Do Measurement Errors in GDP Announcements Cause Output Fluctuations?

This thesis studies empirically whether measurement errors in aggregate production statistics affect sentiment and future output. Initial announcements of aggregate production are subject to measurement error, because many of the data required to compile the statistics are produced with a lag. This measurement error can be gauged as the difference between the latest revised statistic and its initial announcement. Assuming aggregate production statistics help forecast future aggregate production, these measurement errors are expected to affect macroeconomic forecasts. Assuming agents’ macroeconomic forecasts affect their production choices, these measurement errors should affect future output through sentiment. This thesis is primarily empirical, so the theoretical basis, strategic complementarity, is discussed quite briefly. However, it is a model in which higher aggregate production increases each agent’s incentive to produce. In this circumstance a statistical announcement which suggests aggregate production is high would increase each agent’s incentive to produce, thus resulting in higher aggregate production. In this way the existence of strategic complementarity provides the theoretical basis for output fluctuations caused by measurement mistakes in aggregate production statistics. Previous empirical studies suggest that measurement errors in gross national product affect future aggregate production in the United States. Additionally it has been demonstrated that measurement errors in the Index of Leading Indicators affect forecasts by professional economists as well as future industrial production in the United States. This thesis aims to verify the applicability of these findings to other countries, as well as study the link between measurement errors in gross domestic product and sentiment. This thesis explores the relationship between measurement errors in gross domestic production and sentiment and future output. Professional forecasts and consumer sentiment in the United States and Finland, as well as producer sentiment in Finland, are used as the measures of sentiment. Using statistical techniques it is found that measurement errors in gross domestic product affect forecasts and producer sentiment. The effect on consumer sentiment is ambiguous. The relationship between measurement errors and future output is explored using data from Finland, United States, United Kingdom, New Zealand and Sweden. It is found that measurement errors have affected aggregate production or investment in Finland, United States, United Kingdom and Sweden. Specifically, it was found that overly optimistic statistics announcements are associated with higher output and vice versa.

Age- or length-based methods of growth estimation. What drives the choice?

Based upon a global comparison of over 400 fisheries, the Principal Components Analysis (PCA) methodology was used to identify factors affecting the choice of growth estimation methods. Of the six factors examined, the growth rate (K) and asymptotic length (L8) explained most of the variations. Financial resources, i.e., Gross National Product (GNP), and latitude were also important factors.

Canadian, Mexican, and U. S. Fisheries: Recent Developments

The creation of extended zones (EEZ's) has shifted some aspects of fisheries management and policy from the arena of international negotiations to the economic and political decision making process within the coastal state. The transition from a world of international commons to one of coastal state jurisdiction raises a variety of issues. The one of concern here is a broad welfare question: Given the transfer of assets from the international commons to the coastal state, how well (efficiently) has the state used these new assets to increase the flow of income and Gross National Product (GNP)?

Obesidade infantojuvenil e estado socioeconómico

RESUMO - Introdução: Atualmente, o nível socioeconómico é um dos mais poderosos preditores do estado de saúde, com grande influência no desenvolvimento da obesidade. O orçamento famíliar, os níveis de educação dos pais e o desemprego são fatores que podem influenciar as escolhas alimentares dos mais jovens. Objetivos: Analisar a relação entre o nível socioeconómico e a prevalência de excesso de peso e de obesidade em crianças e jovens por distrito de Portugal continental. Métodos: Foi realizado um estudo ecológico, analítico, observacional e transversal, onde foram recolhidos dados socioeconómicos (taxa de desemprego, rendimento médio/ trabalhador, contribuição para o PIB nacional, proporção da população residente que beneficia do rendimento social de inserção, proporção da população residente com ensino superior completo) do anuário estatistico de 2008 e dos censos de 2011. Os dados foram recolhidos por distrito e correlacionados com a prevalência de excesso de peso e de obesidade infantojuvenil de Portugal continental. Resultados: Verificou-se que a prevalência de obesidade e excesso de peso é significativamente diferente em cada distrito com valor p = 0,008. Demonstrou-se que não se verificaram relações significativas com as variáveis socioeconómicas e a prevalência de excesso de peso e obesidade por distrito, com exceção da taxa de desemprego, em que se verificou uma relação positiva significativa com a prevalência de obesidade. (p = 0,02) Conclusões: Assim, com a realização do estudo verificou-se que a região/ distrito onde a criança vive pode influenciar significativamente a prevalência de obesidade. Em relação ao nível socioconómico demonstrou-se que a taxa de desemprego está correlacionada com maior prevalência de obesidade infantouvenil. Deste modo, demonstra-se que o nível socioeconómico, como fator etiológico da obesidade infantojuvenil é um campo de emergente análise e intervenção.

Enjeux économiques et éthiques de la mesure du travail non rémunéré des femmes

A large part of the work done by women is not counted in the gross national product (GDP) of nations. Which type of work are we referring to? Unpaid work; also commonly called domestic work. Because all the services produced by households for their own consumption are not subject to monetary exchange, they are excluded from de production boundary defined by the United Nations System of National Accounts (SNA). In doing so, this key statistics, inspired by the Keynesian school of thoughts, shows an accepted iniquity in the quantification of the product since women’s productive contribution within the households is not taken into account. In other words, national accounts are not gender neutral. In fact, this breach of a fundamental ethical rule which is equity towards gender inequalities is just the reflection of a social conception that prevails within the SNA since its creation, namely that domestic work is not considered as work. It is therefore essential to quantify women’s unpaid work, a concern that has long been the preserve of feminist activists even though; this should go beyond feminists considerations. This article shows how the issue of measuring unpaid work on a broader prospective is relevant on both ethical and economic fronts. The recognition of this production factor as a macroeconomic variable is indeed fundamental to get a more complete understanding and assessment of the economy. Valorization of unpaid work would also allow women to claim better retribution, or at least, to expect an effective social recognition of their actions and efforts and in the end would contribute to the establishment of greater social justice.

Seasonal adjustment and cointegration

El documento examina el efecto de filtros de ajuste en el tamaño y poder de prueba de cointegración que usan los residuales como pruebas ADF y PP, mediante procedimientos MonteCarlo y una aplicación empírica. Nuestros resultados indican que el uso de filtros distorsiona el tamaño y reduce el poder de estas pruebas.

Economic indicator comparisons of international real estate sectors using the OECD input-output database

With its growing share in national economies, the real estate sector has been considered a vital contributor of economic development. Research efforts are needed in order to gain a better comprehension of the national specificities of the real estate sector and to identify its role in economic development. Due to limited comparable data, the economic indicators of real estate sectors are hard to compare between different countries. This paper aims to explore the quantitative interdependence amongst the real estate sector and other industries in developed economies using input-output analysis, and to investigate their significant linkages. Based on the recently published Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) input-output database at constant prices, the analysis focuses on the real estate's escalating role in terms ofshares in gross output, value added and gross national product. With emphasis on the relative role of manufacturing, construction and services inputs, this paper also highlights the strengths of the push and pull of the real estate sector.

Economic analyses on multinational real estate and construction sectors

Both the construction and real estate sectors have been considered vital productive drivers for the economic development of a nation. Multinational economic analyses on these two sectors over a long period enable a better comprehension of their effects and interrelationships. Based on the recently published Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) input-output database at constant prices, this paper compares the real estate and construction sectors of six countries in terms of their shares in gross national product and gross national income. The push and pull effects of these two sectors onto the whole economy are further determined using forward and backward linkage indicators respectively. In addition, the interactions between themselves are formulated in terms of direct and total input parameters. This research provides a numerical approach to examine the economic influences and sectorial correlation of the real estate and construction sectors.

The Australian construction linkages in the 1990s

Abstract: During the 1990s, the construction sector played an important role with its growing contributions to the gross national product, gross domestic product and employment in the Australian economy. Using the newly released 1998-99 input-output table and four previously published tables by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, this paper aims to measure the sectoral linkages of the Australian construction sector in the 1990s in relation to other industrial countries. Results describe the increase in construction volume was mainly due to the increase in governmental and non-residential construction expenditures and lagging construction technology. The technical level of the non-residential construction sub-sector was a drag to the total construction, while the non-residential construction sub-sector presented a stronger economic push than that of the residential construction sub-sector. In the 1990s, the inputs and outputs' components of the construction sector were stable. The linkages of the Australian construction sector are discussed from an international point of view.

Australia and Japan after the second world war: constructing new futures in Asia

The subject of my lecture is Australian-Japanese relations since the end of the Second World War, but I’m keen to explore these relations in the context of ideas, efforts and practical results in relation to collaborative and other efforts towards regionalism in the Asia Pacific. My general argument is that, on the one hand, Australian-Japanese relations have developed with a strength that would have been hard to imagine in 1945, and with an important focus on regional growth and security. The incremental steps taken may have been small and at a steady pace but, given the legacy of deep scars resulting from the Second World War and given the limitations on the defence aspects of Japan’s postwar involvement in regional affairs (ie the self defence requirement of the Constitution and the practice of spending not more than one per cent of Gross National Product on defence), these have been very successfully negotiated steps. On the other hand, there are some opportunities for greater joint leadership in the region which may or may not be realized. The incremental steps took place in difficult and changing circumstances; and what I would like to do now is remind us of how many unknowns attached to what might happen in Australian- Japan relationships after the Second World War, partly because there were so many unknowns about how the post-war international order would settle, and partly because Australian-Japanese relations started from such a desperately low point. I will try to walk through some of the key features of different periods, as I see the periodisation logically falling out after the war, and draw some thoughts together in relation to more recent initiatives on regional and bilateral co-operation. My training is as a historian, and that shapes the way this lecture works, and for most of my career I have been an Australian historian of international relations, looking particularly at Australia’s changing role in world affairs, and that is also likely to show in what follows－possibly at the expense of greater detail from Japanese perspectives. But I hope you will understand that, and also the limitations involved in trying to paint with a broad brush on a huge historical canvas.

The Mexican film industry and its participation in the global value chain

Includes bibliography

Nicaragua: evolución económica durante 2005 y perspectivas para 2006

Incluye Bibliografía

Aplicação de ferramentas do pensamento enxuto na redução de perdas na indústria sucroenergética: um estudo de caso

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Do established prognostic factors explain the different mortality rates in ICU septic patients around the world?

Background. The aim of this paper was to clarify if previously established prognostic factors explain the different mortality, rates observed in ICU septic patients around the world. Methods. This is a sub-study from the PROGRESS study, which was an international, prospective, observational registry of ICU patients with severe sepsis. For this study we included 10930 patients from 24 countries that enrolled more than 100 patients in the PROGRESS. The effect of potential prognostic factors on in-hospital mortality was examined using univariate and multivariate logistic regression. The complete set of data was available for 7022 patients, who were considered in the multivariate analysis. Countries were classified according to country, income, development status, and in-hospital mortality terciles. The relationship between countries' characteristics and hospital mortality mortality was evaluated using linear regression. Results. Mean in-hospital mortality was 49.2%. Severe sepsis in-hospital mortality varied widely in different countries, ranging from 30.6% in New Zealand to 80.4% in Algeria. Classification as developed or developing country was not associated with in-hospital mortality (P=0.16), nor were levels of gross national product per capita (P=0.15). Patients in the group of countries with higher in-hospital mortality, had a crude OR for in-hospital death of 2.8 (95% CI 2.5-3.1) in comparison to those in the lower risk group. After adjustments were made for all other independent variables, the OR changed to 2.9 (95% CI 2.5-3.3). Conclusion. Severe sepsis mortality varies widely, in different countries. All known markers of disease severity and prognosis do not fully, explain the international differences in mortality,. Country, income does not explain this disparity, either. Further studies should be developed to verify if other organizational or structural factors account for disparities in patient care and outcomes. (Minerva Anestesiol 2012;78:1215-25)

La governance della società di capitale a base familiare: "Protocolo Familiar" e Patti di Famiglia

Family businesses have acquired a very specific gravity in the economy of occidental countries, generating most of the employment and the richness for the last ages. In Spain Family Businesses represent the 65% about the total of enterprises with 1,5 million companies. They give employment to 8 million people, the 80% of the private employment and develop the 65% of the Spanish GNP (Gross National Product). Otherwise, the family business needs a complete law regulation that gives satisfaction to their own necessities and challenges. These companies have to deal with national or international economic scene to assure their permanency and competitiveness. In fact, the statistics about family companies have a medium life of 35 years. European family businesses success their successor process between a 10 and 25%. It’s said: first generation makes, second generation stays, third generation distributes. In that sense, the Recommendation of the European Commission of December 7º 1994 about the succession of the small and medium companies has reformed European internal orders according to make easier successor process and to introduce practices of family companies’ good government. So, the Italian law, under the 14th Law, February 2006, has reformed its Covil Code, appearing a new concept, called “Patto di famiglia”, wich abolish the prohibition as laid dwon in the 458 article about successors’ agreements, admitting the possibility that testator guarantees the continuity of the company or of the family society, giving it, totally or in part, to one or various of its descendents. On other hand, Spain has promulgated the 17th Royal Decree (9th February 2007), that governs the publicity of family agreements (Protocolos familiars). These “protocolo familiar” (Family Agreement) are known as accord of wills, consented and accepted unanimously of all the family members and the company, taking into account recommendations and practices of family company’s good government.