Hybrid deterministic-statistical modelling of built-up structures

When used correctly, Statistical Energy Analysis (SEA) can provide good predictions of high frequency vibration levels in built-up structures. Unfortunately, the assumptions that underlie SEA break down as the frequency of excitation is reduced, and the method does not yield accurate predictions at "medium" frequencies (and neither does the Finite Element Method, which is limited to low frequencies). A basic problem is that parts of the system have a short wavelength of deformation and meet the requirements of SEA, while other parts of the system do not - this is often referred to as the "mid-frequency" problem, and there is a broad class of mid-frequency vibration problems that are of great concern to industry. In this paper, a coupled deterministic-statistical approach referred to as the Hybrid Method (Shorter & Langley, 2004) is briefly described, and some results that demonstrate how the method overcomes the aforementioned difficulties are presented.

Statistical modelling of cement slurries for self compacting SIFCON containing silica fume

This paper reports a study carried out to develop a self-compacting fibre reinforced concrete containing a high fibre content with slurry infiltrated fibre concrete (SIFCON). The SIFCON was developed with 10% of steel fibres which are infiltrated by self-compacting cement slurry without any vibration. Traditionally, the infiltration of the slurry into the layer of fibres is carried out under intensive vibration. A two-level fractional factorial design was used to optimise the properties of cement-based slurries with four independent variables, such as dosage of silica fume, dosage of superplasticiser, sand content, and water/cement ratio (W/C). Rheometer, mini-slump test, Lombardi plate cohesion meter, J-fibre penetration test, and induced bleeding were used to assess the behaviour of fresh cement slurries. The compressive strengths at 7 and 28 days were also measured. The statistical models are valid for slurries made with W/C of 0.40 to 0.50, 50 to 100% of sand by mass of cement, 5 to 10% of silica fume by mass of cement, and SP dosage of 0.6 to 1.2% by mass of cement. This model makes it possible to evaluate the effect of individual variables on measured parameters of fresh cement slurries. The proposed models offered useful information to understand trade-offs between mix variables and compare the responses obtained from various test methods in order to optimise self-compacting SIFCON.

Chemometric techniques in multivariate statistical modelling of process plant

The techniques of principal component analysis (PCA) and partial least squares (PLS) are introduced from the point of view of providing a multivariate statistical method for modelling process plants. The advantages and limitations of PCA and PLS are discussed from the perspective of the type of data and problems that might be encountered in this application area. These concepts are exemplified by two case studies dealing first with data from a continuous stirred tank reactor (CSTR) simulation and second a literature source describing a low-density polyethylene (LDPE) reactor simulation.

Development of a novel continuous statistical modelling technique for detecting the adulteration of extra virgin olive oil with hazelnut oil by using spectroscopic data

The adulteration of extra virgin olive oil with other vegetable oils is a certain problem with economic and health consequences. Current official methods have been proved insufficient to detect such adulterations. One of the most concerning and undetectable adulterations with other vegetable oils is the addition of hazelnut oil. The main objective of this work was to develop a novel dimensionality reduction technique able to model oil mixtures as a part of an integrated pattern recognition solution. This final solution attempts to identify hazelnut oil adulterants in extra virgin olive oil at low percentages based on spectroscopic chemical fingerprints. The proposed Continuous Locality Preserving Projections (CLPP) technique allows the modelling of the continuous nature of the produced in house admixtures as data series instead of discrete points. This methodology has potential to be extended to other mixtures and adulterations of food products. The maintenance of the continuous structure of the data manifold lets the better visualization of this examined classification problem and facilitates a more accurate utilisation of the manifold for detecting the adulterants.

Intro to Statistical Modelling

Lecture notes for a first year statistical modelling course.

Statistical modelling of grapevine yield in the Port Wine region under present and future climate conditions

The impact of projected climate change on wine production was analysed for the Demarcated Region of Douro, Portugal. A statistical grapevine yield model (GYM) was developed using climate parameters as predictors. Statistically significant correlations were identified between annual yield and monthly mean temperatures and monthly precipitation totals during the growing cycle. These atmospheric factors control grapevine yield in the region, with the GYM explaining 50.4% of the total variance in the yield time series in recent decades. Anomalously high March rainfall (during budburst, shoot and inflorescence development) favours yield, as well as anomalously high temperatures and low precipitation amounts in May and June (May: flowering and June: berry development). The GYM was applied to a regional climate model output, which was shown to realistically reproduce the GYM predictors. Finally, using ensemble simulations under the A1B emission scenario, projections for GYM-derived yield in the Douro Region, and for the whole of the twenty-first century, were analysed. A slight upward trend in yield is projected to occur until about 2050, followed by a steep and continuous increase until the end of the twenty-first century, when yield is projected to be about 800 kg/ha above current values. While this estimate is based on meteorological parameters alone, changes due to elevated CO2 may further enhance this effect. In spite of the associated uncertainties, it can be stated that projected climate change may significantly benefit wine yield in the Douro Valley.

Statistical modelling of extreme rainfall in Madeira Island

Extreme rainfall events have triggered a significant number of flash floods in Madeira Island along its past and recent history. Madeira is a volcanic island where the spatial rainfall distribution is strongly affected by its rugged topography. In this thesis, annual maximum of daily rainfall data from 25 rain gauge stations located in Madeira Island were modelled by the generalised extreme value distribution. Also, the hypothesis of a Gumbel distribution was tested by two methods and the existence of a linear trend in both distributions parameters was analysed. Estimates for the 50– and 100–year return levels were also obtained. Still in an univariate context, the assumption that a distribution function belongs to the domain of attraction of an extreme value distribution for monthly maximum rainfall data was tested for the rainy season. The available data was then analysed in order to find the most suitable domain of attraction for the sampled distribution. In a different approach, a search for thresholds was also performed for daily rainfall values through a graphical analysis. In a multivariate context, a study was made on the dependence between extreme rainfall values from the considered stations based on Kendall’s τ measure. This study suggests the influence of factors such as altitude, slope orientation, distance between stations and their proximity of the sea on the spatial distribution of extreme rainfall. Groups of three pairwise associated stations were also obtained and an adjustment was made to a family of extreme value copulas involving the Marshall–Olkin family, whose parameters can be written as a function of Kendall’s τ association measures of the obtained pairs.

Anaerobic threshold estimation by statistical modelling.

Anaerobic threshold (AT) is usually estimated as a change point problem by visual analysis of the cardiorespiratory response to incremental dynamic exercise. In this study, two phase linear (TPL) models of the linear-linear and linear-quadratic type were used for the estimation of AT. The correlation coefficient between the classical and statistical approaches was 0.88, and 0.89 after outlier exclusion. The TPL models provide a simple method for estimating AT that can be easily implemented using a digital computer for the automatic pattern recognition of AT.

Statistical modelling of variability in sediment-water nutrient and oxygen fluxes

Peer reviewed

Statistical modelling of the rheological and mucoadhesive properties of aqueous poly(methylvinylether-co-maleic acid) networks: Redefining biomedical applications and the relationship between viscoelasticity and mucoadhesion

Poly(methylvinylether-co-maleic acid) (PMVE/MA) is commonly used as a component of pharmaceutical platforms, principally to enhance interactions with biological substrates (mucoadhesion). However, the limited knowledge on the rheological properties of this polymer and their relationships with mucoadhesion has negated the biomedical use of this polymer as a mono-component platform. This study presents a comprehensive study of the rheological properties of aqueous PMVE/MA platforms and defines their relationships with mucoadhesion using multiple regression analysis. Using dilute solution viscometry the intrinsic viscosities of un-neutralised PMVE/MA and PMVE/MA neutralised using NaOH or TEA were 22.32 ± 0.89 dL g-1, 274.80 ± 1.94 dL g-1 and 416.49 ± 2.21 dL g-1 illustrating greater polymer chain expansion following neutralisation using Triethylamine (TEA). PMVE/MA platforms exhibited shear-thinning properties. Increasing polymer concentration increased the consistencies, zero shear rate (ZSR) viscosities (determined from flow rheometry), storage and loss moduli, dynamic viscosities (defined using oscillatory analysis) and mucoadhesive properties, yet decreased the loss tangents of the neutralised polymer platforms. TEA neutralised systems possessed significantly and substantially greater consistencies, ZSR and dynamic viscosities, storage and loss moduli, mucoadhesion and lower loss tangents than their NaOH counterparts. Multiple regression analysis enabled identification of the dominant role of polymer viscoelasticity on mucoadhesion (r > 0.98). The mucoadhesive properties of PMVE/MA platforms were considerable and were greater than those of other platforms that have successfully been shown to enhance in vivo retention when applied to the oral cavity, indicating a positive role for PMVE/MA mono-component platforms for pharmaceutical and biomedical applications.

Continuous statistical modelling for rapid detection of adulteration of extra virgin olive oil using mid infrared and Raman spectroscopic data

The main objective of this work was to develop a novel dimensionality reduction technique as a part of an integrated pattern recognition solution capable of identifying adulterants such as hazelnut oil in extra virgin olive oil at low percentages based on spectroscopic chemical fingerprints. A novel Continuous Locality Preserving Projections (CLPP) technique is proposed which allows the modelling of the continuous nature of the produced in-house admixtures as data series instead of discrete points. The maintenance of the continuous structure of the data manifold enables the better visualisation of this examined classification problem and facilitates the more accurate utilisation of the manifold for detecting the adulterants. The performance of the proposed technique is validated with two different spectroscopic techniques (Raman and Fourier transform infrared, FT-IR). In all cases studied, CLPP accompanied by k-Nearest Neighbors (kNN) algorithm was found to outperform any other state-of-the-art pattern recognition techniques.

Vancomycin-resistente Enterokokken (VRE) bei Patienten und in der aquatischen Umwelt

Vancomycin-resistente Enterokokken (VRE) treten als Erreger von nosokomialen Infektionen immer häufiger auf und schränken die Therapiemöglichkeiten deutlich ein. In den eigenen Untersuchungen wurde das Vorkommen von Vancomycin-resistenten Enterococcus faecium (VREf) bei Patienten und in der aquatischen Umwelt (Abwasser und Oberflächenwasser) über einen Zeitraum von sechs Jahren (2004 bis 2009) untersucht. Eine Genotypisierung mittels Pulsfeld-Gelelektrophorese (PFGE) von 294 VREf sollte Aufschluss über genetische Verwandtschaften geben. rnEs konnte gezeigt werden, dass VREf in der aquatischen Umwelt weit verbreitet sind. In Bezug auf ihre genetische Diversität zeigten sie ein breites Spektrum an Variabilität. Ebenso konnte im zeitlichen Auftreten von VREf-Typen eine Dynamik beobachtet werden, wodurch sich Veränderungen der Population mit zeitlichem Wechsel ergaben. Enge Verwandtschaften zwischen VREf von Patienten und VREf aus der aquatischen Umwelt konnten nachgewiesen werden. Für zwei VREf gelang der Nachweis des Eintrags in die aquatische Umwelt, von Patienten aus dem Krankenhaus als Eintragsquelle ausgehend, während Zeiten eines Ausbruchs mit nosokomialen Erregern auf den Stationen. rnZusätzlich zur VREf-Population wurden außerdem die Wirkungsweise und Effizienz einer Elektroimpulsanlage untersucht, um ein zukunftsorientiertes Verfahren zur Desinfektion von bakteriell belasteten Abwässern zu entwickeln. Weiterführend wurde getestet, inwiefern sich verschiedene klinisch relevante VREf durch ein gepulstes elektrisches Feld abtöten lassen. rnEs konnte gezeigt werden, dass das synergistische Zusammenwirken des elektrischen Feldes und der Prozesstemperatur die Höhe der Keimzahlreduktion der Enterokokken beeinflussen. Dabei wurde eine isolatabhängige Elektroresistenz der VREf gegenüber gepulsten elektrischen Feldern bewiesen. Die untersuchten VREf ließen sich, im Gegensatz zu einem Vancomycin-sensiblen Stamm, nicht effizient durch die Elektroimpulsanlage abtöten, was den praktischen Einsatz einer solchen Elektroimpulsanlage als wirkungsvolles Desinfektionsverfahren in Frage stellte.