Patologia óssea do insuficiente renal crónico: desafio clínico-biológico ; Caracterização da osteodistrofia renal e efeitos da biocompatibilidade de membranas de hemodiálise, na remodelação óssea

Resumo: Os resultados das nossas investigações, apresentadas ao longo desta dissertação,contribuíram para a otimização do diagnóstico invasivo e não invasivo da osteodistrofia renal e permitiram evidenciar a relevância, para a expressão clínica e histológica da ODR, de algumas articularidades específicas da população hemodialisada, nomeadamente: a utilização de membranas de hemodiálise mais biocompatíveis e com elevada permeabilidade, o recurso a técnicas de hemodiafiltração com otimização da capacidade convectiva, as limitações dos marcadores bioquímicos de remodelação óssea ou a insuficiência / deficiência em vitamina D nativa (bem como os resultados da suplementação com esta vitamina). Testámos, pela primeira vez em doentes hemodialisados, novos marcadores da formação e reabsorção óssea, que validámos mediante a comparação com os resultados da histomorfometria óssea. No seu conjunto, e de forma integrada, as nossas investigações permitiram-nos: - Evidenciar a diminuição da expressão do recetor da PTH/PTHrP na cartilagem de crescimento, num modelo animal de IRC, o que explica, pelo menos em parte, o atraso de crescimento observado nesta patologia, bem como a diminuição da resposta à ação da PTH; - Demonstrar as vantagens da determinação da isoforma óssea da fosfatase alcalina, em relação à fosfatase alcalina total, no diagnóstico diferencial entre baixa e elevada remodelação óssea; - Utilizar, pela primeira vez em hemodialisados, a piridinolina e a desoxipiridinolina no diagnóstico da reabsorção óssea. Este foi o primeiro marcador sérico específico da atividade osteoclástica, utilizado com sucesso em doentes anúricos em hemodiálise. Evidenciámos uma excelente correlação destes dois marcadores bioquímicos com a superfície osteoclástica e com o número de osteoclastos/mm2;- Demonstrar as acentuadas limitações de outros marcadores da formação e reabsorção óssea (nomeadamente a osteocalcina, o propeptido carboxiterminal do procolagénio tipo I-PICP, e o Telopeptido do colagénio tipo I – ICTP) com base nas correlações entre os doseamentos séricos ou plasmáticos destes marcadores e a biópsia óssea com avaliação histomorfométrica; -Evidenciar as limitações induzidas pela sobrecarga alumínica na interpretação dos níveis séricos dos marcadores não invasivos da remodelação óssea;-Testar a eficácia e segurança da utilização de “microdoses” de desferroxamina na terapêutica da intoxicação alumínica, em doentes com acentuada exposição a este metal;-Demonstrar que os doentes hemodialisados cronicamente com dialisadores de poliacrilonitrilo (membranas de alta permeabilidade),apresentavam menor ativação osteoblástica e osteoclástica, que os doentes dialisados com membranas de cuprofano(baixa permeabilidade), sendo os níveis de iPTH semelhantes em ambos os grupos estudados. Estes resultados apontam para uma menor ativação da remodelação óssea quando se utilizam membranas de hemodiálise mais biocompatíveis e/ou de maior permeabilidade, o que se poderá relacionar com a ultrafiltração de mediadores da ativação celular ou com a menor ativação dos mecanismos estimuladores da remodelação óssea, por parte destas membranas. Entre os mediadores da remodelação óssea que demonstrámos serem relevantes e estarem aumentados no soro de hemodialisados com membranas de baixo fluxo, contam-se a beta-2-microglobulina (2-M) e algumas citoquinas, com ação estimuladora das linhagens celulares envolvidas na remodelação óssea. Demonstrámos igualmente uma correlação positiva dos níveis séricos de 2-M com os níveis séricos da osteocalcina, da isoenzima óssea da fosfatase alcalina (marcadores da formação óssea) e com os níveis séricos da piridinolina (marcador da reabsorção óssea). Os níveis séricos de 2-M correlacionaram-se ainda, de forma negativa, com o volume osteoide (matriz óssea não calcificada). Nestes doentes hemodialisados, demonstrámos a presença de níveis séricos aumentados da interleucina-1, do antagonista do recetor da interleucina-1, da interleucina-6 e do recetor solúvel da interleucina-6. Salientamos as relações inversas que observámos, por um lado entre os níveis de antagonista do recetor da interleucina-1 e a superfície osteoblástica, e por outro lado entre o rácio do recetor da interleucina-6 / interleucina-6 (IL6-r/IL6) e a superfície osteoclástica. De acordo com estes nossos resultados originais, entendemos que a interferência nos níveis circulantes e na ativação local destes mediadores poderá justificar, em grande parte, o aumento da prevalência de doença óssea adinâmica, descrita por nós e por outros grupos. Evidenciámos uma elevadíssima prevalência de doença adinâmica (>50% dos doentes), numa população de hemodialisados sem exposição prévia ao alumínio, tratados de acordo com os K/DOQI “guidelines” e que ao longo de um ano mantiveram níveis séricos de cálcio e de fósforo controlados. Consequentemente, os doentes tratados de forma otimizada apresentaram uma prevalência surpreendentemente elevada de doença adinâmica. Os nossos resultados (classificados com o grau de evidência máxima pelos peritos KDIGO) contribuíram para dar suporte à grande diferença nos guidelines K/DOQI (2003) e KDIGO (2009) no que respeita aos valores alvo da PTH. Estamos conscientes que de que o facto de termos uma percentagem tão elevada de doença óssea adinâmica nas nossas populações de hemodialisados, bem como a demonstração de que alguns doentes com valores de PTH intacta (2ª geração) de cerca de 600 pg/ml tinham doença óssea adinâmica, condicionaram os novos objetivos KDIGO para a PTH. Os nossos resultados suportam, em nossa opinião, a adequação e vantagem da utilização dos critérios da KDIGO em vez dos KDOQI. Tendo em conta que os primeiros definem objetivos para a PTH entre 2 e 9 vezes o limite superior do normal e não se comprometem com valores alvo absolutos e rígidos (definidos previamente nos KDOQI entre 150 e 300 pg/mL), esta nova abordagem parece-nos mais correta.Na nossa investigação clínica, caracterizámos ainda a população hemodialisada portuguesa no que respeita aos níveis séricos de calcidiol, identificando a população com suficiência, insuficiência ou deficiência em vitamina D3. Documentámos uma acentuada prevalência de insuficiência e mesmo de deficiência nesta vitamina, numa vasta população de hemodialisados, a qual, muito provavelmente, reflete de forma fidedigna, o que se pode observar na restante população de doentes portugueses IRC em estádio 5d (em diálise). Descrevemos, pela primeira vez em doentes hemodialisados, uma associação entre deficiência em calcidiol e a presença de fatores de risco cardiovascular (que têm sido identificados nos doentes urémicos). A nossa investigação conduziu-nos a resultados originais, ao identificar os níveis baixos de 25(OH)vitamina D3 como um provável fator de risco cardiovascular em hemodialisados, visto que a deficiência nesta vitamina se associou, de forma muito significativa, ao aumento da prevalência de calcificações vasculares, a inflamação, a pressão de pulso mais elevada, a hipertrofia ventricular esquerda, a insuficiência cardíaca e a níveis séricos aumentados de “BNP-Brain natriuretic peptide”. Finalmente, numa avaliação prospetiva, de intervenção terapêutica, corrigimos a insuficiência ou deficiência em 25(OH)vitamina D3 e demonstrámos que essa correção se associou a uma redução dos fatores de risco cardiovascular. Esta última intervenção foi totalmente inovadora, visto ser a primeira avaliação prospetiva da evolução dos fatores de risco cardiovasculares, em função da suplementação com vitamina D nativa, em doentes hemodialisados. Em resumo, pensamos que os resultados das nossas investigações, acima sumarizadas e apresentadas ao longo dos diversos capítulos desta dissertação,contribuiram para uma nova perspetiva da osteodistrofia renal e para recolocar o foco da atenção dos nefrologistas no tecido ósseo e no eixo paratormona – vitamina D – remodelação óssea. Este eixo surje claramente envolvido em múltiplos processos fisiopatológicos, que suportam a elevada morbilidade e mortalidade (nomeadamente de causa cardiovascular) observada nos doentes urémicos.---------ABSTRACT: The results of our research, presented throughout this thesis, contributed towards the optimisation of the invasive and non-invasive diagnosis of renal osteodystrophy. They have also highlighted the importance, to the clinical and histological expression of the ODR, of some specific characteristics of the haemodialysis population, including: the use of biocompatible high permeability haemodialysis membranes, the use of haemodiafiltration techniques with convection enhancement, as well as the limitations of biochemical markers of bone turnover or native vitamin D insufficiency/deficiency (along with the supplementation results of this vitamin). New bone formation and resorption markers, which were validated by comparison with the results of bone histomorphometry, have been tested for the first time on haemodialysis patients.As a whole, and in an integrated approach, our research enabled us to: - Show the decrease of the PTH/PTHrP receptor expression in cartilage growth, used on an IRC animal model, which explains, to some extent, not only the delayed growth observed in this pathology, but also the slow response to PTH. - Point out the advantages of the determination of bone isoform of alkaline phosphatase, in relation to the total alkaline phosphatase, in the differential diagnosis between low and high-bone turnover.- Use pyridinoline and deoxypyridinoline in the diagnosis of bone resorption for the first time on haemodialysis patients. This was the first specific serum market of the osteoclastic activity, which was successfully used on anuric patients undergoing haemodialysis treatment. We also observed an excellent correlation of these biochemical markers with the osteoclastic surface and the number of osteoclasts/mm2. - Demonstrate the sharp limitations of other markers of bone formation and resorption (namely osteocalcin, carboxyterminal propeptide of type I-PICP procollagen and telopeptide of type I-ICTP collagen) based on correlations between these markers’ serum or plasma assays and bone biopsy with histomorphometric assessment.-Show the limitations induced by aluminium overload in the interpretation of serum levels of bone remodelling non-invasive markers.-Test the efficacy and the safety of the use of deferoxamine “microdoses” for treatment of aluminium overload among patients with high levels of serum aluminium. - Demonstrate that patients with chronic haemodialysis dialysers of polyacrylonitrile (high permeability membranes) show a lower osteoblastic and osteoclastic activation than those undergoing dialysis with cuprofan membranes (low permeability), being the iPTH levels similar in both groups of patients. These findings point towards a lower activation of bone remodelling when using more biocompatible dialysis membranes and/or of higher permeability, which may relate to the ultrafiltration of cell activation mediators or to the lower activation of the stimulating mechanisms of bone remodelling, regarding the membranes. Beta-2-microglobulin (2-M) and some cytokines that play a role/participate in bone remodelling are among the bone remodelling mediators, which we demonstrated to be relevant and to be increased in the serum of haemodialysis with low flow membranes. We also proved that there is a positive correlation of serum 2-M levels not only with serum osteocalcin levels, of the bone isoenzyme of alkaline phosphatase (bone forming markers), but also with levels of serum pyridinoline (bone resorption marker).Serum 2-M levels correlate negatively with the volume of osteoid (uncalcified bone matrix). We also demonstrated the presence of elevated serum levels of interleukin-1,interleukin-1 receptor antagonist, interleukin-6 and soluble interleukin-6 receptor in haemodialysis patients. We stress the inverse relationship which we observed on one hand between the interleukin-1 receptor antagonist levels and the osteoblastic surface and on the other between the ratio of interleukin-6 receptor / interleukin-6 (IL6-r/IL6) and the osteoblastic surface. According to these unique findings, we believe that the interference in the circulating levels and in the local activation of these mediators may partly explain the rising prevalence of adynamic bone disease. A high prevalence of adynamic disease has also been observed in a haemodialysis population (>50% of patients) with no previous exposure to aluminium. The patients were treated according to K/DOQI guidelines and maintained controlled serum calcium and phosphorus levels over one year. As a result, the patients who received optimised treatment showed a surprisingly high prevalence of adynamic disease. Our results, which were ranked with the highest degree of evidence by KDIGO experts, contributed to the great difference regarding the target values of PTH in the K/DOQI (2003) and KDIGO (2009) guidelines. We are aware that the finding of such a high percentage of adynamic bone disease in our haemodialysis population, as well as the evidence that some patients with intact PTH values (2nd generation) of 600 pg/ml suffered from adynamic bone disease, have hindered, the new KDIGO objectives to PTH.In our opinion, our results support the suitability and the advantage of using KDIGO criteria instead of KDOQI. This seems to be the right approach when taking into consideration that KDIGO sets objectives to PTH between 2 and 9 times the normal upper limit and does not compromise with the rigid and absolute target values (between 150 and 300 pg/mL) previously defined by KDOQI. In our clinical research, the Portuguese haemodialysis population was characterised in terms of serum clacidiol levels and identified as having vitamin D3 sufficiency, insufficiency or deficiency. It was also recorded the prevalence of severe vitamin D3 insufficiency and even deficiency in a large haemodialysis population, which most likely provides a reliable picture of the rest of the population in IRC Portuguese patients with 5d stage (undergoing dialysis). We described for the first time in aemosialysis patients an association between calcidiol deficiency and the presence of ardiovascular risk factors, (which have been identified on uraemic patients).Our research led us to unique findings by having identified the low levels of 25(OH) vitamin D3 as a likely cardiovascular risk factor in patients undergoing haemodialysis treatment, given that deficiency in this vitamin has been significantly associated not only with a rise in the prevalence of vascular calcifications, but also inflammation, left ventricular hypertrophy, high pulse pressure and high serum BNPBrain natriuretic peptide levels. Finally, based on a prospective assessment of therapeutic intervention, 25(OH)vitamin D3 insufficiency or deficiency was corrected and we were able to demonstrate that this same correction was associated with a reduction in cardiovascular risk factors. This was a forward-looking intervention regarding the supplementation of native vitamin D in haemodialysis patients, since it was the first prospective assessment of the evolution of cardiovascular risk factors. In short, the results of our research, summarised above and presented throughout the various chapters of this thesis, contributed towards a new perspective of the renal osteodystrophy and also to draw the nephrologists’ attention to the bone tissue and to the axis PTH – vitamin D – bone remodelling. This axis appears clearly involved in multiple physiopathological processes, which support the high morbidity and mortality rate, (particularly of cardiovascular causes), observed in uraemic patients.

Technological evolution

The evolution of a technology and the understanding of the moment in its life cycle is of the utmost importance to the entry strategy devised by any company. Having the entry of EDP Brazil on the micro-generation market as background, the present workproject attempts to summarize the most important topics in management literature concerning the theory of technology life-cycles and the updated literature on developments of photovoltaic technology to infer the current positioning of this technology in the theoretical models. The need for this type of work stems from the very common lack of bridging between the academic research of economic aspects relevant to the evolution of technologies and the agents of research on specific technological issues. When this occurs, namely due to the external nature of research to companies, thereby escaping the harsh economic controls of a profit seeking enterprise, the evolution many times lacks the appropriate framework to be studied on a more forward looking manner and to allow for management decisions to be based on.

Behavior-based price discrimination in a multi-dimensional preferences market

NIPE WP 04/ 2016

Estimating Phillips Curves in Turbulent Times using the ECB’s Survey of Professional Forecasters

This paper uses forecasts from the European Central Bank's Survey of Professional Forecasters to investigate the relationship between inflation and inflation expectations in the euro area. We use theoretical structures based on the New Keynesian and Neoclassical Phillips curves to inform our empirical work. Given the relatively short data span of the Survey of Professional Forecasters and the need to control for many explanatory variables, we use dynamic model averaging in order to ensure a parsimonious econometric speci cation. We use both regression-based and VAR-based methods. We find no support for the backward looking behavior embedded in the Neo-classical Phillips curve. Much more support is found for the forward looking behavior of the New Keynesian Phillips curve, but most of this support is found after the beginning of the financial crisis.

Pension reform in a rapidly ageing country: the case of Ukraine

Ukraine has a rapidly ageing and declining population. A dynamic forward-­looking Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model with an explicitly modelled Pay‐As‐You-­Go pension scheme is constructed to perform simulations of different pension reform scenarios and investigate the impact of population ageing on a wide range of macroeconomic variables. It is shown that, changes in age structure will result in a significant negative impact on the economy and stability of the pension system. Analysis of the potential changes to the pension system is limited to modelling an increase of the pension age, keeping either the workers’ contribution rate or replacement rate constant.

The Impacts of Temporary and Anticipated Tourism Spending.

Part of the local economic impact of a major sporting event comes from the associated temporary tourism expenditures. Typically demand-driven Input-Output (IO) methods are used to quantify the impacts of such expenditures. However, IO modelling has specific weaknesses when measuring temporary tourism impacts; particular problems lie in its treatment of factor supplies and its lack of dynamics. Recent work argues that Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) analysis is more appropriate and this has been widely applied. Neglected in this literature however is an understanding of the role that behavioural characteristics and factor supply assumptions play in determining the economic impact of tourist expenditures, particularly where expenditures are temporary (i.e. of limited duration) and anticipated (i.e. known in advance). This paper uses a CGE model for Scotland in which agents can have myopic- or forward-looking behaviours and shows how these alternative specifications affect the timing and scale of the economic impacts from anticipated and temporary tourism expenditure. The tourism shock analysed is of a scale expected for the Commonwealth Games to be held in Glasgow in 2014. The model shows how “pre-shock” and “legacy” effects – impacts before and after the shock – arise and their quantitative importance. Using the forward-looking model the paper calculates the optimal degree of pre-announcement.

The Monetary policy rules and the inflation process in open emerging

This paper has three objectives. First, it aims at revealing the logic of interest rate setting pursued by monetary authorities of 12 new EU members. Using estimation of an augmented Taylor rule, we find that this setting was not always consistent with the official monetary policy. Second, we seek to shed light on the inflation process of these countries. To this end, we carry out an estimation of an open economy Philips curve (PC). Our main finding is that inflation rates were not only driven by backward persistency but also held a forward-looking component. Finally, we assess the viability of existing monetary arrangements for price stability. The analysis of the conditional inflation variance obtained from GARCH estimation of PC is used for this purpose. We conclude that inflation targeting is preferable to an exchange rate peg because it allowed decreasing the inflation rate and anchored its volatility.

Inflation dynamics and the New Keynesian Phillips curve in EU-4

The paper seeks to shed light on inflation dynamics of four new EU member states: the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia. To this end, the New Keynesian Phillips curve augmented for open economies is estimated and additional statistical tests applied. We find the following. (1) The claim of New Keynesians that the real marginal cost is the main inflation-forcing variable is fragile. (2) Inflation seems to be driven by external factors. (3) Although inflation holds a forward-looking component, the backward-looking component is substantial. An intuitive explanation for higher inflation persistence may be rather adaptive than rational price setting of local firms.

Dynamic product diversity

The goal of this paper is to study the frequency of new product introductions in monopoly markets where demand is subject to transitory saturation. We focus on those types of goods for which consumers purchase at most one unit of each variety, but repeat purchases in the same product category. The model considers infinitely-lived, forward-looking consumers and firms. We show that the share of potential surplus that a monopolist is able to appropriate increases with the frequency of introduction of new products and the intensity of transitory saturation. If the latter is sufficiently strong then the rate of introduction of new products is higher than socially desirable (excessive dynamic product diversity.)

Future hotspots of terrestrial mammal loss.

Current levels of endangerment and historical trends of species and habitats are the main criteria used to direct conservation efforts globally. Estimates of future declines, which might indicate different priorities than past declines, have been limited by the lack of appropriate data and models. Given that much of conservation is about anticipating and responding to future threats, our inability to look forward at a global scale has been a major constraint on effective action. Here, we assess the geography and extent of projected future changes in suitable habitat for terrestrial mammals within their present ranges. We used a global earth-system model, IMAGE, coupled with fine-scale habitat suitability models and parametrized according to four global scenarios of human development. We identified the most affected countries by 2050 for each scenario, assuming that no additional conservation actions other than those described in the scenarios take place. We found that, with some exceptions, most of the countries with the largest predicted losses of suitable habitat for mammals are in Africa and the Americas. African and North American countries were also predicted to host the most species with large proportional global declines. Most of the countries we identified as future hotspots of terrestrial mammal loss have little or no overlap with the present global conservation priorities, thus confirming the need for forward-looking analyses in conservation priority setting. The expected growth in human populations and consumption in hotspots of future mammal loss mean that local conservation actions such as protected areas might not be sufficient to mitigate losses. Other policies, directed towards the root causes of biodiversity loss, are required, both in Africa and other parts of the world.

Monetary policy rules and macroeconomic stability: Evidence and some theory

We estimate a forward-looking monetary policy reaction function for thepostwar United States economy, before and after Volcker's appointmentas Fed Chairman in 1979. Our results point to substantial differencesin the estimated rule across periods. In particular, interest ratepolicy in the Volcker-Greenspan period appears to have been much moresensitive to changes in expected inflation than in the pre-Volckerperiod. We then compare some of the implications of the estimated rulesfor the equilibrium properties of inflation and output, using a simplemacroeconomic model, and show that the Volcker-Greenspan rule is stabilizing.

Selling to consumers with endogenous types

For many goods (such as experience goods or addictive goods), consumers preferences may change over time. In this paper, we examine a monopolist s optimal pricing schedule when current consumption can affect a consumer s valuation in the future and valuations are unobservable. We assume that consumers are anonymous, i.e. the monopolist can t observe a consumer s past consumption history. For myopic consumers, the optimal consumption schedule is distorted upwards, involving substantial discounts for low valuation types. This pushes low types into higher valuations, from which rents can be extracted.For forward looking consumers, there may be a further upward distortion of consumption due to a reversal of the adverse selection effect; low valuation consumers now have a strong interest in consumption in order to increase their valuations. Firms will find it profitable to educate consumers and encourage forward looking behavior.

Constant interest rate projections without the curse of indeterminacy

Constant interest rate (CIR) projections are often criticized on the grounds that they are inconsistent with the existence of a unique equilibrium in a variety of forward-looking models. This note shows howto construct CIR projections that are not subject to that criticism, using a standard New Keynesian model as a reference framework.

Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis

We develop and estimate a structural model of inflation that allowsfor a fraction of firms that use a backward looking rule to setprices. The model nests the purely forward looking New KeynesianPhillips curve as a particular case. We use measures of marginalcosts as the relevant determinant of inflation, as the theorysuggests, instead of an ad-hoc output gap. Real marginal costsare a significant and quantitatively important determinant ofinflation. Backward looking price setting, while statisticallysignificant, is not quantitatively important. Thus, we concludethat the New Keynesian Phillips curve provides a good firstapproximation to the dynamics of inflation.

Business Sphere, Vol. 21, no.1

These are exciting days in Iowa and the Upper Midwest—the preferred location for developing the green economy and the renewable energy industry. Forward looking policies of Governor Chet Culver, who has set a goal of making our state energy independent, and a ready response to new opportunities are moving Iowa forward in the vanguard of energy transformation. The adoption and consumption of alternative energy will continue to increase. We have succeeded where others are just beginning because we have the grain and crop residues that have made Iowa first in biofuels, sustained winds to get more of our electricity from wind than any other state, and research universities that are hotbeds of renewable energy innovation.