Fluctuations in heroin purity and the incidence of fatal heroin overdose

In order to determine the role played by heroin purity in fatal heroin overdoses, time series analyses were conducted on the purity of street heroin seizures in south western Sydney and overdose fatalities in that region. A total of 322 heroin samples were analysed in fortnightly periods between February 1993 to January 1995. A total of 61 overdose deaths occurred in the region in the study period. Cross correlation plots revealed a significant correlation of 0.57 at time lag zero between mean purity of heroin samples per fortnight and number of overdose fatalities. Similarly, there was a significant correlation of 0.50 at time lag zero between the highest heroin purity per fortnight and number of overdose fatalities. The correlation between range of heroin purity and number of deaths per fortnight was 0.40. A simultaneous multiple regression on scores adjusted for first order correlation indicated both the mean level of heroin purity and the range of heroin purity were independent predictors of the number of deaths per fortnight. The results indicate that the occurrence of overdose fatalities was moderately associated with both the average heroin purity and the range of heroin purity over the study period. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

A model for predicting the future incidence of coronary heart disease within percentiles of coronary heart disease risk

Background We present a method (The CHD Prevention Model) for modelling the incidence of fatal and nonfatal coronary heart disease (CHD) within various CHD risk percentiles of an adult population. The model provides a relatively simple tool for lifetime risk prediction for subgroups within a population. It allows an estimation of the absolute primary CHD risk in different populations and will help identify subgroups of the adult population where primary CHD prevention is most appropriate and cost-effective. Methods The CHD risk distribution within the Australian population was modelled, based on the prevalence of CHD risk, individual estimates of integrated CHD risk, and current CHD mortality rates. Predicted incidence of first fatal and nonfatal myocardial infarction within CHD risk strata of the Australian population was determined. Results Approximately 25% of CHD deaths were predicted to occur amongst those in the top 10 percentiles of integrated CHD risk, regardless of age group or gender. It was found that while all causes survival did not differ markedly between percentiles of CHD risk before the ages of around 50-60, event-free survival began visibly to differ about 5 years earlier. Conclusions The CHD Prevention Model provides a means of predicting future CHD incidence amongst various strata of integrated CHD risk within an adult population. It has significant application both in individual risk counselling and in the identification of subgroups of the population where drug therapy to reduce CHD risk is most cost-effective. J Cardiovasc Risk 8:31-37 (C) 2001 Lippincott Williams & Wilkins.

The incidence of schizophrenia: A systematic review

There has been a debate on whether or not the incidence of schizophrenia varies across time and place. In order to optimise the evidence upon which this debate is based, we have undertaken a systematicsystematic review of the literature. In this paper we provide an overview of the methods of the review and a preliminary analysis of the studies identified to date. Electronic databases (Medline, Psychlnfo, Embase, LILAC) were systematically searched for articles published between January 1965 and December 2001. The search terms were: (schizo* OR psycho*)AND (incidence OR prevalence). References were also identified from review articles, reference list and by writing to authors. To date we have identified 137 papers drawn from 33 nations. 37 papers in language other than English await translation. The currently included papers have generated 1413 different items of rate information data. In order to analyze these data we have undertaken several sequential filters in order to identify (a) non-overlapping data, (b) birth cohort study versus noncohort studies, (c) overall and sex-specific rates, (d) diagnostic criteria, (e) age ranges, (f) epoch of study, and (g) data on migrant or other special interest groups. In addition, we will examine the impact of urbanicity of site, age and/or sex standardization, and quality score on the incidence rates. The various discrete incidence rates will be presented graphically and the impact of various filters on these rates will be inspected using meta-analytic techniques. The use of meta-analysis may help elucidate the epidemiological landscape with respect to the incidence of schizophrenia and aid in the generation of new hypothesis. Acknowledgements: The Stanley Medical Research Institute supported project

The actual incidence of congenital adrenal hyperplasia in Brazil may not be as high as inferred - An estimate based on a public neonatal screening program in the state of Goias

The incidence of 21-hydroxylase deficiency (CYP21 D) congenital adrenal hyperplasia (CAH) in Brazil is purportedly one of the highest in the world (1:7,533). However, this information is not based on official data. The aim of this study was to determine the incidence of CYP21 D CAH in the state of Goias, Brazil, based on the 2005 results of government-funded mandatory screening. Of the live births during this period, 92.95% were screened by heel-prick capillary 17 alpha-hydroxyprogesterone (17-OHP). Of these, 82,343 were normal, 28 were at high risk for CAH and 232 at low risk for CAH. Eight cases, all from the high risk group, were confirmed. Eight asymptomatic children at 6-18 months of age still have high 17-OHP levels and await diagnostic definition. Based on the number of confirmed CYP21 D CAH cases among the 82,603 screened, the estimated annual incidence of the disease was 1:10,325, lower than the previously reported rate in Brazil.

Falling incidence of amputations for peripheral occlusive arterial disease in western Australia between 1980 and 1992

Objectives: To assess temporal trends in the incidence of surgical procedures for peripheral occlusive arterial disease (POAD) and associated changes in outcome as measured by the rate of major lower limb amputations for POAD. Design: a retrospective descriptive population-based study was conducted of the geographically isolated population of Western Austrialia between 1980 and 1992. Methods: Vascular procedures with an accompanying diagnosis of POAD were identified in a computerised system of name-identified records of all discharges from hospital for the population. These procedures were detected using relevant codes from the International Classification of Disease and Procedures. Records of angioplasty and thrombolysis procedures were augmented by searches of hospital-based registers of invasive radiological procedures. The data for the remaining procedures were validated by a review of a random sample of medical records. Results: over the 13 years of the study, rates of major amputations fell significantly for in non-amputation vascular surgery for individuals under the age of 60. In addition, rather than an overall rise in surgery there was shift away from sympathectomy and thromboendarterectomy to angioplasty and bypass surgery. Furthermore, an increasing proportion of all major amputations had a prior attempt at arterial reconstruction. Conclusion: These observations suggest the decrease in major amputations for POAD may reflect a fall in the incidence of POAD, possibly aided by move effective surgery, rather than increased rates of vascular surgery.

Human leukocyte antigen-G expression after kidney transplantation is associated with a reduced incidence of rejection

HLA-G is a non-classic Human Leukocyte Antigen (HLA-G) Class I of low polymorphism and restricted tissue distribution that displays tolerogenic functions. In heart transplantation and in combined liver/renal allograft transplantation, the expression of HLA-G has been associated with a lower incidence of acute graft rejection episodes and absence of chronic dysfunction. Since the expression of HLA-G in renal biopsies has been investigated only in few patients who received a combined kidney and liver transplant, in this study we performed a cross-sectional study, systematically comparing the expression of HLA-G in post-transplanted renal grafts, stratifying patients according to the presence or absence of rejection. Patients and Methods: Seventy-three renal specimens (10 with acute rejection and 13 with chronic allograft nephropathy, and 50 with no signs of rejection) were immunohistochemically evaluated for HLA-G expression. Results: In the group as a whole, HLA-G molecules were detected in 40 cases (54.8%). Among specimens that presented HLA-G expression, 2 out of 40 (5%) exhibited acute rejection, 2 (5%) exhibited chronic allograft nephropathy, and the remaining 36 (90%) exhibited no signs of rejection. The comparison between patients with rejection and those without rejection showed that the expression of HLA-G was significantly increased in specimens exhibiting no signs of rejection (p<0.0001). Considering only patients with acute rejection, 8 out of 10 patients showed no HLA-G expression in their kidney biopsies when compared to patients exhibiting no signs of rejection and absence of HLA-G was observed in 14 out of 50 (p=0.0032). Similarly, considering only patients with chronic allograft nephropathy, absence of HLA-G expression was observed in I I out of 13 specimens, whereas in patients without rejection absence of HLA-G was observed in 14 out of 50 (p=0.003). Therapy with tacrolimus was significantly associated with the expression of HLA-G and a better graft prognosis. Conclusions: Our results suggest that HLA-G expression in the kidney allograft and the use of tacrolimus are associated with a lower frequency of acute renal rejection and chronic allograft nephropathy. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Incidence of stroke subtypes, prognosis and prevalence of risk factors in Joinville, Brazil: a 2 year community based study

Background: There have been few population based studies on stroke risk factors and prognosis conducted in Brazil. The objective of this study was to evaluate, over a 2 year period, the incidence of the subtypes of first ever stroke, the prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors and functional prognosis in a city located in the south of Brazil. Methods: The period from January 2005 to December 2006 was evaluated prospectively by compiling data on first ever stroke cases, medications used prior to the morbidity and the incidence of traditional risk factors. The annual incidence was adjusted for age using the direct method. Patients were monitored for at least 6 months following the event. Results: Of 1323 stroke cases, 759 were first ever stroke cases. Of these, 610 were classified as infarctions, 94 as intracerebral haemorrhage and 55 as subarachnoid haemorrhage. The crude incidence rate per 100 000 inhabitants was 61.8 for infarction (95% CI 57.0 to 66.9), 9.5 for intracerebral haemorrhage (95% CI 7.7 to 11.6) and 5.6 for subarachnoid haemorrhage (95% CI 4.2 to 7.3). The 30 day case fatality was 19.1%. The most prevalent cardiovascular risk factor was arterial hypertension. By post-stroke month 6, 25% had died (95% CI 21.4 to 29.1) whereas 61.5% had regained their independence (95% CI 56.2 to 68.3). Conclusions: Case fatality rate, prognosis and incidence adjusted for stroke subtypes were similar to those found in other population based studies. The prevalence rates of ischaemic heart disease, dyslipidaemia, arterial hypertension and diabetes suggest that Joinville presents a mixed pattern of cardiovascular risk, a pattern seen in developed and developing countries alike.

Influence of coronary artery disease assessment and treatment in the incidence of cardiac events in renal transplant recipients

Background: The best strategy for pre-transplant investigation and treatment of coronary artery disease (CAD) is controversial. Methods: We evaluated 167 renal transplant recipients before transplantation to determine the incidence of cardiac events and death. We performed clinical evaluations and myocardial scans in all patients and coronary angiography in select patients. Results: Asymptomatic patients with normal myocardial scans (n = 57) had significantly fewer cardiac events (log-rank = 0.0002) and deaths (log-rank = 0.0005) than did patients with abnormal scans but no angiographic evidence of CAD (n = 76) and individuals with CAD (n = 34) documented angiographically. CAD increased the probability of events (HR = 2.27, % CI 1.007-5.11; p = 0.04). The incidence of cardiac events (log-rank = 0.349) and deaths (log-rank = 0.588) was similar among patients treated medically (n = 23) or by intervention (n = 11). Conclusion: Asymptomatic patients with normal myocardial scans had a better cardiac prognosis than did patients with or without CAD and positive for myocardial ischemia. Patients with altered scan and CAD had the poorer outcome. Guideline-oriented medical treatment is safe and yields results comparable to coronary intervention in renal transplant patients with CAD. The data do not support pre-emptive myocardial revascularization for renal transplant candidates.

Lymphadenectomy in Colorectal Cancer Liver Metastases Resection: Incidence of Hilar Limph Nodes Micrometastasis

Background: Liver resection is considered the best treatment for metastatic colorectal cancer. Several prognostic factors have been investigated, and many studies have shown that hepatic hilum lymph nodes involvement has a negative impact on prognosis. The present study evaluated the frequency of microscopic involvement of hilar lymph nodes, through systematic lymphadenectomy and analysis of micrometastases in patients undergoing hepatectomy due to colorectal metastasis. Methods: A total of 28 patients underwent hepatic resection with hilar lymphadenectomy. Lymph nodes considered negative by conventional hematoxylin and eosin (H&E) staining were analyzed by serial sectioning with 100-mu m intervals and immunohistochemistry (IHC) with antihuman pancytokeratin antibody AE1/AE3. Results: In average, 6.18 lymph nodes were dissected per patient. No morbidity or mortality was associated to lymphadenectomy. In two patients, conventional H&E analysis showed presence of microscopic lymph node metastasis. H&E analysis allowed the identification of three other patients with lymph node micrometastases. The overall frequency of microscopic metastases, including micrometastasis, was 18%. Conclusions: Systematic lymphadenectomy allowed the detection of microscopic lymph node metastases, resulting in more accurate staging of extrahepatic disease. The inclusion of IHC increased the detection of lymph node micrometastasis. J. Surg. Oncol. 2009;100:534-537. (C) 2009 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Incidence of ipsilateral postoperative deep venous thrombosis in the amputated lower extremity of patients with peripheral obstructive arterial disease

Objective: Patients undergoing amputation of the lower limb due to peripheral arterial disease (PAD) are at risk of developing deep venous thrombosis (DVT). Few studies in the research literature report the incidence of DVT during the early postoperative period or the risk factors for the development of DVT in the amputation stump. This prospective study evaluated the incidence of DVT during the first 35 postoperative days in patients who had undergone amputation of the lower extremity due to PAD and its relation to comorbidities and death. Methods: Between September 2004 and March 2006, 56 patients (29 men), with a mean age of 67.25 years, underwent 62 amputations, comprising 36 below knee amputations (BKA) and 26 above knee amputations (AKA). Echo-Doppler scanning was performed preoperatively and on postoperative days 7 and 31 (approximately). All patients received acetylsalicylic acid (100 mg daily) preoperatively and postoperatively, but none received prophylactic anticoagulation. Results: DVT occurred in 25.8% of extremities with amputations (10 ARA and 6 BKA). The cumulative incidence in the 35-day postoperative period was 28% (Kaplan-Meier). There was a significant difference (P = .04) in the incidence of DVT between AKA (37.5%) and BKA (21.2%). Age >= 70 years (48.9% vs 16.8%, P = .021) was also a risk factor for DVT in the univariate analysis. Of the 16 cases, 14 (87.5%) were diagnosed during outpatient care. The time to discharge after amputation was averaged 6.11 days in-hospital stay (range, 1-56 days). One symptomatic nonfatal pulmonary embolism occurred in a patient already diagnosed with DVT. There was no relation between other comorbidities and DVT. The multivariate analysis showed no association between risk factors and the occurrence of DVT in the amputated extremity. DVT ipsilateral to the amputation did not influence the mortality rate (9.7%). Conclusion: The incidence of DVT in the early postoperative period (<= 35 days) was elevated principally in patients aged >= 70 years and for AKA. Patients with PAD who have recently undergone major amputations should be considered at high risk for DVT, even after hospital discharge. Given the high rate of postoperative DVT observed in this study, we now recommend prophylactic anticoagulation for these patients, but further study is needed to determine the optimal duration and efficacy of this treatment. (J Vasc Surg 2008;48:1514-9.)

Effect of Oral Hygiene with 0.12% Chlorhexidine Gluconate on the Incidence of Nosocomial Pneumonia in Children Undergoing Cardiac Surgery

OBJECTIVE. To evaluate the effect of oral hygiene with 0.12% chlorhexidine gluconate on the incidence of nosocomial pneumonia and ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) in children undergoing cardiac surgery. DESIGN. Prospective, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial. SETTING. Pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) at a tertiary care hospital. patients. One hundred sixty children undergoing surgery for congenital heart disease, randomized into 2 groups: chlorhexidine (n = 87) and control (n = 73). INTERVENTIONS. Oral hygiene with 0.12% chlorhexidine gluconate or placebo preoperatively and twice a day postoperatively until PICU discharge or death. RESULTS. Patients in experimental and control groups had similar ages (median, 12.2 vs 10.8 months; P =. 72) and risk adjustment for congenital heart surgery 1 score distribution (66% in category 1 or 2 in both groups; P =. 17). The incidence of nosocomial pneumonia was 29.8% versus 24.6% (Pp. 46) and the incidence of VAP was 18.3% versus 15% (Pp. 57) in the chlorhexidine and the control group, respectively. There was no difference in intubation time (P =. 34), need for reintubation (P =. 37), time interval between hospitalization and nosocomial pneumonia diagnosis (P =. 63), time interval between surgery and nosocomial pneumonia diagnosis (P =. 10), and time on antibiotics (P =. 77) and vasoactive drugs (P =. 16) between groups. Median length of PICU stay (3 vs 4 days; P =. 53), median length of hospital stay (12 vs 11 days; P =. 67), and 28-day mortality (5.7% vs 6.8%; P =. 77) were also similar in the chlorhexidine and the control group. CONCLUSIONS. Oral hygiene with 0.12% chlorhexidine gluconate did not reduce the incidence of nosocomial pneumonia and VAP in children undergoing cardiac surgery.

Estimating the True Incidence of Rubella

The true incidence of infectious diseases is difficult to determine from surveillance or from notification data. The proportion of new infections of rubella yields a model from serological surveys. The discrepancy between results and official notification data before vaccination era leads one to suspect the presence of hidden infections. Simulation on 80% of effective vaccination coverage shows a similar discrepancy of the total number of infections compared to notification data.