Landscape, regional and global estimates of nitrogen flux from land to sea: errors and uncertainties

Regional to global scale modelling of N flux from land to ocean has progressed to date through the development of simple empirical models representing bulk N flux rates from large watersheds, regions, or continents on the basis of a limited selection of model parameters. Watershed scale N flux modelling has developed a range of physically-based approaches ranging from models where N flux rates are predicted through a physical representation of the processes involved, through to catchment scale models which provide a simplified representation of true systems behaviour. Generally, these watershed scale models describe within their structure the dominant process controls on N flux at the catchment or watershed scale, and take into account variations in the extent to which these processes control N flux rates as a function of landscape sensitivity to N cycling and export. This paper addresses the nature of the errors and uncertainties inherent in existing regional to global scale models, and the nature of error propagation associated with upscaling from small catchment to regional scale through a suite of spatial aggregation and conceptual lumping experiments conducted on a validated watershed scale model, the export coefficient model. Results from the analysis support the findings of other researchers developing macroscale models in allied research fields. Conclusions from the study confirm that reliable and accurate regional scale N flux modelling needs to take account of the heterogeneity of landscapes and the impact that this has on N cycling processes within homogenous landscape units.

Are large-scale distributional shifts of the blue-winged macaw (Primolius maracana) related to climate change?

Aim To evaluate whether observed geographical shifts in the distribution of the blue-winged macaw (Primolius maracana) are related to ongoing processes of global climate change. This species is vulnerable to extinction and has shown striking range retractions in recent decades, withdrawing broadly from southern portions of its historical distribution. Its range reduction has generally been attributed to the effects of habitat loss; however, as this species has also disappeared from large forested areas, consideration of other factors that may act in concert is merited.Location Historical distribution of the blue-winged macaw in Brazil, eastern Paraguay and northern Argentina.Methods We used a correlative approach to test a hypothesis of causation of observed shifts by reduction of habitable areas mediated by climate change. We developed models of the ecological niche requirements of the blue-winged macaw, based on point-occurrence data and climate scenarios for pre-1950 and post-1950 periods, and tested model predictivity for anticipating geographical distributions within time periods. Then we projected each model to the other time period and compared distributions predicted under both climate scenarios to assess shifts of habitable areas across decades and to evaluate an explanation for observed range retractions.Results Differences between predicted distributions of the blue-winged macaw over the twentieth century were, in general, minor and no change in suitability of landscapes was predicted across large areas of the species' original range in different time periods. No tendency towards range retraction in the south was predicted, rather conditions in the southern part of the species' range tended to show improvement for the species.Main conclusions Our test permitted elimination of climate change as a likely explanation for the observed shifts in the distribution of the blue-winged macaw, and points rather to other causal explanations (e.g. changing regional land use, emerging diseases).

Zoneamento geoambiental da área urbana do município de Cubatão - SP

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Diagnóstico do estado geoambiental da área urbana do município de Cubatão (SP)

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Environmental suitability of a highly fragmented and heterogeneous landscape for forest bird species in south-eastern Brazil

Assessment of the suitability of anthropogenic landscapes for wildlife species is crucial for setting priorities for biodiversity conservation. This study aimed to analyse the environmental suitability of a highly fragmented region of the Brazilian Atlantic Forest, one of the world's 25 recognized biodiversity hotspots, for forest bird species. Eight forest bird species were selected for the analyses, based on point counts (n = 122) conducted in April-September 2006 and January-March 2009. Six additional variables (landscape diversity, distance from forest and streams, aspect, elevation and slope) were modelled in Maxent for (1) actual and (2) simulated land cover, based on the forest expansion required by existing Brazilian forest legislation. Models were evaluated by bootstrap or jackknife methods and their performance was assessed by AUC, omission error, binomial probability or p value. All predictive models were statistically significant, with high AUC values and low omission errors. A small proportion of the actual landscape (24.41 +/- 6.31%) was suitable for forest bird species. The simulated landscapes lead to an increase of c. 30% in total suitable areas. In average, models predicted a small increase (23.69 +/- 6.95%) in the area of suitable native forest for bird species. Being close to forest increased the environmental suitability of landscapes for all bird species; landscape diversity was also a significant factor for some species. In conclusion, this study demonstrates that species distribution modelling (SDM) successfully predicted bird distribution across a heterogeneous landscape at fine spatial resolution, as all models were biologically relevant and statistically significant. The use of landscape variables as predictors contributed significantly to the results, particularly for species distributions over small extents and at fine scales. This is the first study to evaluate the environmental suitability of the remaining Brazilian Atlantic Forest for bird species in an agricultural landscape, and provides important additional data for regional environmental planning.

Landscape mosaics maps as a basis for spatial assessment and negotiation of ecosystem services and their trade-offs at the meso-scale: Examples from Laos, Madagascar and China

Mapping ecosystem services (ES) and their trade-offs is a key requirement for informed decision making for land use planning and management of natural resources that aim to move towards increasing the sustainability of landscapes. The negotiations of the purposes of landscapes and the services they should provide are difficult as there is an increasing number of stakeholders active at different levels with a variety of interests present on one particular landscape.Traditionally, land cover data is at the basis for mapping and spatial monitoring of ecosystem services. In light of complex landscapes it is however questionable whether land cover per se and as a spatial base unit is suitable for monitoring and management at the meso-scale. Often the characteristics of a landscape are defined by prevalence, composition and specific spatial and temporal patterns of different land cover types. The spatial delineation of shifting cultivation agriculture represents a prominent example of a land use system with its different land use intensities that requires alternative methodologies that go beyond the common remote sensing approaches of pixel-based land cover analysis due to the spatial and temporal dynamics of rotating cultivated and fallow fields.Against this background we advocate that adopting a landscape perspective to spatial planning and decision making offers new space for negotiation and collaboration, taking into account the needs of local resource users, and of the global community. For this purpose we introduce landscape mosaicsdefined as new spatial unit describing generalized land use types. Landscape mosaics have allowed us to chart different land use systems and land use intensities and permitted us to delineate changes in these land use systems based on changes of external claims on these landscapes. The underlying idea behindthe landscape mosaics is to use land cover data typically derived from remote sensing data and to analyse and classify spatial patterns of this land cover data using a moving window approach. We developed the landscape mosaics approach in tropical, forest dominated landscapesparticularly shifting cultivation areas and present examples ofour work from northern Laos, eastern Madagascarand Yunnan Province in China.

A Texture-based land cover classification for the delineation of a shifting cultivation landscape in the Lao PDR using landscape metrics

The delineation of shifting cultivation landscapes using remote sensing in mountainous regions is challenging. On the one hand, there are difficulties related to the distinction of forest and fallow forest classes as occurring in a shifting cultivation landscape in mountainous regions. On the other hand, the dynamic nature of the shifting cultivation system poses problems to the delineation of landscapes where shifting cultivation occurs. We present a two-step approach based on an object-oriented classification of Advanced Land Observing Satellite, Advanced Visible and Near-Infrared Spectrometer (ALOS AVNIR) and Panchromatic Remote-sensing Instrument for Stereo Mapping (ALOS PRISM) data and landscape metrics. When including texture measures in the object-oriented classification, the accuracy of forest and fallow forest classes could be increased substantially. Based on such a classification, landscape metrics in the form of land cover class ratios enabled the identification of crop-fallow rotation characteristics of the shifting cultivation land use practice. By classifying and combining these landscape metrics, shifting cultivation landscapes could be delineated using a single land cover dataset.

Towards a spatial understanding of trade-offs in sustainable development: A meso-scale analysis of the nexus between land use, poverty, and environment in the Lao PDR

In land systems, equitably managing trade-offs between planetary boundaries and human development needs represents a grand challenge in sustainability oriented initiatives. Informing such initiatives requires knowledge about the nexus between land use, poverty, and environment. This paper presents results from Lao PDR, where we combined nationwide spatial data on land use types and the environmental state of landscapes with village-level poverty indicators. Our analysis reveals two general but contrasting trends. First, landscapes with paddy or permanent agriculture allow a greater number of people to live in less poverty but come at the price of a decrease in natural vegetation cover. Second, people practising extensive swidden agriculture and living in intact environments are often better off than people in degraded paddy or permanent agriculture. As poverty rates within different landscape types vary more than between landscape types, we cannot stipulate a land use–poverty–environment nexus. However, the distinct spatial patterns or configurations of these rates point to other important factors at play. Drawing on ethnicity as a proximate factor for endogenous development potentials and accessibility as a proximate factor for external influences, we further explore these linkages. Ethnicity is strongly related to poverty in all land use types almost independently of accessibility, implying that social distance outweighs geographic or physical distance. In turn, accessibility, almost a precondition for poverty alleviation, is mainly beneficial to ethnic majority groups and people living in paddy or permanent agriculture. These groups are able to translate improved accessibility into poverty alleviation. Our results show that the concurrence of external influences with local—highly contextual—development potentials is key to shaping outcomes of the land use–poverty–environment nexus. By addressing such leverage points, these findings help guide more effective development interventions. At the same time, they point to the need in land change science to better integrate the understanding of place-based land indicators with process-based drivers of land use change.

Paleohydraulic reconstruction of a 40 kyr-old terrace sequence implies that water discharge was larger than today

The evolution of landscapes crucially depends on the climate history. This is particularly evident in South America where landscape responses to orbital climate shifts have been well documented. However, while most studies have focused on inferring temperature variations from paleoclimate proxy data, estimates of water budget changes have been complicated because of a lack of adequate physical information. Here, we present a methodology and related results, which allowed us to extract water discharge values from the sedimentary record of the 40 Ka-old fluvial terrace deposits in the Pisco valley, western Peru. In particular, this valley hosts a Quaternary cut-and-fill succession that we used, in combination with beryllium-10 (10Be)-based sediment flux, gauging records, channel geometries and grain size measurements, to quantitatively assess sediment and water discharge values c. 40 Ka ago in relation to present-day conditions. We compare these discharge estimates to the discharge regime of the modern Pisco River and find that the water discharge of the paleo-Pisco River, during the Minchin pluvial period c. 40 Ka ago, was c. 7–8 times greater than the modern Pisco River if considering the mean and the maximum water discharge. In addition, the calculations show that inferred water discharge estimates are mainly dependent on channel gradients and grain size values, and to a lesser extent on channel width measures. Finally, we found that the c. 40 Ka-old Minchin terrace material was poorer sorted than the modern deposits, which might reflect that sediment transport during the past period was characterized by a larger divergence from equal mobility compared to the modern situation. In summary, the differences in grain size distribution and inferred water discharge estimates between the modern and the paleo-Pisco River suggests that the 40 Ka-old Minchin period was characterized by a wetter climate and more powerful flood events.

Evaluación geoecológica de los paisajes del Departamento Minas (Provincia de Neuquén), para el estudio de la degradación de la tierra

Las sociedades en su afán de aprovechar los recursos naturales que la tierra le provee, han ido transformando permanentemente el medio que habitamos, generando una crisis ambiental que es tema de preocupación y permanente discusión en organismos, foros y conferencias relacionados con el cuidado y protección del medio ambiente. En las regiones áridas y semiáridas uno de los problemas ambientales más comunes es la degradación de tierras por efecto del sobrepastoreo. La tercera parte de la superficie terrestre del planeta es árida y semiárida y en ella los procesos de desertización se han intensificado en los últimos decenios. Según la Convención de las Naciones Unidas de lucha contra la Desertificación (CNULD), este problema amenaza al 40 por ciento aproximadamente, de la masa terrestre de nuestro planeta. Más de 1000 millones de personas en alrededor de 100 países están afectadas directamente por la desertificación o corren peligro de estarlo (CNULD, 2003), estimándose que "la pérdida de ingresos en las áreas afectadas alcanza a unos 42.000 millones de dólares". Argentina en general y la Patagonia en particular, no son ajenas a esta situación. La Secretaría de Recursos Naturales y Medio Ambiente Humano (1996), calcula que aproximadamente el 75 por ciento de nuestro territorio nacional se encuentra afectado por crecientes condiciones de aridez y en la Patagonia, el 90 por ciento de la superficie (unos 780.000 km2) presenta signos de degradación. De esta superficie, un 30 por ciento, está bajo procesos erosivos eólicos e hídricos severos o graves con tendencia a agravarse. Teniendo en cuenta esta situación, esta tesis tiene como propósito aplicar las concepciones metodológicas de la geoecología de los paisajes en el Departamento Minas (Provincia de Neuquén), con vistas a estudiar la estructura y funcionamiento de los paisajes, herramienta fundamental para comprender el fenómeno de la degradación de la tierra. El objetivo central de este trabajo consiste en estudiar la degradación de los paisajes de este lugar a partir de los preceptos de la geoecología, con apoyo de los Sistemas de Información Geográfica y la teledetección, estableciendo índices diagnósticos que reflejen la interacción e interdependencia entre los componentes naturales y sociales del paisaje. El estudio de los paisajes brinda la posibilidad de integrar transdisciplinariamente los conocimientos y percepciones de la diversidad geoecológica y socioeconómica desde una perspectiva dinámica. Mediante este análisis se puede arribar al conocimiento de las formas de ocupación y conservación de los recursos naturales procurando la protección de la oferta ecológica a largo plazo. El paisaje geográfico o geosistema se concibe como "un sistema espacio-temporal, complejo y abierto, que se origina y evoluciona justamente en la interfase naturaleza-sociedad, en un constante estado de intercambio de energía, materia e información, donde su estructura, funcionamiento, dinámica y evolución reflejan la interacción entre los componentes naturales (abióticos y bióticos), técnico-económicos y socio-culturales (Mateo, J. 1991; Salinas. E. 1991y 1997). Se trata de una formación socio-natural que constituye una categoría científica y como tal, será adoptada en este trabajo.

Evaluación geoecológica de los paisajes del Departamento Minas (Provincia de Neuquén), para el estudio de la degradación de la tierra

Las sociedades en su afán de aprovechar los recursos naturales que la tierra le provee, han ido transformando permanentemente el medio que habitamos, generando una crisis ambiental que es tema de preocupación y permanente discusión en organismos, foros y conferencias relacionados con el cuidado y protección del medio ambiente. En las regiones áridas y semiáridas uno de los problemas ambientales más comunes es la degradación de tierras por efecto del sobrepastoreo. La tercera parte de la superficie terrestre del planeta es árida y semiárida y en ella los procesos de desertización se han intensificado en los últimos decenios. Según la Convención de las Naciones Unidas de lucha contra la Desertificación (CNULD), este problema amenaza al 40 por ciento aproximadamente, de la masa terrestre de nuestro planeta. Más de 1000 millones de personas en alrededor de 100 países están afectadas directamente por la desertificación o corren peligro de estarlo (CNULD, 2003), estimándose que "la pérdida de ingresos en las áreas afectadas alcanza a unos 42.000 millones de dólares". Argentina en general y la Patagonia en particular, no son ajenas a esta situación. La Secretaría de Recursos Naturales y Medio Ambiente Humano (1996), calcula que aproximadamente el 75 por ciento de nuestro territorio nacional se encuentra afectado por crecientes condiciones de aridez y en la Patagonia, el 90 por ciento de la superficie (unos 780.000 km2) presenta signos de degradación. De esta superficie, un 30 por ciento, está bajo procesos erosivos eólicos e hídricos severos o graves con tendencia a agravarse. Teniendo en cuenta esta situación, esta tesis tiene como propósito aplicar las concepciones metodológicas de la geoecología de los paisajes en el Departamento Minas (Provincia de Neuquén), con vistas a estudiar la estructura y funcionamiento de los paisajes, herramienta fundamental para comprender el fenómeno de la degradación de la tierra. El objetivo central de este trabajo consiste en estudiar la degradación de los paisajes de este lugar a partir de los preceptos de la geoecología, con apoyo de los Sistemas de Información Geográfica y la teledetección, estableciendo índices diagnósticos que reflejen la interacción e interdependencia entre los componentes naturales y sociales del paisaje. El estudio de los paisajes brinda la posibilidad de integrar transdisciplinariamente los conocimientos y percepciones de la diversidad geoecológica y socioeconómica desde una perspectiva dinámica. Mediante este análisis se puede arribar al conocimiento de las formas de ocupación y conservación de los recursos naturales procurando la protección de la oferta ecológica a largo plazo. El paisaje geográfico o geosistema se concibe como "un sistema espacio-temporal, complejo y abierto, que se origina y evoluciona justamente en la interfase naturaleza-sociedad, en un constante estado de intercambio de energía, materia e información, donde su estructura, funcionamiento, dinámica y evolución reflejan la interacción entre los componentes naturales (abióticos y bióticos), técnico-económicos y socio-culturales (Mateo, J. 1991; Salinas. E. 1991y 1997). Se trata de una formación socio-natural que constituye una categoría científica y como tal, será adoptada en este trabajo.

Evaluación geoecológica de los paisajes del Departamento Minas (Provincia de Neuquén), para el estudio de la degradación de la tierra

Las sociedades en su afán de aprovechar los recursos naturales que la tierra le provee, han ido transformando permanentemente el medio que habitamos, generando una crisis ambiental que es tema de preocupación y permanente discusión en organismos, foros y conferencias relacionados con el cuidado y protección del medio ambiente. En las regiones áridas y semiáridas uno de los problemas ambientales más comunes es la degradación de tierras por efecto del sobrepastoreo. La tercera parte de la superficie terrestre del planeta es árida y semiárida y en ella los procesos de desertización se han intensificado en los últimos decenios. Según la Convención de las Naciones Unidas de lucha contra la Desertificación (CNULD), este problema amenaza al 40 por ciento aproximadamente, de la masa terrestre de nuestro planeta. Más de 1000 millones de personas en alrededor de 100 países están afectadas directamente por la desertificación o corren peligro de estarlo (CNULD, 2003), estimándose que "la pérdida de ingresos en las áreas afectadas alcanza a unos 42.000 millones de dólares". Argentina en general y la Patagonia en particular, no son ajenas a esta situación. La Secretaría de Recursos Naturales y Medio Ambiente Humano (1996), calcula que aproximadamente el 75 por ciento de nuestro territorio nacional se encuentra afectado por crecientes condiciones de aridez y en la Patagonia, el 90 por ciento de la superficie (unos 780.000 km2) presenta signos de degradación. De esta superficie, un 30 por ciento, está bajo procesos erosivos eólicos e hídricos severos o graves con tendencia a agravarse. Teniendo en cuenta esta situación, esta tesis tiene como propósito aplicar las concepciones metodológicas de la geoecología de los paisajes en el Departamento Minas (Provincia de Neuquén), con vistas a estudiar la estructura y funcionamiento de los paisajes, herramienta fundamental para comprender el fenómeno de la degradación de la tierra. El objetivo central de este trabajo consiste en estudiar la degradación de los paisajes de este lugar a partir de los preceptos de la geoecología, con apoyo de los Sistemas de Información Geográfica y la teledetección, estableciendo índices diagnósticos que reflejen la interacción e interdependencia entre los componentes naturales y sociales del paisaje. El estudio de los paisajes brinda la posibilidad de integrar transdisciplinariamente los conocimientos y percepciones de la diversidad geoecológica y socioeconómica desde una perspectiva dinámica. Mediante este análisis se puede arribar al conocimiento de las formas de ocupación y conservación de los recursos naturales procurando la protección de la oferta ecológica a largo plazo. El paisaje geográfico o geosistema se concibe como "un sistema espacio-temporal, complejo y abierto, que se origina y evoluciona justamente en la interfase naturaleza-sociedad, en un constante estado de intercambio de energía, materia e información, donde su estructura, funcionamiento, dinámica y evolución reflejan la interacción entre los componentes naturales (abióticos y bióticos), técnico-económicos y socio-culturales (Mateo, J. 1991; Salinas. E. 1991y 1997). Se trata de una formación socio-natural que constituye una categoría científica y como tal, será adoptada en este trabajo.

Palynological and geochemical data of sediment core GeoB3910-2 located offshore Northeast Brazil

High resolution palynological and geochemical data of sediment core GeoB 3910-2 (located offshore Northeast Brazil) spanning the period between 19 600 and 14 500 calibrated year bp (19.6-14.5 ka) show a land-cover change in the catchment area of local rivers in two steps related to changes in precipitation associated with Heinrich Event 1 (H1 stadial). At the end of the last glacial maximum, the landscape in semi-arid Northeast Brazil was dominated by a very dry type of caatinga vegetation, mainly composed of grasslands with some herbs and shrubs. After 18 ka, considerably more humid conditions are suggested by changes in the vegetation and by Corg and C/N data indicative of fluvial erosion. The caatinga became wetter and along lakes and rivers, sedges and gallery forest expanded. The most humid period was recorded between 16.5 and 15 ka, when humid gallery (and floodplain) forest and even small patches of mountainous Atlantic rain forest occurred together with dry forest, the latter being considered as a rather lush type of caatinga vegetation. During this humid phase erosion decreased as less lithogenic material and more organic terrestrial material were deposited on the continental slope of northern Brazil. After 15 ka arid conditions returned. During the humid second phase of the H1 stadial, a rich variety of landscapes existed in Northeast Brazil and during the drier periods small pockets of forest could probably survive in favorable spots, which would have increased the resilience of the forest to climate change.

Maps of subsoil temperature and active layer depth of Yakutian ASSR (Autonomous Soviet Socialist Republic of the Soviet Union)

Based on the map of landscapes and permafrost conditions in Yakutia (Merzlotno-landshaftnaya karta Yakutskoi0 ASSR, Gosgeodeziya SSSR, 1991), rasterized maps of permafrost temperature and active-layer thickness of Yakutia, East Siberia were derived. The mean and standard deviation at 0.5-degree grid cell size are estimated by assigning a probability density function at 0.001-degree spatial resolution. Spatial pattern of both variables are dominated by a climatic gradient from north to south, and by mountains and the soil type distribution. Uncertainties are highest in mountains and in the sporadic permafrost zone in the south. The maps are best suited as a benchmark for land surface models which include a permafrost module.