Persistent and consistent poverty in the 1994 and 1995 waves of the European Community Household Panel Survey

This paper focuses on the mismatch between income and deprivation measures of poverty. Using the first two waves of the European Community Household Panel Survey, a measure of relative deprivation is constructed and the overlap between the relative income poor and relatively deprived is examined, There is very limited overlap with the lowest relative income threshold. The overlap increases as the income threshold is raised, but it remains true that less than half those below the 60 percent relative income line are among the most deprived. Relative deprivation is shown to be related to the persistence of income poverty, but also to a range of other resource and need factors. Income and deprivation measures each contain information that can profitably be employed to enhance our understanding of poverty and a range of other social phenomena. This is illustrated by the manner in which both income poverty and relative deprivation are associated with self-reported difficulty making ends meet.

Targeting poverty: Lessons from monitoring Ireland's national anti-poverty strategy

In 1997 the Irish government adopted the National Anti-Poverty Strategy (NAPS), a global target for the reduction of poverty which illuminates a range of issues relating to official poverty targets. The Irish target is framed in terms of a relative poverty measure incorporating both relative income and direct measures of deprivation based on data on the extent of poverty from 1994. Since 1994 Ireland has experienced an unprecedented period of economic growth that makes it particularly important to assess whether the target has been achieved, but in doing so we cannot avoid asking some underlying questions about how poverty should be measured and monitored over time. After briefly outlining the nature of the NAPS measure, this article examines trends in poverty in Ireland between 1987 and 1997, Results show that the relative income and deprivation components of the NAPS measure reveal differential trends with increasing relative income poverty, but decreasing deprivation. However, this differential could be due to the fact that the direct measures of deprivation upon which NAPS is based have not been updated to take account of changes in real living standards and increasing expectations. To test whether this is so, we examine the extent to which expectations about living standards and the structure of deprivation have changed over time using confirmatory factor analysis and tests of criterion validity using different definitions of deprivation. Results show that the combined income and deprivation measure, as originally constituted, continues to identify a set of households experiencing generalised deprivation resulting from a lack of resources.

The relationship between income and deprivation: A dynamic perspective

Income poverty lines may fail to distinguish households experiencing deprivation/exclusion. Analysing a large sample of Irish households, we find that current income is an important influence on deprivation levels, hut so are many other aspects of a household's current situation and how it arrived there. It is also important to distinguish different dimensions in using deprivation indicators with income to measure poverty.

Comparing poverty and deprivation dynamics:Issues of reliability and validity

In this paper we seek to establish if earlier findings relating to the relationship between income poverty persistence and deprivation persistence could be due to a failure to take measurement error into account. To address this question, we apply a model of dynamics incorporating structural and error components. Our analysis shows a general similarity between latent poverty and deprivation dynamics. In both cases we substantially over-estimate the probability of exiting from poverty or deprivation. We observe a striking similarity across dimensions for both observed and latent outcomes. In both cases levels of poverty and deprivation persistence are higher for the latent case. However, there is no evidence that earlier results relating to the differences in the determinants of poverty and deprivation persistence are a consequence of differential patterns of reliability. Taking measurement error into account seems more likely to accentuate rather than diminish the contrasts highlighted by earlier research. Since longitudinal differences relating to poverty and deprivation cannot be accounted for by measurement error, it seems that we must accept that we are confronted with issues relating to validity rather than reliability. Even where we measure these dimensions over reasonable periods of time and allow for measurement error, they continue to tap relatively distinct phenomenon. Thus, if measures of persistent poverty are to constitute an important component of EU social indicators, a strong case can be made for including parallel measures of deprivation persistence and continuing to explore the relationship between them. © Springer Science+Business Media, Inc. 2006.

Money income of households, families, and persons in the United States.

Vols. for 1988 and 1989 issued together.

The Dynamics of Energy Poverty : Evidence from Spain

Peer reviewed

The Dynamics of Energy Poverty : Evidence from Spain

Peer reviewed

Poverty Dynamics: Empirical Evidence for Canada (Working Paper 29)

Poverty (low income) dynamics are explored using tax filer data covering the period 1992 to 1996. The distributions of short-and long-term episodes are identified, and reveal substantial differences by sex and family type. Entry and exit models explore the relationships between poverty transitions and sex, family status and other personal and situational attributes. Duration effects on exiting and re-entering poverty are found to be important, and models including past poverty experiences point to strong "occurrence dependence" for poverty entry and incidence. Fixed-effect panel data models confirm the above, and reveal asymmetries in the impacts of household transitions on poverty.

Analysis of Poverty Dynamics in Canada (Working Paper 9)

While we know much about poverty (or “low income”) in Canada in a static context, our understanding of the underlying dynamics remains very limited. This is particularly problematic from a policy perspective and the country has been increasingly left out on an international level in this regard. The contribution of this paper is to report the results of an empirical analysis of low income (“poverty”) dynamics in Canada using the recently available “LAD” tax-based database. The paper first describes the general nature of individuals’ poverty profiles (how many are short-term versus longterm, etc.)., the breakdown of the poor population in any given year amongst these different types, and the characterisation of poverty profiles by sex and family type. It then reports the estimation of various econometric models, starting with a set which specifies entry into and exit from poverty in any given year as a function of a variety of personal attributes and situational characteristics, including family status and changes therein, province of residence, inter-provincial mobility, language, area size of residence and calendar year (to capture trend effects). A set of proper hazard models then adds duration effects to these specifications to see how exit and re-entry probabilities shift with the amount of time spent in a poverty spell or after having exited a previous spell. A final set of specifications then investigates “occurrence dependence” effects by including past poverty spells first in an entry model and then with respect to the probability of being poor in a given year. Policy implications are discussed.

Transportation disadvantage determination framework : space-time organisation measure in determining transportation disadvantage

Transportation disadvantage has been recognised to be the key source of social exclusion. Therefore an appropriate process is required to investigate and seek to resolve this problem. Currently, determination of Transportation Disadvantage is postulate based on income, poverty and mobility level. Transportation disadvantage may best regard be based on accessibility perspectives as they represent inability of the individual to access desired activities. This paper attempts to justify a process in determining transportation disadvantage by incorporating accessibility and social transporation conflict as the essence of a framework. The framework embeds space time organisation within the dimension of accessibility to identify a rigorous definition of transportation disadvantage. In developing the framework, the definition, dimension, component and measure of accessibility were scrutinised. The findings suggest the definition and dimension are the significant approach of research to evaluate travel experience of the disadvantaged. Concurrently, location accessibility measures will be incorprated to strenghten the determination of accessibility level. Literature review in social exclusion and mobility-related exclusion identified the dimension and source of transportation disadvantage. It was revealed that the appropriate approach to justify trasnportation disadvantaged is to incorporate space-time organisation within the studied components. The suggested framework is an inter-related process consisting of component of accessibility; individual, networking (transport system) and activities (destination). The integration and correlation among the components shall determine the level of transportation disadvantage. Prior findings are used to retrieve the spatial distribution of transportation disadvantaged and appropriate policies are developed to resolve the problems.

Tendência temporal do índice de massa corporal em alistados do Brasil (1980-2005)

Apesar da crescente prevalência da obesidade em países desenvolvidos e em desenvolvimento, há pouca evidência da associação com fatores ambientais. Objetivos: Investigar a evolução temporal do IMC em jovens alistados do sexo masculino de 18 anos no Brasil entre 1980 e 2005; identificar pontos específicos de maior variância na série temporal e comparar pontos específicos no tempo, a evolução temporal do IMC com as mudanças socioeconômicas no Brasil. Métodos: O presente estudo explorou uma série temporal de 26 anos em homens brasileiros que se alistaram no período de 1980 a 2005. A amostra compreendeu cerca de 35-40% de todos os jovens brasileiros de 18 anos de idade. O peso corporal e a estatura foram obtidos no momento do exame médico durante o alistamento militar. Todas as mensurações antropométricas foram realizadas por pessoal especializado e treinado. As prevalências do sobrepeso e da obesidade foram calculadas com intervalos de confiança de 95%. Com a finalidade de testar a presença de heterocedasticidade na série do IMC, realizou-se o teste de Multiplicador de Lagrange (LM). Para os pontos no tempo, com oscilações acima da média do IMC, variáveis dummies foram testadas utilizando-se o modelo ARCH (Autoregressivo de Heterocedasticidade Condicionada), com um nível de significância de p <0,05. Para aqueles pontos no tempo com oscilações acima da média do IMC (anos de 1985, 1994 e 2000), variáveis dummy foram incluídos sob a hipótese foi de que a taxa de crescimento do IMC não fosse a mesma ao longo da série temporal. Para as possíveis explicações para os aumentos bruscos na curva do IMC, foram consideradas as alterações nos principais indicadores econômicos do Brasil (Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística e Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada). Os fatores econômicos analisados foram: taxa de inflação anual, produção de alimentos, pobreza (%), o consumo de refrigerantes e o rendimento médio anual. Resultados: A prevalência de sobrepeso também passou de 4,5%, em 1980, para 12,5%, em 2005, um aumento de 2,6 vezes, enquanto a prevalência de obesidade aumentou de 0,5%, em 1980, para 1,9%, em 2005, um aumento de quase 300%, mas por comparação internacional estão abaixo da média. Particularmente em 1985-6 e 1994-5, houve um aumento acentuado e significativo do IMC. Em 1985-6, a média do IMC aumentou de 21,4 kg/m2 para 21,5 kg/m2 e, em 1994-5, a média do IMC médio aumentou de 21,7 kg/m2 para 21,9 kg/m2. Nesses dois pontos (1985-1986 e 1994-1995) ocorreram logo após duas grandes mudanças políticas econômicas que aumentaram o poder de compra da população. Em 1985-6, as mudanças foram principalmente relacionadas a fatores econômicos, tais como: a redução do nível de desigualdade social; aumento da renda familiar; redução da pobreza; o controle da inflação; aumento do tempo assistindo televisão e aumento do consumo de alimentos. Em 1994-5, além das mudanças no poder de compra, houve uma modificação na atividade física obrigatória nas escolas. Conclusão: O presente estudo mostrou um aumento abrupto da obesidade na população de homens jovens no Brasil em duas ocasiões durante esta série temporal (anos de 1985-6 e 1994-5), quando uma possível redução no gasto calórico e aumento do consumo de alimentos da população foram observados.

Work-life Conflict and Social Inequality in Western Europe

Recent debates on time-use suggest that there is an inverse relationship between time poverty and income poverty (Aguiar and Hurst in Q J Econ C(3):969-1006, 2007), with Hammermesh and Lee (Rev Econ Stat 89(2):374-383, 2007) suggesting much time poverty is 'yuppie kvetch' or 'complaining'. Gershuny (Soc Res Int Q Soc Sci 72(2):287-314, 2005) argues that busyness is the 'badge of honour': being busy is now a positive, privileged position and it is high status people who work long hours and feel busy. Is this also true of work-life conflict? This paper explores the relationship between work-life tension and social inequality, as measured by social class, drawing on evidence from the European Social Survey. To what extent is work-life conflict a problem of the (comparatively) rich and privileged professional/managerial classes, and is this true across European countries? The countries selected offer a range of institutional and policy configurations to maximise variation. Using regression modelling of an index of subjective work-life conflict, we find that in all the countries under study, work-life conflict is higher among professionals than non-professionals. Part of this is explained by the fact that professionals work longer hours and experience more work pressure than other social classes, though the effect remains even after accounting for these factors. While levels of work-life conflict vary across the countries studied, country variation in class differences is modest. We consider other explanations of why professionals report higher work-life conflict and the implications of our findings for debates on social inequality.

Social Class Variation in Risk: A Comparative Analysis of the Dynamics of Economic Vulnerability

A joint concern with multidimensionality and dynamics is a defining feature of the pervasive use of the terminology of social exclusion in the European Union. The notion of social exclusion focuses attention on economic vulnerability in the sense of exposure to risk and uncertainty. Sociological concern with these issues has been associated with the thesis that risk and uncertainty have become more pervasive and extend substantially beyond the working class. This paper combines features of recent approaches to statistical modelling of poverty dynamics and multidimensional deprivation in order to develop our understanding of the dynamics of economic vulnerability. An analysis involving nine countries and covering the first five waves of the European Community Household Panel shows that, across nations and time, it is possible to identify an economically vulnerable class. This class is characterized by heightened risk of falling below a critical resource level, exposure to material deprivation and experience of subjective economic stress. Cross-national differentials in persistence of vulnerability are wider than in the case of income poverty and less affected by measurement error. Economic vulnerability profiles vary across welfare regimes in a manner broadly consistent with our expectations. Variation in the impact of social class within and across countries provides no support for the argument that its role in structuring such risk has become much less important. Our findings suggest that it is possible to accept the importance of the emergence of new forms of social risk and acknowledge the significance of efforts to develop welfare states policies involving a shift of opportunities and decision making on to individuals without accepting the 'death of social class' thesis.

Identifying Economically Vulnerable Groups as the Economic Crisis Emerged

A frequent refrain during recent debates on welfare cuts and tax increases has related to the need to "protect the vulnerable". However, it is far from clear that a consensus exists on which individuals or groups are to be included under this heading with a consequent lack of clarity for the policy implications of pursuing this goal. In this paper, operating with a conception of social exclusion that incorporates notions of dynamics and multidimensionality, we make use of EU-SILC 2008 data for Ireland to clarify the distinction between income poverty and economic vulnerability. We then proceed to consider the relationship between these outcomes and multiple deprivation, financial pressures and perceptions of recent and future economic prospects. Our analysis is then extended to compare patterns of risk for poverty and vulnerability in relation to key socio-economic groups. Finally, we will consider the relationship between poverty and vulnerability and the distribution of welfare dependence. Our analysis suggests that the vulnerable but non-poor group may need to be a key focus of policy attention in the future.

Vulnerability and multiple deprivation perspectives on economic exclusion in Europe: A latent class analysis

In this paper we address issues relating to vulnerability to economic exclusion and levels of economic exclusion in Europe. We do so by applying latent class models to data from the European Community Household Panel for thirteen countries. This approach allows us to distinguish between vulnerability to economic exclusion and exposure to multiple deprivation at a particular point in time. The results of our analysis confirm that in every country it is possible to distinguish between a vulnerable and a non-vulnerable class. Association between income poverty, life-style deprivation and subjective economic strain is accounted for by allocating individuals to the categories of this latent variable. The size of the vulnerable class varies across countries in line with expectations derived from welfare regime theory. Between class differentiation is weakest in social democratic regimes but otherwise the pattern of differentiation is remarkably similar. The key discriminatory factor is life-style deprivation, followed by income and economic strain. Social class and employment status are powerful predictors of latent class membership in all countries but the strength of these relationships varies across welfare regimes. Individual biography and life events are also related to vulnerability to economic exclusion. However, there is no evidence that they account for any significant part of the socio-economic structuring of vulnerability and no support is found for the hypothesis that social exclusion has come to transcend class boundaries and become a matter of individual biography. However, the extent of socio-economic structuring does vary substantially across welfare regimes. Levels of economic exclusion, in the sense of current exposure to multiple deprivation, also vary systematically by welfare regime and social class. Taking both vulnerability to economic exclusion and levels of exclusion into account suggests that care should be exercised in moving from evidence on the dynamic nature of poverty and economic exclusion to arguments relating to the superiority of selective over universal social policies.