. By univariate analysis, temperature >37.8 degrees C (OR 4.2; 95% CI 2.3-7.7), duration of symptoms <48 hours (OR 3.2; 1.8-5.7), cough (OR 3.2; 1-10.4) and myalgia (OR 2.8; 1.0-7.5) were associated with a diagnosis of influenza. In a multivariable logistic analysis, the best model predicting influenza was the association of a duration of symptom <48 hours, medical attendance at the beginning of the epidemic (weeks 49-50), fever >37.8 and cough, with a sensitivity of 79%, specificity of 69%, positive predictive value of 67%, negative predictive value of 73% and an area under the ROC curve of 0.74. CONCLUSIONS: Besides relevant symptoms and signs, the physician should also consider the duration of symptoms and the epidemiological context (start, peak or end of the epidemic) in his appraisal, since both parameters considerably modify the value of the clinical predictors when assessing the probability of a patient having influenza.

Evaluación preliminar del impacto en México de la influenza AH1N1: documento elaborado por el equipo conjunto CEPAL

Incluye Bibliografía

Inquérito soroepidemiológico para os vírus influenza em Belém, Pará, Brasil, 1992-1993

Um estudo soroepidemiológico foi realizado para determinar a prevalência de anticorpos IH para os sorotipos de influenza circulantes entre pacientes atendidos no Laboratório de Virologia do IEC, em Belém, PA, Brasil, em 1992 e 1993. Um total de 179 (11%) amostras de sangue foi coletado durante período pós-epidêmico e processado pelo teste da Inibição da Hemaglutinação para os vírus da influenza A/Taiwan/1/86 (H1N1), A/Beijing/353/89 (H3N2) e B/Yamagata/16/88. Os resultados indicaram a circulação de vírus antigenicamente relacionados aos três sorotipos pesquisados. Em 1992, altas taxas de soropositividade foram observadas para as cepas H1N1 (84%) e H3N2 (56%), bem como anticorpos IH foram detectados em todas as faixas de idade, sugerindo intensa circulação desses vírus. No mesmo ano, a atividade da influenza B revelou-se em níveis moderados. A prevalência de anticorpos IH para os vírus H1N1, em 1993, foi similar à observada em 1992, indicando a circulação desses vírus em ambos os anos. Um aumento na prevalência dos vírus H3N2, em 1993, sugere que a cepa A/Beijing/353/89 (ou uma antigenicamente relacionada) também circulou intensamente naquele ano. Do mesmo modo, a atividade dos vírus da influenza B aumentou em 1993, como apontam as infecções em todas as idades, particularmente entre os adultos jovens.

An analysis of the spatial and temporal patterns of highly pathogenic avian influenza occurrence in Vietnam using national surveillance data

The objectives of this study were to describe the spatio-temporal pattern of an epidemic of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in Vietnam and to identify potential risk factors for the introduction and maintenance of infection within the poultry population. The results indicate that during the time period 2004–early 2006 a sequence of three epidemic waves occurred in Vietnam as distinct spatial and temporal clusters. The risk of outbreak occurrence increased with a greater percentage of rice paddy fields, increasing domestic water bird and chicken density. It increased with reducing distance to higher population density aggregations, and in the third epidemic wave with increasing percentage of aquaculture. The findings indicate that agri-livestock farming systems involving domestic water birds and rice production in river delta areas are important for the maintenance and spread of infection. While the government’s control measures appear to have been effective in the South and Central parts of Vietnam, it is likely that in the North of Vietnam the vaccination campaign led to transmission of infection which was subsequently brought under control.

Mapping H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza risk in Southeast Asia

The highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 virus that emerged in southern China in the mid-1990s has in recent years evolved into the first HPAI panzootic. In many countries where the virus was detected, the virus was successfully controlled, whereas other countries face periodic reoccurrence despite significant control efforts. A central question is to understand the factors favoring the continuing reoccurrence of the virus. The abundance of domestic ducks, in particular free-grazing ducks feeding in intensive rice cropping areas, has been identified as one such risk factor based on separate studies carried out in Thailand and Vietnam. In addition, recent extensive progress was made in the spatial prediction of rice cropping intensity obtained through satellite imagery processing. This article analyses the statistical association between the recorded HPAI H5N1 virus presence and a set of five key environmental variables comprising elevation, human population, chicken numbers, duck numbers, and rice cropping intensity for three synchronous epidemic waves in Thailand and Vietnam. A consistent pattern emerges suggesting risk to be associated with duck abundance, human population, and rice cropping intensity in contrast to a relatively low association with chicken numbers. A statistical risk model based on the second epidemic wave data in Thailand is found to maintain its predictive power when extrapolated to Vietnam, which supports its application to other countries with similar agro-ecological conditions such as Laos or Cambodia. The model’s potential application to mapping HPAI H5N1 disease risk in Indonesia is discussed.

A STUDY OF INFLUENZA AND OF STATISTICAL METHODS USED TO REPORT INFLUENZA

This paper defines and compares several models for describing excess influenza pneumonia mortality in Houston. First, the methodology used by the Center for Disease Control is examined and several variations of this methodology are studied. All of the models examined emphasize the difficulty of omitting epidemic weeks.^ In an attempt to find a better method of describing expected and epidemic mortality, time series methods are examined. Grouping in four-week periods, truncating the data series to adjust epidemic periods, and seasonally-adjusting the series y(,t), by:^ (DIAGRAM, TABLE OR GRAPHIC OMITTED...PLEASE SEE DAI)^ is the best method examined. This new series w(,t) is stationary and a moving average model MA(1) gives a good fit for forecasting influenza and pneumonia mortality in Houston.^ Influenza morbidity, other causes of death, sex, race, age, climate variables, environmental factors, and school absenteeism are all examined in terms of their relationship to influenza and pneumonia mortality. Both influenza morbidity and ischemic heart disease mortality show a very high relationship that remains when seasonal trends are removed from the data. However, when jointly modeling the three series it is obvious that the simple time series MA(1) model of truncated, seasonally-adjusted four-week data gives a better forecast.^

Variable efficacy of repeated annual influenza vaccination

Conclusions have differed in studies that have compared vaccine efficacy in groups receiving influenza vaccine for the first time to efficacy in groups vaccinated more than once. For example, the Hoskins study [Hoskins, T. W., Davis, J. R., Smith, A. J., Miller, C. L. & Allchin, A. (1979) Lancet i, 33–35] concluded that repeat vaccination was not protective in the long term, whereas the Keitel study [Keitel, W. A., Cate, T. R., Couch, R. B., Huggins, L. L. & Hess, K. R. (1997) Vaccine 15, 1114–1122] concluded that repeat vaccination provided continual protection. We propose an explanation, the antigenic distance hypothesis, and test it by analyzing seven influenza outbreaks that occurred during the Hoskins and Keitel studies. The hypothesis is that variation in repeat vaccine efficacy is due to differences in antigenic distances among vaccine strains and between the vaccine strains and the epidemic strain in each outbreak. To test the hypothesis, antigenic distances were calculated from historical hemagglutination inhibition assay tables, and a computer model of the immune response was used to predict the vaccine efficacy of individuals given different vaccinations. The model accurately predicted the observed vaccine efficacies in repeat vaccinees relative to the efficacy in first-time vaccinees (correlation 0.87). Thus, the antigenic distance hypothesis offers a parsimonious explanation of the differences between and within the Hoskins and Keitel studies. These results have implications for the selection of influenza vaccine strains, and also for vaccination strategies for other antigenically variable pathogens that might require repeated vaccination.

Long term trends in the evolution of H(3) HA1 human influenza type A

We have studied the HA1 domain of 254 human influenza A(H3N2) virus genes for clues that might help identify characteristics of hemagglutinins (HAs) of circulating strains that are predictive of that strain’s epidemic potential. Our preliminary findings include the following. (i) The most parsimonious tree found requires 1,260 substitutions of which 712 are silent and 548 are replacement substitutions. (ii) The HA1 portion of the HA gene is evolving at a rate of 5.7 nucleotide substitutions/year or 5.7 × 10−3 substitutions/site per year. (iii) The replacement substitutions are distributed randomly across the three positions of the codon when allowance is made for the number of ways each codon can change the encoded amino acid. (iv) The replacement substitutions are not distributed randomly over the branches of the tree, there being 2.2 times more changes per tip branch than for non-tip branches. This result is independent of how the virus was amplified (egg grown or kidney cell grown) prior to sequencing or if sequencing was carried out directly on the original clinical specimen by PCR. (v) These excess changes on the tip branches are probably the result of a bias in the choice of strains to sequence and the detection of deleterious mutations that had not yet been removed by negative selection. (vi) There are six hypervariable codons accumulating replacement substitutions at an average rate that is 7.2 times that of the other varied codons. (vii) The number of variable codons in the trunk branches (the winners of the competitive race against the immune system) is 47 ± 5, significantly fewer than in the twigs (90 ± 7), which in turn is significantly fewer variable codons than in tip branches (175 ± 8). (viii) A minimum of one of every 12 branches has nodes at opposite ends representing viruses that reside on different continents. This is, however, no more than would be expected if one were to randomly reassign the continent of origin of the isolates. (ix) Of 99 codons with at least four mutations, 31 have ratios of non-silent to silent changes with probabilities less than 0.05 of occurring by chance, and 14 of those have probabilities <0.005. These observations strongly support positive Darwinian selection. We suggest that the small number of variable positions along the successful trunk lineage, together with knowledge of the codons that have shown positive selection, may provide clues that permit an improved prediction of which strains will cause epidemics and therefore should be used for vaccine production.

Planning and evaluation

Introduction: The core business of public health is to protect and promote health in the population. Public health planning is the means to maximise these aspirations. Health professionals develop plans to address contemporary health priorities as the evidence about changing patterns of mortality and morbidity is presented. Officials are also alert to international trends in patterns of disease that have the potential to affect the health of Australians. Integrated planning and preparation is currently underway involving all emergency health services, hospitals and population health units to ensure Australia's quick and efficient response to any major infectious disease outbreak, such as avian influenza (bird flu). Public health planning for the preparations for the Sydney Olympics and Paralympic Games in 2000 took almost three years. ‘Its major components included increased surveillance of communicable disease; presentations to sentinel emergency departments; medical encounters at Olympic venues; cruise ship surveillance; environmental and food safety inspections; bioterrorism surveillance and global epidemic intelligence’ (Jorm et al 2003, 102). In other words, the public health plan was developed to ensure food safety, hospital capacity, safe crowd control, protection against infectious diseases, and an integrated emergency and disaster plan. We have national and state plans for vaccinating children against infectious diseases in childhood; plans to promote dental health for children in schools; and screening programs for cervical, breast and prostate cancer. An effective public health response to a change in the distribution of morbidity and mortality requires planning. All levels of government plan for the public’s health. Local governments (councils) ensure healthy local environments to protect the public’s health. They plan parks for recreation, construct traffic-calming devices near schools to prevent childhood accidents, build shade structures and walking paths, and even embed drafts/chess squares in tables for people to sit and play. Environmental Health officers ensure food safety in restaurants and measure water quality. These public health measures attempt to promote the quality of life of residents. Australian and state governments produce plans that protect and promote health through various policy and program initiatives and innovations. To be effective, program plans need to be evaluated. However, building an integrated evaluation plan into a program plan is often forgotten, as planning and evaluation are seen as two distinct entities. Consequently, it is virtually impossible to measure, with any confidence, the extent to which a program has achieved its goals and objectives. This chapter introduces you to the concepts of public health program planning and evaluation. Case studies and reflection questions are presented to illustrate key points. As various authors use different terminology to describe the same concepts/actions of planning and evaluation, the glossary at the back of this book will help you to clarify the terms used in this chapter.

An epidemic of pain in an Australian radiology practice

This paper presents findings from a study of an organisationally mandated assimilation process of an enterprise-wide information system in a radiology practice in Australia. A number of interviews with radiologists, radiographers and administrative staff are used to explore the impact of institutional structures on the assimilation process. The case study develops an argument that culture within and outside the Australian Radiology Practice (ARP), social structures within the ARP and organisational-level management mandates have impacted on the assimilation process. The study develops a theoretical framework that integrates elements of social actor theory (Lamb & Kling, 2003) to provide a more fine-grained analysis concentrating on the relationship among the radiology practitioners, the technology (an enterprise-wide Health Information System) and a larger social milieu surrounding its use. This study offers several theoretical and practical implications for technology assimilation in the health and radiology industry regarding the important roles social interactions, individual self-perceptions, organisational mandates and policies can play in assimilating new ICTs.

Cochrane review summary for cancer nursing : influenza vaccination in children having chemotherapy for cancer

Background: Children having chemotherapy for cancer are prone to developing influenza infections. Influenza virus infection may lead to hospitalization/prolonged hospitalization, interruption of treatment, and other severe adverse outcomes such as death. Although clinical guidelines recommend children who are being treated for cancer be vaccinated against influenza, evidence supporting this recommendation is unclear.--------- Objectives: The objectives of this review were to (1) assess the efficacy of influenza vaccination in stimulating immunologic response in children with cancer receiving chemotherapy, compared with other control groups; (2) assess the efficacy of influenza vaccination in preventing influenza infection; and (3) establish any adverse effects associated with influenza vaccines in children with cancer.

Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 Influenza Outbreak in Australia: Impact on Emergency Departments.

Executive summary Objective: The aims of this study were to identify the impact of Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 Influenza on Australian Emergency Departments (EDs) and their staff, and to inform planning, preparedness, and response management arrangements for future pandemics, as well as managing infectious patients presenting to EDs in everyday practice. Methods This study involved three elements: 1. The first element of the study was an examination of published material including published statistics. Standard literature research methods were used to identify relevant published articles. In addition, data about ED demand was obtained from Australian Government Department of Health and Ageing (DoHA) publications, with several state health departments providing more detailed data. 2. The second element of the study was a survey of Directors of Emergency Medicine identified with the assistance of the Australasian College for Emergency Medicine (ACEM). This survey retrieved data about demand for ED services and elicited qualitative comments on the impact of the pandemic on ED management. 3. The third element of the study was a survey of ED staff. A questionnaire was emailed to members of three professional colleges—the ACEM; the Australian College of Emergency Nursing (ACEN); and the College of Emergency Nursing Australasia (CENA). The overall response rate for the survey was 18.4%, with 618 usable responses from 3355 distributed questionnaires. Topics covered by the survey included ED conditions during the (H1N1) 2009 influenza pandemic; information received about Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 Influenza; pandemic plans; the impact of the pandemic on ED staff with respect to stress; illness prevention measures; support received from others in work role; staff and others’ illness during the pandemic; other factors causing ED staff to miss work during the pandemic; and vaccination against Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 Influenza. Both qualitative and quantitative data were collected and analysed. Results: The results obtained from Directors of Emergency Medicine quantifying the impact of the pandemic were too limited for interpretation. Data sourced from health departments and published sources demonstrated an increase in influenza-like illness (ILI) presentations of between one and a half and three times the normal level of presentations of ILIs. Directors of Emergency Medicine reported a reasonable level of preparation for the pandemic, with most reporting the use of pandemic plans that translated into relatively effective operational infection control responses. Directors reported a highly significant impact on EDs and their staff from the pandemic. Growth in demand and related ED congestion were highly significant factors causing distress within the departments. Most (64%) respondents established a ‘flu clinic’ either as part of Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 Influenza Outbreak in Australia: Impact on Emergency Departments. the ED operations or external to it. They did not note a significantly higher rate of sick leave than usual. Responses relating to the impact on staff were proportional to the size of the colleges. Most respondents felt strongly that Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 Influenza had a significant impact on demand in their ED, with most patients having low levels of clinical urgency. Most respondents felt that the pandemic had a negative impact on the care of other patients, and 94% revealed some increase in stress due to lack of space for patients, increased demand, and filling staff deficits. Levels of concern about themselves or their family members contracting the illness were less significant than expected. Nurses displayed significantly higher levels of stress overall, particularly in relation to skill-mix requirements, lack of supplies and equipment, and patient and patients’ family aggression. More than one-third of respondents became ill with an ILI. Whilst respondents themselves reported taking low levels of sick leave, respondents cited difficulties with replacing absent staff. Ranked from highest to lowest, respondents gained useful support from ED colleagues, ED administration, their hospital occupational health department, hospital administration, professional colleges, state health department, and their unions. Respondents were generally positive about the information they received overall; however, the volume of information was considered excessive and sometimes inconsistent. The media was criticised as scaremongering and sensationalist and as being the cause of many unnecessary presentations to EDs. Of concern to the investigators was that a large proportion (43%) of respondents did not know whether a pandemic plan existed for their department or hospital. A small number of staff reported being redeployed from their usual workplace for personal risk factors or operational reasons. As at the time of survey (29 October –18 December 2009), 26% of ED staff reported being vaccinated against Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 Influenza. Of those not vaccinated, half indicated they would ‘definitely’ or ‘probably’ not get vaccinated, with the main reasons being the vaccine was ‘rushed into production’, ‘not properly tested’, ‘came out too late’, or not needed due to prior infection or exposure, or due to the mildness of the disease. Conclusion: Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 Influenza had a significant impact on Australian Emergency Departments. The pandemic exposed problems in existing plans, particularly a lack of guidelines, general information overload, and confusion due to the lack of a single authoritative information source. Of concern was the high proportion of respondents who did not know if their hospital or department had a pandemic plan. Nationally, the pandemic communication strategy needs a detailed review, with more engagement with media networks to encourage responsible and consistent reporting. Also of concern was the low level of immunisation, and the low level of intention to accept vaccination. This is a problem seen in many previous studies relating to seasonal influenza and health care workers. The design of EDs needs to be addressed to better manage infectious patients. Significant workforce issues were confronted in this pandemic, including maintaining appropriate staffing levels; staff exposure to illness; access to, and appropriate use of, personal protective equipment (PPE); and the difficulties associated with working in PPE for prolonged periods. An administrative issue of note was the reporting requirement, which created considerable additional stress for staff within EDs. Peer and local support strategies helped ensure staff felt their needs were provided for, creating resilience, dependability, and stability in the ED workforce. Policies regarding the establishment of flu clinics need to be reviewed. The ability to create surge capacity within EDs by considering staffing, equipment, physical space, and stores is of primary importance for future pandemics.

Anticipated behaviours of emergency prehospital medical care providers during an influenza pandemic

Introduction: Emergency prehospital medical care providers are frontline health workers during emergencies. However, little is known about their attitudes, perceptions, and likely behaviors during emergency conditions. Understanding these attitudes and behaviors is crucial to mitigating the psychological and operational effects of biohazard events such as pandemic influenza, and will support the business continuity of essential prehospital services. ----- ----- Problem: This study was designed to investigate the association between knowledge and attitudes regarding avian influenza on likely behavioral responses of Australian emergency prehospital medical care providers in pandemic conditions. ----- ----- Methods: Using a reply-paid postal questionnaire, the knowledge and attitudes of a national, stratified, random sample of the Australian emergency prehospital medical care workforce in relation to pandemic influenza were investigated. In addition to knowledge and attitudes, there were five measures of anticipated behavior during pandemic conditions: (1) preparedness to wear personal protective equipment (PPE); (2) preparedness to change role; (3) willingness to work; and likely refusal to work with colleagues who were exposed to (4) known and (5) suspected influenza. Multiple logistic regression models were constructed to determine the independent predictors of each of the anticipated behaviors, while controlling for other relevant variables. ----- ----- Results: Almost half (43%) of the 725 emergency prehospital medical care personnel who responded to the survey indicated that they would be unwilling to work during pandemic conditions; one-quarter indicated that they would not be prepared to work in PPE; and one-third would refuse to work with a colleague exposed to a known case of pandemic human influenza. Willingness to work during a pandemic (OR = 1.41; 95% CI = 1.0–1.9), and willingness to change roles (OR = 1.44; 95% CI = 1.04–2.0) significantly increased with adequate knowledge about infectious agents generally. Generally, refusal to work with exposed (OR = 0.48; 95% CI = 0.3–0.7) or potentially exposed (OR = 0.43; 95% CI = 0.3–0.6) colleagues significantly decreased with adequate knowledge about infectious agents. Confidence in the employer’s capacity to respond appropriately to a pandemic significantly increased employee willingness to work (OR = 2.83; 95% CI = 1.9–4.1); willingness to change roles during a pandemic (OR = 1.52; 95% CI = 1.1–2.1); preparedness to wear PPE (OR = 1.68; 95% CI = 1.1–2.5); and significantly decreased the likelihood of refusing to work with colleagues exposed to (suspected) influenza (OR = 0.59; 95% CI = 0.4–0.9). ----- ----- Conclusions:These findings indicate that education and training alone will not adequately prepare the emergency prehospital medical workforce for a pandemic. It is crucial to address the concerns of ambulance personnel and the perceived concerns of their relationship with partners in order to maintain an effective prehospital emergency medical care service during pandemic conditions.

Attitudes to living and working in pandemic conditions among emergency prehospital medical care personnel

Introduction: Little is known about the risk perceptions and attitudes of healthcare personnel, especially of emergency prehospital medical care personnel, regarding the possibility of an outbreak or epidemic event. Problem: This study was designed to investigate pre-event knowledge and attitudes of a national sample of the emergency prehospital medical care providers in relation to a potential human influenza pandemic, and to determine predictors of these attitudes. Methods: Surveys were distributed to a random, cross-sectional sample of 20% of the Australian emergency prehospital medical care workforce (n = 2,929), stratified by the nine services operating in Australia, as well as by gender and location. The surveys included: (1) demographic information; (2) knowledge of influenza; and (3) attitudes and perceptions related to working during influenza pandemic conditions. Multiple logistic regression models were constructed to identify predictors of pandemic-related risk perceptions. Results: Among the 725 Australian emergency prehospital medical care personnel who responded, 89% were very anxious about working during pandemic conditions, and 85% perceived a high personal risk associated with working in such conditions. In general, respondents demonstrated poor knowledge in relation to avian influenza, influenza generally, and infection transmission methods. Less than 5% of respondents perceived that they had adequate education/training about avian influenza. Logistic regression analyses indicate that, in managing the attitudes and risk perceptions of emergency prehospital medical care staff, particular attention should be directed toward the paid, male workforce (as opposed to volunteers), and on personnel whose relationship partners do not work in the health industry. Conclusions: These results highlight the potentially crucial role of education and training in pandemic preparedness. Organizations that provide emergency prehospital medical care must address this apparent lack of knowledge regarding infection transmission, and procedures for protection and decontamination. Careful management of the perceptions of emergency prehospital medical care personnel during a pandemic is likely to be critical in achieving an effective response to a widespread outbreak of infectious disease.