UNCERTAINTY AND DECISION-MAKING IN THE HUMAN BRAIN

Dissertation presented to obtain the Ph.D degree in Biology, Neuroscience

Forecasting human entrances at a commercial store using facial recognition data

Dissertação de mestrado integrado em Engenharia e Gestão de Sistemas de Informação

Producción de información para las políticas públicas: observatorio de salud mental y derechos humanos en la provincia de córdoba. Documented information and indicators for the pubic policies in mental health: human rights obseratory in córdoba

El problema que enfrenta la institucionalidad estatal argentina es que existe un serio déficit de información no solamente en el momento de evaluar un resultado, sino ya al momento de diseñar la política. Las estadísticas oficiales de hechos vitales, salud y educación son difundidas en el mejor de los casos con un año de atraso. La información de indicadores de salud por su nivel de desagregación no permite conocer las realidades locales. Es posible constatar la falta de información sobre las medidas tomadas para asegurar el cumplimiento de las obligaciones del Estado en lo relativo a políticas y programas de salud mental. Del mismo modo que los organismos internacionales determinan los deficits de los sistemas de atención a la salud mental a través de las brechas de tratamiento y aun cuando no se dispone de estimaciones precisas se habla de brechas de información, que expresarían la distancia entre la información necesaria y la efectivamente disponible (OPS, 2009). Desde el mes de diciembre de 2007 se conforma la Mesa de Trabajo Permanente en Salud Mental y Derechos Humanos, con el objeto de instalar en agenda la necesidad de contar con una legislación que brinde el marco normativo para la transformación del sector. En los meses de octubre y noviembre de 2010 se aprobaron sendas leyes de salud mental en la Provincia de Córdoba y a nivel nacional. Ambas proponen la transformación progresiva en los sistemas de atención a los problemas de salud mental de la población. Desde la Mesa de Trabajo Permanente en Salud Mental y Derechos Humanos se afirma que la legislación es un marco necesario pero no suficiente, en tanto se constata que las princiales violaciones a los derechos humanos se producen en situaciones concretas. El presente proyecto nace de la necesidad de contar con un sistema de información que permita conocer la transformación de los servicios de salud mental en la provincia de Córdoba a partir de la sanción de la ley 9848 de Salud Mental en el mes de octubre de 2010. Una vez logrado este objetivo legislativo, se pretende monitorear la gestión con la formulación de los siguientes interrogantes: ¿a través de qué indicadores medir, evaluar y monitorear si la producción de los servicios de salud mental se lleva adelante desde la perspectiva del enfoque de derechos sancionada en el marco normativo vigente?; ¿cuáles son los indicadores que desde dicha perspectiva los organismos estatales de producción de servicios deben elaborar para el compromiso de acción y la rendición de cuentas frente a la ciudadanía? ¿cuáles son los indicadores que la ciudadanía debe reclamar a los fines de monitorear el cumplimiento de dichos compromisos? La puesta en marcha del Observatorio de Salud Mental y Derechos Humanos permitirá analizar las políticas y programas de salud mental desde la perspectiva de los derechos humanos y avanzar en el monitoreo de la producción de los servicios de salud mental. Objetivo General: analizar y hacer visible el cumplimiento de los objetivos sancionados en la ley 9848 de Salud Mental a través de la observación, el monitoreo y la incidencia en las políticas de salud mental de la provincia de Córdoba. Metodología: la construcción de indicadores de derechos humanos para la salud mental. El Observatorio de Salud Mental y Derechos Humanos pretende dar cuenta de las transformaciones que van a ocurrir a partir de la sanción de la ley 9848. Los resultados esperados están ligados a la producción y difusión de información sistematizada sobre las transformaciones en salud mental, a la vigilancia y el análisis del efecto/impacto de las políticas e incidir en las decisiones. El Observatorio pretende reconocer e integrar la información disponible y proponer indicadores que den cuenta de la situación inicial al momento de la implementación de los marcos normativos y permitir el monitoreo de las transformaciones emergentes. This project stems from the need for an information system designed to show the transformation of mental health services in the province of Cordoba after the enactment of the Mental Health Act 9848 in October 2010. Once achieved this legislative objective is to monitor the management with the formulation of the following questions: through which indicators to measure, evaluate and monitor whether the production of mental health services are carried forward from the perspective of rights-based approach enacted in two laws?, What are the indicators from that perspective the production agencies should develop services for the commitment to action and accountability to the public? What are the indicators that the public should demand that the purpose of monitoring compliance with these commitments? The launch of the Centre for Mental Health and Human Rights will review the policies and mental health programs from the perspective of human rights and progress in monitoring the production of mental health services. General Objective: to analyze and highlight the achievement of the objectives sanctioned by the Mental Health Act 9848 through the observation, monitoring and impact on mental health policy in the province of Cordoba. Methodology: building human rights indicators for mental health Mental Observatory Health and Human Rights aims to account for the changes that will occur after the enactment of Law 9848. The expected results are linked to production and dissemination of systematic information about changes in mental health, surveillance and analysis of the effect / impact and influence policy decisions. The Centre aims to recognize and integrate the available information and propose indicators that account for the initial situation at the time of implementation of regulatory frameworks and allow monitoring of change emerging.

Decision making in a human population living sustainably

The Tiwi people of northern Australia have managed natural resources continuously for 6000-8000 years. Tiwi management objectives and outcomes may reflect how they gather information about the environment. We qualitatively analyzed Tiwi documents and management techniques to examine the relation between the social and physical environment of decision makers and their decision-making strategies. We hypothesized that principles of bounded rationality, namely, the use of efficient rules to navigate complex decision problems, explain how Tiwi managers use simple decision strategies (i.e., heuristics) to make robust decisions. Tiwi natural resource managers reduced complexity in decision making through a process that gathers incomplete and uncertain information to quickly guide decisions toward effective outcomes. They used management feedback to validate decisions through an information loop that resulted in long-term sustainability of environmental use. We examined the Tiwi decision-making processes relative to management of barramundi (Lates calcarifer) fisheries and contrasted their management with the state government's management of barramundi. Decisions that enhanced the status of individual people and their attainment of aspiration levels resulted in reliable resource availability for Tiwi consumers. Different decision processes adopted by the state for management of barramundi may not secure similarly sustainable outcomes.

Pathology as the Cornerstone of Human Tissue Banking: European Consensus Expert Group Report

Aside from ethical considerations, the primary requirement for usage of human tissues in basic or translational research is the thorough characterization of tissues. The second, but equally essential, requirement is that tissues be collected, processed, annotated, and preserved in optimal conditions. These requirements put the pathologist at the center of tissue banking activities and of research aimed at discovering new biomarkers. Pathologists not only provide information identifying the specimen but also make decisions on what materials should be biobanked, on the preservation conditions, and on the timeline of events that precede preservation and storage. This central position calls for increased recognition of the role of the pathologist by the biomolecular community and places new demands on the pathologist's workload and scope of scientific activities. These questions were addressed by an Expert Group Meeting of the European Biological and Biomolecular Research Infrastructure (BBMRI). While detailed recommendations are published elsewhere (Bevilacqua et al., Virchows Archivs, 2010, in press), this article outlines the strategic and technological issues identified by the Expert Group and identifies ways forward for better integration of pathology in the current thrust for development of biomarker-based "personalized medicine.

Location Determinants of New Firms: Does Skill Level of Human Capital Really Matter?

This paper is about the role played by stock of human capital on location decisions of new manufacturing plants. We analyse the effect of several skill levels (from basic school to PhD) on decisions about the location of plants in various industries and, therefore, of different technological levels. We also test whether spatial aggregation level biases the results and determine the most appropriate areas to be considered in analyses of these phenomena. Our main statistical source is the Register of Manufacturing Establishments of Catalonia (REIC), which has plant-level microdata on the locations of new manufacturing plants. Keywords: agglomeration economies, industrial location, human capital, count-data models, spatial econometrics.

Current situation and perspectives regarding human Chagas disease in midwestern of the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil

Recognising the importance of Chagas disease in Brazil, Bambuí set up epidemiological surveillance for Chagas disease in 1974 and was the first municipality to do so. To ascertain the current epidemiology of Chagas disease in this municipality, 1.782 blood samples from the general population were analysed; 7.7% of samples were found to be seropositive for Chagas disease. A strong positive correlation between increasing age and Chagas disease was evident in both genders, with the highest prevalence in individuals aged over 60 years. Clinically, the cardiodigestive form of Chagas disease was the most common in these samples. These data confirm the interruption of Trypanosoma cruzi transmission, in parallel with a still important residual morbidity of Chagas disease in the county, thus supporting political decisions that will prioritise epidemiological surveillance and medical treatment of Chagas disease in the coming years.

Between pluralism and majoritarianism: the European Court of Human Rights on religious symbols and education

How is it possible to square the development of a consistent Europeanapproach to religious diversity with the recognition of the sometimes-conflictiveplurality of state-religion models? The Court´s support of the liberalprinciples of separation and neutrality have either been deplored by Christianconservatives as the result of European Christophobia, or celebratedby secularists as contributing to the formation of a Europe free of religion.In contrast, the present chapter argues for a differentiated approach toEuropean jurisprudence, outlining how the Court has been oscillating betweenan appealing liberal-pluralist perspective or framework, and a questionablemajoritarian one. Both perspectives are illustrated by focusing onrepresentative decisions in the area of religious education and symbols.

Human Capital, the Structure of Production, and Growth

Recent decisions by the Spanish national competition authority (TDC) mandate payment systems to include only two costs when setting their domestic multilateral interchange fees (MIF): a fixed processing cost and a variable cost for the risk of fraud. This artificial lowering of MIFs will not lower consumer prices, because of uncompetitive retailing; but it will however lead to higher cardholders fees and, likely, new prices for point of sale terminals, delaying the development of the immature Spanish card market. Also, to the extent that increased cardholders fees do not offset the fall in MIFs revenue, the task of issuing new cards will be underpaid relatively to the task of acquiring new merchants, causing an imbalance between the two sides of the networks. Moreover, the pricing scheme arising from the decisions will cause unbundling and underprovision of those services whose costs are excluded. Indeed, the payment guarantee and the free funding period will tend to be removed from the package of services currently provided, to be either provided by third parties, by issuers for a separate fee, or not provided at all, especially to smaller and medium-sized merchants. Transaction services will also suffer the consequences that the TDC precludes pricing them in variable terms.

Educational attainment and timing of fertility decisions

This paper focuses on timing of fertility decisions, conditional on the level of educational attainment of parents. Timing of fertility and educational attainment of parents rationalize the negative relationship observed in the data between hourly wages and childbearing. It is shown how the recent evolution in total fertility rates observed in developed countries could be in part the result of a transition from an early childbearing regime to a late childbearing regime. I develop a general equilibrium overlapping generations model in order to understand the joint determination of timing of childbearing decisions together with other household economic decisions in a life cycle framework. I show how idiosyncratic uncertainty might have asymmetric efects on completed fertility depending on timing of childbearing, generating the diferences in completed fertility observed between households that difer in their level of educational attainment.

Educational attainment and timing of fertility decisions

This paper focuses on timing of fertility decisions, conditional on the level of educational attainment of parents. Timing of fertility and educational attainment of parents rationalize the negative relationship observed in the data between hourly wages and childbearing. It is shown how the recent evolution in total fertility rates observed in developed countries could be in part the result of a transition from an early childbearing regime to a late childbearing regime. I develop a general equilibrium overlapping generations model in order to understand the joint determination of timing of childbearing decisions together with other household economic decisions in a life cycle framework. I show how idiosyncratic uncertainty might have asymmetric efects on completed fertility depending on timing of childbearing, generating the diferences in completed fertility observed between households that difer in their level of educational attainment.

Resistance to extreme strategies, rather than prosocial preferences, can explain human cooperation in public goods games.

The results of numerous economic games suggest that humans behave more cooperatively than would be expected if they were maximizing selfish interests. It has been argued that this is because individuals gain satisfaction from the success of others, and that such prosocial preferences require a novel evolutionary explanation. However, in previous games, imperfect behavior would automatically lead to an increase in cooperation, making it impossible to decouple any form of mistake or error from prosocial cooperative decisions. Here we empirically test between these alternatives by decoupling imperfect behavior from prosocial preferences in modified versions of the public goods game, in which individuals would maximize their selfish gain by completely (100%) cooperating. We found that, although this led to higher levels of cooperation, it did not lead to full cooperation, and individuals still perceived their group mates as competitors. This is inconsistent with either selfish or prosocial preferences, suggesting that the most parsimonious explanation is imperfect behavior triggered by psychological drives that can prevent both complete defection and complete cooperation. More generally, our results illustrate the caution that must be exercised when interpreting the evolutionary implications of economic experiments, especially the absolute level of cooperation in a particular treatment.

Syndromic algorithms for detection of gambiense human african trypanosomiasis in South Sudan.

BACKGROUND: Active screening by mobile teams is considered the best method for detecting human African trypanosomiasis (HAT) caused by Trypanosoma brucei gambiense but the current funding context in many post-conflict countries limits this approach. As an alternative, non-specialist health care workers (HCWs) in peripheral health facilities could be trained to identify potential cases who need testing based on their symptoms. We explored the predictive value of syndromic referral algorithms to identify symptomatic cases of HAT among a treatment-seeking population in Nimule, South Sudan. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Symptom data from 462 patients (27 cases) presenting for a HAT test via passive screening over a 7 month period were collected to construct and evaluate over 14,000 four item syndromic algorithms considered simple enough to be used by peripheral HCWs. For comparison, algorithms developed in other settings were also tested on our data, and a panel of expert HAT clinicians were asked to make referral decisions based on the symptom dataset. The best performing algorithms consisted of three core symptoms (sleep problems, neurological problems and weight loss), with or without a history of oedema, cervical adenopathy or proximity to livestock. They had a sensitivity of 88.9-92.6%, a negative predictive value of up to 98.8% and a positive predictive value in this context of 8.4-8.7%. In terms of sensitivity, these out-performed more complex algorithms identified in other studies, as well as the expert panel. The best-performing algorithm is predicted to identify about 9/10 treatment-seeking HAT cases, though only 1/10 patients referred would test positive. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: In the absence of regular active screening, improving referrals of HAT patients through other means is essential. Systematic use of syndromic algorithms by peripheral HCWs has the potential to increase case detection and would increase their participation in HAT programmes. The algorithms proposed here, though promising, should be validated elsewhere.

Measuring and making decisions for social reciprocity

Social reciprocity may explain certain emerging psychological processes, which are likely to be founded on dyadic relations. Although some indices and statistics have been proposed to measure and make statistical decisions regarding social reciprocity in groups, these were generally developed to identify association patterns rather than to quantify the discrepancies between what each individual addresses to his/her partners and what is received from them in return. Additionally, social researchers are not only interested in measuring groups at the global level, since dyadic and individual measurements are also necessary for a proper description of social interactions. This study is concerned with a new statistic for measuring social reciprocity at the global level and with decomposing it in order to identify those dyads and individuals which account for a significant part of asymmetry in social interactions. In addition to a set of indices some exact analytical results are derived and a way of making statistical decisions is proposed.

Spatialization of climate, physical and socioeconomic factors that affect the dairy goat production in Brazil and their impact on animal breeding decisions

Brazil has high climate, soil and environmental diversity, as well as distinct socioeconomic and political realities, what results in differences among the political administrative regions of the country. The objective of this study was to determine spatial distribution of the physical, climatic and socioeconomic aspects that best characterize the production of dairy goats in Brazil. Production indices of milk per goat, goat production, milk production, as well as temperature range, mean temperature, precipitation, normalized difference vegetation index, relative humidity, altitude, agricultural farms; farms with native pasture, farms with good quality pasture, farms with water resources, farms that receive technical guidance, family farming properties, non-familiar farms and the human development index were evaluated. The multivariate analyses were carried out to spatialize climatic, physical and socioeconomic variables and so differenciate the Brazilian States and Regions. The highest yields of milk and goat production were observed in the Northeast. The Southeast Region had the second highest production of milk, followed by the South, Midwest and North. Multivariate analysis revealed distinctions between clusters of political-administrative regions of Brazil. The climatic variables were most important to discriminate between regions of Brazil. Therefore, it is necessary to implement animal breeding programs to meet the needs of each region.