Nominal versus indexed debt: A quantitative horse race

The main arguments in favor and against nominal and indexed debts are the incentive to default through inflation versus hedging against unforeseen shocks. We model and calibrate these arguments to assess their quantitative importance. We use a dynamic equilibrium model with tax distortion, government outlays uncertainty, and contingent-debt service. Our framework also recognizes that contingent debt can be associated with incentive problems and lack of commitment. Thus, the benefits of unexpected inflation are tempered by higher interest rates. We obtain that costs from inflation more than offset the benefits from reducing tax distortions. We further discuss sustainability of nominal debt in developing (volatile) countries. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Testing market efficiency: Evidence from the NFL sports betting market

This article examines the efficiency of the National Football League (NFL) betting market. The standard ordinary least squares (OLS) regression methodology is replaced by a probit model. This circumvents potential econometric problems, and allows us to implement more sophisticated betting strategies where bets are placed only when there is a relatively high probability of success. In-sample tests indicate that probit-based betting strategies generate statistically significant profits. Whereas the profitability of a number of these betting strategies is confirmed by out-of-sample testing, there is some inconsistency among the remaining out-of-sample predictions. Our results also suggest that widely documented inefficiencies in this market tend to dissipate over time.

Brazilian experience with two conditioning regimens in patients with multiple sclerosis: BEAM/horse ATG and CY/rabbit ATG

Studies have shown that autologous hematopoietic SCT (HSCT) can be used as an intensive immunosuppressive therapy to treat refractory patients and to prevent the progression of multiple sclerosis (MS). This is a prospective multicentric Brazilian MS trial comparing two conditioning regimens: BEAM/horse ATG and CY/rabbit ATG. Most (80.4%) of the 41 subjects in the study had the secondary progressive MS subtype and the mean age was 42 years. The baseline EDSS score in 58.5% of the subjects was 6.5 and 78% had a score of 6.0 or higher, respectively. The complication rate during the intra-transplantation period was 56% for all patients: 71.4% of the patients in the BEAM/hATG group and 40% in the CY/rATG group (P = 0.04). Three subjects (7.5%) died of cardiac toxicity, sepsis and alveolar hemorrhage, all of them in the BEAM/ATG group. EFS was 58.54% for a ll patients: 47% in the BEAM/hATG group and 70% in the CY/rATG group (P = 0.288). In conclusion, the CY/rATG regimen seems to be associated with similar outcome results, but presented less toxicity when compared with the BEAM/hATG regimen. Long-term follow-up would be required to fully assess the differences in therapeutic effectiveness between the two regimens. Bone Marrow Transplantation (2010) 45, 239-248; doi:10.1038/bmt.2009.127; published online 6 July 2009