Liberibacters associated with orange jasmine in Brazil: incidence in urban areas and relatedness to citrus liberibacters

Two surveys (2005/2006 and 2009) were conducted in the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil, to investigate the incidence of `Candidatus Liberibacter asiaticus` and `Ca. L. americanus`, two liberibacters associated with citrus huanglongbing (HLB) disease and both transmitted by Diaphorina citri, in orange jasmine (Murraya exotica), a widespread ornamental tree in cities and villages. The graft-transmissibility of the two species, and their DNA relatedness to citrus-associated liberibacters, were also investigated. Quantitative PCR was applied to PCR-positive orange jasmine and HLB-positive citrus growing in backyards and orchards to assess their inoculum source potentials. Liberibacters were detected in 91 of 786 sampled orange jasmine plants in 10 of 76 sampled locations. PCR-positive trees exhibited yellow shoots and/or dieback symptoms indistinguishable from those on PCR-negative trees. `Candidatus Liberibacter americanus` was more common in 2005/2006 (96 center dot 6%) and `Ca. L. asiaticus` in 2009 (84 center dot 8%). rplJ nucleotide sequences were identical within all populations of either species. Graft transmission succeeded only in homologous host combinations, including `Ca. L. americanus` (2/10) from/to orange jasmine and `Ca. L. americanus` (5/18) and `Ca. L. asiaticus` (5/9) from/to citrus. Symptoms were mild and developed less rapidly in orange jasmine than in citrus, probably as a result of lower liberibacter multiplication rates. Respective titres of `Ca. L. americanus` and `Ca. L. asiaticus` in orange jasmine averaged 4 center dot 3 and 3 center dot 0 log cells g-1 tissue, compared with 5 center dot 5 and 7 center dot 3 in citrus. The results indicate that orange jasmine does not favour liberibacter multiplication as much as citrus. However, its importance in HLB epidemics should not be underestimated as it is a preferred host of D. citri and is not under any strict tree-eradication programme or measures for insect control.

Relation between incidence of Fusarium graminearum in seeds, emergence and occurrence of giberela in wheat seedlings

In order to verify the behavior of 30 genotypes of wheat in relation to the emergence and incidence of giberela in wheat seedlings from seeds contaminated with F graminearum, experiments were carried out under laboratory and greenhouse conditions. In the laboratory, seeds were analyzed for health using freezer blotter test. In the greenhouse, seeds were sowed in plastic boxes filled with sand treated with methyl bromide. Statistical design was randomized blocks with 30 treatments, four replications of 50 seeds (200 seeds/treatment). Emergence of seedlings and giberela incidence were evaluated at seven, 14 and 21 days after sowing. Symptomatic seedlings were removed and submitted to humid chambers for 24 hours under laboratory conditions. There was no significant difference in the incidence of the pathogen in the emergence of seedlings. There was no correlation between the incidence of F graminearum in the genotypes and incidence of giberela in seedlings, nor between the incidence of giberela in seedlings and the incidence of the pathogen in the seeds.

Incidence of black spot in citrus fruits from different processing stages in packinghouses and from Sao Paulo`s wholesale market

The purposes of this work were a) to evaluate citrus black spot (CBS) incidence in `Valencia` oranges and `Murcott` tangors aimed at the export market, and in Pera`, `Lima` and `Natal` oranges, and `Murcott` tangors, aimed at the domestic market after different processing stages in packinghouses in 2004/05 and 2005/06; b) to evaluate CBS incidence in Pera` and `Lima` oranges and `Murcott` tangors sold at Ceagesp-SP, the biggest wholesale market in the State of Sao Paulo, in 2006. Citrus fruits were collected at the packinghouse, on their arrival, after pre-washing and de-greening, from the packing table, from the pallet and at Ceagesp. They were stored for 14 to 21 days at 25 degrees C and 85-90% RH. The incidence of CBS was visually evaluated after one day and at the end of the storage period. CBS incidence in fruits aimed at the export market decreased, with values under 2.0% on arrival and no CBS symptoms observed on fruits from the pallet. The average incidence of CBS in `Pera`, `Lima` and `Natal` oranges, and `Murcott` tangors in the packinghouse aimed at the domestic market were 64.1, 39.0, 32.1 and 19.3%, respectively, after one day of storage, then remaining constant in all processing stages. The incidence of CBS in Ceagesp fruits was low in winter months and increased in the spring. The increase in disease incidence during the storage period (21 days) was not significant in collected fruits.

Spatial pattern of black spot incidence within citrus trees related to disease severity and pathogen dispersal

Guignardia citricarpa, the causal agent of citrus black spot, forms airborne ascospores on decomposing citrus leaves and water-spread conidia on fruits, leaves and twigs. The spatial pattern of diseased fruit in citrus tree canopies was used to assess the importance of ascospores and conidia in citrus black spot epidemics in Sao Paulo State, Brazil. The aggregation of diseased fruit in the citrus tree canopy was quantified by the binomial dispersion index (D) and the binary form of Taylor`s Power Law for 303 trees in six groves. D was significantly greater than 1 in 251 trees. The intercept of the regression line of Taylor`s Power Law was significantly greater than 0 and the slope was not different from 1, implying that diseased fruit was aggregated in the canopy independent of disease incidence. Disease incidence (p) and severity (S) were assessed in 2875 citrus trees. The incidence-severity relationship was described (R-2 = 88.7%) by the model ln(S) = ln(a) + bCLL(p) where CLL = complementary log-log transformation. The high severity at low incidence observed in many cases is also indicative of low distance spread of G. citricarpa spores. For the same level of disease incidence, some trees had most of the diseased fruit with many lesions and high disease severity, whereas other trees had most of the fruit with few lesions and low disease severity. Aggregation of diseased fruit in the trees suggests that splash-dispersed conidia have an important role in increasing the disease in citrus trees in Brazil.

Peach brown rot incidence related to pathogen infection at different stages of fruit development in an organic peach production system

Brown rot, caused by Monilinia fructicola, is the most widespread disease for organic peach production systems in Brazil. The objective of this study was to determine the favorable periods for latent infection by M. fructicola in organic systems. The field experiment was carried out during 2006, 2007 and 2008 using the cultivar Aurora. After thinning fruits were bagged using white paraffin bags, and the treatments were performed by removing the bags and exposing the fruit for four days to the natural infection during each of seven fruit stages from pit hardening to harvest. Throughout the entire growing season, the conidial density and the weather variables were measured and related to the disease incidence using multiple regression analyses. At the fourth day after harvest in each season, the cumulative disease incidence was assessed, and it ranged from 40 to 98%. The incidence of brown rot on fruit that were exposed during the embryo growing stage was lower than that of unbagged fruit throughout the entire season in 2006 and 2008. The relative humidity and the conidia density were significantly correlated to disease incidence. Based on our results, M. fructicola can infect peaches during any stage of fruit development, and control of the disease must be revised to account for organic peach production systems. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Fluctuations in heroin purity and the incidence of fatal heroin overdose

In order to determine the role played by heroin purity in fatal heroin overdoses, time series analyses were conducted on the purity of street heroin seizures in south western Sydney and overdose fatalities in that region. A total of 322 heroin samples were analysed in fortnightly periods between February 1993 to January 1995. A total of 61 overdose deaths occurred in the region in the study period. Cross correlation plots revealed a significant correlation of 0.57 at time lag zero between mean purity of heroin samples per fortnight and number of overdose fatalities. Similarly, there was a significant correlation of 0.50 at time lag zero between the highest heroin purity per fortnight and number of overdose fatalities. The correlation between range of heroin purity and number of deaths per fortnight was 0.40. A simultaneous multiple regression on scores adjusted for first order correlation indicated both the mean level of heroin purity and the range of heroin purity were independent predictors of the number of deaths per fortnight. The results indicate that the occurrence of overdose fatalities was moderately associated with both the average heroin purity and the range of heroin purity over the study period. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Trends in the incidence, severity, and short-term outcome of stroke in Perth, Western Australia

Background and Purpose-This report describes trends in the key indices of cerebrovascular disease over 6 years from the end of the 1980s in a geographically defined segment of the city of Perth, Western Australia. Methods-Identical methods were used to find and assess all cases of suspected stroke in a population of approximately 134 000 residents in a triangular area of the northern suburbs of Perth. Case fatality was measured as vital status at 28 days after the onset of symptoms. Data for first-ever strokes and for all strokes for equivalent periods of 12 months in 1989-1990 and 1995-1996 were compared by age-standardized rates and proportions and Poisson regression. Results-There were 355 strokes in 328 patients and 251 first-ever strokes (71%) for 1989-1990 and 290 events in 281 patients and 213 first-ever strokes (73%) for 1995-1996. In Poisson models including age and period, overall trends in the incidence of both first-ever strokes (rate ratio = 0.75; 95% confidence limits, 0.63, 0.90) and all strokes (rate ratio = 0.73; 95% confidence limits, 0.62, 0.85) were obviously significant, but only the changes in men were independently significant. Case fatality did not change, and the balance between hemorrhagic and occlusive strokes in 1995-1996 was almost indistinguishable from that observed in 1989-1990. Conclusions-Our results, which are the only longitudinal population-based data available for Australia for key indices of stroke, suggest that it is a change in the frequency of stroke, rather than its outcome, that is chiefly responsible nationally for the fall in mortality from cerebrovascular disease.

High HIV incidence and prevalence among young women in rural South Africa: Developing a cohort for intervention trials

Objective: To measure prevalence and model incidence of HIV infection. Setting: 2013 consecutive pregnant women attending public sector antenatal clinics in 1997 in Hlabisa health district, South Africa. Historical seroprevalence data, 1992-1995. Methods: Serum remaining from syphilis testing was tested anonymously for antibodies to HIV to determine seroprevalence. Two models, allowing for differential mortality between HIV-positive and HIV-negative people, were used. The first used serial seroprevalence data to estimate trends in annual incidence. The second, a maximum likelihood model, took account of changing force of infection and age-dependent risk of infection, to estimate age-specific HIV incidence in 1997. Multiple logistic regression provided adjusted odds ratios (OR) for risk factors for prevalent HIV infection. Results: Estimated annual HIV incidence increased from 4% in 1992/1993 to 10% in 1996/1997. In 1997, highest age-specific incidence was 16% among women aged between 20 and 24 years. in 1997, overall prevalence was 26% (95% confidence interval [CI], 24%-28%) and at 34% was highest among women aged between 20 and 24 years. Young age (<30 years; odds ratio [OR], 2.1; p = .001), unmarried status (OR 2.2; p = .001) and living in less remote parts of the district (OR 1.5; p = .002) were associated with HIV prevalence in univariate analysis. Associations were less strong in multivariate analysis. Partner's migration status was not associated with HIV infection. Substantial heterogeneity of HIV prevalence by clinic was observed (range 17%-31%; test for trend, p = .001). Conclusions: This community is experiencing an explosive HIV epidemic. Young, single women in the more developed parts of the district would form an appropriate cohort to test, and benefit from, interventions such as vaginal microbicides and HIV vaccines.

A model for predicting the future incidence of coronary heart disease within percentiles of coronary heart disease risk

Background We present a method (The CHD Prevention Model) for modelling the incidence of fatal and nonfatal coronary heart disease (CHD) within various CHD risk percentiles of an adult population. The model provides a relatively simple tool for lifetime risk prediction for subgroups within a population. It allows an estimation of the absolute primary CHD risk in different populations and will help identify subgroups of the adult population where primary CHD prevention is most appropriate and cost-effective. Methods The CHD risk distribution within the Australian population was modelled, based on the prevalence of CHD risk, individual estimates of integrated CHD risk, and current CHD mortality rates. Predicted incidence of first fatal and nonfatal myocardial infarction within CHD risk strata of the Australian population was determined. Results Approximately 25% of CHD deaths were predicted to occur amongst those in the top 10 percentiles of integrated CHD risk, regardless of age group or gender. It was found that while all causes survival did not differ markedly between percentiles of CHD risk before the ages of around 50-60, event-free survival began visibly to differ about 5 years earlier. Conclusions The CHD Prevention Model provides a means of predicting future CHD incidence amongst various strata of integrated CHD risk within an adult population. It has significant application both in individual risk counselling and in the identification of subgroups of the population where drug therapy to reduce CHD risk is most cost-effective. J Cardiovasc Risk 8:31-37 (C) 2001 Lippincott Williams & Wilkins.

Estimating HIV incidence rates from age prevalence data in epidemic situations

We present a method of estimating HIV incidence rates in epidemic situations from data on age-specific prevalence and changes in the overall prevalence over time. The method is applied to women attending antenatal clinics in Hlabisa, a rural district of KwaZulu/Natal, South Africa, where transmission of HIV is overwhelmingly through heterosexual contact. A model which gives age-specific prevalence rates in the presence of a progressing epidemic is fitted to prevalence data for 1998 using maximum likelihood methods and used to derive the age-specific incidence. Error estimates are obtained using a Monte Carlo procedure. Although the method is quite general some simplifying assumptions are made concerning the form of the risk function and sensitivity analyses are performed to explore the importance of these assumptions. The analysis shows that in 1998 the annual incidence of infection per susceptible woman increased from 5.4 per cent (3.3-8.5 per cent; here and elsewhere ranges give 95 per cent confidence limits) at age 15 years to 24.5 per cent (20.6-29.1 per cent) at age 22 years and declined to 1.3 per cent (0.5-2.9 per cent) at age 50 years; standardized to a uniform age distribution, the overall incidence per susceptible woman aged 15 to 59 was 11.4 per cent (10.0-13.1 per cent); per women in the population it was 8.4 per cent (7.3-9.5 per cent). Standardized to the age distribution of the female population the average incidence per woman was 9.6 per cent (8.4-11.0 per cent); standardized to the age distribution of women attending antenatal clinics, it was 11.3 per cent (9.8-13.3 per cent). The estimated incidence depends on the values used for the epidemic growth rate and the AIDS related mortality. To ensure that, for this population, errors in these two parameters change the age specific estimates of the annual incidence by less than the standard deviation of the estimates of the age specific incidence, the AIDS related mortality should be known to within +/-50 per cent and the epidemic growth rate to within +/-25 per cent, both of which conditions are met. In the absence of cohort studies to measure the incidence of HIV infection directly, useful estimates of the age-specific incidence can be obtained from cross-sectional, age-specific prevalence data and repeat cross-sectional data on the overall prevalence of HIV infection. Several assumptions were made because of the lack of data but sensitivity analyses show that they are unlikely to affect the overall estimates significantly. These estimates are important in assessing the magnitude of the public health problem, for designing vaccine trials and for evaluating the impact of interventions. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The incidence of schizophrenia: A systematic review

There has been a debate on whether or not the incidence of schizophrenia varies across time and place. In order to optimise the evidence upon which this debate is based, we have undertaken a systematicsystematic review of the literature. In this paper we provide an overview of the methods of the review and a preliminary analysis of the studies identified to date. Electronic databases (Medline, Psychlnfo, Embase, LILAC) were systematically searched for articles published between January 1965 and December 2001. The search terms were: (schizo* OR psycho*)AND (incidence OR prevalence). References were also identified from review articles, reference list and by writing to authors. To date we have identified 137 papers drawn from 33 nations. 37 papers in language other than English await translation. The currently included papers have generated 1413 different items of rate information data. In order to analyze these data we have undertaken several sequential filters in order to identify (a) non-overlapping data, (b) birth cohort study versus noncohort studies, (c) overall and sex-specific rates, (d) diagnostic criteria, (e) age ranges, (f) epoch of study, and (g) data on migrant or other special interest groups. In addition, we will examine the impact of urbanicity of site, age and/or sex standardization, and quality score on the incidence rates. The various discrete incidence rates will be presented graphically and the impact of various filters on these rates will be inspected using meta-analytic techniques. The use of meta-analysis may help elucidate the epidemiological landscape with respect to the incidence of schizophrenia and aid in the generation of new hypothesis. Acknowledgements: The Stanley Medical Research Institute supported project