Prevenção e controle da erosão urbana: bacia do Córrego do Limoeiro e bacia do Córrego do Cedro, municípios de Presidente Prudente e Álvares Machado, SP

Pós-graduação em Geociências e Meio Ambiente - IGCE

Does the plankton community follow the horizontal water quality heterogeneity in a tropical urban reservoir (Guarapiranga reservoir, Sao Paulo, Brazil)?

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Prevalence of anogenital warts in Men with HIV/AIDS and associated factors

Infection with human papilloma virus (HPV) is the most common sexually transmitted disease in the world. Among the 630 million new cases of HPV that occur each year, 30 million develop anogenital warts. Although subclinical infection with HPV is the most common cause, genital warts are also associated with immunosuppression caused by HIV. In view of the high prevalence of HPV/HIV co-infection particularly among men who have sex with men, the objectives of this study were to determine the prevalence of anogenital warts in men with HIV/AIDS and to identify associated factors. A cross-sectional study was conducted on 159 men with HIV/AIDS consecutively selected at a referral service in Botucatu, São Paulo, Brazil, in which the association between sociodemographic, behavioral and clinical variables and the presence of anogenital warts was evaluated. After hierarchical analysis of the data, variables presenting a p value ≤ 0.2 were entered into an unconditional multivariate logistic regression model. Forty-nine (31%) of the HIV-positive patients had anogenital warts. The mean age was 44.6 ± 9.6 years. The main factors associated with the presence of anogenital warts were irregular antiretroviral treatment and genital herpes(HSV). The present study demonstrate that anogenital warts occur in almost one-third of the male population infected with HIV and factors associated with a higher risk of being diagnosed with anogenital warts were irregular cART use and co-infection with HSV, other variables could not be associated.

Cognitive binding in schizophrenia: weakened integration of temporal intersensory information

Cognitive functioning is based on binding processes, by which different features and elements of neurocognition are integrated and coordinated. Binding is an essential ingredient of, for instance, Gestalt perception. We have implemented a paradigm of causality perception based on the work of Albert Michotte, in which 2 identical discs move from opposite sides of a monitor, steadily toward, and then past one another. Their coincidence generates an ambiguous percept of either "streaming" or "bouncing," which the subjects (34 schizophrenia spectrum patients and 34 controls with mean age 27.9 y) were instructed to report. The latter perception is a marker of the binding processes underlying perceived causality (type I binding). In addition to this visual task, acoustic stimuli were presented at different times during the task (150 ms before and after visual coincidence), which can modulate perceived causality. This modulation by intersensory and temporally delayed stimuli is viewed as a different type of binding (type II). We show here, using a mixed-effects hierarchical analysis, that type II binding distinguishes schizophrenia spectrum patients from healthy controls, whereas type I binding does not. Type I binding may even be excessive in some patients, especially those with positive symptoms; Type II binding, however, was generally attenuated in patients. The present findings point to ways in which the disconnection (or Gestalt) hypothesis of schizophrenia can be refined, suggesting more specific markers of neurocognitive functioning and potential targets of treatment.

A methodology for formally modeling and analyzing software architecture of mobile agent systems

A methodology for formally modeling and analyzing software architecture of mobile agent systems provides a solid basis to develop high quality mobile agent systems, and the methodology is helpful to study other distributed and concurrent systems as well. However, it is a challenge to provide the methodology because of the agent mobility in mobile agent systems.^ The methodology was defined from two essential parts of software architecture: a formalism to define the architectural models and an analysis method to formally verify system properties. The formalism is two-layer Predicate/Transition (PrT) nets extended with dynamic channels, and the analysis method is a hierarchical approach to verify models on different levels. The two-layer modeling formalism smoothly transforms physical models of mobile agent systems into their architectural models. Dynamic channels facilitate the synchronous communication between nets, and they naturally capture the dynamic architecture configuration and agent mobility of mobile agent systems. Component properties are verified based on transformed individual components, system properties are checked in a simplified system model, and interaction properties are analyzed on models composing from involved nets. Based on the formalism and the analysis method, this researcher formally modeled and analyzed a software architecture of mobile agent systems, and designed an architectural model of a medical information processing system based on mobile agents. The model checking tool SPIN was used to verify system properties such as reachability, concurrency and safety of the medical information processing system. ^ From successful modeling and analyzing the software architecture of mobile agent systems, the conclusion is that PrT nets extended with channels are a powerful tool to model mobile agent systems, and the hierarchical analysis method provides a rigorous foundation for the modeling tool. The hierarchical analysis method not only reduces the complexity of the analysis, but also expands the application scope of model checking techniques. The results of formally modeling and analyzing the software architecture of the medical information processing system show that model checking is an effective and an efficient way to verify software architecture. Moreover, this system shows a high level of flexibility, efficiency and low cost of mobile agent technologies. ^

Hierarchical cluster analysis of groups of individuals : application to business data

3rd SMTDA Conference Proceedings, 11-14 June 2014, Lisbon Portugal.

Cognitive Behavior Therapy for Obsessive-Compulsive Behavior in Children with Autism Spectrum Disorder: A Comparison of Hierarchical Linear Modelling and Visual Analysis

Behavioral researchers commonly use single subject designs to evaluate the effects of a given treatment. Several different methods of data analysis are used, each with their own set of methodological strengths and limitations. Visual inspection is commonly used as a method of analyzing data which assesses the variability, level, and trend both within and between conditions (Cooper, Heron, & Heward, 2007). In an attempt to quantify treatment outcomes, researchers developed two methods for analysing data called Percentage of Non-overlapping Data Points (PND) and Percentage of Data Points Exceeding the Median (PEM). The purpose of the present study is to compare and contrast the use of Hierarchical Linear Modelling (HLM), PND and PEM in single subject research. The present study used 39 behaviours, across 17 participants to compare treatment outcomes of a group cognitive behavioural therapy program, using PND, PEM, and HLM on three response classes of Obsessive Compulsive Behaviour in children with Autism Spectrum Disorder. Findings suggest that PEM and HLM complement each other and both add invaluable information to the overall treatment results. Future research should consider using both PEM and HLM when analysing single subject designs, specifically grouped data with variability.

Global trends and factors associated with the illegal killing of elephants: a hierarchical bayesian analysis of carcass encounter data

Elephant poaching and the ivory trade remain high on the agenda at meetings of the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES). Well-informed debates require robust estimates of trends, the spatial distribution of poaching, and drivers of poaching. We present an analysis of trends and drivers of an indicator of elephant poaching of all elephant species. The site-based monitoring system known as Monitoring the Illegal Killing of Elephants (MIKE), set up by the 10th Conference of the Parties of CITES in 1997, produces carcass encounter data reported mainly by anti-poaching patrols. Data analyzed were site by year totals of 6,337 carcasses from 66 sites in Africa and Asia from 2002–2009. Analysis of these observational data is a serious challenge to traditional statistical methods because of the opportunistic and non-random nature of patrols, and the heterogeneity across sites. Adopting a Bayesian hierarchical modeling approach, we used the proportion of carcasses that were illegally killed (PIKE) as a poaching index, to estimate the trend and the effects of site- and country-level factors associated with poaching. Important drivers of illegal killing that emerged at country level were poor governance and low levels of human development, and at site level, forest cover and area of the site in regions where human population density is low. After a drop from 2002, PIKE remained fairly constant from 2003 until 2006, after which it increased until 2008. The results for 2009 indicate a decline. Sites with PIKE ranging from the lowest to the highest were identified. The results of the analysis provide a sound information base for scientific evidence-based decision making in the CITES process.

Analysis of functional networks involved in motor execution and motor imagery using combined hierarchical clustering analysis and independent component analysis

Cognitive experiments involving motor execution (ME) and motor imagery (MI) have been intensively studied using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). However, the functional networks of a multitask paradigm which include ME and MI were not widely explored. In this article, we aimed to investigate the functional networks involved in MI and ME using a method combining the hierarchical clustering analysis (HCA) and the independent component analysis (ICA). Ten right-handed subjects were recruited to participate a multitask experiment with conditions such as visual cue, MI, ME and rest. The results showed that four activation clusters were found including parts of the visual network, ME network, the MI network and parts of the resting state network. Furthermore, the integration among these functional networks was also revealed. The findings further demonstrated that the combined HCA with ICA approach was an effective method to analyze the fMRI data of multitasks.

Accounting for uncertainty in ecological analysis: the strengths and limitations of hierarchical statistical modeling

Analyses of ecological data should account for the uncertainty in the process(es) that generated the data. However, accounting for these uncertainties is a difficult task, since ecology is known for its complexity. Measurement and/or process errors are often the only sources of uncertainty modeled when addressing complex ecological problems, yet analyses should also account for uncertainty in sampling design, in model specification, in parameters governing the specified model, and in initial and boundary conditions. Only then can we be confident in the scientific inferences and forecasts made from an analysis. Probability and statistics provide a framework that accounts for multiple sources of uncertainty. Given the complexities of ecological studies, the hierarchical statistical model is an invaluable tool. This approach is not new in ecology, and there are many examples (both Bayesian and non-Bayesian) in the literature illustrating the benefits of this approach. In this article, we provide a baseline for concepts, notation, and methods, from which discussion on hierarchical statistical modeling in ecology can proceed. We have also planted some seeds for discussion and tried to show where the practical difficulties lie. Our thesis is that hierarchical statistical modeling is a powerful way of approaching ecological analysis in the presence of inevitable but quantifiable uncertainties, even if practical issues sometimes require pragmatic compromises.

Why Are Women With Cervical Cancer Not Being Diagnosed in Preinvasive Phase? An Analysis of Risk Factors Using a Hierarchical Model

Objective: To assess the risk factors for delayed diagnosis of uterine cervical lesions. Materials and Methods: This is a case-control study that recruited 178 women at 2 Brazilian hospitals. The cases (n = 74) were composed of women with a late diagnosis of a lesion in the uterine cervix (invasive carcinoma in any stage). The controls (n = 104) were composed of women with cervical lesions diagnosed early on (low-or high-grade intraepithelial lesions). The analysis was performed by means of logistic regression model using a hierarchical model. The socioeconomic and demographic variables were included at level I (distal). Level II (intermediate) included the personal and family antecedents and knowledge about the Papanicolaou test and human papillomavirus. Level III (proximal) encompassed the variables relating to individuals' care for their own health, gynecologic symptoms, and variables relating to access to the health care system. Results: The risk factors for late diagnosis of uterine cervical lesions were age older than 40 years (odds ratio [OR] = 10.4; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.3-48.4), not knowing the difference between the Papanicolaou test and gynecological pelvic examinations (OR, = 2.5; 95% CI, 1.3-4.9), not thinking that the Papanicolaou test was important (odds ratio [OR], 4.2; 95% CI, 1.3-13.4), and abnormal vaginal bleeding (OR, 15.0; 95% CI, 6.5-35.0). Previous treatment for sexually transmissible disease was a protective factor (OR, 0.3; 95% CI, 0.1-0.8) for delayed diagnosis. Conclusions: Deficiencies in cervical cancer prevention programs in developing countries are not simply a matter of better provision and coverage of Papanicolaou tests. The misconception about the Papanicolaou test is a serious educational problem, as demonstrated by the present study.

An empirical comparison of methods for meta-analysis of diagnostic accuracy showed hierarchical models are necessary

OBJECTIVE: Meta-analysis of studies of the accuracy of diagnostic tests currently uses a variety of methods. Statistically rigorous hierarchical models require expertise and sophisticated software. We assessed whether any of the simpler methods can in practice give adequately accurate and reliable results. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: We reviewed six methods for meta-analysis of diagnostic accuracy: four simple commonly used methods (simple pooling, separate random-effects meta-analyses of sensitivity and specificity, separate meta-analyses of positive and negative likelihood ratios, and the Littenberg-Moses summary receiver operating characteristic [ROC] curve) and two more statistically rigorous approaches using hierarchical models (bivariate random-effects meta-analysis and hierarchical summary ROC curve analysis). We applied the methods to data from a sample of eight systematic reviews chosen to illustrate a variety of patterns of results. RESULTS: In each meta-analysis, there was substantial heterogeneity between the results of different studies. Simple pooling of results gave misleading summary estimates of sensitivity and specificity in some meta-analyses, and the Littenberg-Moses method produced summary ROC curves that diverged from those produced by more rigorous methods in some situations. CONCLUSION: The closely related hierarchical summary ROC curve or bivariate models should be used as the standard method for meta-analysis of diagnostic accuracy.

An Extended Hierarchical Task Analysis for Error Prediction in Medical Devices

This paper introduces an extended hierarchical task analysis (HTA) methodology devised to evaluate and compare user interfaces on volumetric infusion pumps. The pumps were studied along the dimensions of overall usability and propensity for generating human error. With HTA as our framework, we analyzed six pumps on a variety of common tasks using Norman’s Action theory. The introduced method of evaluation divides the problem space between the external world of the device interface and the user’s internal cognitive world, allowing for predictions of potential user errors at the human-device level. In this paper, one detailed analysis is provided as an example, comparing two different pumps on two separate tasks. The results demonstrate the inherent variation, often the cause of usage errors, found with infusion pumps being used in hospitals today. The reported methodology is a useful tool for evaluating human performance and predicting potential user errors with infusion pumps and other simple medical devices.

Design and analysis for three level hierarchical structures with count response

In numerous intervention studies and education field trials, random assignment to treatment occurs in clusters rather than at the level of observation. This departure of random assignment of units may be due to logistics, political feasibility, or ecological validity. Data within the same cluster or grouping are often correlated. Application of traditional regression techniques, which assume independence between observations, to clustered data produce consistent parameter estimates. However such estimators are often inefficient as compared to methods which incorporate the clustered nature of the data into the estimation procedure (Neuhaus 1993).1 Multilevel models, also known as random effects or random components models, can be used to account for the clustering of data by estimating higher level, or group, as well as lower level, or individual variation. Designing a study, in which the unit of observation is nested within higher level groupings, requires the determination of sample sizes at each level. This study investigates the design and analysis of various sampling strategies for a 3-level repeated measures design on the parameter estimates when the outcome variable of interest follows a Poisson distribution. ^ Results study suggest that second order PQL estimation produces the least biased estimates in the 3-level multilevel Poisson model followed by first order PQL and then second and first order MQL. The MQL estimates of both fixed and random parameters are generally satisfactory when the level 2 and level 3 variation is less than 0.10. However, as the higher level error variance increases, the MQL estimates become increasingly biased. If convergence of the estimation algorithm is not obtained by PQL procedure and higher level error variance is large, the estimates may be significantly biased. In this case bias correction techniques such as bootstrapping should be considered as an alternative procedure. For larger sample sizes, those structures with 20 or more units sampled at levels with normally distributed random errors produced more stable estimates with less sampling variance than structures with an increased number of level 1 units. For small sample sizes, sampling fewer units at the level with Poisson variation produces less sampling variation, however this criterion is no longer important when sample sizes are large. ^ 1Neuhaus J (1993). “Estimation efficiency and Tests of Covariate Effects with Clustered Binary Data”. Biometrics , 49, 989–996^