Spatial aspects of MRSA epidemiology:A case study using stochastic simulation, kernel estimation and SaTScan

The identification of disease clusters in space or space-time is of vital importance for public health policy and action. In the case of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA), it is particularly important to distinguish between community and health care-associated infections, and to identify reservoirs of infection. 832 cases of MRSA in the West Midlands (UK) were tested for clustering and evidence of community transmission, after being geo-located to the centroids of UK unit postcodes (postal areas roughly equivalent to Zip+4 zip code areas). An age-stratified analysis was also carried out at the coarser spatial resolution of UK Census Output Areas. Stochastic simulation and kernel density estimation were combined to identify significant local clusters of MRSA (p<0.025), which were supported by SaTScan spatial and spatio-temporal scan. In order to investigate local sampling effort, a spatial 'random labelling' approach was used, with MRSA as cases and MSSA (methicillin-sensitive S. aureus) as controls. Heavy sampling in general was a response to MRSA outbreaks, which in turn appeared to be associated with medical care environments. The significance of clusters identified by kernel estimation was independently supported by information on the locations and client groups of nursing homes, and by preliminary molecular typing of isolates. In the absence of occupational/ lifestyle data on patients, the assumption was made that an individual's location and consequent risk is adequately represented by their residential postcode. The problems of this assumption are discussed, with recommendations for future data collection.

Software for Remote Parallel Simulation

This paper describes distributed/parallel simulation system Triad.Net and software, which allows geographical distributed users to participate collaboratively and remotely in simulation experiments and to observe simulation model behavior via Internet.

The effect of climate change on the population of sycamore lace bug (Corythuca ciliata, Say) based on a simulation model with phenological response

Climate change affects on insect populations in many ways: it can cause a shift in geographical spread, abundance, or diversity, it can change the location, the timing and the magnitude of outbreaks of pests and it can define the phenological or even the genetic properties of the species. Long-time investigations of special insect populations, simulation models and scenario studies give us very important information about the response of the insects far away and near to our century. Getting to know the potential responses of insect populations to climate change makes us possible to evaluate the adaptation of pest management alternatives as well as to formulate our future management policy. In this paper we apply two simple models, in order to introduce a complex case study for a Sycamore lace bug population. We test how the model works in case the whether conditions are very different from those in our days. Thus, besides we can understand the processes that happen in present, we can analyze the effects of a possible climate change, as well.

Geographical Distribution Of The Association Between El Niño South Oscillation And Dengue Fever In The Americas: A Continental Analysis Using Geographical Information System-based Techniques.

El Niño South Oscillation (ENSO) is one climatic phenomenon related to the inter-annual variability of global meteorological patterns influencing sea surface temperature and rainfall variability. It influences human health indirectly through extreme temperature and moisture conditions that may accelerate the spread of some vector-borne viral diseases, like dengue fever (DF). This work examines the spatial distribution of association between ENSO and DF in the countries of the Americas during 1995-2004, which includes the 1997-1998 El Niño, one of the most important climatic events of 20(th) century. Data regarding the South Oscillation index (SOI), indicating El Niño-La Niña activity, were obtained from Australian Bureau of Meteorology. The annual DF incidence (AIy) by country was computed using Pan-American Health Association data. SOI and AIy values were standardised as deviations from the mean and plotted in bars-line graphics. The regression coefficient values between SOI and AIy (rSOI,AI) were calculated and spatially interpolated by an inverse distance weighted algorithm. The results indicate that among the five years registering high number of cases (1998, 2002, 2001, 2003 and 1997), four had El Niño activity. In the southern hemisphere, the annual spatial weighted mean centre of epidemics moved southward, from 6° 31' S in 1995 to 21° 12' S in 1999 and the rSOI,AI values were negative in Cuba, Belize, Guyana and Costa Rica, indicating a synchrony between higher DF incidence rates and a higher El Niño activity. The rSOI,AI map allows visualisation of a graded surface with higher values of ENSO-DF associations for Mexico, Central America, northern Caribbean islands and the extreme north-northwest of South America.

Monte Carlo Simulation Of The Response Functions Of Cdte Detectors To Be Applied In X-ray Spectroscopy.

In this work, the energy response functions of a CdTe detector were obtained by Monte Carlo (MC) simulation in the energy range from 5 to 160keV, using the PENELOPE code. In the response calculations the carrier transport features and the detector resolution were included. The computed energy response function was validated through comparison with experimental results obtained with (241)Am and (152)Eu sources. In order to investigate the influence of the correction by the detector response at diagnostic energy range, x-ray spectra were measured using a CdTe detector (model XR-100T, Amptek), and then corrected by the energy response of the detector using the stripping procedure. Results showed that the CdTe exhibits good energy response at low energies (below 40keV), showing only small distortions on the measured spectra. For energies below about 80keV, the contribution of the escape of Cd- and Te-K x-rays produce significant distortions on the measured x-ray spectra. For higher energies, the most important correction is the detector efficiency and the carrier trapping effects. The results showed that, after correction by the energy response, the measured spectra are in good agreement with those provided by a theoretical model of the literature. Finally, our results showed that the detailed knowledge of the response function and a proper correction procedure are fundamental for achieving more accurate spectra from which quality parameters (i.e., half-value layer and homogeneity coefficient) can be determined.

Influence of intrapulpal pressure simulation on the bond strength of adhesive systems to dentin

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the influence of intrapulpal pressure simulation on the bonding effectiveness of etch & rinse and self-etch adhesives to dentin. Eighty sound human molars were distributed into eight groups, according to the permeability level of each sample, measured by an apparatus to assess hydraulic conductance (Lp). Thus, a similar mean permeability was achieved in each group. Three etch & rinse adhesives (Prime & Bond NT - PB, Single Bond -SB, and Excite - EX) and one self-etch system (Clearfil SE Bond - SE) were employed, varying the presence or absence of an intrapulpal pressure (IPP) simulation of 15 cmH2O. After adhesive and restorative procedures were carried out, the samples were stored in distilled water for 24 hours at 37°C, and taken for tensile bond strength (TBS) testing. Fracture analysis was performed using a light microscope at 40 X magnification. The data, obtained in MPa, were then submitted to the Kruskal-Wallis test ( a = 0.05). The results revealed that the TBS of SB and EX was significantly reduced under IPP simulation, differing from the TBS of PB and SE. Moreover, SE obtained the highest bond strength values in the presence of IPP. It could be concluded that IPP simulation can influence the bond strength of certain adhesive systems to dentin and should be considered when in vitro studies are conducted.

Geographical and seasonal distributions of the seedeaters Sporophila bouvreuil and Sporophila pileata (aves: Emberizidae)

Many species in the genus Sporophila are migratory. Migration patterns, while poorly studied, may be influenced by seed production which can be very seasonal in some regions. The distribution of S. bouvreuil extends from the Amazon and Suriname south through a large part of the open regions of Brazil. Sporophila pileata, on the other hand, is found in southeastern and southern Brazil as well as Argentina and Paraguay. Both of these species migrate, but their movement patterns are poorly known. To better understand the geographical and the seasonal distributions of S. bouvreuil and S. pileata, we grouped the records into two categories: the breeding season (September to March) and the putative migration season (April to August). We found two areas of sympatry between S. bouvreuil and S. pileata in the Brazilian states of Minas Gerais and São Paulo. For S. bouvreuil we suggest that populations that breed in the Amazon migrate to the Cerrado or Caatinga, where they will encounter resident populations of the same species. These resident populations may take part in short distance migrations. Sporophila pileata, on the other hand, occur in the Cerrado and open areas within the Atlantic Forest and it is not yet possible to determine migratory tendencies or destinations in the non-breeding season.

Evaluation of thermal simulation of households in the metropolitan region of São Paulo, Brazil

Abstract This paper aims at assessing the performance of a program of thermal simulation (Arquitrop) in different households in the city of Sao Paulo, Brazil. The households were selected for the Wheezing Project which followed up children under 2 years old to monitor the occurrence of respiratory diseases. The results show that in all three study households there is a good approximation between the observed and the simulated indoor temperatures. It was also observed a fairly consistent and realistic behavior between the simulated indoor and the outdoor temperatures, describing the Arquitrop model as an efficient estimator and good representative of the thermal behavior of households in the city of Sao Paulo. The worst simulation is linked to the poorest type of construction. This may be explained by the bad quality of the construction, which the Architrop could not simulate adequately

The Process of Simulation Authoring/Creation by Chemistry Teachers: A Service Learning Experience

Two case studies are presented to describe the process of public school teachers authoring and creating chemistry simulations. They are part of the Virtual Didactic Laboratory for Chemistry, a project developed by the School of the Future of the University of Sao Paulo. the documental analysis of the material produced by two groups of teachers reflects different selection process for both themes and problem-situations when creating simulations. The study demonstrates the potential for chemistry learning with an approach that takes students' everyday lives into account and is based on collaborative work among teachers and researches. Also, from the teachers' perspectives, the possibilities of interaction that a simulation offers for classroom activities are considered.

Study of the antimicrobial peptide indolicidin and a mutant in micelle medium by molecular dynamics simulation

The antimicrobial peptide indolicidin (IND) and the mutant CP10A in hydrated micelles were studied using molecular dynamics simulations in order to observe whether the molecular dynamics and experimental data could be sufficiently correlated and a detailed description of the interaction of the antimicrobial peptides with a model of the membrane provided by a hydrated micelle system could be obtained. In agreement with the experiments, the simulations showed that the peptides are located near the surface of the micelles. Peptide insertions agree with available experimental data, showing deeper insertion of the mutant compared with the peptide IND. Major insertion into the hydrophobic core of the micelle by all tryptophan and mutated residues of CP10A in relation to IND was observed. The charged residues of the terminus regions of both peptides present similar behavior, indicating that the major differences in the interactions with the micelles of the peptides IND and CP10A occur in the case of the hydrophobic residues.

The Genomic Ancestry of Individuals from Different Geographical Regions of Brazil Is More Uniform Than Expected

Based on pre-DNA racial/color methodology, clinical and pharmacological trials have traditionally considered the different geographical regions of Brazil as being very heterogeneous. We wished to ascertain how such diversity of regional color categories correlated with ancestry. Using a panel of 40 validated ancestry-informative insertion-deletion DNA polymorphisms we estimated individually the European, African and Amerindian ancestry components of 934 self-categorized White, Brown or Black Brazilians from the four most populous regions of the Country. We unraveled great ancestral diversity between and within the different regions. Especially, color categories in the northern part of Brazil diverged significantly in their ancestry proportions from their counterparts in the southern part of the Country, indicating that diverse regional semantics were being used in the self-classification as White, Brown or Black. To circumvent these regional subjective differences in color perception, we estimated the general ancestry proportions of each of the four regions in a form independent of color considerations. For that, we multiplied the proportions of a given ancestry in a given color category by the official census information about the proportion of that color category in the specific region, to arrive at a ""total ancestry"" estimate. Once such a calculation was performed, there emerged a much higher level of uniformity than previously expected. In all regions studied, the European ancestry was predominant, with proportions ranging from 60.6% in the Northeast to 77.7% in the South. We propose that the immigration of six million Europeans to Brazil in the 19(th) and 20(th) centuries - a phenomenon described and intended as the ""whitening of Brazil"" -is in large part responsible for dissipating previous ancestry dissimilarities that reflected region-specific population histories. These findings, of both clinical and sociological importance for Brazil, should also be relevant to other countries with ancestrally admixed populations.

Fossil groups in the Millennium Simulation Evolution of the brightest galaxies

Aims. We create a catalogue of simulated fossil groups and study their properties, in particular the merging histories of their first-ranked galaxies. We compare the simulated fossil group properties with those of both simulated non-fossil and observed fossil groups. Methods. Using simulations and a mock galaxy catalogue, we searched for massive (>5 x 10(13) h(-1) M-circle dot) fossil groups in the Millennium Simulation Galaxy Catalogue. In addition, we attempted to identify observed fossil groups in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Data Release 6 using identical selection criteria. Results. Our predictions on the basis of the simulation data are: (a) fossil groups comprise about 5.5% of the total population of groups/clusters with masses larger than 5 x 10(13) h(-1) M-circle dot. This fraction is consistent with the fraction of fossil groups identified in the SDSS, after all observational biases have been taken into account; (b) about 88% of the dominant central objects in fossil groups are elliptical galaxies that have a median R-band absolute magnitude of similar to-23.5-5 log h, which is typical of the observed fossil groups known in the literature; (c) first-ranked galaxies of systems with M > 5 x 10(13) h(-1) M-circle dot, regardless of whether they are either fossil or non-fossil, are mainly formed by gas-poor mergers; (d) although fossil groups, in general, assembled most of their virial masses at higher redshifts in comparison with non-fossil groups, first-ranked galaxies in fossil groups merged later, i.e. at lower redshifts, compared with their non-fossil-group counterparts. Conclusions. We therefore expect to observe a number of luminous galaxies in the centres of fossil groups that show signs of a recent major merger.

Fossil groups in the Millennium simulation Their environment and its evolution

Context. Fossil systems are defined to be X- ray bright galaxy groups ( or clusters) with a two- magnitude difference between their two brightest galaxies within half the projected virial radius, and represent an interesting extreme of the population of galaxy agglomerations. However, the physical conditions and processes leading to their formation are still poorly constrained. Aims. We compare the outskirts of fossil systems with that of normal groups to understand whether environmental conditions play a significant role in their formation. We study the groups of galaxies in both, numerical simulations and observations. Methods. We use a variety of statistical tools including the spatial cross- correlation function and the local density parameter Delta(5) to probe differences in the density and structure of the environments of "" normal"" and "" fossil"" systems in the Millennium simulation. Results. We find that the number density of galaxies surrounding fossil systems evolves from greater than that observed around normal systems at z = 0.69, to lower than the normal systems by z = 0. Both fossil and normal systems exhibit an increment in their otherwise radially declining local density measure (Delta(5)) at distances of order 2.5 r(vir) from the system centre. We show that this increment is more noticeable for fossil systems than normal systems and demonstrate that this difference is linked to the earlier formation epoch of fossil groups. Despite the importance of the assembly time, we show that the environment is different for fossil and non- fossil systems with similar masses and formation times along their evolution. We also confirm that the physical characteristics identified in the Millennium simulation can also be detected in SDSS observations. Conclusions. Our results confirm the commonly held belief that fossil systems assembled earlier than normal systems but also show that the surroundings of fossil groups could be responsible for the formation of their large magnitude gap.

Phylogeography of the common vampire bat (Desmodus rotundus): Marked population structure, Neotropical Pleistocene vicariance and incongruence between nuclear and mtDNA markers

Background: The common vampire bat Desmodus rotundus is an excellent model organism for studying ecological vicariance in the Neotropics due to its broad geographic range and its preference for forested areas as roosting sites. With the objective of testing for Pleistocene ecological vicariance, we sequenced a mitocondrial DNA (mtDNA) marker and two nuclear markers (RAG2 and DRB) to try to understand how Pleistocene glaciations affected the distribution of intraspecific lineages in this bat. Results: Five reciprocally monophyletic clades were evident in the mitochondrial gene tree, and in most cases with high bootstrap support: Central America (CA), Amazon and Cerrado (AMC), Pantanal (PAN), Northern Atlantic Forest (NAF) and Southern Atlantic Forest (SAF). The Atlantic forest clades formed a monophyletic clade with high bootstrap support, creating an east/west division for this species in South America. On the one hand, all coalescent and non-coalescent estimates point to a Pleistocene time of divergence between the clades. On the other hand, the nuclear markers showed extensive sharing of haplotypes between distant localities, a result compatible with male-biased gene flow. In order to test if the disparity between the mitochondrial and nuclear markers was due to the difference in mutation rate and effective size, we performed a coalescent simulation to examine the feasibility that, given the time of separation between the observed lineages, even with a gene flow rate close to zero, there would not be reciprocal monophyly for a neutral nuclear marker. We used the observed values of theta and an estimated mutation rate for the nuclear marker gene to perform 1000 iterations of the simulation. The results of this simulation were inconclusive: the number of iterations with and without reciprocal monophyly of one or more clades are similar. Conclusions: We therefore conclude that the pattern exhibited by the common vampire bat, with marked geographical structure for a mitochondrial marker and no phylogeographic structure for nuclear markers is compatible with a historical scenario of complete isolation of refuge-like populations during the Pleistocene. The results on demographic history on this species is compatible with the Carnaval-Moritz model of Pleistocene vicariance, with demographic expansions in the southern Atlantic forest.

Combining Monte Carlo simulation and density-functional theory to describe the spectral changes of Na(2) in liquid helium

Spectral changes of Na(2) in liquid helium were studied using the sequential Monte Carlo-quantum mechanics method. Configurations composed by Na(2) surrounded by explicit helium atoms sampled from the Monte Carlo simulation were submitted to time-dependent density-functional theory calculations of the electronic absorption spectrum using different functionals. Attention is given to both line shift and line broadening. The Perdew, Burke, and Ernzerhof (PBE1PBE, also known as PBE0) functional, with the PBE1PBE/6-311++G(2d,2p) basis set, gives the spectral shift, compared to gas phase, of 500 cm(-1) for the allowed X (1)Sigma(+)(g) -> B (1)Pi(u) transition, in very good agreement with the experimental value (700 cm(-1)). For comparison, cluster calculations were also performed and the first X (1)Sigma(+)(g) -> A (1)Sigma(+)(u) transition was also considered.