Three Essays on Economic Development in the Natural Resources Sector

This thesis examines two ongoing development projects that received financial support from international development organizations, and an alternative mining tax proposed by the academia. Chapter 2 explores the impact of commoditization of coffee on its export price in Ethiopia. The first part of the chapter traces how the Ethiopian’s current coffee trade system and commoditization come to be. Using regression analysis, the second part tests and confirms the hypothesis that commoditization has led to a reduction in coffee export price. Chapter 3 conducts a cost-benefit analysis on a controversial, liquefied natural gas export project in Peru that sought to export one-third of the country’s proven natural gas reserves. While the country can receive royalty and corporate income tax in the short and medium term, these benefits are dwarfed by the future costs of paying for alternative energy after gas depletion. The conclusion is robust for a variety of future energy-price and energy-demand scenarios. Chapter 4 quantifies through simulation the economic distortions of two common mining taxes, the royalty and ad-valorem tax, vis-à-vis the resource rent tax. The latter is put forward as a better mining tax instrument on account of its non-distortionary nature. The rent tax, however, necessitates additional administrative burdens and induces tax-avoidance behavior, both leading to a net loss of tax revenue. By quantifying the distortions of royalty and the ad-valorem tax, one can establish the maximum loss that can be incurred by the rent tax. Simulation results indicate that the distortion of the ad-valorem tax is quite modest. If implemented, the rent tax is likely to result in a greater loss. While the subject matters may appear diverse, they are united by one theme. These initiatives were endorsed and supported by authorities and development agencies in the aim of furthering economic development and efficiency, but they are unlikely to fulfill the goal. Lessons for international development can be learnt from successful stories as well as from unsuccessful ones.

A Microdata Analysis Approach to Transport Infrastructure Maintenance

Maintenance of transport infrastructure assets is widely advocated as the key in minimizing current and future costs of the transportation network. While effective maintenance decisions are often a result of engineering skills and practical knowledge, efficient decisions must also account for the net result over an asset's life-cycle. One essential aspect in the long term perspective of transport infrastructure maintenance is to proactively estimate maintenance needs. In dealing with immediate maintenance actions, support tools that can prioritize potential maintenance candidates are important to obtain an efficient maintenance strategy. This dissertation consists of five individual research papers presenting a microdata analysis approach to transport infrastructure maintenance. Microdata analysis is a multidisciplinary field in which large quantities of data is collected, analyzed, and interpreted to improve decision-making. Increased access to transport infrastructure data enables a deeper understanding of causal effects and a possibility to make predictions of future outcomes. The microdata analysis approach covers the complete process from data collection to actual decisions and is therefore well suited for the task of improving efficiency in transport infrastructure maintenance. Statistical modeling was the selected analysis method in this dissertation and provided solutions to the different problems presented in each of the five papers. In Paper I, a time-to-event model was used to estimate remaining road pavement lifetimes in Sweden. In Paper II, an extension of the model in Paper I assessed the impact of latent variables on road lifetimes; displaying the sections in a road network that are weaker due to e.g. subsoil conditions or undetected heavy traffic. The study in Paper III incorporated a probabilistic parametric distribution as a representation of road lifetimes into an equation for the marginal cost of road wear. Differentiated road wear marginal costs for heavy and light vehicles are an important information basis for decisions regarding vehicle miles traveled (VMT) taxation policies. In Paper IV, a distribution based clustering method was used to distinguish between road segments that are deteriorating and road segments that have a stationary road condition. Within railway networks, temporary speed restrictions are often imposed because of maintenance and must be addressed in order to keep punctuality. The study in Paper V evaluated the empirical effect on running time of speed restrictions on a Norwegian railway line using a generalized linear mixed model.

Improved Road Design for Future Maintenance - Analysis of Road Barrier Repair Costs

The cost of a road construction over its service life is a function of the design, quality of construction, maintenance strategies and maintenance operations. Unfortunately, designers often neglect a very important aspect which is the possibility to perform future maintenance activities. The focus is mainly on other aspects such as investment costs, traffic safety, aesthetic appearance, regional development and environmental effects. This licentiate thesis is a part of a Ph.D. project entitled “Road Design for lower maintenance costs” that aims to examine how the life-cycle costs can be optimized by selection of appropriate geometrical designs for the roads and their components. The result is expected to give a basis for a new method used in the road planning and design process using life-cycle cost analysis with particular emphasis on road maintenance. The project started with a review of literature with the intention to study conditions causing increased needs for road maintenance, the efforts made by the road authorities to satisfy those needs and the improvement potential by consideration of maintenance aspects during planning and design. An investigation was carried out to identify the problems which obstruct due consideration of maintenance aspects during the road planning and design process. This investigation focused mainly on the road planning and design process at the Swedish Road Administration. However, the road planning and design process in Denmark, Finland and Norway were also roughly evaluated to gain a broader knowledge about the research subject. The investigation was carried out in two phases: data collection and data analysis. Data was collected by semi-structured interviews with expert actors involved in planning, design and maintenance and by a review of design-related documents. Data analyses were carried out using a method called “Change Analysis”. This investigation revealed a complex combination of problems which result in inadequate consideration of maintenance aspects. Several urgent needs for changes to eliminate these problems were identified. Another study was carried out to develop a model for calculation of the repair costs for damages of different road barrier types and to analyse how factors such as road type, speed limits, barrier types, barrier placement, type of road section, alignment and seasonal effects affect the barrier damages and the associated repair costs. This study was carried out using a method called the “Case Study Research Method”. Data was collected from 1087 barrier repairs in two regional offices of the Swedish Road Administration, the Central Region and the Western Region. A table was established for both regions containing the repair cost per vehicle kilometre for different combinations of barrier types, road types and speed limits. This table can be used by the designers in the calculation of the life-cycle costs for different road barrier types.

The nitrogen costs of photosynthesis in a diatom under current and future pCO2

With each cellular generation, oxygenic photoautotrophs must accumulate abundant protein complexes that mediate light capture, photosynthetic electron transport and carbon fixation. In addition to this net synthesis, oxygenic photoautotrophs must counter the light-dependent photoinactivation of Photosystem II (PSII), using metabolically expensive proteolysis, disassembly, resynthesis and re-assembly of protein subunits. We used growth rates, elemental analyses and protein quantitations to estimate the nitrogen (N) metabolism costs to both accumulate the photosynthetic system and to maintain PSII function in the diatom Thalassiosira pseudonana, growing at two pCO2 levels across a range of light levels. The photosynthetic system contains c. 15-25% of total cellular N. Under low growth light, N (re)cycling through PSII repair is only c. 1% of the cellular N assimilation rate. As growth light increases to inhibitory levels, N metabolite cycling through PSII repair increases to c. 14% of the cellular N assimilation rate. Cells growing under the assumed future 750 ppmv pCO2 show higher growth rates under optimal light, coinciding with a lowered N metabolic cost to maintain photosynthesis, but then suffer greater photoinhibition of growth under excess light, coincident with rising costs to maintain photosynthesis. We predict this quantitative trait response to light will vary across taxa.

Report on financial feasibility of proposed Puget Sound Bridge: capital costs, potential traffic, future revenues, and methods of financing. Prepared for the Washington Toll Bridge Authority and the Washington State Legislature Joint Fact-Finding Committee on Highways, Streets and Bridges.

Mode of access: Internet.

The Y2K Scare: Causes, costs and cures.

The worldwide scare over the 'Y2K bug result in the expenditure of hundreds of billions of dollars on Y2K compliance and conversion policies. Most of this can be seen, in retrospect, to have been unproductive or, at least, misdirected. In this paper, the technological and institutional factors leading to the adoption of these policies are considered, along with suggestions as to how such policy failures could be avoided in future.

The currency of case management: benefits and costs

Case management models evolved as the mental health care system shifted hospital to community settings. The research evidence underscores the efficacy of certain case management models under 'ideal' conditions; what is less clear, is how these models perform in day to day clinical practice. Moreover, the economic perspective adopted by most studies is relatively narrow thus limiting a proper understanding of the costs and benefits of such models. This paper reviews recent work in the field and highlights gaps in both method and application as a focus for future work. Curr Opin Psychiatry 12:195-199, (C) 1999 Lippincott Williams & Wilkins.

Demand response in future power systems management – a conceptual framework and simulation tool

Mestrado em Engenharia Electrotécnica – Sistemas Eléctricos de Energia

Design of future distribution grids

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia Electrotécnica e de Computadores

Environmental management problems, future generations and social decisions

The decisions of many individuals and social groups, taking according to well-defined objectives, are causing serious social and environmental problems, in spite of following the dictates of economic rationality. There are many examples of serious problems for which there are not yet appropriate solutions, such as management of scarce natural resources including aquifer water or the distribution of space among incompatible uses. In order to solve these problems, the paper first characterizes the resources and goods involved from an economic perspective. Then, for each case, the paper notes that there is a serious divergence between individual and collective interests and, where possible, it designs the procedure for solving the conflict of interests. With this procedure, the real opportunities for the application of economic theory are shown, and especially the theory on collective goods and externalities. The limitations of conventional economic analysis are shown and the opportunity to correct the shortfalls is examined. Many environmental problems, such as climate change, have an impact on different generations that do not participate in present decisions. The paper shows that for these cases, the solutions suggested by economic theory are not valid. Furthermore, conventional methods of economic valuation (which usually help decision-makers) are unable to account for the existence of different generations and tend to obviate long-term impacts. The paper analyzes how economic valuation methods could account for the costs and benefits enjoyed by present and future generations. The paper studies an appropriate consideration of preferences for future consumption and the incorporation of sustainability as a requirement in social decisions, which implies not only more efficiency but also a fairer distribution between generations than the one implied by conventional economic analysis.

Biological materials in colorectal surgery: current applications and potential for the future.

Biological materials are increasingly used in abdominal surgery for ventral, pelvic and perineal reconstructions, especially in contaminated fields. Future applications are multi-fold and include prevention and one-step closure of infected areas. This includes prevention of abdominal, parastomal and pelvic hernia, but could also include prevention of separation of multiple anastomoses, suture- or staple-lines. Further indications could be a containment of infected and/or inflammatory areas and protection of vital implants such as vascular grafts. Reinforcement patches of high-risk anastomoses or unresectable perforation sites are possibilities at least. Current applications are based mostly on case series and better data is urgently needed. Clinical benefits need to be assessed in prospective studies to provide reliable proof of efficacy with a sufficient follow-up. Only superior results compared with standard treatment will justify the higher costs of these materials. To date, the use of biological materials is not standard and applications should be limited to case-by-case decision.

How The 1996 Hotel Majestic agreement may explain a future PP/CiU relationship in Madrid

Some historians have argued that 1996 marked a ‘second transition’ for Spain because of the return to power of the political right in Madrid and that the relationship and eventual pact between the Partido Popular (PP) and Convergència i Unió (CiU) meant that the state could finally escape the ghosts of its Francoist past. For this research, face-to-face interviews were conducted with Catalan Members of Parliament who served under either José María Aznar or Jordi Pujol in Madrid or Barcelona. Drawing upon both interviews and other evidence, including the analysis of election results and the 1996 Hotel Majestic Agreement, the research seeks to provide a better understanding of the previous relationships between the PP and CiU and their leaders in order to understand what lessons might be learnt that would contribute to anticipating and explaining possible future negotiations between the two parties. This is attempted by first examining the potential costs and benefits of political pacts between centre (Madrid) and periphery (Barcelona). Secondly, due to many interviewees making reference to Salvador Espriu’s work La Pell de Brau, the three routes of Espriu’s Catalan nationalism are put into the context of the political pacts. Finally, the likelihood of future agreements between PP and CiU are hypothesized, not only how those agreements may (or may not) come about, but also, what might the result of those negotiations be. Ultimately, it is concluded that the benefits of the Hotel Majestic Agreement outweighed the costs, thus leaving the door open for future negotiations, even if some of those interviewed disagreed.

Paved Shoulders on Primary Highways in Iowa: An Analysis of Shoulder Surfacing Criteria, Costs, and Benefits, 2001

The value of providing paved shoulders adjacent to many higher volume roadways has been accepted in many states across the country. Iowa’s paved shoulder policy is considerably more conservative than neighboring states, particularly on rural four-lane and high-volume two-lane highways. The objectives of this research are to examine current design criteria for shoulders employed in Iowa and surrounding states, compare benefits and costs of alternative surface types and widths, and make recommendations based on this analysis for consideration in future design policies for primary highway in Iowa. The report finds that many safety and maintenance benefits would result from enhancing Iowa’s paved shoulder and rumble strip design practices for freeways, expressways, and Super 2 highway corridors. The benefits of paved shoulders include reduced numbers of certain crashes, higher capacity potentials, reduced maintenance, enhanced opportunities for other users such as bicyclists, and even possible increased longevity of pavements. Alternative paved shoulder policies and programming strategies are also offered, with detailed assessments of the benefits, costs, and budget impacts.

An Investigation of User Costs and Benefits of Winter Road Closures, June 2005

This project explores the user costs and benefits of winter road closures. Severe winter weather makes travel unsafe and dramatically increases crash rates. When conditions become unsafe due to winter weather, road closures should allow users to avoid crash costs and eliminate costs associated with rescuing stranded motorists. Therefore, the benefits of road closures are the avoided safety costs. The costs of road closures are the delays that are imposed on motorists and motor carriers who would have made the trip had the road not been closed. This project investigated the costs and benefits of road closures and found that evaluating the benefits and costs is not as simple as it appears. To better understand the costs and benefits of road closures, the project investigates the literature, conducts interviews with shippers and motor carriers, and conducts case studies of road closures to determine what actually occurred on roadways during closures. The project also estimates a statistical model that relates weather severity to crash rates. Although, the statistical model is intended to illustrate the possibility to quantitatively relate measurable and predictable weather conditions to the safety performance of a roadway. In the future, weather conditions such as snow fall intensity, visibility, etc., can be used to make objective measures of the safety performance of a roadway rather than relying on subjective evaluations of field staff. The review of the literature and the interviews clearly illustrate that not all delays (increased travel time) are valued the same. Expected delays (routine delays) are valued at the generalized costs (value of the driver’s time, fuel, insurance, wear and tear on the vehicle, etc.), but unexpected delays are valued much higher because they result in interruption of synchronous activities at the trip’s destination. To reduce the costs of delays resulting from road closures, public agencies should communicate as early as possible the likelihood of a road closure.