A reliable risk score for stage IV esophagogastric cancer

BACKGROUND The role of surgery for patients with metastatic esophagogastric adenocarcinoma (EGC) is not defined. The purpose of this study was to define selection criteria for patients who may benefit from resection following systemic chemotherapy. METHODS From 1987 to 2007, 160 patients presenting with synchronous metastatic EGC (cT3/4 cNany cM0/1 finally pM1) were treated with chemotherapy followed by resection of the primary tumor and metastases. Clinical and histopathological data, site and number of metastases were analyzed. A prognostic score was established and validated in a second cohort from another academic center (n = 32). RESULTS The median survival (MS) in cohort 1 was 13.6 months. Significant prognostic factors were grading (p = 0.046), ypT- (p = 0.001), ypN- (p = 0.011) and R-category (p = 0.015), lymphangiosis (p = 0.021), clinical (p = 0.004) and histopathological response (p = 0.006), but not localization or number of metastases. The addition of grading (G1/2:0 points; G3/4:1 points), clinical response (responder: 0; nonresponder: 1) and R-category (complete:0; R1:1; R2:2) defines two groups of patients with significantly different survival (p = 0.001) [low risk group (Score 0/1), n = 22: MS 35.3 months, 3-year-survival 47.6%); high risk group (Score 2/3/4) n = 126: MS 12.0 months, 3-year-survival 14.2%]. The score showed a strong trend in the validation cohort (p = 0.063) [low risk group (MS not reached, 3-year-survival 57.1%); high risk group (MS 19.9 months, 3-year-survival 6.7%)]. CONCLUSION We observed long-term survival after resection of metastatic EGC. A simple clinical score may help to identify a subgroup of patients with a high chance of benefit from resection. However, the accurate estimation of achieving a complete resection, which is an integral element of the score, remains challenging.

Multicentre validation of the Geneva Risk Score for hospitalised medical patients at risk of venous thromboembolism. Explicit ASsessment of Thromboembolic RIsk and Prophylaxis for Medical PATients in SwitzErland (ESTIMATE).

There is a need to validate risk assessment tools for hospitalised medical patients at risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE). We investigated whether a predefined cut-off of the Geneva Risk Score, as compared to the Padua Prediction Score, accurately distinguishes low-risk from high-risk patients regardless of the use of thromboprophylaxis. In the multicentre, prospective Explicit ASsessment of Thromboembolic RIsk and Prophylaxis for Medical PATients in SwitzErland (ESTIMATE) cohort study, 1,478 hospitalised medical patients were enrolled of whom 637 (43%) did not receive thromboprophylaxis. The primary endpoint was symptomatic VTE or VTE-related death at 90 days. The study is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01277536. According to the Geneva Risk Score, the cumulative rate of the primary endpoint was 3.2% (95% confidence interval [CI] 2.2-4.6%) in 962 high-risk vs 0.6% (95% CI 0.2-1.9%) in 516 low-risk patients (p=0.002); among patients without prophylaxis, this rate was 3.5% vs 0.8% (p=0.029), respectively. In comparison, the Padua Prediction Score yielded a cumulative rate of the primary endpoint of 3.5% (95% CI 2.3-5.3%) in 714 high-risk vs 1.1% (95% CI 0.6-2.3%) in 764 low-risk patients (p=0.002); among patients without prophylaxis, this rate was 3.2% vs 1.5% (p=0.130), respectively. Negative likelihood ratio was 0.28 (95% CI 0.10-0.83) for the Geneva Risk Score and 0.51 (95% CI 0.28-0.93) for the Padua Prediction Score. In conclusion, among hospitalised medical patients, the Geneva Risk Score predicted VTE and VTE-related mortality and compared favourably with the Padua Prediction Score, particularly for its accuracy to identify low-risk patients who do not require thromboprophylaxis.

Metabolic risk score indexes validation in overweight healthy people

The constellation of adverse cardiovascular disease (CVD) and metabolic risk factors, including elevated abdominal obesity, blood pressure (BP), glucose, and triglycerides (TG) and lowered high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (HDL-C), has been termed the metabolic syndrome (MetSyn) [1]. A number of different definitions have been developed by the World Health Organization (WHO) [2], the National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel III (ATP III) [3], the European Group for the Study of Insulin Resistance (EGIR) [4] and, most recently, the International Diabetes Federation (IDF) [5]. Since there is no universal definition of the Metabolic Syndrome, several authors have derived different risk scores to represent the clustering of its components [6-11].

Statin use in rheumatoid arthritis in relation to actual cardiovascular risk:evidence for substantial undertreatment of lipid-associated cardiovascular risk?

Background Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is partially attributed to traditional cardiovascular risk factors, which can be identified and managed based on risk stratification algorithms (Framingham Risk Score, National Cholesterol Education Program, Systematic Cardiovascular Risk Evaluation and Reynolds Risk Score). We aimed to (a) identify the proportion of at risk patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) requiring statin therapy identified by conventional risk calculators, and (b) assess whether patients at risk were receiving statins. Methods Patients at high CVD risk (excluding patients with established CVD or diabetes) were identified from a cohort of 400 well characterised patients with RA, by applying risk calculators with or without a ×1.5 multiplier in specific patient subgroups. Actual statin use versus numbers eligible for statins was also calculated. Results The percentage of patients identified as being at risk ranged significantly depending on the method, from 1.6% (for 20% threshold global CVD risk) to 15.5% (for CVD and cerebrovascular morbidity and mortality) to 21.8% (for 10% global CVD risk) and 25.9% (for 5% CVD mortality), with the majority of them (58.1% to 94.8%) not receiving statins. The application of a 1.5 multiplier identified 17% to 78% more at risk patients. Conclusions Depending on the risk stratification method, 2% to 26% of patients with RA without CVD have sufficiently high risk to require statin therapy, yet most of them remain untreated. To address this issue, we would recommend annual systematic screening using the nationally applicable risk calculator, combined with regular audit of whether treatment targets have been achieved.

Thrombolysis in myocardial infarction risk score in an observation unit setting.

OBJECTIVE: The Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) score is a validated tool for risk stratification of acute coronary syndrome. We hypothesized that the TIMI risk score would be able to risk stratify patients in observation unit for acute coronary syndrome. METHODS: STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study of consecutive adult patients placed in an urban academic hospital emergency department observation unit with an average annual census of 65,000 between 2004 and 2007. Exclusion criteria included elevated initial cardiac biomarkers, ST segment changes on ECG, unstable vital signs, or unstable arrhythmias. A composite of significant coronary artery disease (CAD) indicators, including diagnosis of myocardial infarction, percutaneous coronary intervention, coronary artery bypass surgery, or death within 30 days and 1 year, were abstracted via chart review and financial record query. The entire cohort was stratified by TIMI risk scores (0-7) and composite event rates with 95% confidence interval were calculated. RESULTS: In total 2228 patients were analyzed. Average age was 54.5 years, 42.0% were male. The overall median TIMI risk score was 1. Eighty (3.6%) patients had 30-day and 119 (5.3%) had 1-year CAD indicators. There was a trend toward increasing rate of composite CAD indicators at 30 days and 1 year with increasing TIMI score, ranging from a 1.2% event rate at 30 days and 1.9% at 1 year for TIMI score of 0 and 12.5% at 30 days and 21.4% at 1 year for TIMI ≥ 4. CONCLUSIONS: In an observation unit cohort, the TIMI risk score is able to risk stratify patients into low-, moderate-, and high-risk groups.

The need for a marker predicting benefit following cardiovascular disease risk reduction treatment

Developing a robust method to study characteristics of vascular flow using ultrasound may be useful to assess endothelial function and vasodilatation. There are four stages in this proposal. 1.The first stage is to standardise and validate the methodology to enable computational risk flow data and other flow characteristics to be used clinically. (Current Study). Further development of fluid modelling methods will enable particulate haemodynamics to be investigated, and incorporate detailed endothelial structure together with cellular pathways. 2. This should be followed up by studies in different patient groups investigating the association between the derived values and estimated risk (using other methods such as Framingham risk score). 3. Then, associated with underlying cardiovascular risk, prospective studies would be made to establish whether computational flow dynamic data can predict outcome. If successful it could prove to be a very useful marker of benefit following treatment in a clinical setting.

Cardiovascular disease is increased prior to onset of rheumatoid arthritis but not osteoarthritis: The population-based Nord-Trøndelag health study (HUNT)

Introduction: Patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) have increased risk of cardiovascular (CV) events. We sought to test the hypothesis that due to increased inflammation, CV disease and risk factors are associated with increased risk of future RA development. Methods: The population-based Nord-Trøndelag health surveys (HUNT) were conducted among the entire adult population of Nord-Trøndelag, Norway. All inhabitants 20 years or older were invited, and information was collected through comprehensive questionnaires, a clinical examination, and blood samples. In a cohort design, data from HUNT2 (1995-1997, baseline) and HUNT3 (2006-2008, follow-up) were obtained to study participants with RA (n = 786) or osteoarthritis (n = 3,586) at HUNT3 alone, in comparison with individuals without RA or osteoarthritis at both times (n = 33,567). Results: Female gender, age, smoking, body mass index, and history of previous CV disease were associated with self-reported incident RA (previous CV disease: odds ratio 1.52 (95% confidence interval 1.11-2.07). The findings regarding previous CV disease were confirmed in sensitivity analyses excluding participants with psoriasis (odds ratio (OR) 1.70 (1.23-2.36)) or restricting the analysis to cases with a hospital diagnosis of RA (OR 1.90 (1.10-3.27)) or carriers of the shared epitope (OR 1.76 (1.13-2.74)). History of previous CV disease was not associated with increased risk of osteoarthritis (OR 1.04 (0.86-1.27)). Conclusion: A history of previous CV disease was associated with increased risk of incident RA but not osteoarthritis.

Correlação da resposta clínica à vardenafila em dois regimes terapêuticos com parâmetros vasculares e escore de risco cardiovascular em hipertensos com disfunção erétil vasculogênica

A disfunção erétil (DE) tem alta prevalência entre hipertensos e tem sido considerada marcador precoce de risco cardiovascular. A presença e gravidade da DE bem como a resposta clínica aos inibidores da fosfodiesterase tipo 5 (PDE5) parecem depender da biodisponibilidade do óxido nítrico (NO) endotelial e da extensão da doença aterosclerótica. O objetivo deste estudo foi avaliar a resposta clínica da vardenafila usada em dois regimes terapêuticos em hipertensos com DE vasculogênica e sem doença cardiovascular maior, correlacionando a gravidade da DE e a eficácia da vardenafila com dados antropométricos, laboratoriais, escore de risco cardiovascular e parâmetros vasculares funcionais e estruturais. A resposta clínica à vardenafila nos dois regimes foi avaliada conforme o percentual de respostas positivas à questão 3 do Perfil do Encontro Sexual (PES3). Os parâmetros vasculares considerados foram a espessura médio-intimal (EMI) da carótida comum, a dilatação mediada pelo fluxo (DMF) da artéria braquial e a dilatação nitrato-mediada (DNM). Foram incluídos 100 homens hipertensos com idade entre 50 e 70 anos, sendo 74 portadores de DE vasculogênica e 26 com função erétil normal que serviram de grupo controle. Nos pacientes com DE, o índice de massa corporal, relação cintura-quadril, EMI da carótida, níveis séricos de triglicerídeos, colesterol total e LDL foram significativamente maiores que no grupo controle. Após o uso de vardenafila on demand (fase 1), os pacientes com mais de 50% de respostas positivas ao PES3 ou 50% de respostas afirmativas e um incremento de 6 pontos ou mais em relação ao Índice Internacional de Função Erétil (IIEF-FE) basal e/ou resposta positiva a Questão de Avaliação Global (QAG), foram considerados respondedores. O escore do IIEF-FE basal se correlacionou negativamente com a EMI da carótida (r=-0,48, P<0,001) e com o escore de Framingham (r= -0,41, P<0,001) no grupo com DE. Houve forte correlação positiva entre a resposta clínica à vardenafila com a DMF (r= 0,70, P<0,001), que não se observou entre o sub-grupo de diabéticos. Os 35 pacientes considerados não-respondedores na fase 1 foram randomizados e, em desenho duplo-cego, receberam vardenafila ou placebo diariamente durante cinco semanas, podendo usar 10 mg de vardenafila uma hora antes da atividade sexual (fase2). Houve resposta clínica positiva em 38,8% dos que receberam a vardenafila na fase 2 e esta resposta se correlacionou com a frequência sexual (r= 0,68, P<0,01) e com o escore de Framingham (r= -0,65, P<0,01), com a EMI da carótida (r= -0,61, P=0,01) e com o LDL-colesterol (r= -0,64, P<0,01). A vardenafila foi bem tolerada em ambos os regimes terapêuticos. Concluímos que nessa amostra de hipertensos, a gravidade da DE foi relacionada a parâmetros vasculares estruturais (EMI), enquanto a resposta clínica à vardenafila on demand foi mais diretamente dependente da função vascular momentânea (DMF). Houve benefício na utilização de vardenafila diariamente com o objetivo de resgatar a eficácia do inibidor quanto à melhora do desempenho sexual. A falta de eficácia clínica ao inibidor da PDE5 em ambos os regimes terapêuticos pode servir como marcador clínico que identifica homens hipertensos com um risco cardiovascular aumentado.

Estudo de prevalência de disfunção tireoidiana em pacientes com diabetes mellitus acompanhados no ambulatório de diabetes do Hospital Universitário Pedro Ernesto

O diabetes mellitus(DM) e as disfunções tireoidianas(DT) são as duas desordens endocrinológicas mais comuns na prática clínica. A DT não reconhecida pode interferir no controle metabólico e adicionar mais risco a um cenário predisponente à doença cardiovascular. O objetivo deste estudo foi avaliar a prevalência da DT em pacientes com diabetes mellitus tipo 1 e tipo 2 (DM1 e DM2) e avaliar o risco cardiovascular em pacientes com DM2 com e sem DT utilizando parâmetros clínicos e laboratoriais. Trata-se de um estudo observacional de corte transversal. Foram avaliados 304 pacientes com DM2 e 82 pacientes com DM1. Os pacientes foram submetidos a um inquérito clínico-demográfico e avaliação laboratorial para determinação do perfil lipídico, glicídico e da função tireoidiana. Os pacientes com DM2 tiveram seus escores de risco cardiovascular em 10 anos determinados pelas equações de Framingham e do UKPDS risk engine. A frequência de disfunção tireoidiana entre os 386 pacientes foi de 14,7%, sendo de 13% nos que não possuíam disfunção prévia. A disfunção mais frequente encontrada foi de hipotireoidismo subclínico, com 13% no DM1 e de 12% no DM2. A prevalência de anticorpos anti-tireoperoxidase (TPO) positivos foi de 10,8%, sendo de14,6% em pacientes com DM1.Foram diagnosticados 44 (11,2%) novos casos de disfunção tireoidiana em pacientes que negavam ou desconheciam terem DT prévia.Destes novos casos, 12,8% em DM1 e 13,1% em DM2.Dos 49 pacientes com DT prévia, 50% dos DM1e 76% dos DM2 estavam compensados. Não foi observada diferença entre as médias do escore de risco de Framingham entre os pacientes DM2 com eutireoidismo e com hipotireoidismo subclínico. Observou-se uma associação entre o hipotireoidismo subclínico e risco cardiovascular nos pacientes com DM2 demonstrado pela diferença estatisticamente significativa entre as médias do escore UKPDS para doença coronariana não-fatal e fatal, acidente vascular cerebral fatal entre os dois grupos (p=0,007; 0,005;0,027 respectivamente). As demais funções tireodianas (hipotireoidismo clínico, hipertireoidismo clínico e subclínico) encontradas não foram analisadas devido ao pequeno número de pacientes em cada grupo.Concluímos que o rastreio da doença tireoidiana entre os pacientes com diabetes mellitus deve ser realizado rotineiramente considerando-se a prevalência de novos casos de DT diagnosticados e o fato de que os pacientes com DM2 e com hipotireoidismo subclínico avaliados possuírem um risco cardiovascular maior. Todavia, concluímos que estudos prospectivos e com maior número de pacientes são necessários para o esclarecimento do impacto da doença tireoidiana no risco cardiovascular do paciente com DM.

Association of major and minor ECG abnormalities with coronary heart disease events.

CONTEXT: In populations of older adults, prediction of coronary heart disease (CHD) events through traditional risk factors is less accurate than in middle-aged adults. Electrocardiographic (ECG) abnormalities are common in older adults and might be of value for CHD prediction. OBJECTIVE: To determine whether baseline ECG abnormalities or development of new and persistent ECG abnormalities are associated with increased CHD events. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: A population-based study of 2192 white and black older adults aged 70 to 79 years from the Health, Aging, and Body Composition Study (Health ABC Study) without known cardiovascular disease. Adjudicated CHD events were collected over 8 years between 1997-1998 and 2006-2007. Baseline and 4-year ECG abnormalities were classified according to the Minnesota Code as major and minor. Using Cox proportional hazards regression models, the addition of ECG abnormalities to traditional risk factors were examined to predict CHD events. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Adjudicated CHD events (acute myocardial infarction [MI], CHD death, and hospitalization for angina or coronary revascularization). RESULTS: At baseline, 276 participants (13%) had minor and 506 (23%) had major ECG abnormalities. During follow-up, 351 participants had CHD events (96 CHD deaths, 101 acute MIs, and 154 hospitalizations for angina or coronary revascularizations). Both baseline minor and major ECG abnormalities were associated with an increased risk of CHD after adjustment for traditional risk factors (17.2 per 1000 person-years among those with no abnormalities; 29.3 per 1000 person-years; hazard ratio [HR], 1.35; 95% CI, 1.02-1.81; for minor abnormalities; and 31.6 per 1000 person-years; HR, 1.51; 95% CI, 1.20-1.90; for major abnormalities). When ECG abnormalities were added to a model containing traditional risk factors alone, 13.6% of intermediate-risk participants with both major and minor ECG abnormalities were correctly reclassified (overall net reclassification improvement [NRI], 7.4%; 95% CI, 3.1%-19.0%; integrated discrimination improvement, 0.99%; 95% CI, 0.32%-2.15%). After 4 years, 208 participants had new and 416 had persistent abnormalities. Both new and persistent ECG abnormalities were associated with an increased risk of subsequent CHD events (HR, 2.01; 95% CI, 1.33-3.02; and HR, 1.66; 95% CI, 1.18-2.34; respectively). When added to the Framingham Risk Score, the NRI was not significant (5.7%; 95% CI, -0.4% to 11.8%). CONCLUSIONS: Major and minor ECG abnormalities among older adults were associated with an increased risk of CHD events. Depending on the model, adding ECG abnormalities was associated with improved risk prediction beyond traditional risk factors.

Évolution du risque cardiométabolique sur une période de quatre ans : étude chez des adultes béninois (Afrique de l’Ouest)

Les objectifs de l’étude de l’évolution du risque cardiométabolique (RCM) sur une période de quatre ans (2006-2010) chez des adultes béninois consistaient à: • Examiner les relations entre l’obésité abdominale selon les critères de la Fédération Internationale du Diabète (IFD) ou l’insulino-résistance mesurée par le Homeostasis Model Assessment (HOMA) et l’évolution des autres facteurs de RCM, • Examiner les liens entre les habitudes alimentaires, l’activité physique et les conditions socio-économiques et l’évolution du RCM évalué conjointement par le score de risque de maladies cardiovasculaires de Framingham (FRS) et le syndrome métabolique (SMet). Les hypothèses de recherche étaient: • L’obésité abdominale telle que définie par les critères de l’IDF est faiblement associée à une évolution défavorable des autres facteurs de RCM, alors que l’insulino-résistance mesurée par le HOMA lui est fortement associée; • Un niveau socioéconomique moyen, un cadre de vie peu urbanisé (rural ou semi-urbain), de meilleures habitudes alimentaires (score élevé de consommation d’aliments protecteurs contre le RCM) et l’activité physique contribuent à une évolution plus favorable du RCM. L’étude a inclus 541 sujets âgés de 25 à 60 ans, apparemment en bonne santé, aléatoirement sélectionnés dans la plus grande ville (n = 200), une petite ville (n = 171) et sa périphérie rurale (n = 170). Après les études de base, les sujets ont été suivis après deux et quatre ans. Les apports alimentaires et l’activité physique ont été cernés par deux ou trois rappels de 24 heures dans les études de base puis par des questionnaires de fréquence simplifiés lors des suivis. Les données sur les conditions socioéconomiques, la consommation d’alcool et le tabagisme ont été recueillies par questionnaire. Des mesures anthropométriques et la tension artérielle ont été prises. La glycémie à jeun, l’insulinémie et les lipides sanguins ont été mesurés. Un score de fréquence de consommation d’« aliments sentinelles » a été développé et utilisé. Un total de 416 sujets ont participé au dernier suivi. La prévalence initiale du SMet et du FRS≥10% était de 8,7% et 7,2%, respectivement. L’incidence du SMet et d’un FRS≥10% sur quatre ans était de 8,2% et 5%, respectivement. Le RCM s’était détérioré chez 21% des sujets. L’obésité abdominale définie par les valeurs seuils de tour de taille de l’IDF était associée à un risque plus élevé d’insulino-résistance: risque relatif (RR) = 5,7 (IC 95% : 2,8-11,5); d’un ratio cholestérol total/HDL-Cholestérol élevé: RR = 3,4 (IC 95% : 1,5-7,3); mais elle n’était pas associée à un risque significativement accru de tension artérielle élevée ou de triglycérides élevés. Les valeurs seuils de tour de taille optimales pour l’identification des sujets accusant au moins un facteur de risque du SMet étaient de 90 cm chez les femmes et de 80 cm chez les hommes. L’insulino-résistance mesurée par le HOMA était associée à un risque élevé d’hyperglycémie: RR = 5,7 (IC 95% : 2,8-11,5). En revanche, l’insulino-résistance n’était pas associée à un risque significatif de tension artérielle élevée et de triglycérides élevés. La combinaison de SMet et du FRS pour l’évaluation du RCM identifiait davantage de sujets à risque que l’utilisation de l’un ou l’autre outil isolément. Le risque de détérioration du profil de RCM était associé à un faible score de consommation des «aliments sentinelles» qui reflètent le caractère protecteur de l’alimentation (viande rouge, volaille, lait, œufs et légumes): RR = 5,6 (IC 95%: 1,9-16,1); et à l’inactivité physique: RR = 6,3 (IC 95%: 3,0-13,4). Les sujets de niveau socioéconomique faible et moyen, et ceux du milieu rural et semi-urbain avaient un moindre risque d’aggravation du RCM. L’étude a montré que les relations entre les facteurs de RCM présentaient des particularités chez les adultes béninois par rapport aux Caucasiens et a souligné le besoin de reconsidérer les composantes du SMet ainsi que leurs valeurs seuils pour les Africains sub-sahariens. La détérioration rapide du RCM nécessité des mesures préventives basées sur la promotion d’un mode de vie plus actif associé à de meilleures habitudes alimentaires.