Predictors of in-hospital mortality among cardiogenic shock patients. Prognostic and therapeutic implications

Cardiogenic shock (CS) has a poor prognosis. The heterogeneity in the mortality through different subgroups suggests that some factors can be useful to perform risk stratification and guide management. We aimed to find predictors of in-hospital mortality in these patients. We analyzed all cases of cardiogenic shock due to medical conditions admitted in our intensive acute cardiovascular care unity from November 2010 till November 2015. Clinical, biochemical and hemodynamic variables were registered, as was the Interagency Registry for Mechanically Assisted Circulatory Support (INTERMACS) profile at 24 h of CS diagnosis. From a total of 281 patients, 28 died within the first 24 h and were not included in the analysis. A total of 253 patients survived the first 24 h, mean age was 68.8 ± 14.4 years, and 174 (68.8%) were men. Etiologies: acute coronary syndrome 146 (57.7%), acute heart failure 60 (23.7%), arrhythmias 35 (13.8%), and others 12 (4.8%). A total of 91 patients (36.0%) died during hospitalization. We found the following independent predictors of in-hospital mortality: age (odds ratio [OR] 1.032, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.003–1.062), blood glucose (OR 1.004, 95% CI 1.001–1.008), heart rate (OR 1.014, 95% CI 1.001–1.028), and INTERMACS profile (OR 0.168, 95% CI 0.107–0.266). In patients with CS the INTERMACS profile at 24 h of diagnosis was associated with higher in-hospital mortality. This and other prognostic variables (age, blood glucose, and heart rate) may be useful for risk stratification and to select appropriate medical or invasive interventions.

Mortality and cost outcomes of elderly trauma patients admitted to intensive care and the general wards of an Australian tertiary referral hospital

Mortality and cost outcomes of elderly intensive care unit (ICU) trauma patients were characterised in a retrospective cohort study from an Australian tertiary ICU. Trauma patients admitted between January 2000 and December 2005 were grouped into three major age categories: aged ≥65 years admitted into ICU (n=272); aged ≥65 years admitted into general ward (n=610) and aged <65 years admitted into ICU (n=1617). Hospital mortality predictors were characterised as odds ratios (OR) using logistic regression. The impact of predictor variables on (log) total hospital-stay costs was determined using least squares regression. An alternate treatment-effects regression model estimated the mortality cost-effect as an endogenous variable. Mortality predictors (P ≤0.0001, comparator: ICU ≥65 years, ventilated) were: ICU <65 not-ventilated (OR 0.014); ICU <65 ventilated (OR 0.090); ICU age ≥65 not-ventilated (OR 0.061) and ward ≥65 (OR 0.086); increasing injury severity score and increased Charlson comorbidity index of 1 and 2, compared with zero (OR 2.21 [1.40 to 3.48] and OR 2.57 [1.45 to 4.55]). The raw mean daily ICU and hospital costs in A$ 2005 (US$) for age <65 and ≥65 to ICU, and ≥65 to the ward were; for year 2000: ICU, $2717 (1462) and $2777 (1494); hospital, $1837 (988) and $1590 (855); ward $933 (502); for year 2005: ICU, $3202 (2393) and $3086 (2307); hospital, $1938 (1449) and $1914 (1431); ward $1180 (882). Cost increments were predicted by age ≥65 and ICU admission, increasing injury severity score, mechanical ventilation, Charlson comorbidity index increments and hospital survival. Mortalitycost-effect was estimated at -63% by least squares regression and -82% by treatment-effects regression model. Patient demographic factors, injury severity and its consequences predict both cost and survival in trauma. The cost mortality effect was biased upwards by conventional least squares regression estimation.

Evaluating statistical and machine learning methods to predict risk of in-hospital child mortality in Uganda

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Mean Platelet Volume (MPV), Platelet Distribution Width (PDW), Platelet Count and Plateletcrit (PCT) as predictors of in-hospital paediatric mortality: a case-control Study.

Background: Thrombocytopenia has been shown to predict mortality. We hypothesize that platelet indices may be more useful prognostic indicators. Our study subjects were children one month to 14 years old admitted to our hospital. Aim: To determine whether platelet count, plateletcrit (PCT), mean platelet volume (MPV) and platelet distribution width (PDW) and their ratios can predict mortality in hospitalised children. Methods: Children who died during hospital stay were the cases. Controls were age matched children admitted contemporaneously. The first blood sample after admission was used for analysis. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to identify the best threshold for measured variables and the ratios studied. Multiple regression analysis was done to identify independent predictors of mortality. Results: Forty cases and forty controls were studied. Platelet count, PCT and the ratios of MPV/Platelet count, MPV/PCT, PDW/Platelet count, PDW/PCT and MPV x PDW/Platelet count x PCT were significantly different among children who survived compared to those who died. On multiple regression analysis the ratio of MPV/PCT, PDW/Platelet count and MPV/ Platelet count were risk factors for mortality with an odds ratio of 4.31(95% CI, 1.69-10.99), 3.86 (95% CI, 1.53-9.75), 3.45 (95% CI, 1.38-8.64) respectively. In 67% of the patients who died MPV/PCT ratio was above 41.8 and PDW/Platelet count was above 3.86. In 65% of patients who died MPV/Platelet count was above 3.45. Conclusion: The MPV/PCT, PDW/Platelet count and MPV/Platelet count, in the first sample after admission in this case control study were predictors of mortality and could predict 65% to 67% of deaths accurately.

The effects of ambulance ramping on Emergency Department length of stay and mortality

Background: Ambulance ramping within the Emergency Department (ED) is a common problem both internationally and in Australia. Previous research has focused on various issues associated with ambulance ramping such as access block, ED overcrowding and ambulance bypass. However, limited research has been conducted on ambulance ramping and its effects on patient outcomes. ----- ----- Methods: A case-control design was used to describe, compare and predict patient outcomes of 619 ramped (cases) vs. 1238 non-ramped (control) patients arriving to one ED via ambulance from 1 June 2007 to 31 August 2007. Cases and controls were matched (on a 1:2 basis) on age, gender and presenting problem. Outcome measures included ED length of stay and in-hospital mortality. ----- ----- Results: The median ramp time for all 1857 patients was 11 (IQR 6—21) min. Compared to nonramped patients, ramped patients had significantly longer wait time to be triaged (10 min vs. 4 min). Ramped patients also comprised significantly higher proportions of those access blocked (43% vs. 34%). No significant difference in the proportion of in-hospital deaths was identified (2%vs. 3%). Multivariate analysis revealed that the likelihood of having an ED length of stay greater than eight hours was 34% higher among patients who were ramped (OR 1.34, 95% CI 1.06—1.70, p = 0.014). In relation to in-hospital mortality age was the only significant independent predictor of mortality (p < 0.0001). ----- ----- Conclusion: Ambulance ramping is one factor that contributes to prolonged ED length of stay and adds additional strain on ED service provision. The potential for adverse patient outcomes that may occur as a result of ramping warrants close attention by health care service providers.

The impact of malnutrition and decreased food intake on length of stay, readmission, and mortality in acute care patients

Rationale: The Australasian Nutrition Care Day Survey (ANCDS) evaluated if malnutrition and decreased food intake are independent risk factors for negative outcomes in hospitalised patients. Methods: A multicentre (56 hospitals) cross-sectional survey was conducted in two phases. Phase 1 evaluated nutritional status (defined by Subjective Global Assessment) and 24-hour food intake recorded as 0, 25, 50, 75, and 100% intake. Phase 2 data, which included length of stay (LOS), readmissions and mortality, were collected 90 days post-Phase 1. Logistic regression was used to control for confounders: age, gender, disease type and severity (using Patient Clinical Complexity Level scores). Results: Of 3122 participants (53% males, mean age: 65±18 years) 32% were malnourished and 23% consumed�25% of the offered food. Median LOS for malnourished (MN) patients was higher than well-nourished (WN) patients (15 vs. 10 days, p<0.0001). Median LOS for patients consuming �25% of the food was higher than those consuming �50% (13 vs. 11 days, p<0.0001). MN patients had higher readmission rates (36% vs. 30%, p = 0.001). The odds ratios of 90-day in-hospital mortality were 1.8 times greater for MN patients (CI: 1.03 3.22, p = 0.04) and 2.7 times greater for those consuming �25% of the offered food (CI: 1.54 4.68, p = 0.001). Conclusion: The ANCDS demonstrates that malnutrition and/or decreased food intake are associated with longer LOS and readmissions. The survey also establishes that malnutrition and decreased food intake are independent risk factors for in-hospital mortality in acute care patients; and highlights the need for appropriate nutritional screening and support during hospitalisation. Disclosure of Interest: None Declared.

Medical nutrition therapy and simple interventions can improve intake in patients who eat poorly in hospital

The Australasian Nutrition Care Day Survey (ANCDS) reported two-in-five patients in Australian and New Zealand hospitals consume ≤50% of the offered food. The ANCDS found a significant association between poor food intake and increased in-hospital mortality after controlling for confounders (nutritional status, age, disease type and severity)1. Evidence for the effectiveness of medical nutrition therapy (MNT) in hospital patients eating poorly is lacking. An exploratory study was conducted in respiratory, neurology and orthopaedic wards of an Australian hospital. At baseline, 24-hour food intake (0%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 100% of offered meals) was evaluated for patients hospitalised for ≥2 days and not under dietetic review. Patients consuming ≤50% of offered meals due to nutrition-impact symptoms were referred to ward dietitians for MNT with food intake re-evaluated on day-7. 184 patients were observed over four weeks. Sixty-two patients (34%) consumed ≤50% of the offered meals. Simple interventions (feeding/menu assistance, diet texture modifications) improved intake to ≥75% in 30 patients who did not require further MNT. Of the 32 patients referred for MNT, baseline and day-7 data were available for 20 patients (68±17years, 65% females, BMI: 22±5kg/m2, median energy, protein intake: 2250kJ, 25g respectively). On day-7, 17 participants (85%) demonstrated significantly higher consumption (4300kJ, 53g; p<0.01). Three participants demonstrated no improvement due to ongoing nutrition-impact symptoms. “Percentage food intake” was a quick tool to identify patients in whom simple interventions could enhance intake. MNT was associated with improved dietary intake in hospital patients. Further research is needed to establish a causal relationship.

An exploratory study to evaluate whether medical nutrition therapy can improve dietary intake in hospital patients who eat poorly

Background and aims The Australasian Nutrition Care Day Survey (ANCDS) reported two-in-five patients consume ≤50% of the offered food in Australian and New Zealand hospitals. After controlling for confounders (nutritional status, age, disease type and severity), the ANCDS also established an independent association between poor food intake and increased in-hospital mortality. This study aimed to evaluate if medical nutrition therapy (MNT) could improve dietary intake in hospital patients eating poorly. Methods An exploratory pilot study was conducted in the respiratory, neurology and orthopaedic wards of an Australian hospital. At baseline, percentage food intake (0%, 25%, 50%, 75%, and 100%) was evaluated for each main meal and snack for a 24-hour period in patients hospitalised for ≥2 days and not under dietetic review. Patients consuming ≤50% of offered meals due to nutrition-impact symptoms were referred to ward dietitians for MNT. Food intake was re-evaluated on the seventh day following recruitment (post-MNT). Results 184 patients were observed over four weeks; 32 patients were referred for MNT. Although baseline and post-MNT data for 20 participants (68±17years, 65% females) indicated a significant increase in median energy and protein intake post-MNT (3600kJ/day, 40g/day) versus baseline (2250kJ/day, 25g/day) (p<0.05), the increased intake met only 50% of dietary requirements. Persistent nutrition impact symptoms affected intake. Conclusion In this pilot study whilst dietary intake improved, it remained inadequate to meet participants’ estimated requirements due to ongoing nutrition-impact symptoms. Appropriate medical management and early enteral feeding could be a possible solution for such patients.

Protein-energy malnutrition exists and is associated with negative outcomes in morbidly obese hospital patients

Prevalence of protein-energy malnutrition (PEM), food intake inadequacy and associated health-related outcomes in morbidly obese (Body Mass Index ≥ 40 kg/m2) acute care patients are unknown. This study reports findings in morbidly obese participants from the Australasian Nutrition Care Day Survey (ANCDS) conducted in 2010. The ANCDS was a cross-sectional survey involving acute care patients from 56 Australian and New Zealand hospitals. Hospital-based dietitians evaluated participants’ nutritional status (defined by Subjective Global Assessment, SGA) and 24-hour food intake (as 0%, 25%, 50%, 75%, and 100% of the offered food). Three months later, outcome data, including length of stay (LOS) and 90-day in-hospital mortality, were collected. Of the 3122 participants, 4% (n = 136) were morbidly obese (67% females, 55 ± 14 years, BMI: 48 ± 8 kg/m2). Eleven percent (n = 15) of the morbidly obese patients were malnourished, and most (n = 11/15, 73%)received standard hospital diets without additional nutritional support. Malnourished morbidly obese patients had significantly longer LOS and greater 90-day in-hospital mortality than well-nourished counterparts (23 days vs. 9 days, p = 0.036; 14% vs. 0% mortality, p = 0.011 respectively). Thirteen morbidly obese patients (10%) consumed only 25% of the offered meals with a significantly greater proportion of malnourished (n = 4, 27%) versus well-nourished (n = 9, 7%) (p = 0.018). These results provide new knowledge on the prevalence of PEM and poor food intake in morbidly obese patients in Australian and New Zealand hospitals. For the first time internationally, the study establishes that PEM is significantly associated with negative outcomes in morbidly obese patients and warrants timely nutritional support during hospitalisation.

Trends in hospital admission for stroke in Calgary

Background Stroke incidence has fallen since 1950. Recent trends suggest that stroke incidence may be stabilizing or increasing. We investigated time trends in stroke occurrence and in-hospital morbidity and mortality in the Calgary Health Region. Methods All patients admitted to hospitals in the Calgary Health Region between 1994 and 2002 with a primary discharge diagnosis code (ICD-9 or ICD-10) of stroke were included. In-hospital strokes were also included. Stroke type, date of admission, age, gender,discharge disposition (died, discharged) and in-hospital complications (pneumonia, pulmonary embolism, deep venous thrombosis) were recorded. Poisson and simple linear regression was used to model time trends of occurrence by stroke type and age-group and to extrapolate future time trends. Results From 1994 to 2002, 11642 stroke events were observed. Of these, 9879 patients (84.8%) were discharged from hospital, 1763 (15.1%) died in hospital, and 591 (5.1%) developed in-hospital complications from pneumonia, pulmonary embolism or deep venous thrombosis. Both in-hospital mortality and complication rates were highest for hemorrhages. Over the period of study, the rate of stroke admission has remained stable. However, total numbers of stroke admission to hospital have faced a significant increase (p=0.012) due to the combination of increases in intracerebral hemorrhage (p=0.021) and ischemic stroke admissions (p=0.011). Sub-arachnoid hemorrhage rates have declined. In-hospital stroke mortality has experienced an overall decline due to a decrease in deaths from ischemic stroke, intracerebral hemorrhage and sub-arachnoid hemorrhage. Conclusions Although age-adjusted stroke occurrence rates were stable from 1994 to 2002, this is associated with both a sharp increase in the absolute number of stroke admissions and decline in proportional in-hospital mortality. Further research is needed into changes in stroke severity over time to understand the causes of declining in-hospital stroke mortality rates.

Patient perspectives of factors contributing to inadequate dietary intake in acute care patients in hospital

Up to 30% of acute care patients consume less than half of the food provided in hospital. Inadequate dietary intake can have adverse clinical outcomes, including a higher risk of in-hospital mortality. This study aimed to investigate the reasons for poor intake among acute care patients in hospital. Patients with an observed intake of ≤50% of the food provided at lunch were approached to participate in the study. Thirty-two patients participated in semi-structured interviews over a three week period, to provide their perspective of food and mealtimes in hospital and discuss the reasons and factors influencing inadequate intake. Responses were coded and analysed thematically using the framework method. Patients reported both individual and organisational factors contribute to their inadequate intake. Half the patients reported the size of the meals were too large, with some patients reporting that large meal sizes puts them off their food and reduced their intake. ‘Not important to eat all the food provided’, and ‘do not need to eat much food in hospital’ were common attitudes among the patients. Half the patients reported that nurses did not observe their intake and were not concerned if all the food was not eaten. Identifying the reasons for poor intake can assist with the development of suitable interventions to improve dietary intake and reduce the risk of adverse clinical outcomes. Further investigation of suitable interventions to reduce portion sizes and improve both staff and patient perceptions of the importance of food in hospital is recommended.

Early post-operative mortality after major lower limb amputation: A systematic review of population and regional based studies

OBJECTIVE: Lower limb amputation is often associated with a high risk of early post-operative mortality. Mortality rates are also increasingly being put forward as a possible benchmark for surgical performance. The primary aim of this systematic review is to investigate early post-operative mortality following a major lower limb amputation in population/regional based studies, and reported factors that might influence these mortality outcomes. METHODS: Embase, PubMed, Cinahl and Psycinfo were searched for publications in any language on 30 day or in hospital mortality after major lower limb amputation in population/regional based studies. PRISMA guidelines were followed. A self developed checklist was used to assess quality and susceptibility to bias. Summary data were extracted for the percentage of the population who died; pooling of quantitative results was not possible because of methodological differences between studies. RESULTS: Of the 9,082 publications identified, results were included from 21. The percentage of the population undergoing amputation who died within 30 days ranged from 7% to 22%, the in hospital equivalent was 4-20%. Transfemoral amputation and older age were found to have a higher proportion of early post-operative mortality, compared with transtibial and younger age, respectively. Other patient factors or surgical treatment choices related to increased early post-operative mortality varied between studies. CONCLUSIONS: Early post-operative mortality rates vary from 4% to 22%. There are very limited data presented for patient related factors (age, comorbidities) that influence mortality. Even less is known about factors related to surgical treatment choices, being limited to amputation level. More information is needed to allow comparison across studies or for any benchmarking of acceptable mortality rates. Agreement is needed on key factors to be reported.

Valve surgery in active infective endocarditis: a simple score to predict in-hospital prognosis

Aims Surgery for infective endocarditis (IE) is associated with high mortality. Our objectives were to describe the experience with surgical treatment for IE in Spain, and to identify predictors of in-hospital mortality. Methods Prospective cohort of 1000 consecutive patients with IE. Data were collected in 26 Spanish hospitals. Results Surgery was performed in 437 patients (43.7%). Patients treated with surgery were younger and predominantly male. They presented fewer comorbid conditions and more often had negative blood cultures and heart failure. In-hospital mortality after surgery was lower than in the medical therapy group (24.3 vs 30.7%, p = 0.02). In patients treated with surgery, endocarditis involved a native valve in 267 patients (61.1%), a prosthetic valve in 122 (27.9%), and a pacemaker lead with no clear further valve involvement in 48 (11.0%). The most common aetiologies were Staphylococcus (186, 42.6%), Streptococcus (97, 22.2%), and Enterococcus (49, 11.2%). The main indications for surgery were heart failure and severe valve regurgitation. A risk score for in-hospital mortality was developed using 7 prognostic variables with a similar predictive value (OR between 1.7 and 2.3): PALSUSE: prosthetic valve, age ≥ 70, large intracardiac destruction, Staphylococcus spp, urgent surgery, sex [female], EuroSCORE ≥ 10. In-hospital mortality ranged from 0% in patients with a PALSUSE score of 0 to 45.4% in patients with PALSUSE score > 3. Conclusions The prognosis of IE surgery is highly variable. The PALSUSE score could help to identify patients with higher in-hospital mortality.

Platelet Counts, Acute Kidney Injury, and Mortality after Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting Surgery.

BACKGROUND: Cardiac surgery requiring cardiopulmonary bypass is associated with platelet activation. Because platelets are increasingly recognized as important effectors of ischemia and end-organ inflammatory injury, the authors explored whether postoperative nadir platelet counts are associated with acute kidney injury (AKI) and mortality after coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) surgery. METHODS: The authors evaluated 4,217 adult patients who underwent CABG surgery. Postoperative nadir platelet counts were defined as the lowest in-hospital values and were used as a continuous predictor of postoperative AKI and mortality. Nadir values in the lowest 10th percentile were also used as a categorical predictor. Multivariable logistic regression and Cox proportional hazard models examined the association between postoperative platelet counts, postoperative AKI, and mortality. RESULTS: The median postoperative nadir platelet count was 121 × 10/l. The incidence of postoperative AKI was 54%, including 9.5% (215 patients) and 3.4% (76 patients) who experienced stages II and III AKI, respectively. For every 30 × 10/l decrease in platelet counts, the risk for postoperative AKI increased by 14% (adjusted odds ratio, 1.14; 95% CI, 1.09 to 1.20; P < 0.0001). Patients with platelet counts in the lowest 10th percentile were three times more likely to progress to a higher severity of postoperative AKI (adjusted proportional odds ratio, 3.04; 95% CI, 2.26 to 4.07; P < 0.0001) and had associated increased risk for mortality immediately after surgery (adjusted hazard ratio, 5.46; 95% CI, 3.79 to 7.89; P < 0.0001). CONCLUSION: The authors found a significant association between postoperative nadir platelet counts and AKI and short-term mortality after CABG surgery.

Outreach and Early Warning Systems (EWS) for the prevention of intensive care admission and death of critically ill adult patients on general hospital wards

BACKGROUND: Despite the fact that outreach and early warning systems (EWS) are an integral part of a hospital wide systems approach to improve the early identification and management of deteriorating patients on general hospital wards, the widespread implementation of these interventions in practice is not based on robust research evidence. OBJECTIVES: The primary objective was to determine the impact of critical care outreach services on hospital mortality rates. Secondary objectives included determining the effect of outreach services on intensive care unit (ICU) admission patterns, length of hospital stay and adverse events. SEARCH STRATEGY: The review authors searched the following electronic databases: EPOC Specialised Register, The Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) and other Cochrane databases (all on The Cochrane Library 2006, Issue 3), MEDLINE (1996-June week 3 2006), EMBASE (1974-week 26 2006), CINAHL (1982-July week 5 2006), First Search (1992-2005) and CAB Health (1990-July 2006); also reference lists of relevant articles, conference abstracts, and made contact with experts and critical care organisations for further information. SELECTION CRITERIA: Randomised controlled trials (RCTs), controlled clinical trials (CCTs), controlled before and after studies (CBAs) and interrupted time series designs (ITS) which measured hospital mortality, unanticipated ICU admissions, ICU readmissions, length of hospital stay and adverse events following implementation of outreach and EWS in a general hospital ward to identify deteriorating adult patients versus general hospital ward setting without outreach and EWS were included in the review. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Three review authors independently extracted data and two review authors assessed the methodological quality of the included studies. Meta-analysis was not possible due to heterogeneity. Summary statistics and descriptive summaries of primary and secondary outcomes are presented for each study. MAIN RESULTS: Two cluster-randomised control trials were included: one randomised at hospital level (23 hospitals in Australia) and one at ward level (16 wards in the UK). The primary outcome in the Australian trial (a composite score comprising incidence of unexpected cardiac arrests, unexpected deaths and unplanned ICU admissions) showed no statistical significant difference between control and medical emergency team (MET) hospitals (adjusted P value 0.640; adjusted odds ratio (OR) 0.98; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.83 to 1.16). The UK-based trial found that outreach reduced in-hospital mortality (adjusted OR 0.52; 95% CI 0.32 to 0.85) compared with the control group. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: The evidence from this review highlights the diversity and poor methodological quality of most studies investigating outreach. The results of the two included studies showed either no evidence of the effectiveness of outreach or a reduction in overall mortality in patients receiving outreach. The lack of evidence on outreach requires further multi-site RCT's to determine potential effectiveness.