Essays on numerically efficient inference in nonlinear and non-Gaussian state space models, and commodity market analysis.

The first two articles build procedures to simulate vector of univariate states and estimate parameters in nonlinear and non Gaussian state space models. We propose state space speci fications that offer more flexibility in modeling dynamic relationship with latent variables. Our procedures are extension of the HESSIAN method of McCausland[2012]. Thus, they use approximation of the posterior density of the vector of states that allow to : simulate directly from the state vector posterior distribution, to simulate the states vector in one bloc and jointly with the vector of parameters, and to not allow data augmentation. These properties allow to build posterior simulators with very high relative numerical efficiency. Generic, they open a new path in nonlinear and non Gaussian state space analysis with limited contribution of the modeler. The third article is an essay in commodity market analysis. Private firms coexist with farmers' cooperatives in commodity markets in subsaharan african countries. The private firms have the biggest market share while some theoretical models predict they disappearance once confronted to farmers cooperatives. Elsewhere, some empirical studies and observations link cooperative incidence in a region with interpersonal trust, and thus to farmers trust toward cooperatives. We propose a model that sustain these empirical facts. A model where the cooperative reputation is a leading factor determining the market equilibrium of a price competition between a cooperative and a private firm

Productivity and optimum plant density of pigeonpea in different environments in Tanzania

The objective of the present study was to determine the optimum plant density of four pigeonpea genotypes, representing early, medium and late maturing types, grown in five contrasting environments in Tanzania. ICPL 86005 (early), Kat 50/3 and QP 37 (medium) and Local (late) were grown at four plant densities (40 000-320 000 plants/ha) in irrigated and rainfed conditions at Ilonga and under rainfed conditions at Kibaha, Selian and Ismani. At maturity, total above-ground biomass and seed yield (SY) were measured. The highest yields were obtained in the irrigated experiment at Ilonga, where the medium/late genotypes produced 25 t biomass/ha and 5 center dot 6 t seed/ha. The lowest SY were at Kibaha, 0 58 to 1 center dot 76 t/ha, where a severe drought occurred. In nearly all cases the response to density was linear or asymptotic. The response of ICPL 86005 was significantly different from the other three genotypes. The optimum density for SY varied from 37 000 to 227 000 plants/ha in ICPL 86005, compared with 3000 to 101000 plants/ha in the medium/late genotypes. The highest optimum density was at Selian and Ismani and the lowest at Ilonga and Kibaha, where drought occurred. Optimum densities therefore varied greatly with genotype (duration) and environment, and this variation needs to be considered when planning trials.

Effects of planting density and nitrogen application on seed yield and other morphological traits of the leafy vegetable kale (Brassica oleracea).

The relationship between food security and sustainable land use is considered to be of the uttermost importance to increase yields without having to increase the agricultural land area over which crops are grown. In the present study nitrogen concentration (25 and 85 kg ha-1) and planting density (6.7, 10 and 25 plants m-2) were investigated for their effect on whole plant physiology and pod seed yield in kale (Brassica oleracea), to determine if the fruit (pod) yield could be manipulated agronomically. Nitrogen concentration did not significantly affect seed yield and it is therefore recommended that the lower concentration be used commercially. Conversely planting density did have a significant effect with increases in seed yield observed at the highest planting density of 25 plants m-2, therefore this high planting density would be recommended commercially to maximise area efficiency, highlighting that simple agronomic changes are capable of increasing crop yields over a set area.

Comparison of three vascular endothelial markers in the evaluation of microvessel density in breast cancer

Purpose: To evaluate the microvessel density by comparing the performance of anti-factor VIII-related antigen, anti-CD31 and, anti-CD34 monoclonal antibodies in breast cancer. Methods: Twenty-three postmenopausal women diagnosed with Stage II breast cancer submitted to definitive surgical treatment were evaluated. The monoclonal antibodies used were anti-factor VIII, anti-CD31 and anti-CD34. Microvessels were counted in the areas of highest microvessel density in ten random fields (200 x). The data were analyzed using the Kruskal-Wallis nonparametric test (p < 0.05). Results: Mean microvessel densities with anti-factor VIII, anti-CD31 and anti-CD34 were 4.16 +/- 0.38, 4.09 +/- 0.23 and 6.59 +/- 0.42, respectively. Microvessel density as assessed by anti-CD34 was significantly greater than that detected by anti-CD31 or anti-factor VIII (p < 0.0001). There was no statistically significant difference between anti-CD31 and anti-factor VIII (p = 0.4889). Conclusion: The density of stained microvessels was greater and staining was more intense with anti-CD34 compared to anti-CD31 and anti-factor VII-related antigen.

Forecasting with Vector Nonlinear Time Series Models

This work concerns forecasting with vector nonlinear time series models when errorsare correlated. Point forecasts are numerically obtained using bootstrap methods andillustrated by two examples. Evaluation concentrates on studying forecast equality andencompassing. Nonlinear impulse responses are further considered and graphically sum-marized by highest density region. Finally, two macroeconomic data sets are used toillustrate our work. The forecasts from linear or nonlinear model could contribute usefulinformation absent in the forecasts form the other model.

Crescimento inicial e morfologia foliar em plantas de Enterolobium contortisiliquum (Vell.) Morong. E Erythrina velutina Mart. ex Benth, sob estresse hídrico

The Caatinga is the predominant vegetation type in semi-arid region of Brazil, where many inhabitants depend on hunting and gathering for survival, obtaining resources for: food and feed, folk medicine, timber production, etc. It‟s the dry ecosystem with highest population density in the world. The early stages of development are the most critical during the life cycle of a flowering plant and they‟re primordial to its establishment in environments exposed to water stress. Information about adjustments to the growth of the species, correlated with their studies of distribution in Seridó oriental potiguar, are an important ecological and economic standpoint, because they provide subsidies for the development of cultivation techniques, to programs of sustainable use and recovery of degraded areas. This thesis aimed to study the initial growth and foliar morphology in plants like Enterolobium contortisiliquum (Vell.) Morong. (tamboril) and Erythrina velutina Mart. ex Benth (mulungu), species of occurrence in the Caatinga, under water stress. After sowing and emergency, the seedlings were exposed to three water regimes: 450 (control), 225 (moderate stress) and 112.5 (severe stress) mm of water slide for 40 days. Seeding occurred in bags of 5 kg and after the establishment of seedlings thinning was carried out leaving a plantlet per bag. At the beginning the waterings occurred daily with distilled water, passing to be on alternate days after thinning. Twenty and forty days after the thinning seedlings collections were held to be done analysis of growth and biomass partition. When compared to the control group, the treatments with water stress showed reduction in the growth of the aerial part, growth of the greater root, number of leaves and leaflets, dry leaf area and total phytomass in both species, but in general, this effect was most marked for E. velutina. Regarding the partition of biomass, there were few changes throughout the experiment. Morphological changes in the leaves as a function of stress were not significant, however, there was a trend, in both species, to produce narrower leaves, that facilitate heat loss to the environment. It has not been possible to establish a positive relationship between inhibition of growth and distribution of species, whereas E. velutina is a species of most common occurrence in Seridó oriental potiguar. In this way, other aspects should be taken into account when studying the adaptation of species the dry environments, such as salinity, presence of heavy metals, wind speed, etc

Digital radiographic evaluation of optical density of porcelains used for fabrication of inlay/onlay prosthesis

The purpose of this article was to compare the mean value of optical density of four porcelains commonly used for fabrication of inlay/ onlay prostheses using direct digital radiograph. The sample consisted of 20 2-mm thick porcelain specimens (measured by digital pachymeter): Empress (Ivoclair), Simbios (Degussa), Vita Omega 900 and Vitadur Alpha (Vita Zahnfabrik). The values of optical density of the specimens were expressed in millimeters aluminum equivalent (mm eq Al). The samples were X-rayed using two charge coupled devices (CCD) - RVG (Trophy) - Visualix (Gendex) and a phosphor plate system - Digora (Soredex). The optical density reading was performed with Image Tool 1.28 in a total of 110 measurements. Statistical analysis showed that there were statistically significant differences in all materials studied (p < 0.05) regardless of the radiographic system used. The highest optical density value was found for Omega 900 (1.8988 mmeqAl - Visualix - Gendex) and the lowest for Vitadur Alpha (0.8647 - Visualix - Gendex). Thus, the material presenting the highest degree of optical density was Omega 900, Empress and Simbios presented intermediate optical density values, Vitadur Alpha presented the lowest value, and the optical density of porcelains was not influenced by the digital radiography systems.

Glandular trichome density and essential oil composition in leaves and inflorescences of Lippia origanoides Kunth (Verbenaceae) in the Brazilian Cerrado

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Changes in irradiance and energy density in relation to different curing distances

The present study aimed to assess the influence of curing distance on the loss of irradiance and power density of four curing light devices. The behavior in terms of power density of four different dental curing devices was analyzed (Valo, Elipar 2, Radii-Cal, and Optilux-401) using three different distances of photopolymerization (0 mm, 4 mm, and 8 mm). All devices had their power density measured using a MARC simulator. Ten measurements were made per device at each distance. The total amount of energy delivered and the required curing time to achieve 16 J/cm2 of energy was also calculated. Data were statistically analyzed with one-way analysis of variance and Tukey’s tests (p < 0.05). The curing distance significantly interfered with the loss of power density for all curing light devices, with the farthest distance generating the lowest power density and consequently the longer time to achieve an energy density of 16 J/cm2 (p < 0.01). Comparison of devices showed that Valo, in extra power mode, showed the best results at all distances, followed by Valo in high power mode, Valo in standard mode, Elipar 2, Radii-Cal, and Optilux-401 halogen lamp (p < 0.01). These findings indicate that all curing lights induced a significant loss of irradiance and total energy when the light was emitted farther from the probe. The Valo device in extra power mode showed the highest power density and the shortest time to achieve an energy density of 16 J/cm2 at all curing distances.

Restaurações cerâmicas minimamente invasivas executadas por cirurgiões dentistas com diferentes níveis de experiência profissional: estudo clínico cego, longitudinal e prospectivo

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Visual exploration behaviour during clock reading in Alzheimer's disease

Eye movement behaviour during visual exploration of 24 patients with probable Alzheimer's disease and 24 age-matched controls was compared in a clock reading task. Controls were found to focus exploration on distinct areas at the end of each clock hand. The sum of these two areas of highest fixation density was defined as the informative region of interest (ROI). In Alzheimer's disease patients, visual exploration was less focused, with fewer fixations inside the ROI, and the time until the first fixation was inside the ROI was significantly delayed. Changes of fixation distribution correlated significantly with the ability to read the clock correctly, but did not correlate with dementia severity. In Alzheimer's disease patients, fixations were longer and saccade amplitudes were smaller. The altered visual exploration in Alzheimer's disease might be related to parietal dysfunction or to an imbalance between a degraded occipito-parietal and relatively preserved occipito-temporal visual network.

Photochemically induced nuclear spin polarization in reaction centers of photosystem II observed by 13C-solid-state NMR reveals a strongly asymmetric electronic structure of the P680.+ primary donor chlorophyll

We report 13C magic angle spinning NMR observation of photochemically induced dynamic nuclear spin polarization (photo- CIDNP) in the reaction center (RC) of photosystem II (PS2). The light-enhanced NMR signals of the natural abundance 13C provide information on the electronic structure of the primary electron donor P680 (chlorophyll a molecules absorbing around 680 nm) and on the pz spin density pattern in its oxidized form, P680⨥. Most centerband signals can be attributed to a single chlorophyll a (Chl a) cofactor that has little interaction with other pigments. The chemical shift anisotropy of the most intense signals is characteristic for aromatic carbon atoms. The data reveal a pronounced asymmetry of the electronic spin density distribution within the P680⨥. PS2 shows only a single broad and intense emissive signal, which is assigned to both the C-10 and C-15 methine carbon atoms. The spin density appears shifted toward ring III. This shift is remarkable, because, for monomeric Chl a radical cations in solution, the region of highest spin density is around ring II. It leads to a first hypothesis as to how the planet can provide itself with the chemical potential to split water and generate an oxygen atmosphere using the Chl a macroaromatic cycle. A local electrostatic field close to ring III can polarize the electronic charge and associated spin density and increase the redox potential of P680 by stabilizing the highest occupied molecular orbital, without a major change of color. This field could be produced, e.g., by protonation of the keto group of ring V. Finally, the radical cation electronic structure in PS2 is different from that in the bacterial RC, which shows at least four emissive centerbands, indicating a symmetric spin density distribution over the entire bacteriochlorophyll macrocycle.

On some Concepts of Residuals

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 60E10, 62G15, 62M20

Predator nonconsumptive effects on prey recruitment weaken with recruit density, supplementary material

We investigated the nonconsumptive effects (NCEs) of predatory dogwhelks (Nucella lapillus) on intertidal barnacle (Semibalanus balanoides) recruitment through field experiments on the Gulf of St. Lawrence coast and the Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia, Canada. We studied the recruitment seasons (May-June) of 2011 and 2013. In 2011, the Gulf coast had five times more nearshore phytoplankton (food for barnacle larvae and recruits) during the recruitment season and yielded a 58% higher barnacle recruit density than the Atlantic coast at the end of the recruitment season. In 2013, phytoplankton levels and barnacle recruit density were similar on both coasts and also lower than for the Gulf coast in 2011. Using the comparative-experimental method, the manipulation of dogwhelk presence (without allowing physical contact with prey) revealed that dogwhelk cues limited barnacle recruitment under moderate recruit densities (Atlantic 2011/2013 and Gulf 2013) but had no effect under a high recruit density (Gulf 2011). Barnacle recruits attract settling larvae through chemical cues. Thus, the highest recruit density appears to have neutralized dogwhelk effects. This study suggests that the predation risk perceived by settling larvae may decrease with increasing recruit density and that prey food supply may indirectly influence predator NCEs on prey recruitment.

Efeitos tóxicos induzidos pelos nanomateriais Fulereno (C60) e Nanoprata no Poliqueto Laeonereis Acuta (Nereididae) e nas comunidades bacterianas que habitam sua superfície corporal

O fulereno (C60) pertence a uma família de nanomateriais (NM) constituída exclusivamente de átomos de carbono, sendo encontrado na forma de suspensão na água (nC60). A nanoprata (nAg) possui um excepcional e amplo espectro bactericida e um custo de fabricação relativamente baixo. No entanto, pouco se sabe a respeito dos eventuais efeitos tóxicos induzidos por estes NM em organismos estuarinos. O poliqueto Laeonereis acuta tem o muco colonizado por comunidades bacterianas. Há registros de que L. acuta apresenta um gradiente corporal para concentração de EAO e capacidade antioxidante total. Neste estudo, os poliquetos foram expostos in vivo durante 24 horas ao nC60 e à nAg, separadamente. Após isso, as unidades formadoras de colônias (UFC) bacterianas foram contadas e pesadas, além de serem realizadas diversas medições bioquímicas nos poliquetos e nas bactérias. Os números de UFC bacterianas expostas ao nC60 foi menor na concentração de 0.01mg/L e os números de UFC bacterianas expostas à nAg foram similares aos dados de biomassa, diminuindo na maior concentração (1.0 mg/L) (p<0.05). A capacidade antioxidante contra radicais peroxil em homogeneizados bacterianos expostos ao nC60 foi menor na concentração de 0.1mg/L quando comparado ao controle (p<0.05). A região anterior apresentou menor capacidade antioxidante (p<0.05) nos poliquetos expostos a 1.0 mg/L, quando comparado ao controle. Os poliquetos expostos à nAg apresentaram menor capacidade antioxidante na região posterior na concentração de 1.0 mg/L quando comparado ao controle (p<0.05). O conteúdo de peróxidos lipídicos (TBARS) foi reduzido na região anterior dos poliquetos expostos nas duas menores concentrações ( 0.01 e 0.1 mg/L) de nC60 (p<0.05). Na região corporal posterior, somente os organismos expostos a maior concentração de nC60 (1.0 mg/L) mostraram aumento na concentração de TBARS quando comparado ao grupo controle (p<0.05). A atividade da enzima glutationa-Stransferase (GST) foi aumentada (p<0.05) na região média e posterior dos poliquetos expostos a 0.1 mg/L de nC60. Como conclusões pode se dizer que os dois NM induziram efeitos tóxicos ainda numa situação (escuridão) onde o fulereno não é fotoexcitado. O aumento na produção e comercialização de produtos com NM levanta a questão dos riscos ambientais associados ao desenvolvimento da nanotecnologia.