Environmental management problems, future generations and social decisions

The decisions of many individuals and social groups, taking according to well-defined objectives, are causing serious social and environmental problems, in spite of following the dictates of economic rationality. There are many examples of serious problems for which there are not yet appropriate solutions, such as management of scarce natural resources including aquifer water or the distribution of space among incompatible uses. In order to solve these problems, the paper first characterizes the resources and goods involved from an economic perspective. Then, for each case, the paper notes that there is a serious divergence between individual and collective interests and, where possible, it designs the procedure for solving the conflict of interests. With this procedure, the real opportunities for the application of economic theory are shown, and especially the theory on collective goods and externalities. The limitations of conventional economic analysis are shown and the opportunity to correct the shortfalls is examined. Many environmental problems, such as climate change, have an impact on different generations that do not participate in present decisions. The paper shows that for these cases, the solutions suggested by economic theory are not valid. Furthermore, conventional methods of economic valuation (which usually help decision-makers) are unable to account for the existence of different generations and tend to obviate long-term impacts. The paper analyzes how economic valuation methods could account for the costs and benefits enjoyed by present and future generations. The paper studies an appropriate consideration of preferences for future consumption and the incorporation of sustainability as a requirement in social decisions, which implies not only more efficiency but also a fairer distribution between generations than the one implied by conventional economic analysis.

The retained capacity of Lutzomya longipalpis (Lutz & Neiva) to transmit Leishmania chagasi (Cunha & Chagas) after eight years (64 generations in a closed laboratory colony

A closed Lutzomyia longipalpis colony, from Ceará has been used to transmit Leishmania chagasi isolated from a fox in Pará state. The last time this colony was successfully used in similar transmission experiments was eight years (64 generations) ago indicating that this colony of Lu. longipalpis has fully maintained its vectorial capacity in spite of such a long period of maintainance in the laboratory.

The Impact of Population Ageing on the Labour Market: Evidence from Overlapping Generations Computable General Equilibrium (OLG-CGE) Model of Scotland

This paper presents a dynamic Overlapping Generations Computable General Equilibrium (OLG-CGE) model of Scotland. The model is used to examine the impact of population ageing on the labour market. More specifically, it is used to evaluate the effects of labour force decline and labour force ageing on key macro-economic variables. The second effect is assumed to operate through age-specific productivity and labour force participation. In the analysis, particular attention is paid to how population ageing impinges on the government expenditure constraint. The basic structure of the model follows in the Auerbach and Kotlikoff tradition. However, the model takes into consideration directly age-specific mortality. This is analogous to “building in” a cohort-component population projection structure to the model, which allows more complex and more realistic demographic scenarios to be considered.

The Impact of Population Ageing on the Labour Market: Evidence from Overlapping Generations Computable General Equilibrium (OLG-CGE) Model of Scotland

This paper presents a dynamic Overlapping Generations Computable General Equilibrium (OLG-CGE) model of Scotland. The model is used to examine the impact of population ageing on the labour market. More specifically, it is used to evaluate the effects of labour force decline and labour force ageing on key macro-economic variables. The second effect is assumed to operate through age-specific productivity and labour force participation. In the analysis, particular attention is paid to how population ageing impinges on the government expenditure constraint. The basic structure of the model follows in the Auerbach and Kotlikoff tradition. However, the model takes into consideration directly age-specific mortality. This is analogous to “building in” a cohort-component population projection structure to the model, which allows more complex and more realistic demographic scenarios to be considered.

The Inflation Risk Premium on Government Debt in an Overlapping Generations Model

This paper presents a general equilibrium model in which nominal government debt pays an inflation risk premium. The model predicts that the inflation risk premium will be higher in economies which are exposed to unanticipated inflation through nominal asset holdings. In particular, the inflation risk premium is higher when government debt is primarily nominal, steady-state inflation is low, and when cash and nominal debt account for a large fraction of consumers' retirement portfolios. These channels do not appear to have been highlighted in previous models or tested empirically. Numerical results suggest that the inflation risk premium is comparable in magnitude to standard representative agent models. These findings have implications for management of government debt, since the inflation risk premium makes it more costly for governments to borrow using nominal rather than indexed debt. Simulations of an extended model with Epstein-Zin preferences suggest that increasing the share of indexed debt would enable governments to permanently lower taxes by an amount that is quantitatively non-trivial.

Variation in the intensity of inbreeding depression among successive life-cycle stages and generations in gynodioecious Silene vulgaris (Caryophyllaceae).

Inbreeding depression is one of the hypotheses explaining the maintenance of females within gynodioecious plant populations. However, the measurement of fitness components in selfed and outcrossed progeny depends on life-cycle stage and the history of inbreeding. Comparative data indicate that strong inbreeding depression is more likely to occur at later life-cycle stages. We used hermaphrodite individuals of Silene vulgaris originating from three populations located in different valleys in the Swiss Alps to investigate the effect of two generations of self- and cross-fertilization on fitness components among successive stages of the life cycle in a glasshouse experiment. We detected significant inbreeding depression for most life-cycle stages including: the number of viable and aborted seeds per fruit, probability of germination, above ground biomass, probability of flowering, number of flowers per plant, flower size and pollen viability. Overall, the intensity of inbreeding depression increased among successive stages of the life cycle and cumulative inbreeding depression was significantly stronger in the first generation (delta approximately 0.5) compared with the second generation (delta approximately 0.35). We found no evidence for synergistic epistasis in our experiment. Our finding of more intense inbreeding depression during later stages of the life cycle may help to explain the maintenance of females in gynodioecious populations of S. vulgaris because purging of genetic load is less likely to occur.

Aspects related to productivity for four generations of a Lutzomyia longipalpis laboratory colony

A closed colony of Lutzomyia longipalpis was established with specimens collected in the Raposa - Serra do Sol indian reservoir, one of the main foci of visceral leishmaniasis in the State of Roraima, Brazil. Biological observations were made on four generations of a L. longipalpis colony with emphasis on productivity. Aspects studied were the number of laid and retained eggs, and the number of adults (male and female) per generation. During the four generations the percentage of engorged females that laid eggs varied from 64.2% (third generation-F3) to 90.3% (second generation-F2). The mean number of eggs laid per female varied from 23.6 (F3) to 39.9 (first generation-F1). The maximum number of eggs laid per female varied from 84 (F3) to 124 (F1). The mean number of retained eggs per female was 12.7 (parental generation-P and F1) to 22.1 (F2). The number of females exceeded the number of males in all generations. However, significant difference for male/female ratio was found only for F3. Fecundity rates were between 42.1 (F3) and 58.3 (F2). From a total of 439 blood-fed females, 355 females laid 12,257 eggs that yield 5,354 adults (2,525 males and 2,829 females) in four generations. F2 presented maximum productivity and fecundity rates.

Substitution rates at neutral genes depend on population size under fluctuating demography and overlapping generations.

It is widely accepted that the rate of evolution (substitution rate) at neutral genes is unaffected by population size fluctuations. This result has implications for the analysis of genetic data in population genetics and phylogenetics, and provides, in particular, a justification for the concept of the molecular clock. Here, we show that the substitution rate at neutral genes does depend on population size fluctuations in the presence of overlapping generations. As both population size fluctuations and overlapping generations are expected to be the norm rather than the exception in natural populations, this observation may be relevant for understanding variation in substitution rates within and between lineages.

Treatment of an Aedes aegypti colony with the Cry11Aa toxin for 54 generations results in the development of resistance

To study the potential for the emergence of resistance in Aedes aegypti populations, a wild colony was subjected to selective pressure with Cry11Aa, one of four endotoxins that compose the Bacillus thuringiensis serovar israelensis toxin. This bacterium is the base component of the most important biopesticide used in the control of mosquitoes worldwide. After 54 generations of selection, significant resistance levels were observed. At the beginning of the selection experiment, the half lethal concentration was 26.3 ng/mL and had risen to 345.6 ng/mL by generation 54. The highest rate of resistance, 13.1, was detected in the 54th generation. Because digestive proteases play a key role in the processing and activation of B. thuringiensis toxin, we analysed the involvement of insect gut proteases in resistance to the Cry11Aa B. thuringiensis serovar israelensis toxin. The protease activity from larval gut extracts from the Cry11Aa resistant population was lower than that of the B. thuringiensisserovar israelensis susceptible colony. We suggest that differences in protoxin proteolysis could contribute to the resistance of this Ae. aegypti colony.

Significant genetic and phenotypic changes arising from clonal growth of a single spore of an arbuscular mycorrhizal fungus over multiple generations.

Arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) are highly successful plant symbionts. They reproduce clonally producing multinucleate spores. It has been suggested that some AMF harbor genetically different nuclei. However, recent advances in sequencing the Glomus irregulare genome have indicated very low within-fungus polymorphism. We tested the null hypothesis that, with no genetic differences among nuclei, no significant genetic or phenotypic variation would occur among clonal single spore lines generated from one initial AMF spore. Furthermore, no additional variation would be expected in the following generations of single spore lines. Genetic diversity contained in one initial spore repeatedly gave rise to genetically different variants of the fungus with novel phenotypes. The genetic changes represented quantitative changes in allele frequencies, most probably as a result of changes in the frequency of genetic variation partitioned on different nuclei. The genetic and phenotypic variation is remarkable, given that it arose repeatedly from one clonal individual. Our results highlight the dynamic nature of AMF genetics. Even though within-fungus genetic variation is low, some is probably partitioned among nuclei and potentially causes changes in the phenotype. Our results are important for understanding AMF genetics, as well as for researchers and biotechnologists hoping to use AMF genetic diversity for the improvement of AMF inoculum.

Fronts from two-dimensional dispersal kernels: Beyond the nonoverlapping-generations model

Most integrodifference models of biological invasions are based on the nonoverlapping-generations approximation. However, the effect of multiple reproduction events overlapping generations on the front speed can be very important especially for species with a long life spam . Only in one-dimensional space has this approximation been relaxed previously, although almost all biological invasions take place in two dimensions. Here we present a model that takes into account the overlapping generations effect or, more generally, the stage structure of the population , and we analyze the main differences with the corresponding nonoverlappinggenerations results

Asset pricing with idiosyncratic risk and overlapping generations

A number of existing studies have concluded that risk sharing allocations supported by competitive, incomplete markets equilibria are quantitatively close to first-best. Equilibrium asset prices in these models have been difficult to distinguish from those associated with a complete markets model, the counterfactual features of which have been widely documented. This paper asks if life cycle considerations, in conjunction with persistent idiosyncratic shocks which become more volatile during aggregate downturns, can reconcile the quantitative properties of the competitive asset pricing framework with those of observed asset returns. We begin by arguing that data from the Panel Study on Income Dynamics support the plausibility of such a shock process. Our estimates suggest a high degree of persistence as well as a substantial increase in idiosyncratic conditional volatility coincident with periods of low growth in U.S. GNP. When these factors are incorporated in a stationary overlapping generations framework, the implications for the returns on risky assets are substantial. Plausible parameterizations of our economy are able to generate Sharpe ratios which match those observed in U.S. data. Our economy cannot, however, account for the level of variability of stock returns, owing in large part to the specification of its production technology.

Cumulative frequency-dependent selective episodes allow for rapid morph cycles and rock-paper-scissors dynamics in species with overlapping generations.

Rock-paper-scissors (RPS) dynamics, which maintain genetic polymorphisms over time through negative frequency-dependent (FD) selection, can evolve in short-lived species with no generational overlap, where they produce rapid morph frequency cycles. However, most species have overlapping generations and thus, rapid RPS dynamics are thought to require stronger FD selection, the existence of which yet needs to be proved. Here, we experimentally demonstrate that two cumulative selective episodes, FD sexual selection reinforced by FD selection on offspring survival, generate sufficiently strong selection to generate rapid morph frequency cycles in the European common lizard Zootoca vivipara, a multi-annual species with major generational overlap. These findings show that the conditions required for the evolution of RPS games are fulfilled by almost all species exhibiting genetic polymorphisms and suggest that RPS games may be responsible for the maintenance of genetic diversity in a wide range of species.