Challenges of operational river forecasting

Skillful and timely streamflow forecasts are critically important to water managers and emergency protection services. To provide these forecasts, hydrologists must predict the behavior of complex coupled human–natural systems using incomplete and uncertain information and imperfect models. Moreover, operational predictions often integrate anecdotal information and unmodeled factors. Forecasting agencies face four key challenges: 1) making the most of available data, 2) making accurate predictions using models, 3) turning hydrometeorological forecasts into effective warnings, and 4) administering an operational service. Each challenge presents a variety of research opportunities, including the development of automated quality-control algorithms for the myriad of data used in operational streamflow forecasts, data assimilation, and ensemble forecasting techniques that allow for forecaster input, methods for using human-generated weather forecasts quantitatively, and quantification of human interference in the hydrologic cycle. Furthermore, much can be done to improve the communication of probabilistic forecasts and to design a forecasting paradigm that effectively combines increasingly sophisticated forecasting technology with subjective forecaster expertise. These areas are described in detail to share a real-world perspective and focus for ongoing research endeavors.

Simultaneous mobile sink allocation in home environments with applications in mobile consumer robotics

This paper presents a novel mobile sink area allocation scheme for consumer based mobile robotic devices with a proven application to robotic vacuum cleaners. In the home or office environment, rooms are physically separated by walls and an automated robotic cleaner cannot make a decision about which room to move to and perform the cleaning task. Likewise, state of the art cleaning robots do not move to other rooms without direct human interference. In a smart home monitoring system, sensor nodes may be deployed to monitor each separate room. In this work, a quad tree based data gathering scheme is proposed whereby the mobile sink physically moves through every room and logically links all separated sub-networks together. The proposed scheme sequentially collects data from the monitoring environment and transmits the information back to a base station. According to the sensor nodes information, the base station can command a cleaning robot to move to a specific location in the home environment. The quad tree based data gathering scheme minimizes the data gathering tour length and time through the efficient allocation of data gathering areas. A calculated shortest path data gathering tour can efficiently be allocated to the robotic cleaner to complete the cleaning task within a minimum time period. Simulation results show that the proposed scheme can effectively allocate and control the cleaning area to the robot vacuum cleaner without any direct interference from the consumer. The performance of the proposed scheme is then validated with a set of practical sequential data gathering tours in a typical office/home environment.

Avaliação da atividade turística sobre a composição e a distribuição das macroalgas marinhas nos recifes de Pirangi (Rio Grande do Norte, Brasil)

The reef area of Pirangi beach has been experiencing antropogenic actions, mainly due to tourism activity. In order to evaluate these effects, surveys on seaweeds were conducted at nine stations located over the fringing reef. Benthic community (seaweeds/corals) were identified using the photoquadrat method, with 50 meters random transects located paralleled to the coast. The general categories evaluated in each transect were: rock, sand, seaweeds, corals and mollusks. Data achieved were processed at Coral Point Count with Excel Extensions software. A total of 30 seaweed species, 5 coral species and 1 mollusk species were identified. There was a high dominance of short algae at stations with high tourism pressure, whereas frondose algae usually occurred at places without human interference. Seaweeds with the highest percent cover were composed by Sargassum vulgare (59%), Caulerpa racemosa (47%) and Dictyopteris delicatula (33%). Cluster analyses considering benthic organisms revealed five benthic features: (1) submersed area characterized by a diversified marine flora; (2) area with dominance of Caulerpa racemosa and presence of Millepora alcicornis; (3) area with high cover of Sargassum vulgare; (4) trampling area characterized by bare rocks, short algae and Zoanthus sociatus and (5) area with high coverage of Palythoa caribaeroum. Obtained data suggest that the studied area has been damaged by tourism activities. Furthermore, observed differences in algal communities may be a good indicator of ecosystem health of Pirangi reefs

Avaliação da produção de sedimento na bacia hidrográfica do rio Potengi através do modelo SWAT

Anthropic disturbances in watersheds, such as inappropriate building development, disorderly land occupation and unplanned land use, may strengthen the sediment yield and the inflow into the estuary, leading to siltation, changes in the reach channel conformation, and ecosystem/water quality problems. Faced with such context, this study aims to assess the applicability of SWAT model to estimate, even in a preliminary way, the sediment yield distribution along the Potengi River watershed, as well as its contribution to the estuary. Furthermore, an assessment of its erosion susceptibility was used for comparison. The susceptibility map was developed by overlaying rainfall erosivity, soil erodibility, the slope of the terrain and land cover. In order to overlap these maps, a multi-criteria analysis through AHP method was applied. The SWAT was run using a five year period (1997-2001), considering three different scenarios based on different sorts of human interference: a) agriculture; b) pasture; and c) no interference (background). Results were analyzed in terms of surface runoff, sediment yield and their propagation along each river section, so that it was possible to find that the regions in the extreme west of the watershed and in the downstream portions returned higher values of sediment yield, reaching respectively 2.8 e 5.1 ton/ha.year, whereas central areas, which were less susceptible, returned the lowest values, never more than 0.7 ton/ha.ano. It was also noticed that in the west sub-watersheds, where one can observe the headwaters, sediment yield was naturally forced by high declivity and weak soils. In another hand, results suggest that the eastern part would not contribute to the sediment inflow into the estuary in a significant way, and the larger part of the sediment yield in that place is due to anthropic activities. For the central region, the analysis of sediment propagation indicates deposition predominance in opposition to transport. Thus, it s not expected that isolated rain storms occurring in the upstream river portions would significantly provide the estuary with sediment. Because the model calibration process hasn t been done yet, it becomes essential to emphasize that values presented here as results should not be applied for pratical aims. Even so, this work warns about the risks of a growth in the alteration of natural land cover, mainly in areas closer to the headwaters and in the downstream Potengi River

caracterização in situ e estrutura genética de populações de Gossypium mustelinum

Gossypium mustelinum Miers ex Watt is the only cotton species native from Brazil. It is endemic of the semi-arid region from North-east of the country, where it occur near from resilient water sources. The threats to the in situ conservation of the populations are caused by human interference in its habitat, mainly by excessive cattle graze and deforestation. Establish efficient strategies of in situ conservation depend on the accomplishment of a diagnosis of how the specie is found in its natural environment, and the knowledge about the genetic structure of the populations. The objectives of this work were i) to determine the in situ conditions of two populations present in rivers from basin of Rio Paraguaçu at the Bahia State, ii) to evaluate the structure and genetic variability presented in both populations, iii) to establish in situ and ex situ conservation strategies. It were realized collection in november 2007, when was realized in situ characterization of G. mustelinum. SSR markers were used for analyze 218 genotypes deriving from two populations of the G. mustelinum, localized at Tocó river and the Capivara river. The allelic frequencies, the heterozigosity and the F statics were estimated. All the plants were classified as wild and natives, and there was no evidence of the use the plants or its parts. The populations showed different conservation conditions in situ. Few plantlets were found in sites with excessive cattle feed, an indication that the damages in young plants should be high enough to compromise the renovation of the populations. On the other hand, populations were well preserved when the anthropic damages was low or inexistent. The 14 SSR primer pairs amplified 17 loci with a medium number of 5 alleles per locus (a total of 85 alleles). The high level of endogamy estimated (FIS=0,808) and the low observed heterozygosity (H0=0,093) were indicatives that the populations reproduce mainly by selfing, geitonogamy and crosses between related individuals. The genetic diversity was high (HE=0,482) and the differentiation between the populations was very high (FST=0,328). At least two sites from both populations of G. mustelinum must be preserved to achieve suitable in situ conservation. Actions that preserve the gallery forest and keep the cattle away should implemented, and could be as simple as erecting a fence. It is not possible anticipated if the in situ preservation will be possible. Therefore collections and ex situ preservation of representative specimens are essential to conserve the genetic diversity of native G. mustelinum

Sistemas computacionais espaço-temporais para toma de decisão em questões ambientais relacionadas à indústria de petróleo e gás

The area between São Bento do Norte and Macau cities, located in the northern coast of the Rio Grande do Norte State is submitted to intense and constant processes of littoral and aeolian transport, causing erosion, alterations in the sediments balance and modifications in the shoreline. Beyond these natural factors, the human interference is huge in the surroundings, composed by sensitive places, due to the existence of the Guamaré Petroliferous Pole, RN, the greater terrestrial oil producing in Brazil, besides the activities of the salt companies and shrimp farms. This socioeconomic-environmental context justifies the elaboration of strategies of environmental monitoring of that coastal area. In the environmental monitoring of coastal strips, submitted to human impacts, the use of multi-sources and multitemporal data integrated through a Spatio- Temporal Database that allows the multiuser friendly access. The objective was to use the potential of the computational systems as important tools the managers of environmental monitoring. The stored data in the form of a virtual library aid in making decisions from the related results and presented in different formats. This procedure enlarges the use of the data in the preventive attendance, in the planning of future actions and in the definition of new lines of researches on the area, in a multiscale approach. Another activity of this Thesis consisted on the development of a computational system to automate the process to elaborate Oil-Spill Environmental Sensitivity Maps, based on the temporal variations that some coastal ecosystems present in the sensibility to the oil. The maps generated in this way, based on the methodology proposed by the Ministério do Meio Ambiente, supply more updated information about the behavior of the ecosystem, as a support to the operations in case of oil spill. Some parameters, such as the hydrodynamic data, the declivity of the beach face, types of resources in risk (environmental, economical, human or cultural) and use and occupation of the area are some of the essential basic information in the elaboration of the sensitivity maps, which suffer temporal alterations.In this way, the two computational systems developed are considered support systems to the decision, because they provide operational subsidies to the environmental monitoring of the coastal areas, considering the transformations in the behavior of coastal elements resulting from temporal changes related the human and/or natural interference of the environment

Análise de uso e cobertura do solo no município de Parelhas/RN

The human interference in the semiarid region of Seridó Potiguar has promoted the increase of degraded areas. The economic dynamic that was established in the Seridó territory, especially after the fall of the trinomial cattle-cotton-mining in the 70s and 80s of the 20th century as pillars of the regional economy, resulted in an accelerated process of erosion of natural resources. The municipalities of the Seridó region have been spatially reordered by this new economic dynamic, marked by the growth of existing enterprises, and the development of new agricultural practices. One of the municipalities in the region that restructured its territorial space with the emergence of new agro-industrial activities was the town of Parelhas. With the demise of the trinomial cattle-cotton-mining in the 1980s, other productive activities were intensified from the 1990s, amongst them, pottery, responsible for the vegetal extraction for use as energy source. This recent economic and spatial restructuring in the region, reflected in the Parelhense municipal territory, required new productive ingredients responsible for the modification of past production relations that were based on cattle, cotton and mining. By that a process of exploring the environment was unleashed, especially the native vegetation, in an uncontrolled manner. In this context, the objective of this study was to survey and detect deforestation in the areas of Caatinga vegetation, used indiscriminately as energy supply for new agricultural practices, using remote sensing techniques based on the quantification of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index / NDVI, Soil-Adjusted Vegetation Index / SAVI, surface temperature and rainfall data in the years 1990 and 2010. The results indicated that SAVI values above 0.2 in 1990 and 2010 represent the areas with the highest density of vegetation that occur exclusively along the major drainages in the town and areas of higher elevations. The areas between the ranges of values from 0.5 to 0.15 SAVI are areas with poor vegetation. On the other hand the highest values of temperature are distributed in the western and southeastern parts of the township, usually in places where the soil is exposed or there is sparse vegetation. The areas of bare soil decreased in extension in 2010 at 11, 6% when related to 1990, this was caused by a higher rainfall intensity in the first half of 2010, but no regeneration of vegetation occurred in some places in the western and southeastern areas of the municipality today, due to the extraction of firewood to fuel the furnaces of industries in town

Modelagem e desenvolvimento de um banco de dados geográficos : aplicação à elaboração de mapas de sensibilidade ambiental ao derramamento de óleo na área costeira entre galinhos e São Bento do Norte-RN

The area between Galinhos and São Bento do Norte beaches, located in the northern coast of the Rio Grande do Norte State is submitted to intense and constant processes of littoral and aeolian transport, causing erosion, alterations in the sediments balance and modifications in the shoreline. Beyond these natural factors, the human interference is huge in the surroundings due to the Guamaré Petroliferous Pole nearby, the greater terrestrial oil producing in Brazil. Before all these characteristics had been organized MAMBMARE and MARPETRO projects with the main objective to execute the geo-environmental monitoring of coastal areas on the northern portion of RN. There is a bulky amount of database from the study area such as geologic and geophysical multitemporal data, hydrodynamic measurements, remote sensing multitemporal images, thematic maps, among others; it is of extreme importance to elaborate a Geographic Database (GD), one of the main components of a Geographic Information System (GIS), to store this amount of information, allowing the access to researchers and users. The first part of this work consisted to elaborate a GD to store the data of the area between Galinhos and São Bento do Norte cities. The main goal was to use the potentiality of the GIS as a tool to support decisions in the environmental monitoring of this region, a valuable target for oil exploration, salt companies and shrimp farms. The collected data was stored as a virtual library to assist men decisions from the results presented as digital thematic maps, tables and reports, useful as source of data in the preventive planning and as guidelines to the future research themes both on regional and local context. The second stage of this work consisted on elaborate the Oil-Spill Environmental Sensitivity Maps. These maps based on the Environmental Sensitivity Index Maps to Oil Spill developed by the Ministry of Environment are cartographic products that supply full information to the decision making, contingency planning and assessment in case of an oil spilling incident in any area. They represent the sensitivity of the areas related to oil spilling, through basic data such as geology, geomorphology, oceanographic, social-economic and biology. Some parameters, as hydrodynamic data, sampling data, coastal type, declivity of the beach face, types of resources in risk (biologic, economic, human or cultural) and the land use of the area are some of the essential information used on the environmental sensitivity maps elaboration. Thus using the available data were possible to develop sensitivity maps of the study area on different dates (June/2000 and December/2000) and to perceive that there was a difference on the sensitivity index generated. The area on December presented more sensible to the oil than the June one because hydrodynamic data (wave and tide energy) allowed a faster natural cleaning on June. The use of the GIS on sensitivity maps showed to be a powerful tool, since it was possible to manipulate geographic data with correctness and to elaborate more accurate maps with a higher level of detail to the study area. This presented an medium index (3 to 4) to the long shore and a high index (10) to the mangrove areas highly vulnerable to oil spill

Contribution to the discussions on the origin of the cerrado biome: Brazilian savanna

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Effects of physical habitat degradation on the stream fish assemblage structure in a pasture region

We compared the fish assemblage structure from streams with different intensities of physical habitat degradation and chemical water pollution by domestic sewage in southeastern Brazil. Eight streams (R1-R8) showing less disturbed or more disturbed conditions of chemical water quality and of physical habitat quality were selected. Cumulative abundance and biomass, combined in ABC plots, revealed (i) biomass curves above the abundance curves, represented by the streams R1-R2 (water and habitat less disturbed) and R5-R6 (water more disturbed and habitat less disturbed), and (ii) biomass curves below the abundance curves, represented by the streams R3-R4 (water less disturbed and habitat more disturbed) and R7-R8 (water and habitat more disturbed). The quantitative structure of the ichthyofauna showed significant correspondence with physical habitat condition but not with chemical water quality. The most significant species to cause the dissimilarity between less disturbed and more disturbed physical habitats was the exotic Poecilia reticulata. Such results indicate that in the focused region-with little influence of industrial pollution, noncritical domestic sewage discharge, and soil predominantly used for pasture-streams with high physical habitat integrity possess a differently structured ichthyofauna than streams with relatively low physical habitat integrity, reinforcing the importance of the physical habitat quality and riparian conservation along these water courses, warranting the conservation of these systems. Indeed, our results also reinforce the importance of including biotic descriptors, particularly of the ichthyo-fauna, in water-monitoring programs designed to reveal signs of human interference.

Fish-assemblage structure of the Corumbatai river basin, São Paulo State, Brazil: characterization and anthropogenic disturbances

O rio Corumbataí é um dos principais tributários da margem direita do rio Piracicaba que é um tributário do rio Tietê. O rio Corumbataí integra a bacia do rio Paraná e é regionalmente importante não só por possuir águas de boa qualidade, mas também por possuir elementos raros na paisagem local. Este estudo visou caracterizar as assembléias de peixes do rio Corumbataí e fornecer dados que contribuam para uma avaliação da sua qualidade ambiental. Na bacia do rio Corumbataí, foram amostrados 4 rios principais, cada um com 3 pontos de coleta. Vinte e quatro amostras foram coletadas durante os meses de março a julho e de setembro a dezembro de 2001. Dados bióticos foram avaliados por medidas de diversidade. Um modelo linear ANCOVA foi utilizado para testar a hipótese de variação espaço-temporal nas assembléias de peixes, com a riqueza de espécies como variável resposta, ordem do rio como fator e temperatura e logaritmo natural do número de indivíduos como covariáveis. Esta análise mostrou uma variação espaço-temporal que é corroborada por conceitos exaustivamente discutidos na literatura, tais como relação espécie-área e o conceito de rio contínuo. Dados provenientes do rio Ribeirão Claro mostraram um padrão diferente quando comparados com os outros rios. Esta diferença foi provavelmente devido à interferência humana e atesta o processo de fragmentação de hábitats aquáticos que podem ter levado a um isolamento das populações locais de peixes.

Cartografia geomorfológica como subsídio para a análise das interferências do uso da terra no desencadeamento dos processos erosivos: Um estudo em área canavieira

This study aimed at analyzing the geomorphologic dynamics and its relationship to human interference and ownership of relief, towards a systemic approach, through the interpretation, in an integrated manner, of cartographic documents made from techniques of geomorphologic cartography and of land use. By stereoscopic pairs of aerial photographs, it was prepared the Geomorphological Map and the Land Use Map, respectively based on Tricart's (1965) and Ceron and Diniz's (1966) technical procedures. The unit of the research analysis refers to the basin of Tijuco Preto Streamlet (SP) which is located at the Geomorphological Province of São Paulo state Peripheral Depression between latitudes 22°42'17 and 22°51'36 S, and longitudes 47°30'30 and 47°37'03. In general, it was possible to notice that this basin has been experiencing linear erosion processes, where it was mapped many erosion furrows, grooving and creeping, besides several slope breaks. These processes are associated with a conjunction of circumstances, and the anthropic one is mostly represented by sugarcane monoculture and by urbanization, which are crucial agents in activating erosion processes and in direct interfering on the dynamics of river and rain flow at the basin of Tijuco Preto Streamlet.

Detecção da área e extração do campo em imagens de impressão digital

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Caracterização molecular da estrutura genética de populações e espécies camarões palemonídeos Macrobrachium do gênero Macrobrachium

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Desenvolvimento e identificação de mirossatélites para pirarara - Phractocephalus hemioliopterus (Siluriformes, Pimelodidae): para análise de variabilidade genética

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)