Drivers of technology substitution : successive generations of high tech products

Principal Topic High technology consumer products such as notebooks, digital cameras and DVD players are not introduced into a vacuum. Consumer experience with related earlier generation technologies, such as PCs, film cameras and VCRs, and the installed base of these products strongly impacts the market diffusion of the new generation products. Yet technology substitution has received only sparse attention in the diffusion of innovation literature. Research for consumer durables has been dominated by studies of (first purchase) adoption (c.f. Bass 1969) which do not explicitly consider the presence of an existing product/technology. More recently, considerable attention has also been given to replacement purchases (c.f. Kamakura and Balasubramanian 1987). Only a handful of papers explicitly deal with the diffusion of technology/product substitutes (e.g. Norton and Bass, 1987: Bass and Bass, 2004). They propose diffusion-type aggregate-level sales models that are used to forecast the overall sales for successive generations. Lacking household data, these aggregate models are unable to give insights into the decisions by individual households - whether to adopt generation II, and if so, when and why. This paper makes two contributions. It is the first large-scale empirical study that collects household data for successive generations of technologies in an effort to understand the drivers of adoption. Second, in comparision to traditional analysis that evaluates technology substitution as an ''adoption of innovation'' type process, we propose that from a consumer's perspective, technology substitution combines elements of both adoption (adopting the new generation technology) and replacement (replacing the generation I product with generation II). Based on this proposition, we develop and test a number of hypotheses. Methodology/Key Propositions In some cases, successive generations are clear ''substitutes'' for the earlier generation, in that they have almost identical functionality. For example, successive generations of PCs Pentium I to II to III or flat screen TV substituting for colour TV. More commonly, however, the new technology (generation II) is a ''partial substitute'' for existing technology (generation I). For example, digital cameras substitute for film-based cameras in the sense that they perform the same core function of taking photographs. They have some additional attributes of easier copying and sharing of images. However, the attribute of image quality is inferior. In cases of partial substitution, some consumers will purchase generation II products as substitutes for their generation I product, while other consumers will purchase generation II products as additional products to be used as well as their generation I product. We propose that substitute generation II purchases combine elements of both adoption and replacement, but additional generation II purchases are solely adoption-driven process. Extensive research on innovation adoption has consistently shown consumer innovativeness is the most important consumer characteristic that drives adoption timing (Goldsmith et al. 1995; Gielens and Steenkamp 2007). Hence, we expect consumer innovativeness also to influence both additional and substitute generation II purchases. Hypothesis 1a) More innovative households will make additional generation II purchases earlier. 1 b) More innovative households will make substitute generation II purchases earlier. 1 c) Consumer innovativeness will have a stronger impact on additional generation II purchases than on substitute generation II purchases. As outlined above, substitute generation II purchases act, in part like a replacement purchase for the generation I product. Prior research (Bayus 1991; Grewal et al 2004) identified product age as the most dominant factor influencing replacements. Hence, we hypothesise that: Hypothesis 2: Households with older generation I products will make substitute generation II purchases earlier. Our survey of 8,077 households investigates their adoption of two new generation products: notebooks as a technology change to PCs, and DVD players as a technology shift from VCRs. We employ Cox hazard modelling to study factors influencing the timing of a household's adoption of generation II products. We determine whether this is an additional or substitute purchase by asking whether the generation I product is still used. A separate hazard model is conducted for additional and substitute purchases. Consumer Innovativeness is measured as domain innovativeness adapted from the scales of Goldsmith and Hofacker (1991) and Flynn et al. (1996). The age of the generation I product is calculated based on the most recent household purchase of that product. Control variables include age, size and income of household, and age and education of primary decision-maker. Results and Implications Our preliminary results confirm both our hypotheses. Consumer innovativeness has a strong influence on both additional purchases (exp = 1.11) and substitute purchases (exp = 1.09). Exp is interpreted as the increased probability of purchase for an increase of 1.0 on a 7-point innovativeness scale. Also consistent with our hypotheses, the age of the generation I product has a dramatic influence for substitute purchases of VCR/DVD (exp = 2.92) and a strong influence for PCs/notebooks (exp = 1.30). Exp is interpreted as the increased probability of purchase for an increase of 10 years in the age of the generation I product. Yet, also as hypothesised, there was no influence on additional purchases. The results lead to two key implications. First, there is a clear distinction between additional and substitute purchases of generation II products, each with different drivers. Treating these as a single process will mask the true drivers of adoption. For substitute purchases, product age is a key driver. Hence, implications for marketers of high technology products can utilise data on generation I product age (e.g. from warranty or loyalty programs) to target customers who are more likely to make a purchase.

New insights into rebound effects : theory and empirical evidence

The main objective of the thesis is to seek insights into the theory, and provide empirical evidence of rebound effects. Rebound effects reduce the environmental benefits of environmental policies and household behaviour changes. In particular, win-win demand side measures, in the form of energy efficiency and household consumption pattern changes, are seen as ways for households and businesses to save money and the environment. However, these savings have environmental impacts when spent, which are known as rebound effects. This is an area that has been widely neglected by policy makers. This work extends the rebound effect literature in three important ways, (1) it incorporates the potential for variation of rebound effects with household income level, (2) it enables the isolation of direct and indirect effects for cases of energy efficient technology adoption, and examines the relationship between these two component effects, and (3) it expands the scope of rebound effect analysis to include government taxes and subsidies. MACROBUTTON HTMLDirect Using a case study approach it is found that the rebound effect from household consumption pattern changes targeted at electricity is between 5 and 10%. For consumption pattern changes with reduced vehicle fuel use, the rebound effect is in the order of 20 to 30%. Higher income households in general are found to have a lower total rebound effect; however the indirect effect becomes relatively more significant at higher household income levels. In the win-lose case of domestic photovoltaic electricity generation, it is demonstrated that negative rebound effects can occur, which can potentially amplify the environmental benefits of this action. The rebound effect from a carbon tax, which occurs due to the re-spending of raised revenues, was found to be in the range of 11-32%. Taxes and transfers between households of different income levels also have environmental implications. For example, a more progressive tax structure, with increased low income welfare payments is likely to increase greenhouse gas emissions. Subsidies aimed at encouraging environmentally friendly consumption habits are also subject to rebound effects, as they constitute a substitution of government expenditure for household expenditure. For policy makers, these findings point to the need to incorporate rebound effects in the environmental policy evaluation process.’

Statistical modeling to determine resonant frequency information present in combustion chamber pressure signals

A statistical modeling method to accurately determine combustion chamber resonance is proposed and demonstrated. This method utilises Markov-chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) through the use of the Metropolis-Hastings (MH) algorithm to yield a probability density function for the combustion chamber frequency and find the best estimate of the resonant frequency, along with uncertainty. The accurate determination of combustion chamber resonance is then used to investigate various engine phenomena, with appropriate uncertainty, for a range of engine cycles. It is shown that, when operating on various ethanol/diesel fuel combinations, a 20% substitution yields the least amount of inter-cycle variability, in relation to combustion chamber resonance.

The impact of sulphur content of diesel fuel on ultrafine particle formation

Early this year the Australian Department of Environment and Heritage commissioned a desktop literature review with a focus on ultrafine particles including analysis of health impacts of the particles as well as the impact of sulphur content of diesel fuel on ultrafine particle emission. This paper summarizes the findings of the report on the link between the sulphur content of diesel fuels and the number of ultrafine particles in diesel emissions. The literature search on this topic resulted in over 150 publications. The majority of these publications, although investigating different aspects of the influence of fuel sulphur level on diesel vehicle emissions, were not directly concerned with ultrafine particle emissions. A specific focus of the paper is on: ----- ----- summary of state of knowledge established by the review, and ----- ----- summary of recommendations on the research priorities for Australia to address the information gaps for this issue, and on the appropriate management responses.

Gaseous and particle emissions from an ethanol fumigated compression ignition engine

A 4-cylinder Ford 2701C test engine was used in this study to explore the impact of ethanol fumigation on gaseous and particle emission concentrations. The fumigation technique delivered vaporised ethanol into the intake manifold of the engine, using an injector, a pump and pressure regulator, a heat exchanger for vaporising ethanol and a separate fuel tank and lines. Gaseous (Nitric oxide (NO), Carbon monoxide (CO) and hydrocarbons (HC)) and particulate emissions (particle mass (PM2.5) and particle number) testing was conducted at intermediate speed (1700 rpm) using 4 load settings with ethanol substitution percentages ranging from 10-40 % (by energy). With ethanol fumigation, NO and PM2.5 emissions were reduced, whereas CO and HC emissions increased considerably and particle number emissions increased at most test settings. It was found that ethanol fumigation reduced the excess air factor for the engine and this led to increased emissions of CO and HC, but decreased emissions of NO. PM2.5 emissions were reduced with ethanol fumigation, as ethanol has a very low “sooting” tendency. This is due to the higher hydrogen-to-carbon ratio of this fuel, and also because ethanol does not contain aromatics, both of which are known soot precursors. The use of a diesel oxidation catalyst (as an after-treatment device) is recommended to achieve a reduction in the four pollutants that are currently regulated for compression ignition engines. The increase in particle number emissions with ethanol fumigation was due to the formation of volatile (organic) particles; consequently, using a diesel oxidation catalyst will also assist in reducing particle number emissions.

A comparative study of the number and mass of fine particles emitted with diesel fuel and marine gas oil (MGO)

The current investigation reports on diesel particulate matter emissions, with special interest in fine particles from the combustion of two base fuels. The base fuels selected were diesel fuel and marine gas oil (MGO). The experiments were conducted with a four-stroke, six-cylinder, direct injection diesel engine. The results showed that the fine particle number emissions measured by both SMPS and ELPI were higher with MGO compared to diesel fuel. It was observed that the fine particle number emissions with the two base fuels were quantitatively different but qualitatively similar. The gravimetric (mass basis) measurement also showed higher total particulate matter (TPM) emissions with the MGO. The smoke emissions, which were part of TPM, were also higher for the MGO. No significant changes in the mass flow rate of fuel and the brake-specific fuel consumption (BSFC) were observed between the two base fuels.

Diesel knock combustion and its detection using acoustic emission

This paper presents an experimental investigation into the detection of excessive Diesel knock using acoustic emission signals. Three different dual-fuel Diesel engine operating regimes were induced into a compression ignition (Diesel) engine operating on both straight Diesel fuel and two different mixtures of fumigated ethanol and Diesel. The experimentally induced engine operating regimes were; normal, or Diesel only operation, acceptable dual-fuel operation and dual-fuel operation with excessive Diesel knock. During the excessive Diesel knock operating regime, high rates of ethanol substitution induced potentially damaging levels of Diesel knock. Acoustic emission data was captured along with cylinder pressure, crank-angle encoder, and top-dead centre signals for the different engine operating regimes. Using these signals, it was found that acoustic emission signals clearly distinguished between the two acceptable operating regimes and the operating regime experiencing excessive Diesel knock. It was also found that acoustic emission sensor position is critical. The acoustic emission sensor positioned on the block of the engine clearly related information concerning the level of Diesel knock occurring in the engine whist the sensor positioned on the head of the engine gave no indication concerning Diesel knock severity levels.

Pyrolysis decomposition of mahogony seeds (Swietenia macrophylla) for alternative fuel oil

A fixed bed pyrolysis has been designed and fabricated for obtaining liquid fuel from Mahogany seeds. The major components of the system are fixed bed pyrolysis reactor, liquid condenser and liquid collectors. The Mahogany seed in particle form is pyrolysed in an externally heated 10 cm diameter and 36 cm high fixed bed reactor with nitrogen as the carrier gas. The reactor is heated by means of a biomass source cylindrical heater from 450oC to 600oC. The products are oil, char and gas. The reactor bed temperature, running time and feed particle size are considered as process parameters. A maximum liquid yield of 54wt% of biomass feed is obtained with particle size of 1.18 mm at a reactor bed temperature of 5500C with a running time of 90 minutes. The oil is found to possess favorable flash point and reasonable density and viscosity. The higher calorific value is found to be 39.9 MJ/kg which is higher than other biomass derived pyrolysis oils.

Production of liquid fuel and activated carbon from mahogany seed by using pyrolysis technology

The renovation of biomass waste in the form of Mahogany seed waste into bio-fuel as well as activated carbon by fixed bed pyrolysis reactor has been taken into consideration in this study. The mahogany seed in particle form is pyrolyzed in an enormously heated fixed bed reactor with nitrogen as the carrier gas. The reactor is heated from 4000C to 6000C using a external heater in which rice husk and charcoal are used as the heater biomass fuel. Reactor bed temperature, running time and feed particle size have been varied to get the optimum operating conditions of the system. The parameters are found to influence the product yields to a large extent. A maximum liquid and char yield are 49 wt. % and 35 wt. % respectively obtained at a reactor bed temperature 5000C when the running time is 90 minutes. Acquired pyrolyzed oil at these optimal process conditions were analyzed for some of their properties as an alternative fuel. The oil possesses comparable flame temperature, favorable flash point and reasonable viscosity along with somewhat higher density. The kinematic viscosity of the derived fuel is 3.8 cSt and density is 1525 kg/m3. The higher calorific value is found 32.4 MJ/kg which is significantly higher than other biomass derived fuel. Moderate adsorption capacity of the prepared activated carbon in case of methyl blue & tea water was also revealed.

Experimental observations of rapid maize streak virus evolution reveal a strand-specific nucleotide substitution bias

Background. Recent reports have indicated that single-stranded DNA (ssDNA) viruses in the taxonomic families Geminiviridae, Parvoviridae and Anellovirus may be evolving at rates of ∼10-4 substitutions per site per year (subs/site/year). These evolution rates are similar to those of RNA viruses and are surprisingly high given that ssDNA virus replication involves host DNA polymerases with fidelities approximately 10 000 times greater than those of error-prone viral RNA polymerases. Although high ssDNA virus evolution rates were first suggested in evolution experiments involving the geminivirus maize streak virus (MSV), the evolution rate of this virus has never been accurately measured. Also, questions regarding both the mechanistic basis and adaptive value of high geminivirus mutation rates remain unanswered. Results. We determined the short-term evolution rate of MSV using full genome analysis of virus populations initiated from cloned genomes. Three wild type viruses and three defective artificial chimaeric viruses were maintained in planta for up to five years and displayed evolution rates of between 7.4 × 10-4 and 7.9 × 10-4 subs/site/year. Conclusion. These MSV evolution rates are within the ranges observed for other ssDNA viruses and RNA viruses. Although no obvious evidence of positive selection was detected, the uneven distribution of mutations within the defective virus genomes suggests that some of the changes may have been adaptive. We also observed inter-strand nucleotide substitution imbalances that are consistent with a recent proposal that high mutation rates in geminiviruses (and possibly ssDNA viruses in general) may be due to mutagenic processes acting specifically on ssDNA molecules. © 2008 Walt et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.