Integrated management of urban wastewater systems: a model-based approach

The main objective pursued in this thesis targets the development and systematization of a methodology that allows addressing management problems in the dynamic operation of Urban Wastewater Systems. The proposed methodology will suggest operational strategies that can improve the overall performance of the system under certain problematic situations through a model-based approach. The proposed methodology has three main steps: The first step includes the characterization and modeling of the case-study, the definition of scenarios, the evaluation criteria and the operational settings that can be manipulated to improve the system’s performance. In the second step, Monte Carlo simulations are launched to evaluate how the system performs for a wide range of operational settings combinations, and a global sensitivity analysis is conducted to rank the most influential operational settings. Finally, the third step consists on a screening methodology applying a multi-criteria analysis to select the best combinations of operational settings.

Early social experience and individual differences in infants' joint attention

Fifty-nine healthy infants were filmed with their mothers and with a researcher at two, four, six and nine months in face-to-face play, and in toy-play at six and nine months. During toy-play at both ages, two indices of joint attention (JA)—infant bids for attention, and percent of time in shared attention—were assessed, along with other behavioural measures. Global ratings were made at all four ages of infants’ and mothers’ interactive style. The mothers varied in psychiatric history (e.g., half had experienced postpartum depression) and socioeconomic status, so their interactive styles were diverse. Variation in nine-month infant JA — with mother and with researcher — was predicted by variation in maternal behaviour and global ratings at six months, but not at two or four months. Concurrent adult behaviour also influenced nine-month JA, independent of infant ratings. Six-month maternal behaviours that positively predicted later JA (some of which remained important at nine months) included teaching, conjoint action on a toy, and global sensitivity. Other behaviours (e.g., entertaining) negatively predicted later JA. Findings are discussed in terms of social-learning and neurobiological accounts of JA emergence.

Mortalidade infantil em município da região Centro-Oeste Paulista, Brasil, 1990 a 1992

INTRODUÇÃO: A mortalidade infantil em Presidente Prudente, SP (Brasil), foi estudada no período de 1990 a 1992, a partir de aplicação de métodos para obtenção de diagnóstico coletivo que orientassem a identificação e escolha de estratégias de controle de problemas locais. MATERIAL E MÉTODO: Foram utilizadas declarações de óbito colhidas no cartório, cujos dados originais foram corrigidos por meio de pesquisa documental nos serviços de saúde e entrevistas domiciliares. Para estudar variáveis como idade materna e peso ao nascer foram utilizados os dados do Sistema de Informações sobre Nascidos Vivos (SINASC). A qualidade dos dados originais das declarações de óbitos foi inicialmente analisada pela quantidade de informações, sensibilidade, especificidade e valor de Kappa. RESULTADO: A sensibilidade global para a causa básica de óbito foi 78,84% e Kappa igual a 71,32 para o total de causas. Ocorreram 189 óbitos, sendo 66,15% no período neonatal (41,28% durante o primeiro dia de vida) e 33,85% no infantil tardio. O peso ao nascer de 58,28% dos óbitos foi menor que 2.500g. As causas básicas de óbito foram estudadas segundo a possibilidade de serem prevenidas (método desenvolvido por Erica Taucher) por grupos de causas reduzidas utilizadas no International Collaborative Effort (ICE), causas múltiplas e distribuição geográfica. Observou-se que nos óbitos ocorridos até 27 dias, 22,23% poderiam ser evitados por adequada atenção ao parto, 20,64% seriam redutíveis por diagnóstico e tratamento precoce, 13,75% por bom controle da gravidez e apenas 7,94% não evitáveis. Das mortes ocorridas no período infantil tardio, 12,17% foram classificadas como outras preveníveis e 4,23% foram consideradas não evitáveis. Segundo os grupos do ICE, 58,74% faleceram por imaturidade ou asfixias; 19,58% por infecções e, 12,17%, por anomalias congênitas. CONCLUSÃO: Os resultados sugerem prioridade para assistência obstétrica no trabalho de parto e atenção pediátrica por baixo peso ao nascer, entre outras. A análise por causas múltiplas mostra que 76,05% dos óbitos têm as causas básicas relacionadas a causas perinatais e confirma a relação entre as deficiências de peso e as complicações respiratórias do recém-nascido. As complicações maternas também relacionaram-se com o baixo peso. Identificaram-se grandes diferenças no coeficiente de mortalidade infantil entre as áreas da zona urbana não somente restritas aos valores, como também ao tipo de doenças responsáveis pela ocorrência do óbito. Conclui-se haver vantagem no uso associado das quatro técnicas que são complementares, tanto para estudo, como para planejamento de ações dirigidas à prevenção da mortalidade infantil.

Tecniche avanzate per l'analisi di sensitività globale: applicazione alla contaminazione delle acque sotterranee.

The thesis is framed within the field of the stochastic approach to flow and transport themes of solutes in natural porous materials. The methodology used to characterise the uncertainty associated with the modular predictions is completely general and can be reproduced in various contexts. The theme of the research includes the following among its main objectives: (a) the development of a Global Sensitivity Analysis on contaminant transport models in the subsoil to research the effects of the uncertainty of the most important parameters; (b) the application of advanced techniques, such as Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE), for obtaining surrogate models starting from those which conduct traditionally developed analyses in the context of Monte Carlo simulations, characterised by an often not negligible computational burden; (c) the analyses and the understanding of the key processes at the basis of the transport of solutes in natural porous materials using the aforementioned technical and analysis resources. In the complete picture, the thesis looks at the application of a Continuous Injection transport model of contaminants, of the PCE technique which has already been developed and applied by the thesis supervisors, by way of numerical code, to a Slug Injection model. The methodology was applied to the aforementioned model with original contribution deriving from surrogate models with various degrees of approximation and developing a Global Sensitivity Analysis aimed at the determination of Sobol’ indices.

Model reduction of stochastic groundwater flow and transport processes

This work presents a comprehensive methodology for the reduction of analytical or numerical stochastic models characterized by uncertain input parameters or boundary conditions. The technique, based on the Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE) theory, represents a versatile solution to solve direct or inverse problems related to propagation of uncertainty. The potentiality of the methodology is assessed investigating different applicative contexts related to groundwater flow and transport scenarios, such as global sensitivity analysis, risk analysis and model calibration. This is achieved by implementing a numerical code, developed in the MATLAB environment, presented here in its main features and tested with literature examples. The procedure has been conceived under flexibility and efficiency criteria in order to ensure its adaptability to different fields of engineering; it has been applied to different case studies related to flow and transport in porous media. Each application is associated with innovative elements such as (i) new analytical formulations describing motion and displacement of non-Newtonian fluids in porous media, (ii) application of global sensitivity analysis to a high-complexity numerical model inspired by a real case of risk of radionuclide migration in the subsurface environment, and (iii) development of a novel sensitivity-based strategy for parameter calibration and experiment design in laboratory scale tracer transport.

Dynamics of coastal aquifers: data-driven forecasting and risk analysis

This work is focused on the study of saltwater intrusion in coastal aquifers, and in particular on the realization of conceptual schemes to evaluate the risk associated with it. Saltwater intrusion depends on different natural and anthropic factors, both presenting a strong aleatory behaviour, that should be considered for an optimal management of the territory and water resources. Given the uncertainty of problem parameters, the risk associated with salinization needs to be cast in a probabilistic framework. On the basis of a widely adopted sharp interface formulation, key hydrogeological problem parameters are modeled as random variables, and global sensitivity analysis is used to determine their influence on the position of saltwater interface. The analyses presented in this work rely on an efficient model reduction technique, based on Polynomial Chaos Expansion, able to combine the best description of the model without great computational burden. When the assumptions of classical analytical models are not respected, and this occurs several times in the applications to real cases of study, as in the area analyzed in the present work, one can adopt data-driven techniques, based on the analysis of the data characterizing the system under study. It follows that a model can be defined on the basis of connections between the system state variables, with only a limited number of assumptions about the "physical" behaviour of the system.

Assessment of a real-time PCR test to diagnose syphilis from diverse biological samples

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the contribution of a real-time PCR assay for the detection of Treponema pallidum in various biological specimens with the secondary objective of comparing its value according to HIV status. METHODS: Prospective cohort of incident syphilis cases from three Swiss hospitals (Geneva and Bern University Hospitals, Outpatient Clinic for Dermatology of Triemli, Zurich) diagnosed between January 2006 and September 2008. A case-control study was nested into the cohort. Biological specimens (blood, lesion swab or urine) were taken at diagnosis (as clinical information) and analysed by real-time PCR using the T pallidum 47 kDa gene. RESULTS: 126 specimens were collected from 74 patients with primary (n = 26), secondary (n = 40) and latent (n = 8) syphilis. Among primary syphilis, sensitivity was 80% in lesion swabs, 28% in whole blood, 55% in serum and 29% in urine, whereas among secondary syphilis, it was 20%, 36%, 47% and 44%, respectively. Among secondary syphilis, plasma and cerebrospinal fluid were also tested and provided a sensitivity of 100% and 50%, respectively. The global sensitivity of T pallidum by PCR (irrespective of the compartment tested) was 65% during primary, 53% during secondary and null during latent syphilis. No difference regarding serology or PCR results was observed among HIV-infected patients. Specificity was 100%. CONCLUSIONS: Syphilis PCR provides better sensitivity in lesion swabs from primary syphilis and displays only moderate sensitivity in blood from primary and secondary syphilis. HIV status did not modify the internal validity of PCR for the diagnosis of primary or secondary syphilis.

Limits to dark matter annihilation cross-section from a combined analysis of MAGIC and Fermi-LAT observations of dwarf satellite galaxies

We present the first joint analysis of gamma-ray data from the MAGIC Cherenkov telescopes and the Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT) to search for gamma-ray signals from dark matter annihilation in dwarf satellite galaxies. We combine 158 hours of Segue 1 observations with MAGIC with 6-year observations of 15 dwarf satellite galaxies by the Fermi-LAT. We obtain limits on the annihilation cross-section for dark matter particle masses between 10 GeV and 100 TeV – the widest mass range ever explored by a single gamma-ray analysis. These limits improve on previously published Fermi-LAT and MAGIC results by up to a factor of two at certain masses. Our new inclusive analysis approach is completely generic and can be used to perform a global, sensitivity-optimized dark matter search by combining data from present and future gamma-ray and neutrino detectors.

On ANOVA Decompositions of Kernels and Gaussian Random Field Paths

The FANOVA (or “Sobol’-Hoeffding”) decomposition of multivariate functions has been used for high-dimensional model representation and global sensitivity analysis. When the objective function f has no simple analytic form and is costly to evaluate, computing FANOVA terms may be unaffordable due to numerical integration costs. Several approximate approaches relying on Gaussian random field (GRF) models have been proposed to alleviate these costs, where f is substituted by a (kriging) predictor or by conditional simulations. Here we focus on FANOVA decompositions of GRF sample paths, and we notably introduce an associated kernel decomposition into 4 d 4d terms called KANOVA. An interpretation in terms of tensor product projections is obtained, and it is shown that projected kernels control both the sparsity of GRF sample paths and the dependence structure between FANOVA effects. Applications on simulated data show the relevance of the approach for designing new classes of covariance kernels dedicated to high-dimensional kriging.

Sensitivity of large-scale atmospheric analyses to humidity observations and its impact on the global water cycle and tropical and extratropical weather systems in ERA40

Reanalysis data obtained from data assimilation are increasingly used for diagnostic studies of the general circulation of the atmosphere, for the validation of modelling experiments and for estimating energy and water fluxes between the Earth surface and the atmosphere. Because fluxes are not specifically observed, but determined by the data assimilation system, they are not only influenced by the utilized observations but also by model physics and dynamics and by the assimilation method. In order to better understand the relative importance of humidity observations for the determination of the hydrological cycle, in this paper we describe an assimilation experiment using the ERA40 reanalysis system where all humidity data have been excluded from the observational data base. The surprising result is that the model, driven by the time evolution of wind, temperature and surface pressure, is able to almost completely reconstitute the large-scale hydrological cycle of the control assimilation without the use of any humidity data. In addition, analysis of the individual weather systems in the extratropics and tropics using an objective feature tracking analysis indicates that the humidity data have very little impact on these systems. We include a discussion of these results and possible consequences for the way moisture information is assimilated, as well as the potential consequences for the design of observing systems for climate monitoring. It is further suggested, with support from a simple assimilation study with another model, that model physics and dynamics play a decisive role for the hydrological cycle, stressing the need to better understand these aspects of model parametrization. .

Sensitivity of the ERA40 reanalysis to the observing system: determination of the global atmospheric circulation from reduced observations

The impact of selected observing systems on the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) 40-yr reanalysis (ERA40) is explored by mimicking observational networks of the past. This is accomplished by systematically removing observations from the present observational data base used by ERA40. The observing systems considered are a surface-based system typical of the period prior to 1945/50, obtained by only retaining the surface observations, a terrestrial-based system typical of the period 1950-1979, obtained by removing all space-based observations, and finally a space-based system, obtained by removing all terrestrial observations except those for surface pressure. Experiments using these different observing systems have been limited to seasonal periods selected from the last 10 yr of ERA40. The results show that the surface-based system has severe limitations in reconstructing the atmospheric state of the upper troposphere and stratosphere. The terrestrial system has major limitations in generating the circulation of the Southern Hemisphere with considerable errors in the position and intensity of individual weather systems. The space-based system is able to analyse the larger-scale aspects of the global atmosphere almost as well as the present observing system but performs less well in analysing the smaller-scale aspects as represented by the vorticity field. Here, terrestrial data such as radiosondes and aircraft observations are of paramount importance. The terrestrial system in the form of a limited number of radiosondes in the tropics is also required to analyse the quasi-biennial oscillation phenomenon in a proper way. The results also show the dominance of the satellite observing system in the Southern Hemisphere. These results all indicate that care is required in using current reanalyses in climate studies due to the large inhomogeneity of the available observations, in particular in time.

Retrieval of effective ice crystal size in the infrared: sensitivity study and global measurements from TIROS-N Operational Vertical Sounder

The difference between cirrus emissivities at 8 and 11 μm is sensitive to the mean effective ice crystal size of the cirrus cloud, De. By using single scattering properties of ice crystals shaped as planar polycrystals, diameters of up to about 70 μm can be retrieved, instead of up to 45 μm assuming spheres or hexagonal columns. The method described in this article is used for a global determination of mean effective ice crystal sizes of cirrus clouds from TOVS satellite observations. A sensitivity study of the De retrieval to uncertainties in hypotheses on ice crystal shape, size distributions, and temperature profiles, as well as in vertical and horizontal cloud heterogeneities shows that uncertainties can be as large as 30%. However, the TOVS data set is one of few data sets which provides global and long-term coverage. Having analyzed the years 1987–1991, it was found that measured effective ice crystal diameters De are stable from year to year. For 1990 a global median De of 53.5 μm was determined. Averages distinguishing ocean/land, season, and latitude lie between 23 μm in winter over Northern Hemisphere midlatitude land and 64 μm in the tropics. In general, larger Des are found in regions with higher atmospheric water vapor and for cirrus with a smaller effective emissivity.

Simulating current global river runoff with a global hydrological model: model revisions, validation, and sensitivity analysis

Global hydrological models (GHMs) model the land surface hydrologic dynamics of continental-scale river basins. Here we describe one such GHM, the Macro-scale - Probability-Distributed Moisture model.09 (Mac-PDM.09). The model has undergone a number of revisions since it was last applied in the hydrological literature. This paper serves to provide a detailed description of the latest version of the model. The main revisions include the following: (1) the ability for the model to be run for n repetitions, which provides more robust estimates of extreme hydrological behaviour, (2) the ability of the model to use a gridded field of coefficient of variation (CV) of daily rainfall for the stochastic disaggregation of monthly precipitation to daily precipitation, and (3) the model can now be forced with daily input climate data as well as monthly input climate data. We demonstrate the effects that each of these three revisions has on simulated runoff relative to before the revisions were applied. Importantly, we show that when Mac-PDM.09 is forced with monthly input data, it results in a negative runoff bias relative to when daily forcings are applied, for regions of the globe where the day-to-day variability in relative humidity is high. The runoff bias can be up to - 80% for a small selection of catchments but the absolute magnitude of the bias may be small. As such, we recommend future applications of Mac-PDM.09 that use monthly climate forcings acknowledge the bias as a limitation of the model. The performance of Mac-PDM.09 is evaluated by validating simulated runoff against observed runoff for 50 catchments. We also present a sensitivity analysis that demonstrates that simulated runoff is considerably more sensitive to method of PE calculation than to perturbations in soil moisture and field capacity parameters.

Sensitivity of global sulphate aerosol production to changes in oxidant concentrations and climate

The oxidation of SO2 to sulphate aerosol is an important process to include in climate models, and uncertainties caused by ignoring feedback mechanisms affecting the oxidants concerned need to be investigated. Here we present the results of an investigation into the sensitivity of sulphate concentrations to oxidant changes (from changes in climate and in emissions of oxidant precursors) and to changes in climate, in a version of HadGAM1 (the atmosphere-only version of HadGEM1) with an improved sulphur cycle scheme. We find that, when oxidants alone are changed, the global total sulphate burden decreases by approximately 3%, due mainly to a reduction in the OH burden. When climate alone is changed, our results show that the global total sulphate burden increases by approximately 9%; we conclude that this is probably attributable to reduced precipitation in regions of high sulphate abundance. When both oxidants and climate are changed simultaneously, we find that the effects of the two changes combine approximately linearly.