Statistical model based 3D shape prediction of postoperative trunks for non-invasive scoliosis surgery planning

One of the major concerns of scoliosis patients undergoing surgical treatment is the aesthetic aspect of the surgery outcome. It would be useful to predict the postoperative appearance of the patient trunk in the course of a surgery planning process in order to take into account the expectations of the patient. In this paper, we propose to use least squares support vector regression for the prediction of the postoperative trunk 3D shape after spine surgery for adolescent idiopathic scoliosis. Five dimensionality reduction techniques used in conjunction with the support vector machine are compared. The methods are evaluated in terms of their accuracy, based on the leave-one-out cross-validation performed on a database of 141 cases. The results indicate that the 3D shape predictions using a dimensionality reduction obtained by simultaneous decomposition of the predictors and response variables have the best accuracy.

Diagnosis of variability and trends in a global precipitation dataset using a physically motivated statistical model

A physically motivated statistical model is used to diagnose variability and trends in wintertime ( October - March) Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) pentad (5-day mean) precipitation. Quasi-geostrophic theory suggests that extratropical precipitation amounts should depend multiplicatively on the pressure gradient, saturation specific humidity, and the meridional temperature gradient. This physical insight has been used to guide the development of a suitable statistical model for precipitation using a mixture of generalized linear models: a logistic model for the binary occurrence of precipitation and a Gamma distribution model for the wet day precipitation amount. The statistical model allows for the investigation of the role of each factor in determining variations and long-term trends. Saturation specific humidity q(s) has a generally negative effect on global precipitation occurrence and with the tropical wet pentad precipitation amount, but has a positive relationship with the pentad precipitation amount at mid- and high latitudes. The North Atlantic Oscillation, a proxy for the meridional temperature gradient, is also found to have a statistically significant positive effect on precipitation over much of the Atlantic region. Residual time trends in wet pentad precipitation are extremely sensitive to the choice of the wet pentad threshold because of increasing trends in low-amplitude precipitation pentads; too low a choice of threshold can lead to a spurious decreasing trend in wet pentad precipitation amounts. However, for not too small thresholds, it is found that the meridional temperature gradient is an important factor for explaining part of the long-term trend in Atlantic precipitation.

Diagnosis of variability and trends in a global precipitation dataset using a physically motivated statistical model

A physically motivated statistical model is used to diagnose variability and trends in wintertime ( October - March) Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) pentad (5-day mean) precipitation. Quasi-geostrophic theory suggests that extratropical precipitation amounts should depend multiplicatively on the pressure gradient, saturation specific humidity, and the meridional temperature gradient. This physical insight has been used to guide the development of a suitable statistical model for precipitation using a mixture of generalized linear models: a logistic model for the binary occurrence of precipitation and a Gamma distribution model for the wet day precipitation amount. The statistical model allows for the investigation of the role of each factor in determining variations and long-term trends. Saturation specific humidity q(s) has a generally negative effect on global precipitation occurrence and with the tropical wet pentad precipitation amount, but has a positive relationship with the pentad precipitation amount at mid- and high latitudes. The North Atlantic Oscillation, a proxy for the meridional temperature gradient, is also found to have a statistically significant positive effect on precipitation over much of the Atlantic region. Residual time trends in wet pentad precipitation are extremely sensitive to the choice of the wet pentad threshold because of increasing trends in low-amplitude precipitation pentads; too low a choice of threshold can lead to a spurious decreasing trend in wet pentad precipitation amounts. However, for not too small thresholds, it is found that the meridional temperature gradient is an important factor for explaining part of the long-term trend in Atlantic precipitation.

A combined engineering and statistical model of UK domestic appliance electrical load profiles

The development of a combined engineering and statistical Artificial Neural Network model of UK domestic appliance load profiles is presented. The model uses diary-style appliance use data and a survey questionnaire collected from 51 suburban households and 46 rural households during the summer of 2010 and2011 respectively. It also incorporates measured energy data and is sensitive to socioeconomic, physical dwelling and temperature variables. A prototype model is constructed in MATLAB using a two layer feed forward network with back propagation training which has a 12:10:24 architecture. Model outputs include appliance load profiles which can be applied to the fields of energy planning (microrenewables and smart grids), building simulation tools and energy policy.

A statistical model for sea surface diurnal warming driven by numercial weather predictions fluxes and winds

A statistical model is derived relating the diurnal variation of sea surface temperature (SST) to the net surface heat flux and surface wind speed from a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. The model is derived using fluxes and winds from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) NWP model and SSTs from the Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI). In the model, diurnal warming has a linear dependence on the net surface heat flux integrated since (approximately) dawn and an inverse quadratic dependence on the maximum of the surface wind speed in the same period. The model coefficients are found by matching, for a given integrated heat flux, the frequency distributions of the maximum wind speed and the observed warming. Diurnal cooling, where it occurs, is modelled as proportional to the integrated heat flux divided by the heat capacity of the seasonal mixed layer. The model reproduces the statistics (mean, standard deviation, and 95-percentile) of the diurnal variation of SST seen by SEVIRI and reproduces the geographical pattern of mean warming seen by the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E). We use the functional dependencies in the statistical model to test the behaviour of two physical model of diurnal warming that display contrasting systematic errors.

Study of charge transport in blends of natural rubber and poly(o-methoxyaniline) based on a resistor network statistical model

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

The use of artificial neural networks in analysing the nutritional ecology of Chrysomya megacephala (F.) (Diptera: Calliphoridae), compared with a statistical model

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Statistical Model to DNA Melting

Um modelo estatístico para o DNA é estudado a fim de se obter informações sobre o comportamento de variáveis termodinâmicas. Atenção especial é dada à desnaturação térmica desta macromolécula.

Quark sea structure functions of the nucleon in a statistical model

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

RECENT HEAVY-ION EXPERIMENTS AND STATISTICAL-MODEL OF HADRONS

The combined CERN and Brookhaven heavy ion (H.I.) data supports a scenario of hadron gas which is in chemical and thermal equilibrium at a temperature T of about 140 MeV. Using the Brown-Stachel-Welke model (which gives 150 MeV) we show that in this scenario, the hot nucleons have mass 3 pi T and the pi and rho mesons have masses close to pi T and 2 pi T, respectively. A simple model with pions and quarks supports the co-existence of two phases in these heavy ion experiments, suggesting a second order phase transition. The masses of the pion, rho and the nucleon are intriguingly close to the lattice screening masses.

Statistical model applied to NetFlow for network intrusion detection

The computers and network services became presence guaranteed in several places. These characteristics resulted in the growth of illicit events and therefore the computers and networks security has become an essential point in any computing environment. Many methodologies were created to identify these events; however, with increasing of users and services on the Internet, many difficulties are found in trying to monitor a large network environment. This paper proposes a methodology for events detection in large-scale networks. The proposal approaches the anomaly detection using the NetFlow protocol, statistical methods and monitoring the environment in a best time for the application. © 2010 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.

A statistical model of aggregate fragmentation

Processo FAPESP: 11/08171-3

Problem of the statistical model in deep inelastic scattering phenomenology

Recent deep inelastic data leads to an up-down quark asymmetry of the nucleon sea. Explanations of the flavour asymmetry and the di-lepton production in proton-nucleus collisions call for a temperature T ≈ 100 MeV in a statistical model. This T may be conjectured as being due to the Fulling-Davies-Unruh effect. But it is not possible to fit the structure function itself.

The use of artificial neural networks in analysing the nutritional ecology of Chrysomya megacephala (F.) (Diptera: Calliphoridae), compared with a statistical model

Artificial neural networks (ANNs) have been widely applied to the resolution of complex biological problems. An important feature of neural models is that their implementation is not precluded by the theoretical distribution shape of the data used. Frequently, the performance of ANNs over linear or non-linear regression-based statistical methods is deemed to be significantly superior if suitable sample sizes are provided, especially in multidimensional and non-linear processes. The current work was aimed at utilising three well-known neural network methods in order to evaluate whether these models would be able to provide more accurate outcomes in relation to a conventional regression method in pupal weight predictions of Chrysomya megacephala, a species of blowfly (Diptera: Calliphoridae), using larval density (i.e. the initial number of larvae), amount of available food and pupal size as input data. It was possible to notice that the neural networks yielded more accurate performances in comparison with the statistical model (multiple regression). Assessing the three types of networks utilised (Multi-layer Perceptron, Radial Basis Function and Generalised Regression Neural Network), no considerable differences between these models were detected. The superiority of these neural models over a classical statistical method represents an important fact, because more accurate models may clarify several intricate aspects concerning the nutritional ecology of blowflies.

Sustainable improvement of water networks : to achieve best decisions for rehabilitation plans using advanced GIS and statistical techniques

Many of developing countries are facing crisis in water management due to increasing of population, water scarcity, water contaminations and effects of world economic crisis. Water distribution systems in developing countries are facing many challenges of efficient repair and rehabilitation since the information of water network is very limited, which makes the rehabilitation assessment plans very difficult. Sufficient information with high technology in developed countries makes the assessment for rehabilitation easy. Developing countries have many difficulties to assess the water network causing system failure, deterioration of mains and bad water quality in the network due to pipe corrosion and deterioration. The limited information brought into focus the urgent need to develop economical assessment for rehabilitation of water distribution systems adapted to water utilities. Gaza Strip is subject to a first case study, suffering from severe shortage in the water supply and environmental problems and contamination of underground water resources. This research focuses on improvement of water supply network to reduce the water losses in water network based on limited database using techniques of ArcGIS and commercial water network software (WaterCAD). A new approach for rehabilitation water pipes has been presented in Gaza city case study. Integrated rehabilitation assessment model has been developed for rehabilitation water pipes including three components; hydraulic assessment model, Physical assessment model and Structural assessment model. WaterCAD model has been developed with integrated in ArcGIS to produce the hydraulic assessment model for water network. The model have been designed based on pipe condition assessment with 100 score points as a maximum points for pipe condition. As results from this model, we can indicate that 40% of water pipeline have score points less than 50 points and about 10% of total pipes length have less than 30 score points. By using this model, the rehabilitation plans for each region in Gaza city can be achieved based on available budget and condition of pipes. The second case study is Kuala Lumpur Case from semi-developed countries, which has been used to develop an approach to improve the water network under crucial conditions using, advanced statistical and GIS techniques. Kuala Lumpur (KL) has water losses about 40% and high failure rate, which make severe problem. This case can represent cases in South Asia countries. Kuala Lumpur faced big challenges to reduce the water losses in water network during last 5 years. One of these challenges is high deterioration of asbestos cement (AC) pipes. They need to replace more than 6500 km of AC pipes, which need a huge budget to be achieved. Asbestos cement is subject to deterioration due to various chemical processes that either leach out the cement material or penetrate the concrete to form products that weaken the cement matrix. This case presents an approach for geo-statistical model for modelling pipe failures in a water distribution network. Database of Syabas Company (Kuala Lumpur water company) has been used in developing the model. The statistical models have been calibrated, verified and used to predict failures for both networks and individual pipes. The mathematical formulation developed for failure frequency in Kuala Lumpur was based on different pipeline characteristics, reflecting several factors such as pipe diameter, length, pressure and failure history. Generalized linear model have been applied to predict pipe failures based on District Meter Zone (DMZ) and individual pipe levels. Based on Kuala Lumpur case study, several outputs and implications have been achieved. Correlations between spatial and temporal intervals of pipe failures also have been done using ArcGIS software. Water Pipe Assessment Model (WPAM) has been developed using the analysis of historical pipe failure in Kuala Lumpur which prioritizing the pipe rehabilitation candidates based on ranking system. Frankfurt Water Network in Germany is the third main case study. This case makes an overview for Survival analysis and neural network methods used in water network. Rehabilitation strategies of water pipes have been developed for Frankfurt water network in cooperation with Mainova (Frankfurt Water Company). This thesis also presents a methodology of technical condition assessment of plastic pipes based on simple analysis. This thesis aims to make contribution to improve the prediction of pipe failures in water networks using Geographic Information System (GIS) and Decision Support System (DSS). The output from the technical condition assessment model can be used to estimate future budget needs for rehabilitation and to define pipes with high priority for replacement based on poor condition. rn