The modernized end-to-end forecast process for quantitative precipitation information : hydrometeorological requirements, scientific issues, and service concepts /

"January 1999."

Hydrometeorological service operations for the 1990's

Mode of access: Internet.

Kasteluun vaikuttavista hydrometeorologisista tekijöistä

Summary: On the hydrometeorological factors affecting irrigation

Formulation of a mathematical approach to regional frequency analysis

Estimation of design quantiles of hydrometeorological variables at critical locations in river basins is necessary for hydrological applications. To arrive at reliable estimates for locations (sites) where no or limited records are available, various regional frequency analysis (RFA) procedures have been developed over the past five decades. The most widely used procedure is based on index-flood approach and L-moments. It assumes that values of scale and shape parameters of frequency distribution are identical across all the sites in a homogeneous region. In real-world scenario, this assumption may not be valid even if a region is statistically homogeneous. To address this issue, a novel mathematical approach is proposed. It involves (i) identification of an appropriate frequency distribution to fit the random variable being analyzed for homogeneous region, (ii) use of a proposed transformation mechanism to map observations of the variable from original space to a dimensionless space where the form of distribution does not change, and variation in values of its parameters is minimal across sites, (iii) construction of a growth curve in the dimensionless space, and (iv) mapping the curve to the original space for the target site by applying inverse transformation to arrive at required quantile(s) for the site. Effectiveness of the proposed approach (PA) in predicting quantiles for ungauged sites is demonstrated through Monte Carlo simulation experiments considering five frequency distributions that are widely used in RFA, and by case study on watersheds in conterminous United States. Results indicate that the PA outperforms methods based on index-flood approach.

Delineation of homogeneous temperature regions: a two-stage clustering approach

Homogeneous temperature regions are necessary for use in hydrometeorological studies. The regions are often delineated by analysing statistics derived from time series of maximum, minimum or mean temperature, rather than attributes influencing temperature. This practice cannot yield meaningful regions in data-sparse areas. Further, independent validation of the delineated regions for homogeneity in temperature is not possible, as temperature records form the basis to arrive at the regions. To address these issues, a two-stage clustering approach is proposed in this study to delineate homogeneous temperature regions. First stage of the approach involves (1) determining correlation structure between observed temperature over the study area and possible predictors (large-scale atmospheric variables) influencing the temperature and (2) using the correlation structure as the basis to delineate sites in the study area into clusters. Second stage of the approach involves analysis on each of the clusters to (1) identify potential predictors (large-scale atmospheric variables) influencing temperature at sites in the cluster and (2) partition the cluster into homogeneous fuzzy temperature regions using the identified potential predictors. Application of the proposed approach to India yielded 28 homogeneous regions that were demonstrated to be effective when compared to an alternate set of 6 regions that were previously delineated over the study area. Intersite cross-correlations of monthly maximum and minimum temperatures in the existing regions were found to be weak and negative for several months, which is undesirable. This problem was not found in the case of regions delineated using the proposed approach. Utility of the proposed regions in arriving at estimates of potential evapotranspiration for ungauged locations in the study area is demonstrated.

Proceedings of the 1998 Science Board Symposium on The Impacts of the 1997/98 El Niño Event on the North Pacific Ocean and Its Marginal Seas

Preface [pdf, 0.01 Mb] James J. O'Brien The big picture - The ENSO of 1997-98 [pdf, 0.01 Mb] James E. Overland, Nicholas A. Bond & Jennifer Miletta Adams Atmospheric anomalies in 1997: Links to ENSO? [pdf, 0.54 Mb] Vladimir I. Ponomarev, Olga Trusenkova, Serge Trousenkov, Dmitry Kaplunenko, Elena Ustinova & Antonina Polyakova The ENSO signal in the northwest Pacific [pdf, 0.47 Mb] Robert L. Smith, A. Huyer, P.M. Kosro & J.A. Barth Observations of El Niño off Oregon: July 1997 to present (October 1998) [pdf, 1.31 Mb] Patrica A. Wheeler & Jon Hill Biological effects of the 1997-1998 El Niño event off Oregon: Nutrient and chlorophyll distributions [pdf, 1.13 Mb] William T. Peterson Hydrography and zooplankton off the central Oregon coast during the 1997-1998 El Niño event [pdf, 0.26 Mb] William Crawford, Josef Cherniawsky, Michael Foreman & Peter Chandler El Niño sea level signal along the west coast of Canada [pdf, 1.25 Mb] Howard J. Freeland & Rick Thomson The El Niño signal along the west coast of Canada - temperature, salinity and velocity [pdf, 0.49 Mb] Frank A. Whitney, David L. Mackas, David W. Welch & Marie Robert Impact of the 1990s El Niños on nutrient supply and productivity of Gulf of Alaska waters [pdf, 0.06 Mb] Craig McNeil, David Farmer & Mark Trevorrow Dissolved gas measurements at Stn. P4 during the 97-98 El Niño [pdf, 0.13 Mb] Kristen L.D. Milligan, Colin D. Levings & Robert E. DeWreede Data compilation and preliminary time series analysis of abundance of a dominant intertidal kelp species in relation to the 1997/1998 El Niño event [pdf, 0.05 Mb] S.M. McKinnell, C.C. Wood, M. Lapointe, J.C. Woodey, K.E. Kostow, J. Nelson & K.D. Hyatt Reviewing the evidence that adult sockeye salmon strayed from the Fraser River and spawned in other rivers in 1997 [pdf,0.03 Mb] G.A. McFarlane & R.J. Beamish Sardines return to British Columbia waters [pdf, 0.34 Mb] Ken H. Morgan Impact of the 1997/98 El Niño on seabirds of the northeast Pacific [pdf, 0.06 Mb] Thomas C. Royer & Thomas Weingartner Coastal hydrographic responses in the northern Gulf of Alaska to the 1997-98 ENSO event [pdf, 0.76 Mb] John F. Piatt, Gary Drew, Thomas Van Pelt, Alisa Abookire, April Nielsen, Mike Shultz & Alexander Kitaysky Biological effects of the 1997/98 ENSO in Cook Inlet, Alaska [pdf, 0.22 Mb] H.J. Niebauer The 1997-98 El Niño in the Bering Sea as compared with previous ENSO events and the "regime shift" of the late 1970s [pdf, 0.10 Mb] A.S. Krovnin, G.P. Nanyushin, M.Yu. Kruzhalov, G.V. Khen, M.A. Bogdanov, E.I. Ustinova, V.V. Maslennikov, A.M. Orlov, B.N. Kotenev, V.V. Bulanov & G.P. Muriy The state of the Far East seas during the 1997/98 El Niño event [pdf, 0.15 Mb] Stacy Smith & Susan Henrichs Phytoplankton collected by a time-series sediment trap deployed in the southeast Bering Sea during 1997 [pdf, 0.21 Mb] Cynthia T. Tynan Redistributions of cetaceans in the southeast Bering Sea relative to anomalous oceanographic conditions during the 1997 El Niño [pdf, 0.02 Mb] Akihiko Yatsu, Junta Mori, Hiroyuki Tanaka, Tomowo Watanabe, Kazuya Nagasawa, Yikimasa Ishida, Toshimi Meguro, Yoshihiko Kamei & Yasunori Sakurai Stock abundance and size compositions of the neon flying squid in the central North Pacific Ocean during 1979-1998 [pdf, 0.11 Mb] O.B. Feschenko A new point of view concerning the El Niño mechanism [pdf, 0.01 Mb] Nathan Mantua 97/98 Ocean climate variability in the northeast Pacific: How much blame does El Niño deserve? [pdf, 0.01 Mb] Vadim P. Pavlychev Sharp changes of hydrometeorological conditions in the northwestern Pacific during the 1997/1998 El Niño event [pdf, 0.01 Mb] Jingyi Wang Predictability and forecast verification of El Niño events [pdf, 0.01 Mb] (Document contains 110 pages)

Features of wave field, its effect to erosion - deposition processes in the Cua Dai (Hoi An), Cai river mouth (Nha Trang) and Phan Thiet Bay in typical local wind conditions

Based on the hydrodynamic model and Shore Protection Manual (CERC - USA) we have calculated wave field characteristics in the typical wind conditions (wind velocity equal to 13m/s in the high frequency direction of the wind regime). Comparison between measured and calculated wave parameters was presented and these results were corresponded to each other. The following main wave characteristics were calculated: -Pattern of the refraction wave field. -Average wave height field. -Longshore current velocity field in surf zone. From distribution features of wave field characteristics in research areas, it could be summarized as following: - The formation of wave fields in the research areas was unequal because of their local difference of hydrometeorological conditions, river discharge, bottom relief… - At Cuadai (Dai mouth, Hoian) area in the N direction of incident wave field, wave has caused serious variation of the coastline. The coastline in the whole region, especially, at the south of the mouth was eroded and the foreland in the north of the mouth was deposited. - At Cai river mouth (Nhatrang) area in the E direction of incident wave field, wave has effected strongly and directly to the inshore and channel structure. - At Phanthiet bay area in the SW direction of incident wave field, wave has effected strongly to the whole shoreline from Da point to Ne point and caused serious erosion.

滑坡和泥石流致灾条件叠合技术及风险分析-以川藏公路然乌至鲁朗段为例

As one part of national road No. 318, Sichuan-Tibet (Chengdu-Lasha) Highway is one of traffic life lines connecting Tibet municipality to the inland, which is very important to the economic development of Tibet. In addition, it is still an important national defence routeway, with extremely important strategic position on maintaining the stability and solidarity of Tibet municipality and consolidating national defence. Particular geological condition, terrain and landform condition and hydrometeorological condition induce large-scale debris flows and landslides (including landslips) and the like geological hazards frequently occur along the highway. High frequency geological hazards not only result in high casualties and a great property loss, but also block traffic at every turn, obstructing the Sichuan-Tibet highway seriously. On the basis of considerable engineering geological investigation and analysis to the relative studying achievements of predecessors, it is found that one of the dominating reason incurring landslides or debris flows again and again in a place is that abundant loose materials are accumulated in valleys and slopes along the highway. Taking landslides' and debris flows along Ranwu-Lulang section of Sichuan-Tibet highway as studying objects, the sources and cause of formation of loose accumulation materials in the studying area are analyzed in detail, the major hazard-inducing conditions, hazard, dynamic risk, prediction of susceptibility degree of landslides and debris flows, and the relations between landslides and debris flows and various hazard-inducing conditions are systematically researched in this paper. All of these will provide scientific foundation for the future highway renovating and reducing and preventing geological hazards. For the purpose of quantitatively analyzing landslide and debris flow hazards, the conception of entropy and information entropy are extended, the conception of geological hazard entropy is brought forward, and relevant mathematics model is built. Additionally, a new approach for the dynamic risk analysis of landslide and debris flow is put forward based on the dynamic characteristics of the hazard of hazard-inducings and the vulnerability of hazard-bearings. The formation of landslide and debris flow is a non-linear process, which is synthetically affected by various factors, and whose formation mechanics is extremely complex. Aiming at this question, a muli-factors classifying and overlapping technique is brought forward on the basis of engineering geomechanics meta-synthesis (EGMS) thought and approach, and relevant mathematics model is also built to predict the susceptibility degree of landslide or debris flow. The example analysis result proves the validity of this thought and approach. To studying the problem that whether the formation and space distribution of landslides and debris flows are controlled by one or several hazard-inducing conditions, the theme graphics of landslides and debris flows hazard and various hazard-inducing conditions are overlapped to determine the relationship between hazard and hazard-inducing conditions. On this basis, the semi-quantitative engineering zonation of the studying area is carried out. In addition, the overlapping analysis method of the hazard-indue ing conditions of landslides and debris flows based on "digital graphics system" is advanced to orderly organize and effectively manage the spatial and attributive data of hazard and hazard-inducing conditions theme graphics, and to realize the effectively combination of graphics, images and figures.

Long-term changes in the pelagos, benthos and fisheries of the North Sea

Pronounced changes have occurred in the fisheries, plankton and benthos of the North Sea over the last five decades. Attribution of the relative contribution of anthropogenic versus natural hydrometeorological modulation to these changes is still unclear. As a background a summary history of our understanding of the state of health of the North Sea is outlined. We then focus on two contrasting periods in the North Sea, one between 1978-82 (cold) and the other post 1987 (warm) when pronounced alterations in many ecosystem characteristics occurred. The scale of the changes in the second of these periods is sufficiently large and wide ranging for it to have been termed a regime shift. A combination of local, regional and far field hydrometeorological forcing, and in particular variability in oceanic inflow, is believed to be responsible for the observed changes. Finally attention is drawn to the poor status of North Sea fish stocks where 7 stocks are documented as being fished outside safe biological limits. This situation is primarily believed to be a consequence of overfishing, but may have been exacerbated by environmental change.

Plankton, fisheries and climate change - insights into ocean ecosystems

This paper examines long term changes in the plankton of the North Atlantic and northwest European shelf seas and discusses the forcing mechanisms behind some observed interannual, decadal and spatial patterns of variability with a focus on climate change. Evidence from the Continuous Plankton Records suggests that the plankton integrates hydrometeorological signals and may be used as a possible index of climate change. Changes evident in the plankton are likely to have important effects on the carrying capacity of fisheries and are of relvance to eutrophication issues and to the assessment of biodiversity. The scale of the changes seen over the past five decades emphasises the importance of maintaining existing, and establishing new, long term and wide scale monitoring programmes of the world's oceans in initiatives such as the Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS).

A Meteorological and Snow observational data set from Snoqualmie Pass (921 m), Washington Cascades, U.S.

We introduce a quality controlled observational atmospheric, snow, and soil data set from Snoqualmie Pass, Washington, U.S.A., to enable testing of hydrometeorological and snow process representations within a rain-snow transitional climate where existing observations are sparse and limited. Continuous meteorological forcing (including air temperature, total precipitation, wind speed, specific humidity, air pressure, short- and longwave irradiance) are provided at hourly intervals for a 24-year historical period (water years 1989-2012) and at half-hourly intervals for a more-recent period (water years 2013-2015), separated based on the availability of observations. Additional observations include 40-years of snow board new snow accumulation, multiple measurements of total snow depth, and manual snow pits, while more recent years include sub-daily surface temperature, snowpack drainage, soil moisture and temperature profiles, and eddy co-variance derived turbulent heat flux. This data set is ideal for testing hypotheses about energy balance, soil and snow processes in the rain-snow transition zone. Plots of live data can be found here: http://depts.washington.edu/mtnhydr/cgi/plot.cgi

Evaluation of forest snow processes models (SnowMIP2)

Thirty‐three snowpack models of varying complexity and purpose were evaluated across a wide range of hydrometeorological and forest canopy conditions at five Northern Hemisphere locations, for up to two winter snow seasons. Modeled estimates of snow water equivalent (SWE) or depth were compared to observations at forest and open sites at each location. Precipitation phase and duration of above‐freezing air temperatures are shown to be major influences on divergence and convergence of modeled estimates of the subcanopy snowpack. When models are considered collectively at all locations, comparisons with observations show that it is harder to model SWE at forested sites than open sites. There is no universal “best” model for all sites or locations, but comparison of the consistency of individual model performances relative to one another at different sites shows that there is less consistency at forest sites than open sites, and even less consistency between forest and open sites in the same year. A good performance by a model at a forest site is therefore unlikely to mean a good model performance by the same model at an open site (and vice versa). Calibration of models at forest sites provides lower errors than uncalibrated models at three out of four locations. However, benefits of calibration do not translate to subsequent years, and benefits gained by models calibrated for forest snow processes are not translated to open conditions.

Synoptic preconditions for extreme flooding during the summer Asian Monsoon in the Mumbai area

The summer monsoon season is an important hydrometeorological feature of the Indian subcontinent and it has significant socioeconomic impacts. This study is aimed at understanding the processes associated with the occurrence of catastrophic flood events. The study has two novel features that add to the existing body of knowledge about the South Asian Monsoon: 1) combine traditional hydrometeorological observations (rain gauge measurements) with unconventional data (media and state historical records of reported flooding) to produce value-added century-long time-series of potential flood events, and 2) identify the larger regional synoptic conditions leading to days with flood potential in the time-series. The promise of mining unconventional data to extend hydrometeorological records is demonstrated in this study. The synoptic evolution of flooding events in the western-central coast of India and the densely populated Mumbai area are shown to correspond to active monsoon periods with embedded low-pressure centers and have far upstream influence from the western edge of the Indian Ocean basin. The coastal processes along the Arabian Peninsula where the currents interact with the continental shelf are found to be key features of extremes during the South Asian Monsoon

Forecasters priorities for improving probabilistic flood forecasts.

Hydrological ensemble prediction systems (HEPS) have in recent years been increasingly used for the operational forecasting of floods by European hydrometeorological agencies. The most obvious advantage of HEPS is that more of the uncertainty in the modelling system can be assessed. In addition, ensemble prediction systems generally have better skill than deterministic systems both in the terms of the mean forecast performance and the potential forecasting of extreme events. Research efforts have so far mostly been devoted to the improvement of the physical and technical aspects of the model systems, such as increased resolution in time and space and better description of physical processes. Developments like these are certainly needed; however, in this paper we argue that there are other areas of HEPS that need urgent attention. This was also the result from a group exercise and a survey conducted to operational forecasters within the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) to identify the top priorities of improvement regarding their own system. They turned out to span a range of areas, the most popular being to include verification of an assessment of past forecast performance, a multi-model approach for hydrological modelling, to increase the forecast skill on the medium range (>3 days) and more focus on education and training on the interpretation of forecasts. In light of limited resources, we suggest a simple model to classify the identified priorities in terms of their cost and complexity to decide in which order to tackle them. This model is then used to create an action plan of short-, medium- and long-term research priorities with the ultimate goal of an optimal improvement of EFAS in particular and to spur the development of operational HEPS in general.