A Palliative Prognostic Score for Terminally Ill Children and Adolescents With Cancer

Background. The loss of a child is considered the hardest moment in a parent`s life. Studies addressing length of survival under pediatric palliative care are rare. The aim of this study was to improve a survival prediction model for children in palliative care, as accurate information positively impacts parent and child preparation for palliative care. Procedure. Sixty-five children referred to a pediatric palliative care team were followed from August 2003 until December 2006. Variables investigated (also included in previous studies) were: diagnosis, home care provider, presence of anemia, and performance status score given by the home care provider. Clinical variables such as symptom number were also used to test the score`s ability to pre-validated using the above variables. The number of symptoms at transition to palliative care does not improve the score`s predictive ability. The sum of the single scores gives an overall score for each patient, dividing the population into three groups by probability of 60-day survival: Group A 80.0%, Group B 38.0%, and Group C 28.5% (P < 0.001). Conclusion. A pediatric palliative care score based on easily accessible variables is statistically significant in multivariate analysis. Factors that increase accuracy of life expectancy prediction enable adequate information to be given to patients and families, contributing to therapeutic decision-making issues. Pediatr Blood Cancer. 2010;55:1167-1171. (C) 2010 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Prediction of mortality in patients without angina: Use of an exercise score and exercise echocardiography

Background Exercise testing has limited efficacy for identifying coronary artery disease (CAD) in the absence of anginal. symptoms. Exercise echocardiography is more accurate than standard exercise testing, but its efficacy in this situation has not been defined. We sought to identify whether the Duke treadmill. score or exercise echocardiography (ExE) could be used to identify risk in patients without anginal symptoms. Methods We studied 1859 patients without typical or atypical angina, heart failure, or a history or ECG evidence of infarction or CAD, who were referred for ExE, of whom 1832 (age 51 15 years, 944 men) were followed for up to 10 years. The presence and extent of ischaemia and scar were interpreted by expert reviewers at the time of the original study. Results Exercise provoked significant (>0.1 mV) ST segment depression in 215 patients (12%), and wall motion abnormalities in 137 (8%). Seventy-eight patients (4%) died before revascularization, only 17 from known cardiac causes. The independent predictors of death were age (RR 1.1, p

Age, Creatinine and Ejection Fraction Score in Brazil: Comparison with InsCor and the EuroSCORE

AbstractBackground:Risk scores for cardiac surgery cannot continue to be neglected.Objective:To assess the performance of “Age, Creatinine and Ejection Fraction Score” (ACEF Score) to predict mortality in patients submitted to elective coronary artery bypass graft and/or heart valve surgery, and to compare it to other scores.Methods:A prospective cohort study was carried out with the database of a Brazilian tertiary care center. A total of 2,565 patients submitted to elective surgeries between May 2007 and July 2009 were assessed. For a more detailed analysis, the ACEF Score performance was compared to the InsCor’s and EuroSCORE’s performance through correlation, calibration and discrimination tests.Results:Patients were stratified into mild, moderate and severe for all models. Calibration was inadequate for ACEF Score (p = 0.046) and adequate for InsCor (p = 0.460) and EuroSCORE (p = 0.750). As for discrimination, the area under the ROC curve was questionable for the ACEF Score (0.625) and adequate for InsCor (0.744) and EuroSCORE (0.763).Conclusion:Although simple to use and practical, the ACEF Score, unlike InsCor and EuroSCORE, was not accurate for predicting mortality in patients submitted to elective coronary artery bypass graft and/or heart valve surgery in a Brazilian tertiary care center. (Arq Bras Cardiol. 2015; [online].ahead print, PP.0-0)

Lumbar spine texture enhances 10-year fracture probability assessment.

We found that lumbar spine texture analysis using trabecular bone score (TBS) is a risk factor for MOF and a risk factor for death in a retrospective cohort study from a large clinical registry for the province of Manitoba, Canada. INTRODUCTION: FRAX® estimates the 10-year probability of major osteoporotic fracture (MOF) using clinical risk factors and femoral neck bone mineral density (BMD). Trabecular bone score (TBS), derived from texture in the spine dual X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) image, is related to bone microarchitecture and fracture risk independently of BMD. Our objective was to determine whether TBS provides information on MOF probability beyond that provided by the FRAX variables. METHODS: We included 33,352 women aged 40-100 years (mean 63 years) with baseline DXA measurements of lumbar spine TBS and femoral neck BMD. The association between TBS, the FRAX variables, and the risk of MOF or death was examined using an extension of the Poisson regression model. RESULTS: During the mean of 4.7 years, 1,754 women died and 1,872 sustained one or more MOF. For each standard deviation reduction in TBS, there was a 36 % increase in MOF risk (HR 1.36, 95 % CI 1.30-1.42, p < 0.001) and a 32 % increase in death (HR 1.32, 95 % CI 1.26-1.39, p < 0.001). When adjusted for significant clinical risk factors and femoral neck BMD, lumbar spine TBS was still a significant predictor of MOF (HR 1.18, 95 % CI 1.12-1.23) and death (HR 1.20, 95 % CI 1.14-1.26). Models for estimating MOF probability, accounting for competing mortality, showed that low TBS (10th percentile) increased risk by 1.5-1.6-fold compared with high TBS (90th percentile) across a broad range of ages and femoral neck T-scores. CONCLUSIONS: Lumbar spine TBS is able to predict incident MOF independent of FRAX clinical risk factors and femoral neck BMD even after accounting for the increased death hazard.

Development and validation of a risk score predicting substantial weight gain over 5 years in middle-aged European men and women.

BACKGROUND Identifying individuals at high risk of excess weight gain may help targeting prevention efforts at those at risk of various metabolic diseases associated with weight gain. Our aim was to develop a risk score to identify these individuals and validate it in an external population. METHODS We used lifestyle and nutritional data from 53°758 individuals followed for a median of 5.4 years from six centers of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) to develop a risk score to predict substantial weight gain (SWG) for the next 5 years (derivation sample). Assuming linear weight gain, SWG was defined as gaining ≥ 10% of baseline weight during follow-up. Proportional hazards models were used to identify significant predictors of SWG separately by EPIC center. Regression coefficients of predictors were pooled using random-effects meta-analysis. Pooled coefficients were used to assign weights to each predictor. The risk score was calculated as a linear combination of the predictors. External validity of the score was evaluated in nine other centers of the EPIC study (validation sample). RESULTS Our final model included age, sex, baseline weight, level of education, baseline smoking, sports activity, alcohol use, and intake of six food groups. The model's discriminatory ability measured by the area under a receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.64 (95% CI = 0.63-0.65) in the derivation sample and 0.57 (95% CI = 0.56-0.58) in the validation sample, with variation between centers. Positive and negative predictive values for the optimal cut-off value of ≥ 200 points were 9% and 96%, respectively. CONCLUSION The present risk score confidently excluded a large proportion of individuals from being at any appreciable risk to develop SWG within the next 5 years. Future studies, however, may attempt to further refine the positive prediction of the score.

Impact of inadequate empirical therapy on the mortality of patients with bloodstream infections: a propensity score-based analysis.

The impact of the adequacy of empirical therapy on outcome for patients with bloodstream infections (BSI) is key for determining whether adequate empirical coverage should be prioritized over other, more conservative approaches. Recent systematic reviews outlined the need for new studies in the field, using improved methodologies. We assessed the impact of inadequate empirical treatment on the mortality of patients with BSI in the present-day context, incorporating recent methodological recommendations. A prospective multicenter cohort including all BSI episodes in adult patients was performed in 15 hospitals in Andalucía, Spain, over a 2-month period in 2006 to 2007. The main outcome variables were 14- and 30-day mortality. Adjusted analyses were performed by multivariate analysis and propensity score-based matching. Eight hundred one episodes were included. Inadequate empirical therapy was administered in 199 (24.8%) episodes; mortality at days 14 and 30 was 18.55% and 22.6%, respectively. After controlling for age, Charlson index, Pitt score, neutropenia, source, etiology, and presentation with severe sepsis or shock, inadequate empirical treatment was associated with increased mortality at days 14 and 30 (odds ratios [ORs], 2.12 and 1.56; 95% confidence intervals [95% CI], 1.34 to 3.34 and 1.01 to 2.40, respectively). The adjusted ORs after a propensity score-based matched analysis were 3.03 and 1.70 (95% CI, 1.60 to 5.74 and 0.98 to 2.98, respectively). In conclusion, inadequate empirical therapy is independently associated with increased mortality in patients with BSI. Programs to improve the quality of empirical therapy in patients with suspicion of BSI and optimization of definitive therapy should be implemented.

Cross-cultural adaptations of the Oxford-12 HIP score to the French speaking population.

BACKGROUND: An objective measurement of surgical procedures outcomes is inherent to professional practices quality control; this especially applies in orthopaedics to joint replacement outcomes. A self-administered questionnaire offers an attractive alternative to surgeon's judgement but is infrequently used in France for these purposes. The British questionnaire, the 12-item Oxford Hip Score (OHS) was selected for this study because of its ease of use. HYPOTHESIS: The objective of this study was to validate the French translation of the self-assessment 12-item Oxford Hip Score and compare its results with those of the reference functional scores: the Harris Hip Score (HHS) and the Postel-Merle d'Aubigné (PMA) score. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Based on a clinical series of 242 patients who were candidates for total hip arthroplasty, the French translation of this questionnaire was validated. Its coherence was also validated by comparing the preoperative data with the data obtained from the two other reference clinical scores. RESULTS: The translation was validated using the forward-backward translation procedure from French to English, with correction of all differences or mistranslations after systematized comparison with the original questionnaire in English. The mean overall OHS score was 43.8 points (range, 22-60 points) with similarly good distribution of the overall value of the three scores compared. The correlation was excellent between the OHS and the HHS, but an identical correlation between the OHS and the PMA was only obtained for the association of the pain and function parameters, after excluding the mobility criterion, relatively over-represented in the PMA score. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION: Subjective questionnaires that contribute a personal appreciation of the results of arthroplasty by the patient can easily be applied on a large scale. This study made a translated and validated version of an internationally recognized, reliable self-assessment score available to French orthopaedic surgeons. The results obtained encourage us to use this questionnaire as a complement to the classical evaluation scores and methods.

ASTRAL Score Predicts 5-Year Dependence and Mortality in Acute Ischemic Stroke.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The ASTRAL score was externally validated showing remarkable consistency on 3-month outcome prognosis in patients with acute ischemic stroke. The present study aimed to evaluate ASTRAL score's prognostic accuracy to predict 5-year outcome. METHODS: All consecutive patients with acute ischemic stroke registered in the Athens Stroke Registry between January 1, 1998, and December 31, 2010, were included. Patients were excluded if admitted >24 hours after symptom onset or if any ASTRAL score component was missing. End points were 5-year unfavorable functional outcome, defined as modified Rankin Scale 3 to 6, and 5-year mortality. For each outcome, the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve was calculated; also, a multivariate Cox proportional hazards analysis was performed to investigate whether the ASTRAL score was an independent predictor of outcome. The Kaplan-Meier product limit method was used to estimate the probability of 5-year survival for each ASTRAL score quartile. RESULTS: The area under the receiver operating characteristics curve of the score to predict 5-year unfavorable functional outcome was 0.89, 95% confidence interval 0.88 to 0.91. In multivariate Cox proportional hazards analysis, the ASTRAL score was independently associated with 5-year unfavorable functional outcome (hazard ratio, 1.09; 95% confidence interval, 1.08-1.10). The area under the receiver operating characteristics curve for the ASTRAL score's discriminatory power to predict 5-year mortality was 0.81 (95% confidence interval, 0.78-0.83). In multivariate analysis, the ASTRAL score was independently associated with 5-year mortality (hazard ratio, 1.09, 95% confidence interval, 1.08-1.10). During the 5-year follow-up, the probability of survival was significantly lower with increasing ASTRAL score quartiles (log-rank test <0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The ASTRAL score reliably predicts 5-year functional outcome and mortality in patients with acute ischemic stroke.

Pédiatrie. 3. Le score de McIsaac: une aide à l'indication des tests de diagnostic rapide dans tes angines à streptocoques A [Pediatrics. Using the McIsaac score for the indication of rapid diagnostic testing in children with streptococcal pharyngitis].

The McIsaac scoring system is a tool designed to predict the probability of streptococcal pharyngitis in children aged 3 to 17 years with a sore throat. Although it does not allow the physician to make the diagnosis of streptococcal pharyngitis, it enables to identify those children with a sore throat in whom rapid antigen detection tests have a good predictive value.

The role of the New Trauma and Injury Severity Score (NTRISS) for survival prediction

The objective of this study was to verify if replacing the Injury Severity Score (ISS) by the New Injury Severity Score (NISS) in the original Trauma and Injury Severity Score (TRISS) form would improve the survival rate estimation. This retrospective study was performed in a level I trauma center during one year. ROC curve was used to identify the best indicator (TRISS or NTRISS) for survival probability prediction. Participants were 533 victims, with a mean age of 38±16 years. There was predominance of motor vehicle accidents (61.9%). External injuries were more frequent (63.0%), followed by head/neck injuries (55.5%). Survival rate was 76.9%. There is predominance of ISS scores ranging from 9-15 (40.0%), and NISS scores ranging from 16-24 (25.5%). Survival probability equal to or greater than 75.0% was obtained for 83.4% of the victims according to TRISS, and for 78.4% according to NTRISS. The new version (NTRISS) is better than TRISS for survival prediction in trauma patients.

Comparison of the diagnostic performance of the original and modified Wells score in inpatients and outpatients with suspected deep vein thrombosis.

Introduction: The original and modified Wells score are widely used prediction rules for pre-test probability assessment of deep vein thrombosis (DVT). The objective of this study was to compare the predictive performance of both Wells scores in unselected patients with clinical suspicion of DVT.Methods: Consecutive inpatients and outpatients with a clinical suspicion of DVT were prospectively enrolled. Pre-test DVT probability (low/intermediate/high) was determined using both scores. Patients with a non-high probability based on the original Wells score underwent D-dimers measurement. Patients with D-dimers <500 mu g/L did not undergo further testing, and treatment was withheld. All others underwent complete lower limb compression ultrasound, and those diagnosed with DVT were anticoagulated. The primary study outcome was objectively confirmed symptomatic venous thromboembolism within 3 months of enrollment.Results: 298 patients with suspected DVT were included. Of these, 82 (27.5%) had DVT, and 46 of them were proximal. Compared to the modified score, the original Wells score classified a higher proportion of patients as low-risk (53 vs 48%; p<0.01) and a lower proportion as high-risk (17 vs 15%; p=0.02); the prevalence of proximal DVT in each category was similar with both scores (7-8% low, 16-19% intermediate, 36-37% high). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve regarding proximal DVT detection was similar for both scores, but they both performed poorly in predicting isolated distal DVT and DVT in inpatients.Conclusion: The study demonstrates that both Wells scores perform equally well in proximal DVT pre-test probability prediction. Neither score appears to be particularly useful in hospitalized patients and those with isolated distal DVT. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Prediction of 18-month survival in patients with primary myelodysplastic syndrome. A regression model and scoring system based on the combination of chromosome findings and the Bournemouth score.

The predictive potential of six selected factors was assessed in 72 patients with primary myelodysplastic syndrome using univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis of survival at 18 months. Factors were age (above median of 69 years), dysplastic features in the three myeloid bone marrow cell lineages, presence of chromosome defects, all metaphases abnormal, double or complex chromosome defects (C23), and a Bournemouth score of 2, 3, or 4 (B234). In the multivariate approach, B234 and C23 proved to be significantly associated with a reduction in the survival probability. The similarity of the regression coefficients associated with these two factors means that they have about the same weight. Consequently, the model was simplified by counting the number of factors (0, 1, or 2) present in each patient, thus generating a scoring system called the Lausanne-Bournemouth score (LB score). The LB score combines the well-recognized and easy-to-use Bournemouth score (B score) with the chromosome defect complexity, C23 constituting an additional indicator of patient outcome. The predicted risk of death within 18 months calculated from the model is as follows: 7.1% (confidence interval: 1.7-24.8) for patients with an LB score of 0, 60.1% (44.7-73.8) for an LB score of 1, and 96.8% (84.5-99.4) for an LB score of 2. The scoring system presented here has several interesting features. The LB score may improve the predictive value of the B score, as it is able to recognize two prognostic groups in the intermediate risk category of patients with B scores of 2 or 3. It has also the ability to identify two distinct prognostic subclasses among RAEB and possibly CMML patients. In addition to its above-described usefulness in the prognostic evaluation, the LB score may bring new insights into the understanding of evolution patterns in MDS. We used the combination of the B score and chromosome complexity to define four classes which may be considered four possible states of myelodysplasia and which describe two distinct evolutional pathways.

Assessing the Glaucoma Quality of Life-15 (GCL-15) Questionnaire, Goldmann Tonometry and Moorfields Motion Displacement Test in Glaucoma Case Finding

Purpose: To compare the performance Glaucoma Quality of Life-15 (GQL-15) Questionnaire, intraocular pressure measurement (IOP Goldmann tonometry) and a measure of visual field loss using Moorfields Motion Displacement Test (MDT) in detecting glaucomatous eyes from a self referred population. Methods: The GQL-15 has been suggested to correlate with visual disability and psychophysical measures of visual function in glaucoma patients. The Moorfields MDT is a multi location perimetry test with 32 white line stimuli presented on a grey background on a standard laptop computer. Each stimulus is displaced between computer frames to give the illusion of "apparent motion". Participants (N=312, 90% older than 45 years; 20.5% family history of glaucoma) self referred to an advertised World Glaucoma Day (March 2009) Jules Gonin Eye Hospital, Lausanne Switzerland. Participants underwent a clinical exam (IOP, slit lamp, angle and disc examination by a general ophthalmologist), 90% completed a GQL-15 questionnaire and over 50% completed a MDT test in both eyes. Those who were classified as abnormal on one or more of the following (IOP >21 mmHg/ GQL-15 score >20/ MDT score >2/ clinical exam) underwent a follow up clinical examination by a glaucoma specialist including imaging and threshold perimetry. After the second examination subjects were classified as "healthy"(H), "glaucoma suspect" (GS) (ocular hypertension and/or suspicious disc, angle closure with SD) or "glaucomatous" (G). Results: One hundred and ten subjects completed all 4 initial examinations; of these 69 were referred to complete the 2nd examination and were classified as; 8 G, 24 GS, and 37 H. MDT detected 7/8 G, and 7/24 GS, with false referral rate of 3.8%. IOP detected 2/8 G and 8/24 GS, with false referral rate of 8.9%. GQL-15 detected 4/8 G, 16/24 GS with a false referral rate of 42%. Conclusions: In this sample of participants attending a self referral glaucoma detection event, the MDT performed significantly better than the GQL-15 and IOP in discriminating glaucomatous patients from healthy subjects. Further studies are required to assess the potential of the MDT as a glaucoma screening tool.

A simple score for estimating ischemic heart disease in patients with non-traumatic chest pain in primary care

Background: Modelling epidemiological knowledge in validated clinical scores is a practical mean of integrating EBM to usual care. Existing scores about cardiovascular disease have been largely developed in emergency settings, but few in primary care. Such a toll is needed for general practitioners (GP) to evaluate the probability of ischemic heart disease (IHD) in patients with non-traumatic chest pain. Objective: To develop a predictive model to use as a clinical score for detecting IHD in patients with non-traumatic chest-pain in primary care. Methods: A post-hoc secondary analysis on data from an observational study including 672 patients with chest pain of which 85 had IHD diagnosed by their GP during the year following their inclusion. Best subset method was used to select 8 predictive variables from univariate analysis and fitted in a multivariate logistic regression model to define the score. Reliability of the model was assessed using split-group method. Results: Significant predictors were: age (0-3 points), gender (1 point), having at least one cardiovascular risks factor (hypertension, dyslipidemia, diabetes, smoking, family history of CVD; 3 points), personal history of cardiovascular disease (1 point), duration of chest pain from 1 to 60 minutes (2 points), substernal chest pain (1 point), pain increasing with exertion (1 point) and absence of tenderness at palpation (1 point). Area under the ROC curve for the score was of 0.95 (IC95% 0.93; 0.97). Patients were categorised in three groups, low risk of IHD (score under 6; n = 360), moderate risk of IHD (score from 6 to 8; n = 187) and high risk of IHD (score from 9-13; n = 125). Prevalence of IHD in each group was respectively of 0%, 6.7%, 58.5%. Reliability of the model seems satisfactory as the model developed from the derivation set predicted perfectly (p = 0.948) the number of patients in each group in the validation set. Conclusion: This clinical score based only on history and physical exams can be an important tool in the practice of the general physician for the prediction of ischemic heart disease in patients complaining of chest pain. The score below 6 points (in more than half of our population) can avoid demanding complementary exams for selected patients (ECG, laboratory tests) because of the very low risk of IHD. Score above 6 points needs investigation to detect or rule out IHD. Further external validation is required in ambulatory settings.

Defining risk thresholds for a 10-year probability of hip fracture model that combines clinical risk factors and quantitative ultrasound: results using the EPISEM cohort.

Using a large prospective cohort of over 12,000 women, we determined 2 thresholds (high risk and low risk of hip fracture) to use in a 10-yr hip fracture probability model that we had previously described, a model combining the heel stiffness index measured by quantitative ultrasound (QUS) and a set of easily determined clinical risk factors (CRFs). The model identified a higher percentage of women with fractures as high risk than a previously reported risk score that combined QUS and CRF. In addition, it categorized women in a way that was quite consistent with the categorization that occurred using dual X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) and the World Health Organization (WHO) classification system; the 2 methods identified similar percentages of women with and without fractures in each of their 3 categories, but the 2 identified only in part the same women. Nevertheless, combining our composite probability model with DXA in a case findings strategy will likely further improve the detection of women at high risk of fragility hip fracture. We conclude that the currently proposed model may be of some use as an alternative to the WHO classification criteria for osteoporosis, at least when access to DXA is limited.