The physical properties of the atmosphere in the new Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model (HadGEM1). Part II: Aspects of variability and regional climate

The performance of the atmospheric component of the new Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model (HadGEM1) is assessed in terms of its ability to represent a selection of key aspects of variability in the Tropics and extratropics. These include midlatitude storm tracks and blocking activity, synoptic variability over Europe, and the North Atlantic Oscillation together with tropical convection, the Madden-Julian oscillation, and the Asian summer monsoon. Comparisons with the previous model, the Third Hadley Centre Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere GCM (HadCM3), demonstrate that there has been a considerable increase in the transient eddy kinetic energy (EKE), bringing HadGEM1 into closer agreement with current reanalyses. This increase in EKE results from the increased horizontal resolution and, in combination with the improved physical parameterizations, leads to improvements in the representation of Northern Hemisphere storm tracks and blocking. The simulation of synoptic weather regimes over Europe is also greatly improved compared to HadCM3, again due to both increased resolution and other model developments. The variability of convection in the equatorial region is generally stronger and closer to observations than in HadCM3. There is, however, still limited convective variance coincident with several of the observed equatorial wave modes. Simulation of the Madden-Julian oscillation is improved in HadGEM1: both the activity and interannual variability are increased and the eastward propagation, although slower than observed, is much better simulated. While some aspects of the climatology of the Asian summer monsoon are improved in HadGEM1, the upper-level winds are too weak and the simulation of precipitation deteriorates. The dominant modes of monsoon interannual variability are similar in the two models, although in HadCM3 this is linked to SST forcing, while in HadGEM1 internal variability dominates. Overall, analysis of the phenomena considered here indicates that HadGEM1 performs well and, in many important respects, improves upon HadCM3. Together with the improved representation of the mean climate, this improvement in the simulation of atmospheric variability suggests that HadGEM1 provides a sound basis for future studies of climate and climate change.

The indirect global warming potential and global temperature change potential due to methane oxidation

Methane is the second most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas in the atmosphere next to carbon dioxide. Its global warming potential (GWP) for a time horizon of 100 years is 25, which makes it an attractive target for climate mitigation policies. Although the methane GWP traditionally includes the methane indirect effects on the concentrations of ozone and stratospheric water vapour, it does not take into account the production of carbon dioxide from methane oxidation. We argue here that this CO2-induced effect should be included for fossil sources of methane, which results in slightly larger GWP values for all time horizons. If the global temperature change potential is used as an alternative climate metric, then the impact of the CO2-induced effect is proportionally much larger. We also discuss what the correction term should be for methane from anthropogenic biogenic sources.

The implications of climate policy for the impacts of climate change on global water resources

This paper assesses the implications of climate policy for exposure to water resources stresses. It compares a Reference scenario which leads to an increase in global mean temperature of 4oC by the end of the 21st century with a Mitigation scenario which stabilises greenhouse gas concentrations at around 450ppm CO2e and leads to a 2oC increase in 2100. Associated changes in river runoff are simulated using a global hydrological model, for four spatial patterns of change in temperature and rainfall. There is a considerable difference in hydrological change between these four patterns, but the percentages of change avoided at the global scale are relatively robust. By the 2050s, the Mitigation scenario typically avoids between 16 and 30% of the change in runoff under the Reference scenario, and by 2100 it avoids between 43 and 65%. Two different measures of exposure to water resources stress are calculated, based on resources per capita and the ratio of withdrawals to resources. Using the first measure, the Mitigation scenario avoids 8-17% of the impact in 2050 and 20-31% in 2100; with the second measure, the avoided impacts are 5-21% and 15-47% respectively. However, at the same time, the Mitigation scenario also reduces the positive impacts of climate change on water scarcity in other areas. The absolute numbers and locations of people affected by climate change and climate policy vary considerably between the four climate model patterns.

The ethical dimensions of global change

This chapter briefly examines the connections between ethics and the politics of global environmental change. I contrast ethical conceptions of the environment with more conventional characterizations of the environmental challenge, in order to indicate some of the core issues and related questions about which ethical theorists engaging with the global environmental change discourse tend to be concerned. I also offer a brief discussion on the key challenge of ethics on global institutional governance of environmental change.

Global change revealed by palaeolimnological records from remote lakes: a review

Over recent decades, palaeolimnological records from remote sites have provided convincing evidence for the onset and development of several facets of global environmental change. Remote lakes, defined here as those occurring in high latitude or high altitude regions, have the advantage of not being overprinted by local anthropogenic processes. As such, many of these sites record broad-scale environmental changes, frequently driven by regime shifts in the Earth system. Here, we review a selection of studies from North America and Europe and discuss their broader implications. The history of investigation has evolved synchronously with the scope and awareness of environmental problems. An initial focus on acid deposition switched to metal and other types of pollutants, then climate change and eventually to atmospheric deposition-fertilising effects. However, none of these topics is independent of the other, and all of them affect ecosystem function and biodiversity in profound ways. Currently, remote lake palaeolimnology is developing unique datasets for each region investigated that benchmark current trends with respect to past, purely natural variability in lake systems. Fostering conceptual and methodological bridges with other environmental disciplines will upturn contribution of remote lake palaeolimnology in solving existing and emerging questions in global change science and planetary stewardship.

Recent environmental change and trace metal pollution in World Heritage Bathurst Harbour, southwest Tasmania, Australia

Bathurst Harbour in World Heritage southwest Tasmania, Australia, is one of the world’s most pristine estuarine systems. At present there is a lack of data on pollution impacts or long-term natural variability in the harbor. A ca. 350-year-old 210Pb-dated sediment core was analysed for trace metals to track pollution impacts from local and long-range sources. Lead and antimony increased from AD 1870 onwards, which likely reflects remote (i.e. mainland Australian and global) atmospheric pollution sources. Variability in the concentrations of copper and zinc closely followed the history of mining activities in western Tasmania, which began in the AD 1880s. Tin was generally low throughout the core, except for a large peak in AD 1989 ± 0.5 years, which may be a consequence of input from a local small-scale alluvial tin mine. Changes in diatom assemblages were also investigated. The diatom flora was composed mostly of planktonic freshwater and benthic brackish-marine species, consistent with stratified estuarine conditions. Since mining began, however, an overall decrease in the proportion of planktonic to benthic taxa occurred, with the exception of two distinct peaks in the twentieth century that coincided with periods of high rainfall. Despite the region’s remoteness, trace metal analyses revealed evidence of atmospheric pollution from Tasmanian and possibly longer-range mining activities. This, together with recent low rainfall, appears to have contributed to altering the diatom assemblages in one of the most pristine temperate estuaries in the world.

The nitrogen cycle of tropical montane forest in Ecuador turns inorganic under environmental change

Water-bound nitrogen (N) cycling in temperate terrestrial ecosystems of the Northern Hemisphere is today mainly inorganic because of anthropogenic release of reactive N to the environment. In little-industrialized and remote areas, in contrast, a larger part of N cycling occurs as dissolved organic N (DON). In a north Andean tropical montane forest in Ecuador, the N cycle changed markedly during 1998–2010 along with increasing N deposition and reduced soil moisture. The DON concentrations and the fractional contribution of DON to total N significantly decreased in rainfall, throughfall, and soil solutions. This inorganic turn of the N cycle was most pronounced in rainfall and became weaker along the flow path of water through the system until it disappeared in stream water. Decreasing organic contributions to N cycling were caused not only by increasing inorganic N input but also by reduced DON production and/or enhanced DON decomposition. Accelerated DON decomposition might be attributable to less waterlogging and higher nutrient availability. Significantly increasing NO3-N concentrations and NO3-N/NH4-N concentration ratios in throughfall and litter leachate below the thick organic layers indicated increasing nitrification. In mineral soil solutions, in contrast, NH4-N concentrations increased and NO3-N/NH4-N concentration ratios decreased significantly, suggesting increasing net ammonification. Our results demonstrate that the remote tropical montane forests on the rim of the Amazon basin experienced a pronounced change of the N cycle in only one decade. This change likely parallels a similar change which followed industrialization in the temperate zone of the Northern Hemisphere more than a century ago.

Dimensions of Global Change in African Mountains: The Example of Mount Kenya

This paper discusses the effects of global change in African mountains, with the example of Mount Kenya. The geographical focus is the northwestern, semi-arid foot zone of the mountain (Laikipia District). Over the past 50 years, this area has experienced rapid and profound transformation, the respective processes of which are all linked to global change. The main driving forces behind these processes have been political and economic in nature. To these an environmental change factor has been added in recent years – climate change. After introducing the area of research, the paper presents three dimensions of global change that are manifested in the region and largely shape its development: Socio-political change, economic change, environmental change. For the regions northwest of Mount Kenya, climate models predict important changes in rainfall distribution that will have a profound impact on freshwater availability and management. The results presented here are based on research undertaken northwest of Mount Kenya within the framework of a series of long-term Kenyan-Swiss research programmes that began in the early 1980s.

Perspectives on the public health implications of global climate change and the epidemiology of vector-borne disease

Global climate change is becoming an increasing concern among the public health community. Some researchers believe the earth is rapidly undergoing changes in temperature, sea level, population movement, and extreme weather phenomenon. With these geographic, meteorological, and social changes come increased threats to human health. One of these threats is the spread of vector-borne infectious diseases. The changes mentioned above are believed to contribute to increased arthropod survival, transmission, and habitation. These changes, in turn, lead to increased incidence among neighboring human populations. It is also argued that human action may play more of a role than climate change. This systematic review served to determine whether or not climate change poses a significant risk to human exposure and increased incidence of vector-borne disease. ^

A trait-based approach for predicting species responses to environmental change from sparse data : how well might terrestrial mammals track climate change?

Funded by COST (European Cooperation in Science and Technology) CEH projects. Grant Numbers: NEC05264, NEC05100 Natural Environment Research Council UK. Grant Number: NE/J008001/1 © 2016 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Global change overhead transparency masters.

Mode of access: Internet.

Coral reefs in a century of rapid environmental change

Coral reefs are the most diverse marine ecosystem and embrace possibly millions of plant, animal and protist species. Mutualistic symbioses are a fundamental feature of coral reefs that have been used to explain their structure, biodiversity and existence. Complex inter-relationships between hosts, habitats and symbionts belie closely coupled nutrient and community dynamics that create the circumstances for something from nothing (or the oasis in a nutrient desert). The flip side of these dynamics is a close dependency between species, which results in a series of non-linear relationships as conditions change. These responses are being highlighted as anthropogenic influences increase across the world's tropical and subtropical coastlines. Caribbean as well as Indo-Pacific coral populations are now in a serious decline in many parts of the world. This has resulted in a significant reorganization of how coral reef ecosystems function. Among the spectra of changes brought about by humans is rapid climate change. Mass coral bleaching - the loss of the dinoflagellate symbionts from reef-building corals - and mortality has affected the world's coral reefs with increasing frequency and intensity since the late 1970s. Mass bleaching events, which often cover thousands of square kilometres of coral reefs, are triggered by small increases (+1-3degreesC) in water temperature. These increases in sea temperature are often seen during warm phase weather conditions (e.g. ENSO) and are increasing in size and magnitude. The loss of living coral cover (e.g. 16% globally in 1998, an exceptionally warm year) is resulting in an as yet unspecified reduction in the abundance of a myriad of other species. Projections from general circulation models (GCM) used to project changes in global temperature indicate that conditions even under the mildest greenhouse gas emission scenarios may exceed the thermal tolerances of most reef-building coral communities. Research must now explore key issues such as the extent to which the thermal tolerances of corals and their symbionts are dynamic if bleaching and disease are linked; how the loss of high densities of reef-building coral will affect other dependent species; and, how the loss of coral populations will affect the millions of people globally who depend on coral reefs for their daily survival.

Assessing the utility of geospatial technologies to investigate environmental change within lake systems

Over 50% of the world's population live within 3. km of rivers and lakes highlighting the on-going importance of freshwater resources to human health and societal well-being. Whilst covering c. 3.5% of the Earth's non-glaciated land mass, trends in the environmental quality of the world's standing waters (natural lakes and reservoirs) are poorly understood, at least in comparison with rivers, and so evaluation of their current condition and sensitivity to change are global priorities. Here it is argued that a geospatial approach harnessing existing global datasets, along with new generation remote sensing products, offers the basis to characterise trajectories of change in lake properties e.g., water quality, physical structure, hydrological regime and ecological behaviour. This approach furthermore provides the evidence base to understand the relative importance of climatic forcing and/or changing catchment processes, e.g. land cover and soil moisture data, which coupled with climate data provide the basis to model regional water balance and runoff estimates over time. Using examples derived primarily from the Danube Basin but also other parts of the World, we demonstrate the power of the approach and its utility to assess the sensitivity of lake systems to environmental change, and hence better manage these key resources in the future.