933 resultados para Global temperature changes


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This work reports the assessment of time-shifts (TS) from backscattered ultrasound (BSU) signals when large temperature variations (up to 15 degrees C) were induced in a gel-based phantom. The results showed that during cooling temperature is linear with TS at a rate of approximately 74 ns/degrees C. However during a complete heating/cooling cycle, the relation is highly non-linear. This can be explained by the fact that during cooling the temperature distribution is more uniform. Another problem to report is that TS is very sensitive to external movements.

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Global temperature variations between 1861 and 1984 are forecast usingsregularization networks, multilayer perceptrons and linearsautoregression. The regularization network, optimized by stochasticsgradient descent associated with colored noise, gives the bestsforecasts. For all the models, prediction errors noticeably increasesafter 1965. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that thesclimate dynamics is characterized by low-dimensional chaos and thatsthe it may have changed at some point after 1965, which is alsosconsistent with the recent idea of climate change.s

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Methane is the second most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas in the atmosphere next to carbon dioxide. Its global warming potential (GWP) for a time horizon of 100 years is 25, which makes it an attractive target for climate mitigation policies. Although the methane GWP traditionally includes the methane indirect effects on the concentrations of ozone and stratospheric water vapour, it does not take into account the production of carbon dioxide from methane oxidation. We argue here that this CO2-induced effect should be included for fossil sources of methane, which results in slightly larger GWP values for all time horizons. If the global temperature change potential is used as an alternative climate metric, then the impact of the CO2-induced effect is proportionally much larger. We also discuss what the correction term should be for methane from anthropogenic biogenic sources.

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An analysis of the attribution of past and future changes in stratospheric ozone and temperature to anthropogenic forcings is presented. The analysis is an extension of the study of Shepherd and Jonsson (2008) who analyzed chemistry-climate simulations from the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model (CMAM) and attributed both past and future changes to changes in the external forcings, i.e. the abundances of ozone-depleting substances (ODS) and well-mixed greenhouse gases. The current study is based on a new CMAM dataset and includes two important changes. First, we account for the nonlinear radiative response to changes in CO2. It is shown that over centennial time scales the radiative response in the upper stratosphere to CO2 changes is significantly nonlinear and that failure to account for this effect leads to a significant error in the attribution. To our knowledge this nonlinearity has not been considered before in attribution analysis, including multiple linear regression studies. For the regression analysis presented here the nonlinearity was taken into account by using CO2 heating rate, rather than CO2 abundance, as the explanatory variable. This approach yields considerable corrections to the results of the previous study and can be recommended to other researchers. Second, an error in the way the CO2 forcing changes are implemented in the CMAM was corrected, which significantly affects the results for the recent past. As the radiation scheme, based on Fomichev et al. (1998), is used in several other models we provide some description of the problem and how it was fixed.

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We used fossil pollen to investigate the response of the eastern Chiquitano seasonally-dry tropical forest (SDTF), lowland Bolivia, to high-amplitude climate change associated with glacial–interglacial cycles. Changes in the structure, composition and diversity of the past vegetation are compared with palaeoclimate data previously reconstructed from the same record, and these results shed light on the biogeographic history of today’s highly disjunct blocks of SDTF across South America. We demonstrate that lower glacial temperatures limited tropical forest in the Chiquitanía region, and suggest that SDTF was absent or restricted at latitudes below 17°S, the proposed location of the majority of the hypothesized ‘Pleistocene dry forest arc’ (PDFA). At 19500 yrs b.p., warming supported the establishment of a floristically-distinct SDTF, which showed little change throughout the glacial–Holocene transition, despite a shift to significantly wetter conditions beginning ca. 12500–12200 yrs b.p. Anadenanthera colubrina, a key SDTF taxon, arrived at 10000 yrs b.p., which coincides with the onset of drought associated with an extended dry season. Lasting until 3000 yrs b.p., Holocene drought caused a floristic shift to more drought-tolerant taxa and a reduction in α-diversity (shown by declining palynological richness), but closed-canopy forest was maintained throughout. In contrast to the PDFA, the modern distribution of SDTF most likely represents the greatest spatial coverage of these forests in southern South America since glacial times. We find that temperature is a key climatic control upon the distribution of lowland South American SDTF over glacial-interglacial timescales, and seasonality of rainfall exerts a strong control on their floristic composition.

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New 87Sr/86Sr data based on 127 well-preserved and well-dated conodont samples from South China were measured using a new technique (LA-MC-ICPMS) based on single conodont albid crown analysis. These reveal a spectacular climb in seawater 87Sr/86Sr ratios during the Early Triassic that was the most rapid of the Phanerozoic. The rapid increase began in Bed 25 of the Meishan section (GSSP of the Permian-Triassic boundary, PTB), and coincided closely with the latest Permian extinction. Modeling results indicate that the accelerated rise of 87Sr/86Sr ratios can be ascribed to a rapid increase (>2.8×) of riverine flux of Sr caused by intensified weathering. This phenomenon could in turn be related to an intensification of warming-driven runoff and vegetation die-off. Continued rise of 87Sr/86Sr ratios in the Early Triassic indicates that continental weathering rates were enhanced >1.9 times compared to those of the Late Permian. Continental weathering rates began to decline in the middle-late Spathian, which may have played a role in the decrease of oceanic anoxia and recovery of marine benthos. The 87Sr/86Sr values decline gradually into the Middle Triassic to an equilibrium values around 1.2 times those of the Late Permian level, suggesting that vegetation coverage did not attain pre-extinction levels thereby allowing higher runoff.

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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

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In amphibians solar basking far from water sources is relatively uncommon since the highly permeable amphibian skin does not represent a significant barrier to the accompanying risk of losing water by evaporation. A South American frog, Bokermannohyla alvarengai (Bokermann 1956), however, spends a significant amount of the day exposed to full sun and relatively high temperatures. The means by which this frog copes with potentially high rates of evaporative water loss and high body temperatures are unknown. Thus, in this study, skin colour changes, body surface temperature, and evaporative water loss rates were examined under a mixture of field and laboratory conditions to ascertain whether changes in skin reflectivity play an important role in this animal's thermal and hydric balance. Field data demonstrated a tight correlation between the lightness of skin colour and frog temperature, with lighter frogs being captured possessing higher body temperatures. Laboratory experiments supported this relationship, revealing that frogs kept in the dark or at lower temperatures (20 degrees C) had darker skin colours, whereas frogs kept in the light or higher temperatures (30 degrees C) had skin colours of a lighter hue. Light exhibited a stronger influence on skin colour than temperature alone, suggesting that colour change is triggered by the increase in incident solar energy and in anticipation of changes in body temperature. This conclusion is corroborated by the observation that cold, darkly coloured frogs placed in the sun rapidly became lighter in colour during the initial warming up period (over the first 5 min), after which they warmed up more slowly and underwent a further, albeit slower, lightening of skin colour. Surprisingly, despite its natural disposition to bask in the sun, this species does not possess a 'waterproof' skin, since its rates of evaporative water loss were not dissimilar from many hylid species that live in arboreal or semi-aquatic environments. The natural history of B. alvarengai is largely unknown and, therefore, it is likely that the herein reported colour change and basking behaviour represent a complex interaction between thermoregulation and water balance with other ecologically relevant functions, such as crypsis.

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Background: Air conditioning-induced rhinitis in allergic individuals is a common epidemiologic finding, but its physiopathology,is still controversial. The aim of this study was to describe and compare the effects of experimental air conditioning temperature changes on the nasal mucosa of individuals with persistent allergic rhinitis compared with a control group.Methods: A case-control challenge study was performed in a laboratory of thermal comfort with experimental twin challenge chambers set at a 12 C difference in temperature. A group of 32 patients with persistent allergic rhinitis and a group of 16 control subjects were exposed for 30 minutes, 3 times alternately in each chamber. Nasal symptom scores were recorded and nasal samples collected before, immediately after, and 24 and 48 hours after the challenge.Results: the rhinitis group showed a higher symptom score, epithelial shedding, percentage of eosinophils, total inflammatory cells, leukotriene C-4, eosinophil cationic protein, albumin, and tryptase levels compared with controls. There was also a significant increase in symptom score, total cells recovered, percentage of eosinophils, epithelial shedding, albumin, myeloperoxidase, and soluble intercellular adhesion molecule 1 in both groups compared with baseline levels.Conclusion: Sudden temperature changes led to a more pronounced inflammatory nasal response in the rhinitis group with the recruitment and activation of eosinophils.Clinical implications: Persistent allergic rhinitis is a risk factor for developing sudden temperature change-related rhinitis even in the absence of allergen exposure.

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Objective: To compare the polymerization status of mouse oocyte spindles exposed to various temperatures at various stages of meiosis. Design: Experimental animal study. Setting: University animal laboratory. Animal(s): CF1 mice. Intervention(s): Immature oocytes matured to metaphase I (MI), telophase I (TI), and metaphase II (MII) were incubated at 37 degrees C (control), room temperature (RT), or 4 degrees C for 0, 10, 30, and 60 minutes. Spindle analysis subsequently was performed using polarized field microscopy and immunocytochemistry. Spindles of TI and MII oocytes that underwent vitrification and warming were analyzed also by immunocytochemistry. Main Outcome Measure(s): Detection of polymerized meiotic spindles. Result(s): At RT, and after 60 minutes at 4 degrees C, a significant time-dependent decrease in the percentage of polymerized meiotic spindles was observed in MI and MII oocytes, but not in TI oocytes. The polymerization of TI spindles at 4 degrees C was similar to that of TI spindles at 4 degrees C that underwent vitrification and warming. Conclusion(s): Significant differences in the microtubule dynamics of MI, TI, and MII oocytes incubated at different temperatures were observed. In particular, meiotic spindles in TI oocytes exhibited less depolymerization than did metaphase spindles. (Fertil Steril (R) 2012; 97: 714-9. (C) 2012 by American Society for Reproductive Medicine.)