European integration, FDI and the internal geography of trade : evidence from Western European border regions

In this paper we use a gravity model to study the trade performance of French and Spanishborder regions relatively to non-border regions, over the past two decades. We find that,controlling for their size, proximity and location characteristics, border regions trade onaverage between 62% and 193% more with their neighbouring country than other regions,and twice as much if they are endowed with good cross border transport infrastructures.Despite European integration, however, this trade outperformance has fallen for the mostperipheral regions within the EU. We show that this trend was linked in part to a shift in the propensity of foreign investors to move their affiliates from the regions near their home market to the regions bordering the EU core.

Analysis, modelling and visualisation of spatiotemporal data for urban studies

The proportion of population living in or around cites is more important than ever. Urban sprawl and car dependence have taken over the pedestrian-friendly compact city. Environmental problems like air pollution, land waste or noise, and health problems are the result of this still continuing process. The urban planners have to find solutions to these complex problems, and at the same time insure the economic performance of the city and its surroundings. At the same time, an increasing quantity of socio-economic and environmental data is acquired. In order to get a better understanding of the processes and phenomena taking place in the complex urban environment, these data should be analysed. Numerous methods for modelling and simulating such a system exist and are still under development and can be exploited by the urban geographers for improving our understanding of the urban metabolism. Modern and innovative visualisation techniques help in communicating the results of such models and simulations. This thesis covers several methods for analysis, modelling, simulation and visualisation of problems related to urban geography. The analysis of high dimensional socio-economic data using artificial neural network techniques, especially self-organising maps, is showed using two examples at different scales. The problem of spatiotemporal modelling and data representation is treated and some possible solutions are shown. The simulation of urban dynamics and more specifically the traffic due to commuting to work is illustrated using multi-agent micro-simulation techniques. A section on visualisation methods presents cartograms for transforming the geographic space into a feature space, and the distance circle map, a centre-based map representation particularly useful for urban agglomerations. Some issues on the importance of scale in urban analysis and clustering of urban phenomena are exposed. A new approach on how to define urban areas at different scales is developed, and the link with percolation theory established. Fractal statistics, especially the lacunarity measure, and scale laws are used for characterising urban clusters. In a last section, the population evolution is modelled using a model close to the well-established gravity model. The work covers quite a wide range of methods useful in urban geography. Methods should still be developed further and at the same time find their way into the daily work and decision process of urban planners. La part de personnes vivant dans une région urbaine est plus élevé que jamais et continue à croître. L'étalement urbain et la dépendance automobile ont supplanté la ville compacte adaptée aux piétons. La pollution de l'air, le gaspillage du sol, le bruit, et des problèmes de santé pour les habitants en sont la conséquence. Les urbanistes doivent trouver, ensemble avec toute la société, des solutions à ces problèmes complexes. En même temps, il faut assurer la performance économique de la ville et de sa région. Actuellement, une quantité grandissante de données socio-économiques et environnementales est récoltée. Pour mieux comprendre les processus et phénomènes du système complexe "ville", ces données doivent être traitées et analysées. Des nombreuses méthodes pour modéliser et simuler un tel système existent et sont continuellement en développement. Elles peuvent être exploitées par le géographe urbain pour améliorer sa connaissance du métabolisme urbain. Des techniques modernes et innovatrices de visualisation aident dans la communication des résultats de tels modèles et simulations. Cette thèse décrit plusieurs méthodes permettant d'analyser, de modéliser, de simuler et de visualiser des phénomènes urbains. L'analyse de données socio-économiques à très haute dimension à l'aide de réseaux de neurones artificiels, notamment des cartes auto-organisatrices, est montré à travers deux exemples aux échelles différentes. Le problème de modélisation spatio-temporelle et de représentation des données est discuté et quelques ébauches de solutions esquissées. La simulation de la dynamique urbaine, et plus spécifiquement du trafic automobile engendré par les pendulaires est illustrée à l'aide d'une simulation multi-agents. Une section sur les méthodes de visualisation montre des cartes en anamorphoses permettant de transformer l'espace géographique en espace fonctionnel. Un autre type de carte, les cartes circulaires, est présenté. Ce type de carte est particulièrement utile pour les agglomérations urbaines. Quelques questions liées à l'importance de l'échelle dans l'analyse urbaine sont également discutées. Une nouvelle approche pour définir des clusters urbains à des échelles différentes est développée, et le lien avec la théorie de la percolation est établi. Des statistiques fractales, notamment la lacunarité, sont utilisées pour caractériser ces clusters urbains. L'évolution de la population est modélisée à l'aide d'un modèle proche du modèle gravitaire bien connu. Le travail couvre une large panoplie de méthodes utiles en géographie urbaine. Toutefois, il est toujours nécessaire de développer plus loin ces méthodes et en même temps, elles doivent trouver leur chemin dans la vie quotidienne des urbanistes et planificateurs.

The First World War and coal trade geography in Latin America and the Caribbean (1890-1930)

This paper aims to illustrate the dynamics of coal trade between Latin America and its main trade partners, i.e. the USA, Great Britain and Germany, before and after the enormous disruption caused by the First World War. The coal trade was used as an indicator of modernization for Latin American countries, given that oil was at that time of secondary importance. Energy imports have determined the possibilities of each Latin American country in its process of development. Here we address this question and place special emphasis on supply channels, concluding that the trade link with main suppliers was of key significance. Although this was very clear by the end of the period, the process had started well before the First World War, at least for the majority of LA&C countries. These points are developed through a gravity model applied to the bilateral coal trade. The importance of the market supplier share is addressed through cluster methodologies.

European integration, FDI and the internal geography of trade : evidence from Western European border regions

In this paper we use a gravity model to study the trade performance of French and Spanishborder regions relatively to non-border regions, over the past two decades. We find that,controlling for their size, proximity and location characteristics, border regions trade onaverage between 62% and 193% more with their neighbouring country than other regions,and twice as much if they are endowed with good cross border transport infrastructures.Despite European integration, however, this trade outperformance has fallen for the mostperipheral regions within the EU. We show that this trend was linked in part to a shift in the propensity of foreign investors to move their affiliates from the regions near their home market to the regions bordering the EU core.

Construction mechanisms and thermal evolution of upper crustal intrusions : the Saint-Jean-du-Doigt bimodal intrusion (Brittany, France)

Understanding the emplacement and growth of intrusive bodies in terms of mechanism, duration, ther¬mal evolution and rates are fundamental aspects of crustal evolution. Recent studies show that many plutons grow in several Ma by in situ accretion of discrete magma pulses, which constitute small-scale magmatic reservoirs. The residence time of magmas, and hence their capacities to interact and differentiate, are con¬trolled by the local thermal environment. The latter is highly dependant on 1) the emplacement depth, 2) the magmas and country rock composition, 3) the country rock thermal conductivity, 4) the rate of magma injection and 5) the geometry of the intrusion. In shallow level plutons, where magmas solidify quickly, evi¬dence for magma mixing and/or differentiation processes is considered by many authors to be inherited from deeper levels. This work shows however that in-situ differentiation and magma interactions occurred within basaltic and felsic sills at shallow depth (0.3 GPa) in the St-Jean-du-Doigt (SJDD) bimodal intrusion, France. This intrusion emplaced ca. 347 Ma ago (IDTIMS U/Pb on zircon) in the Precambrian crust of the Armori- can massif and preserves remarkable sill-like emplacement processes of bimodal mafic-felsic magmas. Field evidence coupled to high precision zircon U-Pb dating document progressive thermal maturation within the incrementally built ioppolith. Early m-thick mafic sills (eastern part) form the roof of the intrusion and are homogeneous and fine-grained with planar contacts with neighboring felsic sills; within a minimal 0.8 Ma time span, the system gets warmer (western part). Sills are emplaced by under-accretion under the old east¬ern part, interact and mingle. A striking feature of this younger, warmer part is in-situ differentiation of the mafic sills in the top 40 cm of the layer, which suggests liquids survival in the shallow crust. Rheological and thermal models were performed in order to determine the parameters required to allow this observed in- situ differentiation-accumulation processes. Strong constraints such as total emplacement durations (ca. 0.8 Ma, TIMS date) and pluton thickness (1.5 Km, gravity model) allow a quantitative estimation of the various parameters required (injection rates, incubation time,...). The results show that in-situ differentiation may be achieved in less than 10 years at such shallow depth, provided that: (1) The differentiating sills are injected beneath consolidated, yet still warm basalt sills, which act as low conductive insulating screens (eastern part formation in the SJDD intrusion). The latter are emplaced in a very short time (800 years) at high injection rate (0.5 m/y) in order to create a "hot zone" in the shallow crust (incubation time). This implies that nearly 1/3 of the pluton (400m) is emplaced by a subsequent and sustained magmatic activity occurring on a short time scale at the very beginning of the system. (2) Once incubation time is achieved, the calculations show that a small hot zone is created at the base of the sill pile, where new injections stay above their solidus T°C and may interact and differentiate. Extraction of differentiated residual liquids might eventually take place and mix with newly injected magma as documented in active syn-emplacement shear-zones within the "warm" part of the pluton. (3) Finally, the model show that in order to maintain a permanent hot zone at shallow level, injection rate must be of 0.03 m/y with injection of 5m thick basaltic sills eveiy 130yr, imply¬ing formation of a 15 km thick pluton. As this thickness is in contradiction with the one calculated for SJDD (1.5 Km) and exceed much the average thickness observed for many shallow level plutons, I infer that there is no permanent hot zone (or magma chambers) at such shallow level. I rather propose formation of small, ephemeral (10-15yr) reservoirs, which represent only small portions of the final size of the pluton. Thermal calculations show that, in the case of SJDD, 5m thick basaltic sills emplaced every 1500 y, allow formation of such ephemeral reservoirs. The latter are formed by several sills, which are in a mushy state and may interact and differentiate during a short time.The mineralogical, chemical and isotopic data presented in this study suggest a signature intermediate be¬tween E-MORB- and arc-like for the SJDD mafic sills and feeder dykes. The mantle source involved produced hydrated magmas and may be astenosphere modified by "arc-type" components, probably related to a sub¬ducting slab. Combined fluid mobile/immobile trace elements and Sr-Nd isotopes suggest that such subduc¬tion components are mainly fluids derived from altered oceanic crust with minor effect from the subducted sediments. Close match between the SJDD compositions and BABB may point to a continental back-arc setting with little crustal contamination. If so, the SjDD intrusion is a major witness of an extensional tectonic regime during the Early-Carboniferous, linked to the subduction of the Rheno-Hercynian Ocean beneath the Variscan terranes. Also of interest is the unusual association of cogenetic (same isotopic compositions) K-feldspar A- type granite and albite-granite. A-type granites may form by magma mixing between the mafic magma and crustal melts. Alternatively, they might derive from the melting of a biotite-bearing quartz-feldspathic crustal protolith triggered by early mafic injections at low crustal levels. Albite-granite may form by plagioclase cu¬mulate remelting issued from A-type magma differentiation.

The First World War and Coal Trade Geography in Latin America and the Caribbean, 1890-1930

This paper aims to illustrate the dynamics of coal trade between Latin America and its main trade partners, i.e., the USA, Great Britain, and Germany, before and after the enormous disruption caused by the First World War. The coal trade was used as an indicator of modernization for Latin American countries, given that oil was at that time of secondary importance. Energy imports have determined the possibilities of each Latin American country in its process of development. Here, we address this question and place special emphasis on supply channels, concluding that the trade link with main suppliers was of key significance. Although this was very clear by the end of the period, the process had started well before the First World War, at least for the majority of LA&C countries. These points are developed through a gravity model applied to the bilateral coal trade. The importance of the market supplier share is addressed through cluster methodologies.

Fiber flows in global paper and pulp industry. A panel data approach.

The purpose of this thesis is to study factors that explain the bilateral fiber trade flows. This is done by analyzing bilateral trade flows during 1990-2006. It will be studied also, whether there are differences between fiber types. This thesis uses a gravity model approach to study the trade flows. Gravity model is mostly used to study the aggregate data between trading countries. In this thesis the gravity model is applied to single fibers. This model is then applied to panel data set. Results from the regression show clearly that there are benefits in studying different fibers in separate. The effects differ considerably from each other. Furthermore, this thesis speaks for the existence of Linder’s effect in certain fiber types.

The impact of FTAs on MENA trade in agricultural and industrial products

This paper analyses the impact of Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) on Middle East and North African Countries (MENA) trade for the period 1994-2010. The analysis distinguishes between industrial and agricultural trade to take into account the different liberalisation schedules. An augmented gravity model is estimated using up-to-date panel data techniques to control for all time-invariant bilateral factors that influence bilateral trade as well as for the so-called multilateral resistance factors. We also control for the endogeneity of the agreements and test for self-selection bias due to the presence of zero trade in our sample. The main findings indicate that North-South-FTAs and South-South- FTAs have a differential impact in terms of increasing trade in MENA countries, with the former being more beneficial in terms of exports for MENA countries, but both showing greater global market integration. We also find that FTAs that include agricultural products, in which MENA countries have a clear comparative advantage, have more favourable effects for these countries than those only including industrial products. JEL code: F10, F15

Explaining the Shifts of International Trade in Pulp and Paper Industry

The pulp and paper industry is currently facing broad structural changes due to global shifts in demand and supply. These changes have significant impacts on national economies worldwide. In this paper, we describe the recent trends in the pulp and recovered paper (RP) production, and estimate augmented gravity models of bilateral trade for chemical pulp and RP exports with panel data. According to our results, there is some variation in the effects of the traditional gravity-model variables between pulp grades and RP. The results imply also that, in comparison to export supply, import demand plays a larger role in determining the volume of exports. Finally, it is evident that Asia, particularly China, is the most important driver of chemical pulp and RP trade: China is hungry for fiber, and must import to satisfy its growing needs. Moreover, the speed of China’s growth in chemical pulp and RP imports has been driving the increased significance of planted forests in the exports of hardwood pulp (BHKP) as well.

Structural dynamics in the global pulp and paper industry

The pulp and paper industry is currently facing broad structural changes due to global shifts in demand and supply. These changes have significant impacts on national economies worldwide. Planted forests (especially eucalyptus) and recovered paper have quickly increased their importance as raw material for paper and paperboard production. Although advances in information and communication technologies could reduce the demand for communication papers, and the growth of paper consumption has indeed flattened in developed economies, particularly in North America and Western Europe, the consumption is increasing on a global scale. Moreover, the focal point of production and consumption is moving from the Western world to the rapidly growing markets of Southeast Asia. This study analyzes how the so-called megatrends (globalization, technological development, and increasing environmental awareness) affect the pulp and paper industry’s external environment, and seeks reliable ways to incorporate the impact of the megatrends on the models concerning the demand, trade, and use of paper and pulp. The study expands current research in several directions and points of view, for example, by applying and incorporating several quantitative methods and different models. As a result, the thesis makes a significant contribution to better understand and measure the impacts of structural changes on the pulp and paper industry. It also provides some managerial and policy implications.

Lógica en la toma de decisiones de inversión en el sector de extracción de petróleo y gas natural

Este documento se centra en la presentación de información y análisis de la misma a la hora de establecer la manera en que empresas del sector de extracción de gas natural y generación de energía a base de dicho recurso, toman decisiones en cuanto a inversión, centrándose en la lógica que usan a la hora de emprender este proceso. Esto debido a la constante necesidad de establecer procesos que permitan tomar decisiones más acertadas, incluyendo todas las herramientas posibles para tal fin. La lógica es una de estas herramientas, pues permite encadenar factores con el fin de obtener resultados positivos. Por tal razón, se hace importante conocer el uso de esta herramienta, teniendo en cuentas de qué manera y en que contextos es usada. Con el fin de tener una mayor orientación, este estudio estará centrado en un sector específico, el cual es el de la extracción de petróleo y gas natural. Lo anterior entendiendo la necesidad existente de fundamentación teórica que permita establecer de manera clara la forma apropiada de tomar decisiones en un sector tan diverso y complejo como lo es el mencionado. El contexto empresarial actual exige una visión global, no basada en la lógica lineal causal que hoy se tiene como referencia. El sector de extracción de petróleo y gas natural es un ejemplo particular en cuanto a la manera en cuanto se toman decisiones en inversión, puesto que en su mayoría son empresas de capital intensivo, las cuales mantienen un flujo elevado de recursos monetarios.

The propagation mechanism of a vortex on the β plane

The propagation velocity and propagation mechanism for vortices on a β plane are determined for a reduced-gravity model by integrating the momentum equations over the β plane. Isolated vortices, vortices in a background current, and initial vortex propagation from rest are studied. The propagation mechanism for isolated anticyclones as well as cyclones, which has been lacking up to now, is presented. It is shown that, to first order, the vortex moves to generate a Coriolis force on the mass anomaly of the vortex to compensate for the force on the vortex due to the variation of the Coriolis parameter. Only the mass anomaly of the vortex is of importance, because the Coriolis force due to the motion of the bulk of the layer moving with the vortex is almost fully compensated by the Coriolis force on the motion of the exterior flow. Because the mass anomaly of a cyclone is negative the force and acceleration have opposite sign. The role of dipolar structures in steadily moving vortices is discussed, and it is shown that their overall structure is fixed by the steady westward motion of the mass anomaly. Furthermore, it is shown that reduced-gravity vortices are not advected with a background flow. The reason for this behavior is that the background flow changes the ambient vorticity gradient such that the vortex obtains an extra self-propagation term that exactly cancels the advection by the background flow. Last, it is shown that a vortex initially at rest will accelerate equatorward first, after which a westward motion is generated. This result is independent of the sign of the vortex.

Quantifying mesoscale variability in ocean transient tracer fields

A powerful way to test the realism of ocean general circulation models is to systematically compare observations of passive tracer concentration with model predictions. The general circulation models used in this way cannot resolve a full range of vigorous mesoscale activity (on length scales between 10–100 km). In the real ocean, however, this activity causes important variability in tracer fields. Thus, in order to rationally compare tracer observations with model predictions these unresolved fluctuations (the model variability error) must be estimated. We have analyzed this variability using an eddy‐resolving reduced‐gravity model in a simple midlatitude double‐gyre configuration. We find that the wave number spectrum of tracer variance is only weakly sensitive to the distribution of (large scale slowly varying) tracer sources and sinks. This suggests that a universal passive tracer spectrum may exist in the ocean. We estimate the spectral shape using high‐resolution measurements of potential temperature on an isopycnal in the upper northeast Atlantic Ocean, finding a slope near k −1.7 between 10 and 500 km. The typical magnitude of the variance is estimated by comparing tracer simulations using different resolutions. For CFC‐ and tritium‐type transient tracers the peak magnitude of the model variability saturation error may reach 0.20 for scales shorter than 100 km. This is of the same order as the time mean saturation itself and well over an order of magnitude greater than the instrumental uncertainty.

Spin-up and adjustment of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and global pycnocline

A theory is presented for the adjustment of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) and global pycnocline to a sudden and sustained change in wind forcing. The adjustment timescale is controlled by the mesoscale eddy diffusivity across the ACC, the mean width of the ACC, the surface area of the ocean basins to the north, and deep water formation in the North Atlantic. In particular, northern sinking may have the potential to shorten the timescale and reduce its sensitivity to Southern Ocean eddies, but the relative importance of northern sinking and Southern Ocean eddies cannot be determined precisely, largely due to limitations in the parameterization of northern sinking. Although it is clear that the main processes that control the adjustment timescale are those which counteract the deepening of the global pycnocline, the theory also suggests that the timescale can be subtly modified by wind forcing over the ACC and global diapycnal mixing. Results from calculations with a reduced-gravity model compare well with the theory. The multidecadal-centennial adjustment timescale implies that long observational time series will be required to detect dynamic change in the ACC due to anthropogenic forcing. The potential role of Southern Ocean mesoscale eddy activity in determining both the equilibrium state of the ACC and the timescale over which it adjusts suggests that the response to anthropogenic forcing may be different in coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models that parameterize and resolve mesoscale eddies.

An analysis of the determinants of cross-border real estate development flows

This paper investigates the scale and drivers of cross-border real estate development in western and central and eastern Europe (CEE). Drawing upon existing literature on the integration of international real estate markets, we make some inferences on expected patterns of cross-border real estate development from this literature review. The paper draws upon a transactions database in order to assess the penetration of national markets by international real estate developers. The determinants of cross-border transaction flows are modeled as a function the range of economic and real estate variables. Whilst western European markets tend to be dominated by local developers, much higher levels of market penetration by international real estate developers are found in the less mature markets of central and eastern Europe. Empirical modelling based on gravity model specifications reveal the importance of size of the economies, distance between countries, extent of globalization and EU membership as significant determinants of cross-border real estate development flow.