Predicting the future effectiveness of protected areas for bird conservation in Mediterranean ecosystems under climate change and novel fire regime scenarios

AimGlobal environmental changes challenge traditional conservation approaches based on the selection of static protected areas due to their limited ability to deal with the dynamic nature of driving forces relevant to biodiversity. The Natura 2000 network (N2000) constitutes a major milestone in biodiversity conservation in Europe, but the degree to which this static network will be able to reach its long-term conservation objectives raises concern. We assessed the changes in the effectiveness of N2000 in a Mediterranean ecosystem between 2000 and 2050 under different combinations of climate and land cover change scenarios. LocationCatalonia, Spain. MethodsPotential distribution changes of several terrestrial bird species of conservation interest included in the European Union's Birds Directive were predicted within an ensemble-forecasting framework that hierarchically integrated climate change and land cover change scenarios. Land cover changes were simulated using a spatially explicit fire-succession model that integrates fire management strategies and vegetation encroachment after the abandonment of cultivated areas as the main drivers of landscape dynamics in Mediterranean ecosystems. ResultsOur results suggest that the amount of suitable habitats for the target species will strongly decrease both inside and outside N2000. However, the effectiveness of N2000 is expected to increase in the next decades because the amount of suitable habitats is predicted to decrease less inside than outside this network. Main conclusionsSuch predictions shed light on the key role that the current N2000may play in the near future and emphasize the need for an integrative conservation perspective wherein agricultural, forest and fire management policies should be considered to effectively preserve key habitats for threatened birds in fire-prone, highly dynamic Mediterranean ecosystems. Results also show the importance of considering landscape dynamics and the synergies between different driving forces when assessing the long-term effectiveness of protected areas for biodiversity conservation.

Climate Change and the Cost of Carbon Sequestration: The Case of Forest Management

The Kyoto protocol allows Annex I countries to deduct carbon sequestered by land use, land-use change and forestry from their national carbon emissions. Thornley and Cannell (2000) demonstrated that the objectives of maximizing timber and carbon sequestration are not complementary. Based on this finding, this paper determines the optimal selective management regime taking into account the underlying biophysical and economic processes. The results show that the net benefits of carbon storage only compensate the decrease in net benefits of timber production once the carbon price has exceeded a certain threshold value. The sequestration costs are significantly lower than previous estimates

Photosynthesis and carbon gain under contrasting light levels in seedlings of a pioneer and a climax tree from a Brazilian Semideciduous Tropical Forest

In this study we evaluated photosynthetic characteristics and patterns of biomass accumulation in seedlings of two tree species from a Semideciduous Tropical Forest of Brazil. Seedlings of Trema micrantha (L.) Blum. (pioneer) and Hymenaea courbaril (L.) var. stilbocarpa (Hayne) Lee & Langenh. (climax) were grown for 4 months under low light (LL) (5%-8% of sunlight) and high light (HL) (100% of sunlight). Under HL, T. micrantha showed higher CO2 assimilation rates (A CO2) and light saturation than H. courbaril. Under LL, A CO2 were higher in H. courbaril. Under LL, total chlorophyll and carotenoid contents per unit leaf area were higher in H. courbaril. Chlorophyll a/b ratio was higher in T. micrantha under both light regimes. A CO2 and Fv/Fm ratio at both pre-dawn and midday in H. coubaril were lower in HL indicating chronic photoinhibition. Thus, the climax species was more susceptible to photoinhibition than the pioneer. However, H. courbaril produced higher total biomass under both treatments showing high efficiency in the maintenance of a positive carbon balance. Thus, both species expressed characteristics that favor growth under conditions that resemble their natural microenvironments, but H. courbaril also grew under HL. The ecophysiological range of responses to contrasting light levels of this climax plant seems to be broader than generally observed for other rainforest climax species. We propose that this could be related to the particular spatio-temporal light regime of the semideciduous forests.

Fire, climate and vegetation linkages in the Bolivian Chiquitano Seasonally Dry Tropical Forest

South American seasonally-dry tropical forests (SDTF) are critically endangered, with only a small proportion of their original distribution remaining. This paper presents a 12,000 year reconstruction of climate change, fire and vegetation dynamics in the Bolivian Chiquitano SDTF, based upon pollen and charcoal analysis, to examine the resilience of this ecosystem to drought and fire. Our analysis demonstrates a complex relationship between climate, fire and floristic composition over multi-millennial time scales, and reveals that moisture variability is the dominant control upon community turnover in this ecosystem. Maximum drought during the early Holocene, consistent with regional drought reconstructions, correlates with a period of significant fire activity between 8,000 and 7,000 cal yr BP which resulted in a decrease in SDTF diversity. As fire activity declined, but severe regional droughts persisted through the mid-Holocene, SDTF, including Anadenanthera and Astronium, became firmly established in the Bolivian lowlands. The trend of decreasing fire activity during the last two millennia promotes the idea among forest ecologists that SDTF are threatened by fire. Our analysis shows that the Chiquitano seasonally dry biome has been more resilient to Holocene changes in climate and fire regime than previously assumed, but raises questions over whether this resilience will continue in the future under increased temperatures and drought coupled with a higher frequency anthropogenic fire regime.

The igapó of the Negro River in central Amazonia: Linking late-successional inundation forest with fluvial geomorphology

Despite important progress on Amazonian floodplain research, the flooded forest of the Negro River igapó has been little investigated. In particular, no study has previously focused the linkage between fluvial geomorphology and the floristic variation across the course of the river. In this paper we describe and interpret relations between igapó forest, fluvial geomorphology and the spatial evolution of the igapó forest through the Holocene. Therefore, we investigate the effect of geomorphological units of the floodplain and channel patterns on tree diversity, composition and structural parameters of the late-successional igapó forest. Our results show that sites sharing almost identical flooding regime, exhibit variable tree assemblages, species richness and structural parameters such as basal area, tree density and tree heights, indicating a trend in which the geomorphologic styles seem to partially control the organization of igapó's tree communities. This can be also explained by the high variability of well-developed geomorphologic units in short distances and concentrated in small areas. In this dynamic the inputs from the species pool of tributary rivers play a crucial role, but also the depositional and erosional processes associated with the evolution of the floodplain during the Holocene may control floristic and structural components of the igapó forests. These results suggest that a comprehensive approach integrating floristic and geomorphologic methods is needed to understand the distribution of the complex vegetation patterns in complex floodplains such as the igapó of the Negro River. This combination of approaches may introduce a better comprehension of the temporal and spatial evolutionary analysis and a logic rationale to understand the vegetation distribution and variability in function of major landforms, soil distributions and hydrology. Thus, by integrating the past into macroecological analyses will sharpen our understanding of the underlying forces for contemporary floristic patterns along the inundation forests of the Negro River. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd.

Can overharvesting of a non-timber-forest-product change the regeneration dynamics of a tropical rainforest? The case study of Euterpe edulis

The exploitation of non-timber forest products is often considered a low-impact activity in tropical forests. However, assessments of the impacts of such activity are mostly focused on the harvested species and not on the plant community, thus limiting our understanding for establishing forest management recommendations. We investigated the consequences of Euterpe edulis palm heart harvesting on the seed rain in the Brazilian Atlantic rainforest. We compared the density of E. edulis individuals, as well as the density of E. edulis seeds, and the density, richness and functional composition of seed rain of the whole plant community, before and after palm heart harvesting in a 10 ha permanent plot. This assessment was carried out in preserved (typical old-growth Atlantic rainforest) and in disturbed (more open habitat dominated by the native bamboo Guadua tagoara) forest patches. Palm harvesting reduced the E. edulis population from 202.16 to 25.67 ind/ha and its seed rain density from 0.362 to 0.3 seeds/m2 and from 2.395 to 0.15 seeds/m2 in preserved and disturbed forest patches, respectively. Seed density of light-dependent climbers, pioneer trees, bamboo and animal-dispersed seeds increased after palm harvesting, especially in the disturbed forest patches, where palm harvesting was more intense and may have changed the light regime of the understory. On the other hand, species richness of the plant community declined by half. We observed a remarkable decline in the number of animal-dispersed species, especially for those with large seeds, suggesting that the activity of seed dispersers, including many species attracted by E. edulis fruits, was reduced. Therefore, harvesting of E. edulis palm heart may change the regeneration dynamics of the Atlantic rainforest, both due to shifts in forest structure, mediated by the removal of individuals from the forest canopy, and in community functioning, mediated by the interference on the activity of seed dispersers. © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Regime térmico e hídrico do solo para área de floresta tropical em anos de El Niño e La Niña, Caxiuanã-PA: estudo de caso

Os regimes térmicos e hídricos do solo se comportam de maneiras diferentes em anos de ocorrência dos fenômenos El Niño, La niña e ano de não ocorrência de nenhum dos dois fenômenos. Para estudar estes comportamentos utilizou-se dados de totais horários e mensais da precipitação pluviométrica, dados médios horários e mensais da temperatura do solo nas profundidades de 2cm e 10cm e umidade do solo nas profundidades de 5cm e 20cm, para os anos representativos dos eventos pesquisados. Os resultados mostram que o ano sob a influência do fenômeno El Niño, apresentou maiores valores de temperatura e menores valores de umidade do solo, quando comparado com o ano que esteve sob a influência do fenômeno La Niña. Por outro lado, o ano em que não houve ocorrência dos fenômenos La Niña e El Niño, apresentou valores de temperatura (umidade) do solo maiores (menores) do que o ano de La Niña, porém menores (maiores) do que no ano de El Niño.

Forest destructuring as revealed by the temporal dynamics of fundamental species - Case study of Santa Genebra Forest in Brazil

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Soil-mediated effects on potential Euterpe edulis (Arecaceae) fruit and palm heart sustainable management in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest

Euterpe edulis is an endangered species due to palm heart overharvesting, the most important non-timber forest product of the Brazilian Atlantic Forest, and fruit exploitation has been introduced as a low impacting alternative. However, E. edulis is a keystone species for frugivores birds, and even the impact of fruit exploitation needs to be better investigated. Since this species occurs over contrasting habitats, the establishment of site-specific standards and limits for exploitation may also be essential to achieve truly sustainable management. In this context, we sought to investigate how soil chemical composition would potentially affect E. edulis (Arecaceae) palm heart and fruit exploitation considering current standards of management. We studied natural populations found in Restinga Forest and Atlantic Rainforest remnants established within Natural Reserves of Sao Paulo State, SE Brazil, where 10.24 ha permanent plots, composed of a grid of 256 subplots (20 m x 20 m), were located. In each of these subplots, we evaluated soil chemical composition and diameter at breast height of E. edulis individuals. Additionally, we evaluated fruit yield in 2008 and 2009 in 20 individuals per year. The Atlantic Rainforest population had a much higher proportion of larger diameter individuals than the population from the Restinga Forest, as a result of habitat-mediated effects, especially those related to soil. Sodium and potassium concentration in Restinga Forest soils, which have strong negative and positive effect on palm growth, respectively, played a key role in determining those differences. Overall, the number of fruits that could be exploited in the Atlantic Rainforest was four times higher than in Restinga Forest. If current rules for palm heart and fruit harvesting were followed without any restriction to different habitats, Restinga Forest populations are under severe threat, as this study shows that they are not suitable for sustainable management of both fruits and palm heart. Hence, a habitat-specific approach of sustainable management is needed for this species in order to respect the demographic and ecological dynamics of each population to be managed. These findings suggest that any effort to create general management standards of low impacting harvesting may be unsuccessful if the species of interest occur over a wide range of ecosystems. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Predator-prey interactions: jaguar predation on caiman in a floodplain forest

Advances in the understanding of ecological factors determining predatorprey interactions have provided a strong theoretical background on diet preferences of predators. We examined patterns of jaguar predation on caiman in southern Pantanal, Brazil. We investigated factors affecting predation rates and vulnerability of caiman to predation by jaguars. We recorded 114 caiman mortality incidents. Predation accounted for 62.3% (n = 71) of all caiman found dead, while other causes of mortality (nonpredation) accounted for 37.7% (n = 43). We found that jaguars prey on a broad size range of caiman body and caiman predation was influenced by distance to forests. During dry seasons, 70% (n = 49) of deaths were due to predation, while 30% (n = 21) were due to nonpredation causes. However, we found no significant relationship between annual and monthly killings of caiman and rainfall totals by year and month (r = 0.130, r = -0.316). The annual flooding regime may be a more important factor influencing prey selection by jaguars. Although neotropical crocodilians are relatively well studied, their interactions with jaguars have been mostly ignored and should be prioritized in future studies.

External drivers of biogeochemical cycles in a tropical montane forest in Ecuador

Successful conservation of tropical montane forest, one of the most threatened ecosystems on earth, requires detailed knowledge of its biogeochemistry. Of particular interest is the response of the biogeochemical element cycles to external influences such as element deposition or climate change. Therefore the overall objective of my study was to contribute to improved understanding of role and functioning of the Andean tropical montane forest. In detail, my objectives were to determine (1) the role of long-range transported aerosols and their transport mechanisms, and (2) the role of short-term extreme climatic events for the element budget of Andean tropical forest. In a whole-catchment approach including three 8-13 ha microcatchments under tropical montane forest on the east-exposed slope of the eastern cordillera in the south Ecuadorian Andes at 1850-2200 m above sea level I monitored at least in weekly resolution the concentrations and fluxes of Ca, Mg, Na, K, NO3-N, NH4-N, DON, P, S, TOC, Mn, and Al in bulk deposition, throughfall, litter leachate, soil solution at the 0.15 and 0.3 m depths, and runoff between May 1998 and April 2003. I also used meteorological data from my study area collected by cooperating researchers and the Brazilian meteorological service (INPE), as well as remote sensing products of the North American and European space agencies NASA and ESA. My results show that (1) there was a strong interannual variation in deposition of Ca [4.4-29 kg ha-1 a-1], Mg [1.6-12], and K [9.8-30]) between 1998 and 2003. High deposition changed the Ca and Mg budgets of the catchments from loss to retention, suggesting that the additionally available Ca and Mg was used by the ecosystem. Increased base metal deposition was related to dust outbursts of the Sahara and an Amazonian precipitation pattern with trans-regional dry spells allowing for dust transport to the Andes. The increased base metal deposition coincided with a strong La Niña event in 1999/2000. There were also significantly elevated H+, N, and Mn depositions during the annual biomass burning period in the Amazon basin. Elevated H+ deposition during the biomass burning period caused elevated base metal loss from the canopy and the organic horizon and deteriorated already low base metal supply of the vegetation. Nitrogen was only retained during biomass burning but not during non-fire conditions when deposition was much smaller. Therefore biomass burning-related aerosol emissions in Amazonia seem large enough to substantially increase element deposition at the western rim of Amazonia. Particularly the related increase of acid deposition impoverishes already base-metal scarce ecosystems. As biomass burning is most intense during El Niño situations, a shortened ENSO cycle because of global warming likely enhances the acid deposition at my study forest. (2) Storm events causing near-surface water flow through C- and nutrient-rich topsoil during rainstorms were the major export pathway for C, N, Al, and Mn (contributing >50% to the total export of these elements). Near-surface flow also accounted for one third of total base metal export. This demonstrates that storm-event related near-surface flow markedly affects the cycling of many nutrients in steep tropical montane forests. Changes in the rainfall regime possibly associated with global climate change will therefore also change element export from the study forest. Element budgets of Andean tropical montane rain forest proved to be markedly affected by long-range transport of Saharan dust, biomass burning-related aerosols, or strong rainfalls during storm events. Thus, increased acid and nutrient deposition and the global climate change probably drive the tropical montane forest to another state with unknown consequences for its functions and biological diversity.

An ice-core based history of Siberian forest fires since AD 1250

Forest fires play a key role in the global carbon cycle and thus, can affect regional and global climate. Although fires in extended areas of Russian boreal forests have a considerable influence on atmospheric greenhouse gas and soot concentrations, estimates of their impact on climate are hampered by a lack of data on the history of forest fires. Especially regions with strong continental climate are of high importance due to an intensified development of wildfires. In this study we reconstruct the fire history of Southern Siberia during the past 750 years using ice-core based nitrate, potassium, and charcoal concentration records from Belukha glacier in the continental Siberian Altai. A period of exceptionally high forest-fire activity was observed between AD 1600 and 1680, following an extremely dry period AD 1540-1600. Ice-core pollen data suggest distinct forest diebacks and the expansion of steppe in response to dry climatic conditions. Coherence with a paleoenvironmental record from the 200 km distant Siberian lake Teletskoye shows that the vegetational shift AD 1540-1680, the increase in fire activity AD 1600-1680, and the subsequent recovery of forests AD 1700 were of regional significance. Dead biomass accumulation in response to drought and high temperatures around AD 1600 probably triggered maximum forest-fire activity AD 1600-1680. The extreme dry period in the 16th century was also observed at other sites in Central Asia and is possibly associated with a persistent positive mode of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). No significant increase in biomass burning occurred in the Altai region during the last 300 years, despite strongly increasing temperatures and human activities. Our results imply that precipitation changes controlled fire-regime and vegetation shifts in the Altai region during the past 750 years. We conclude that high sensitivity of ecosystems to occasional decadal-scale drought events may trigger unprecedented environmental reorganizations under global-warming conditions.

Changes in biodiversity and vegetation composition in the central Swiss Alps during the transition from pristine forest to first farming

Aim: We investigate the response of vegetation composition and plant diversity to increasing land clearance, burning and agriculture at the Mesolithic–Neolithic transition (c. 6400–5000 bc) when first farming was introduced. Location: The Valais, a dry alpine valley in Switzerland. Methods: We combine high-resolution pollen, microscopic charcoal and sedimentological data to reconstruct past vegetation, fire and land use. Pollen evenness, rarefaction-based and accumulation-based palynological richness analyses were used to reconstruct past trends in plant diversity. Results: Our results show that from c. 5500 cal. yr bc, slash-and-burn activities created a more open landscape for agriculture, at the expense of Pinus and Betula forests. Land clearance by slash-and-burn promoted diverse grassland ecosystems, while on the long term it reduced woodland and forest diversity, affecting important tree species such as Ulmus and Tilia. Main conclusions: Understanding the resilience of Alpine ecosystems to past disturbance variability is relevant for future nature conservation plans. Our study suggests that forecasted land abandonment in the Alps will lead to pre-Neolithic conditions, with significant biodiversity losses in abandoned grassland ecosystems. Thus, management measures for biodiversity, such as ecological compensation areas, are needed in agricultural landscapes with a millennial history of human impact, such as the non-boreal European lowlands. Our study supports the hypothesis that species coexistence is maximized at an intermediate level of disturbances. For instance, species richness decreased when fire exceeded the quasi-natural variability observed during the Mesolithic times. Under a more natural disturbance regime, rather closed Pinus sylvestris and mixed oak forests would prevail.

Forest regeneration capacity and its enhancement by forest management and silviculture in Cabo Delgado

SDC has been involved in rural development in Cabo Delgado for more than 30 years. Shortly after the independence of Mozambique, projects in water supply and integrated rural development were initiated. The silvoagropastoral project FO9 based in Mueda was a very early experience in forestry in Cabo Delgado. Andreas Kläy was responsible for the forestry sector in FO9 for 3 years in the early 1980s and had an opportunity to initiate an exchange of ideas and experience in rural development theory and approaches with Yussuf Adam, who was doing research in human anthropology and history in the province. 25 years later, the current situation of forest management in Cabo Delgado was reassessed, with a specific focus on concessions in the North. The opportunity for a partnership between the MITI SA, the University of Eduardo Mondlane, and CDE was created on the basis of this preliminary study1. The aim of this partnership is to generate knowledge and develop capacity for sustainable forest management. The preliminary study showed that “…we have to face weaknesses and would like to start a learning process with the main institutions, organisations, and stakeholder groups active in forest management and research in the North of Cabo Delgado. This learning process will involve studies supported by competent research institutions and workshops …” The specific objectives of ESAPP project Q804 are the following: 1. Contribute to understanding of the forestry sector; 2. Capacity development for professionals and academics; 3. Support for the private sector and the local forest service; 4. Support data generation at Cabo Delgado's Provincial Service; 5. Capacity development for Swiss academic institutions (CDE and ETHZ). A conceptual planning platform was elaborated as a basis for cooperation and research in the partnership (cf. Annex 1). The partners agreed to work on two lines of research: biophysical and socio-economic. In order to ensure a transdisciplinary approach, disciplinary research is anchored in common understanding in workshops based on the LforS methods. These workshops integrate the main stakeholders in the local context of the COMADEL concession in Nangade District managed by MITI SA, and take place in the village of Namiune. The research team observed that current management schemes consist mainly of strategies of nature mining by most stakeholders involved. Institutional settings - formal and informal - have little impact due to weak capacity at the local level and corruption. Local difficulties in a remote rural area facilitate external access to resources and are perpetuated by the loss of benefits. The benefits of logging remain at the top level (economic and political elites). The interests of the owners of the concession in stopping the loss of resources caused by this regime offers a unique opportunity to intervene in the logic of resource degradation and agony in rural development and forest management.

Challenges in the participatory assessment of sustainable management practices in dryland ecosystems under regime shifts

Regime shifts, defined as a radical and persistent reconfiguration of an ecosystem following a disturbance, have been acknowledged by scientists as a very important aspect of the dynamic of ecosystems. However, their consideration in land management planning remains marginal and limited to specific processes and systems. Current research focuses on mathematical modeling and statistical analysis of spatio-temporal data for specific environmental variables. These methods do not fulfill the needs of land managers, who are confronted with a multitude of processes and pressure types and require clear and simple strategies to prevent regime shift or to increase the resilience of their environment. The EU-FP7 CASCADE project is looking at regime shifts of dryland ecosystems in southern Europe and specifically focuses on rangeland and forest systems which are prone to various land degradation threats. One of the aims of the project is to evaluate the impact of different management practices on the dynamic of the environment in a participatory manner, including a multi-stakeholder evaluation of the state of the environment and of the management potential. To achieve this objective we have organized several stakeholder meetings and we have compiled a review of management practices using the WOCAT methodology, which enables merging scientific and land users knowledge. We highlight here the main challenges we have encountered in applying the notion of regime shift to real world socio-ecological systems and in translating related concepts such as tipping points, stable states, hysteresis and resilience to land managers, using concrete examples from CASCADE study sites. Secondly, we explore the advantages of including land users’ knowledge in the scientific understanding of regime shifts. Moreover, we discuss useful alternative concepts and lessons learnt that will allow us to build a participatory method for the assessment of resilient management practices in specific socio-ecological systems and to foster adaptive dryland management.