Exploring the effect of political risks in large infrastructure projects in politically unstable countries using a probabilistic modelling approach

This research aims to explore and identify political risks on a large infrastructure project in an exaggerated environment to ascertain whether sufficient objective information can be gathered by project managers to utilise risk modelling techniques. During the study, the author proposes a new definition of political risk; performs a detailed project study of the Neelum Jhelum Hydroelectric Project in Pakistan; implements a probabilistic model using the principle of decomposition and Bayes probabilistic theorem and answers the question: was it possible for project managers to obtain all the relevant objective data to implement a probabilistic model?

Evaluación de veinte lineas de sorgo (Sorghum bicolor (L) Moench) por su reacción a enfermedades en tres localidades de Nicaragua, postrera 2003

Para contribuir a resolver la problemática varietal en el país, se han sumado esfuerzos en evaluar líneas de sorgo por lo que se realizó un experimento en diferentes zonas productoras de sorgo en Nicaragua utilizando un vivero de líneas para evaluar plagas y enfermedades ADIN (All Diseases and Insect Nursery), facilitado por el Dr. Larry E. Claflin, fitopatológo de la Universidad del Estado Kansas (KSU), mediante el programa INTSORMIL (International Sorghum and Millet Project. El estudio se desarrolló de agosto a diciembre del 2003. Se utilizó, parcelas experimentales de 5 m. lineales con un área total de 75 m2 con dos repeticiones en cada localidad; Centro Nacional de Investigaciones Agropecuarias-Instituto Nicaragüense de Tecnología Agropecuaria, (CNIA–INTA), Managua; Tisma, Masaya y Ranchería, Chinandega. Entre las variables estudiadas se evaluó severidad de enfermedades foliares, severidad de mohos en panoja y rendimiento de grano. Para la evaluación de las enfermedades se utilizó una escala de daño que incluye valores de 0 %-100 % de severidad propuesta por (Frederiksen, 2000); modificada por (Pichardo, 2001). Los datos colectados fueron procesados y sometidos aun ANDEVA, y separación de medias utilizando la prueba de Tukey (α=0.05). Se realizó análisis de regresi ón lineal para determinar el rendimiento predictivo por localidad y líneas. Los resultados obtenidos mostraron que existen diferencias estadísticas entre las líneas para las tres localidades. Las líneas evaluadas en Ranchería presentaron los menores niveles o valores de severidad de en fermedades (7-21 %); valores intermedios (15-39%) las líneas evaluadas en Tisma y los más altos valores (39-58 %) las líneas evaluadas en el CNIA–INTA. Las enfermedades presentes en el estudio fueron: mancha gris de la hoja causada por Cercospora sorghi, Ellis & Everth, antracnosis causada por Colletotrichum graminicola G. W. Wilson y mancha zonada de la hoja causada por Gloeocercospora sorghi D. Bain & Edgerton ex Deighton. Los mayores rendimientos fueron obtenidos por la línea Sureño con 9 037.31, 5 296.57 y 3 566.18 kg ha-1 en CNIA-INTA, Tisma y Ranchería respectivamente; y los menores rendimientos por BLD6(w+y) en CNIA-INTA, con 1 184 kg ha-1, B.9955 en Tisma, con 870.53 kg ha-1 y en Ranchería la línea 98BRON122 con 1 352.55 kg ha -1.

Floating islands: a unique fish aggregating method

A fish aggregating device made of aquatic weeds and grass (Phoom) is used in Loktak lake in the northeastern region of India. It has been used successfully in this very productive fishery for centuries. Today, the fishery itself is under pressure from overexploitation, soil erosion leading to siltation and a hydroelectric project that has blocked the migratory route of the fish that used the lake as a breeding ground.

Comparison between empirical formulae of intake vortices

The hydrodynamic properties of free surface vortices at hydraulic intakes were investigated. Based on the axisymmetric Navier-Stokes equations and empirical assumptions, two sets of formulations for the velocity distributions and the free surface profiles are proposed and validated against measurements available in the literature. Compared with previous formulae, the modifications based on Mih's formula are found to greatly improve the agreement with the experimental data. Physical model tests were also conducted to study the intake vortex of the Xiluodu hydroelectric project in China. The proposed velocity distribution formula was applied to the solid boundary as considered by the method of images. A good agreement was again observed between the prediction and the measurements. © 2011 International Association for Hydro-Environment Engineering and Research.

Effect of thermal pollution on the hydrological parameters of River Jhelum (J & K)

The Buniyar hydroelectric project and the lower Jhelum Barrier at Gantamulla constructed across river Jhelum are in operation from several years. The two power stations have changed the hydrological features of the area where dam is situated. Therefore, the impact of hydroelectric projects on fishery resources of river Jhelum is a matter of great concern. The treated water from the power house is released through turbines, having cooling effect on them. The change in the hydrological parameters such as increase in temperature, depletion of oxygen etc. might have brought fishes under stress which is the main cause in decreased population of finfishes from site to site. The golden mahseer, Tor putitora which was once an abundant species in river Jhelum has disappeared due to human intervention. The prevailing water quality around hydroelectric projects is unsuitable for finfishes of river Jhelum.

Mitochondrial DNA variation, effective female population size and population history of the endangered Chinese sturgeon, Acipenser sinensis

The anadromous Chinese sturgeon (Acipenser sinensis), mainly endemic to the Yangtze River in China, is an endangered fish species. The natural population has declined since the Gezhouba Dam blocked its migratory route to the spawning grounds in 1981. In the near future, the completion of the Three Gorges Dam, the world's largest hydroelectric project, may further impact this species by altering the water flow of the Yangtze River. Little is currently known about the population genetic structure of the Chinese sturgeon. In this study, DNA sequence data were determined from the control region (D-loop) of the mitochondrial genome of adult sturgeons (n = 106) that were collected between 1995-2000. The molecular data were used to investigate genetic variation, effective female population size and population history of the Chinese sturgeon in the Yangtze River. Our results indicate that the reduction in abundance did not change genetic variation of the Chinese sturgeon, and that the population underwent an expansion in the past. AMOVA analysis indicated that 98.7% of the genetic variability occurred within each year's spawning populations, the year of collection had little influence on the diversity of annual temporary samples. The relative large effective female population size (N-ef) indicates that good potential exists for the recovery of this species in the future. Strikingly, the ratio of N-ef to the census female population size (N-f) is unusually high (0.77-0.93). This may be the result of a current bottleneck in the population of the Chinese sturgeon that is likely caused by human intervention.

层状反倾向结构岩质边坡变形机理及稳定性研究

Toppling is a major failure model in anti-dip layered rock slopes. Because of the limited by testing means and experimental apparatus, present research on the deformation mechanism and stability analysis are mainly focus on the 2-Dimensional deformation, and the research really based on 3-Dimension is still limited. Therefore, based on the present research station, the article rely on the important hydroelectric project of typical anti-dip layered rock slopes -- The left bank slope of Long-tan hydropower-station in Guang Xi, China, and focused on the influencing factors, deformation mechanism and stability analysis of anti-dip layered rock slopes, three problems as follows are researched in this paper. (1) Deformation influencing factor analysis on ant-dip layered rock slopes Three influencing factors are included: geological factor, engineering factor and environmental factor. It is concluded that the toppling deformation of anti-dip layered rock slopes are more sensitive to geological and engineering factors, but less sensitive to environmental factor. In addition, the sensitivity of various factors to the rock toppling deformation is also arranged sequentially as follows: construction, gravitation, rainfall (underground water) and rock structure intensity, etc. (2) 3D deformation study on the anti-dip layered toppling rock slopes Used 3D Distinct Element Method (3DEC) analyzed the 3D deformation characteristic of anti-dip layered rock slops. It can be seen that the toppling characteristics are obvious when the inter-angle between slope direction and layer striking direction is under 20o, when the inter-angle is over 20o and equal or less than 40o，the toppling deformation characteristics decrease sharply with increase of inter-angle, when the inter-angle is over 40o , the slope deformation is not controlled by joints but influenced by other failure mode. Therefore, in order to quantify the toppling characteristics, a differential value of displacement vector angle between layered rock slope and block rock slope is proposed as a key index to distinguish failure model for anti-dip layered rock slopes, and it was applied to study the toppling of the rock slopes at Guangxi Long-tan hydropower station, China. The results indicated that the index was effective and instructive for analyzing the anti-dip layered rock slopes. (3) Stability analysis methods Because of the imperfection of some present slope analysis methods, based on slope failure mode and those three influencing factors, “slope stability entropy” method is defined in this paper, which makes good use of the sensitivity of relational matrix to influencing factors on slope stability and the qualification characteristics for information entropy to the irregularity of slope deformation. By this method, not only the randomness of geologic body on the base of dynamic analysis of slope failure mode is fully concerned, but also it makes the analysis time-saving and simple. Finally, the research findings were used to the engineering example successfully, and rational conclusion has been obtained.

Patrimonis fràgils: la fragilitat dels refugis pirinencs

Els refugis d’alta muntanya per a excursionistes i alpinistes construïts durant les primeres dècades del segle XX són, sens dubte, un dels patrimonis arquitectònics més fràgils de les comarques pirinenques. Les ruïnes del vell refugi d’Ulldeter que projectà el 1907 Jeroni Martorell per al Centre Excursionista de Catalunya (CEC) en són una prova ben punyent

PRESENTATION. Experimental and behavioral economics. Theory, tools and topics

This note presents the special issue on Experimental and Behavioral Economics. The volume includes some recent contributions from these correlated disciplines –empirical the former and theoretical the latter– and their potential contribution to the intersection of Economics with Psychology and Sociology. The project “El papel de la comparación social en las decisiones económicas bajo incertidumbre” (Junta de Andalucía, P07-SEJ-03155)” provided us with inspiration and financial support to publish this volume.

Ecology and conservation of the jacutinga Pipile jacutinga in the Atlantic Forest of Brazil

The jacutinga Pipile jacutinga was formerly one of the most abundant game bird cracids in the Atlantic forest of Brazil. Nowadays this species is vulnerable to extinction due to hunting and habitat loss. The ecology of the jacutinga was studied at Parque Estadual Intervales, Sao Paulo, Brazil from October 1993 to December 1995 and in adjacent areas. Jacutingas were observed to feed mainly on the sugar-rich fruit of 41 species. We recorded a low index of abundance for the jacutinga (0.018) or c.1.7 birds/km2 at Intervales, one of the best protected areas within their range. Surveys carried out in the Atlantic forest of Sao Paulo found jacutinga populations in 14 localities. Probably < 1500 birds survive in the best protected areas. The species' stronghold in southeastern Brazil is in the mountains of Serra de Paranapiacaba, an area protected by several parks suffering from hunting and palm heart harvesting and threatened by a hydroelectric project.

Indicadores de sustentabilidade para o município de Altamira-Pará: uma aplicação do barômetro da sustentabilidade

Analisa através de indicadores, o cenário referente ao desenvolvimento sustentável do município de Altamira-PA. O empreendimento hidrelétrico de Belo Monte já produz transformações de ordem ambiental, social e econômica. Como forma de se operacionalizar o conceito de desenvolvimento sustentável tem surgidos diversas metodologias que permitem identificar processos e tendências; estabelecer comparações entre nações e localidades; indicar prioridades para a formulação, monitoramento e avaliação de políticas públicas, colaborando assim para descrição e análise de uma determinada realidade. Dessa forma, a partir de questões norteadoras procedentes do diagnóstico participativo da Agenda 21 Local de Altamira, foram selecionados indicadores e aplicada a metodologia Barômetro da Sustentabilidade. O resultado, com base em uma escala de desempenho que reuniu todos os municípios do Estado do Pará, determinou seu grau de sustentabilidade como “regular” constatando que o município precisa desenvolver e priorizar políticas públicas nas áreas de moradia, saneamento básico e iniciativas de geração de renda. Entende-se que esta pesquisa pode fornecer subsídios ao poder público, no que se refere à tomada de decisão necessária a elaboração de ações e práticas mais sustentáveis.

Desenvolvimento e socioambientalismo: uma análise do discurso jornalístico de O Liberal e Diário do Pará sobre a Usina Hidrelétrica de Belo Monte

O debate em torno da viabilidade da construção da Usina Hidrelétrica de Belo Monte, na região Xingu do estado do Pará, voltou a ocupar as páginas de dois principais jornais paraenses, O Liberal e Diário do Pará, após 30 anos de criação do projeto pelo governo federal brasileiro. No período de 1º/05/2009 a 30/09/2010, as publicações reconstituíram o ambiente de embate instaurado entre diversos agentes e instituições sociais a respeito do empreendimento hidrelétrico, com a publicação de 475 textos jornalísticos sobre o tema, entre editoriais, entrevistas, artigos, notas, manchetes, notícias factuais e reportagens. Para compreender o processo comunicativo/discursivo de produção e reiteração de sentidos materializados nos textos jornalísticos dos periódicos, optou-se pela metodologia de análise do discurso de vertente francesa, com atenção para as relações existentes entre comunicação e discurso, as formações discursivas presentes nas matérias, assim como a manifestação da interdiscursividade. Como resultado da análise, exemplificada com a apresentação de seqüências discursivas de 32 textos selecionados do corpus principal e divididos em subtemáticas, constata-se a predominância do discurso desenvolvimentista em detrimento do socioambiental, apresentando fortes vínculos com outros discursos já proferidos sobre a Amazônia, esta ainda vista como um local repleto de riquezas a serem exploradas para atender aos interesses externos à região. Percebe-se também a valorização das declarações de fontes oficiais e de representantes de ONGs preservacionistas, artistas e pesquisadores, sendo que os Povos da Floresta permanecem em um plano de visibilidade inferior na reconstrução da polêmica sobre a Usina de Belo Monte.

A universidade no contexto internacional: o relações públicas como mediador intercultural no projeto Brasil de Todo Mundo

The following dissertation aims to propose an institutional and intercultural projecy of reception and integration of foreign students from academic mobility programs for the campus unit of Bauru. Such action is necessary because of the absence of a reception program of these students, the reception and integration into the social and cultural reality of the place in which they live is a fundamental part of international experience. As an example for this institutional proposal, we discuss the extension of project experience Brasil de Todo Mundo, which aims to deepen the reflections on the Brazilian cultural universe for foreign students who are in Brazil over a period, while taking academic mobility in the Universidade Estadual Paulista, Bauru campus. Student leadership project, Brasil de Todo Mundo emerged from the international experience in mobility programs offered by UNESP, from students of campus Bauru, when in the back of their experiences, they realized that they could continue being tourists your own country with the reception of foreign students. In addition, the identification of expectations in social and intercultural skills, in addition to reasons connected with the increase academic and language skills are a form of very strong approach, which helps in creating intercultural dialogue spaces between the students, the main objective of the project

Atendimento psicoterapêutico para crianças vítimas de violência sexual: projeto Sarauzinho

This experiment report refers to the project named “Sarauzinho”, which is linked to the extension “Workshops of Psychoanalysis and Artistics Gatherings” project. “Sarauzinho” was a partnership between UNESP and CREAS, created with the aim to assist children victims of sexual violence though a playful and artistic method and to implement a psychoanalytic listening of demands that appeared during the working group implementation. At the same time, the parents/responsible person who took the children to the meetings also received psychotherapeutic service at the waiting room, in an operative group format with psychoanalytic listening. The project has happened in 11 sessions (once a week, two hours each), with 4 kids and 4 caregivers participating. The service for the kids was organized in workshop models (open and free) and in little gatherings, with preprogrammed contents (playful and artistic). The initiative was inspired by the “Green houses”, a creation of the French psychoanalyst Françoise Dolto, and by the Museum “Imagens do Inconsciente do Centro Psiquiátrico Pedro II”, in Nise da Silveira, Rio de Janeiro city. This university extension activity has enabled the students to access some of the children’s traumas, as well as to obtain a better understanding of an infantile group psychotherapeutic service, with psychoanalytic listening. Besides, it has provided a playful and artistic environment to listen to the children and enable them to create new meanings of their traumas. For the adult participants, the meetings were moments to talk about their anxieties and to receive new guidance and instructions about their children’s education, especially about sexuality. The results, either related to the children’s meeting, as to the adult’s meeting, were favorable to the continuity of the project.

Simulation of the Impact of Dams and Fishing Weirs on Reproductive Potential of Silver-Phase American Eels in the Kennebec River Basin, Maine

I modeled the cumulative impact of hydroelectric projects with and without commercial fishing weirs and water-control dams on the production, survival to the sea, and potential fecundity of migrating female silver-phase American eels, Anguilla rostrata in the Kennebec River basin, Maine, This river basin has 22 hydroelectric projects, 73 water-control dams, and 15 commercial fishing weir sites. The modeled area included an 8,324 km(2) segment of the drainage area between Merrymeeting Bay and the upper limit of American eel distribution in the basin. One set of input,, (assumed or real values) concerned population structure (Le., population density and sex ratio changes throughout the basin, female length-class distribution, and drainage area between dams), Another set concerned factors influencing survival and potential fecundity of migrating American eels (i.e., pathway sequences through projects, survival rate per project by length-class. and length-fecundity relationship). Under baseline conditions about 402,400 simulated silver female American eels would be produced annually reductions in their numbers due to dams and weirs would reduce the realized fecundity (i.e., the number of eggs produced by all females that survived the migration). Without weirs or water-control dams, about 63% of the simulated silverphase American eels survived their freshwater spawning migration run to the sea when the survival rate at each hydroelectric dam was 9017, 40% survived at 80% survival per dam, and 18% survived at 60% survival per dam. Removing the lowermost hydroelectric dam on the Kennebec River increased survival by 6.0-7.6% for the basin. The efficient commercial weirs reduced survival to the sea to 69-76%( of what it would have been without weirs', regardless of survival rates at hydroelectric dams. Water-control dams had little impact on production in this basin because most were located in the upper reaches of tributaries. Sensitivity analysis led to the conclusion that small changes in population density and female length distribution had greater effects on survival and realized fecundity than similar changes in turbine survival rate. The latter became more important as turbine survival rate decreased. Therefore, it might be more fruitful to determine population distribution in basins of interest than to determine mortality rate at each hydroelectric project.