Global-scale climate impact functions: the relationship between climate forcing and impact

Although there is a strong policy interest in the impacts of climate change corresponding to different degrees of climate change, there is so far little consistent empirical evidence of the relationship between climate forcing and impact. This is because the vast majority of impact assessments use emissions-based scenarios with associated socio-economic assumptions, and it is not feasible to infer impacts at other temperature changes by interpolation. This paper presents an assessment of the global-scale impacts of climate change in 2050 corresponding to defined increases in global mean temperature, using spatially-explicit impacts models representing impacts in the water resources, river flooding, coastal, agriculture, ecosystem and built environment sectors. Pattern-scaling is used to construct climate scenarios associated with specific changes in global mean surface temperature, and a relationship between temperature and sea level used to construct sea level rise scenarios. Climate scenarios are constructed from 21 climate models to give an indication of the uncertainty between forcing and response. The analysis shows that there is considerable uncertainty in the impacts associated with a given increase in global mean temperature, due largely to uncertainty in the projected regional change in precipitation. This has important policy implications. There is evidence for some sectors of a non-linear relationship between global mean temperature change and impact, due to the changing relative importance of temperature and precipitation change. In the socio-economic sectors considered here, the relationships are reasonably consistent between socio-economic scenarios if impacts are expressed in proportional terms, but there can be large differences in absolute terms. There are a number of caveats with the approach, including the use of pattern-scaling to construct scenarios, the use of one impacts model per sector, and the sensitivity of the shape of the relationships between forcing and response to the definition of the impact indicator.

Chemical analysis with regard to global and local climatic forcing measured on sediment core GeoB3711-1, GeoB3711-3 and GeoB4917-8

Global and local climatic forcing, e.g. concentration of atmospheric CO2 or insolation, influence the distribution of C3 and C4 plants in southwest Africa. C4 plants dominate in more arid and warmer areas and are favoured by lower pCO2 levels. Several studies have assessed past and present continental vegetation by the analysis of terrestrial n-alkanes in near-coastal deep sea sediments using single samples or a small number of samples from a given climatic stage. The objectives of this study were to evaluate vegetation changes in southwest Africa with regard to climatic changes during the Late Pleistocene and the Holocene and to elucidate the potential of single sample simplifications. We analysed two sediment cores at high resolution, altogether ca. 240 samples, from the Southeast Atlantic Ocean (20°S and 12°S) covering the time spans of 18 to 1 ka and 56 to 2 ka, respectively. Our results for 20°S showed marginally decreasing C4 plant domination (of ca. 5%) during deglaciation based on average chain length (ACL27-33 values) and carbon isotopic composition of the C31 and C33 n-alkanes. Values for single samples from 18 ka and the Holocene overlap and, thus, are not significantly representative of the climatic stages they derive from. In contrast, at 12°S the n-alkane parameters show a clear difference of plant type for the Late Pleistocene (C4 plant domination, 66% C4 on average) and the Holocene (C3 plant domination, 40% C4 on average). During deglaciation vegetation change highly correlates with the increase in pCO2 (r² = 0.91). Short-term climatic events such as Heinrich Stadials or Antarctic warming periods are not reflected by vegetation changes in the catchment area. Instead, smaller vegetation fluctuations during the Late Pleistocene occur in accordance with local variations of insolation.

Orbitally tuned time scale and astronomical forcing in the middle Eocene to early Oligocene determined on ODP and IODP sediment cores

Deciphering the driving mechanisms of Earth system processes, including the climate dynamics expressed as paleoceanographic events, requires a complete, continuous, and high-resolution stratigraphy that is very accurately dated. In this study, we construct a robust astronomically calibrated age model for the middle Eocene to early Oligocene interval (31-43 Ma) in order to permit more detailed study of the exceptional climatic events that occurred during this time, including the Middle Eocene Climate Optimum and the Eocene/Oligocene transition. A goal of this effort is to accurately date the middle Eocene to early Oligocene composite section cored during the Pacific Equatorial Age Transect (PEAT, IODP Exp. 320/321). The stratigraphic framework for the new time scale is based on the identification of the stable long eccentricity cycle in published and new high-resolution records encompassing bulk and benthic stable isotope, calibrated XRF core scanning, and magnetostratigraphic data from ODP Sites 171B-1052, 189-1172, 199-1218, and 207-1260 as well as IODP Sites 320-U1333, and -U1334 spanning magnetic polarity Chrons C12n to C20n. Subsequently we applied orbital tuning of the records to the La2011 orbital solution. The resulting new time scale revises and refines the existing orbitally tuned age model and the Geomagnetic Polarity Time Scale from 31 to 43 Ma. Our newly defined absolute age for the Eocene/Oligocene boundary validates the astronomical tuned age of 33.89 Ma identified at the Massignano (Italy) global stratotype section and point. Our compilation of geochemical records of climate-controlled variability in sedimentation through the middle-to-late Eocene and early Oligocene demonstrates strong power in the eccentricity band that is readily tuned to the latest astronomical solution. Obliquity driven cyclicity is only apparent during very long eccentricity cycle minima around 35.5 Ma, 38.3 Ma and 40.1 Ma.

Petroleomics By Electrospray Ionization Ft-icr Mass Spectrometry Coupled To Partial Least Squares With Variable Selection Methods: Prediction Of The Total Acid Number Of Crude Oils.

Negative-ion mode electrospray ionization, ESI(-), with Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry (FT-ICR MS) was coupled to a Partial Least Squares (PLS) regression and variable selection methods to estimate the total acid number (TAN) of Brazilian crude oil samples. Generally, ESI(-)-FT-ICR mass spectra present a power of resolution of ca. 500,000 and a mass accuracy less than 1 ppm, producing a data matrix containing over 5700 variables per sample. These variables correspond to heteroatom-containing species detected as deprotonated molecules, [M - H](-) ions, which are identified primarily as naphthenic acids, phenols and carbazole analog species. The TAN values for all samples ranged from 0.06 to 3.61 mg of KOH g(-1). To facilitate the spectral interpretation, three methods of variable selection were studied: variable importance in the projection (VIP), interval partial least squares (iPLS) and elimination of uninformative variables (UVE). The UVE method seems to be more appropriate for selecting important variables, reducing the dimension of the variables to 183 and producing a root mean square error of prediction of 0.32 mg of KOH g(-1). By reducing the size of the data, it was possible to relate the selected variables with their corresponding molecular formulas, thus identifying the main chemical species responsible for the TAN values.

The Basic Reproduction Number Obtained From Jacobian And Next Generation Matrices - A Case Study Of Dengue Transmission Modelling.

The basic reproduction number is a key parameter in mathematical modelling of transmissible diseases. From the stability analysis of the disease free equilibrium, by applying Routh-Hurwitz criteria, a threshold is obtained, which is called the basic reproduction number. However, the application of spectral radius theory on the next generation matrix provides a different expression for the basic reproduction number, that is, the square root of the previously found formula. If the spectral radius of the next generation matrix is defined as the geometric mean of partial reproduction numbers, however the product of these partial numbers is the basic reproduction number, then both methods provide the same expression. In order to show this statement, dengue transmission modelling incorporating or not the transovarian transmission is considered as a case study. Also tuberculosis transmission and sexually transmitted infection modellings are taken as further examples.

Genomic Copy Number Alterations Of Primary And Secondary Metastasizing Pleomorphic Adenomas.

Metastasizing pleomorphic adenoma (MPA) is a rare tumour, and its mechanism of metastasis still is unknown. To date, there has been no study on MPA genomics. We analysed primary and secondary MPAs with array comparative genomic hybridization to identify somatic copy number alterations and affected genes. Tumour DNA samples from primary (parotid salivary gland) and secondary (scalp skin) MPAs were subjected to array comparative genomic hybridization investigation, and the data were analysed with NEXUS COPY NUMBER DISCOVERY. The primary MPA showed copy number losses affecting 3p22.2p14.3 and 19p13.3p123, and a complex pattern of four different deletions at chromosome 6. The 3p deletion encompassed several genes: CTNNB1, SETD2, BAP1, and PBRM1, among others. The secondary MPA showed a genomic profile similar to that of the primary MPA, with acquisition of additional copy number changes affecting 9p24.3p13.1 (loss), 19q11q13.43 (gain), and 22q11.1q13.33 (gain). Our findings indicated a clonal origin of the secondary MPA, as both tumours shared a common profile of genomic copy number alterations. Furthermore, we were able to detect in the primary tumour a specific pattern of copy number alterations that could explain the metastasizing characteristic, whereas the secondary MPA showed a more unbalanced genome.

Investigation Of Genetic Factors Underlying Typical Orofacial Clefts: Mutational Screening And Copy Number Variation.

Typical orofacial clefts (OFCs) comprise cleft lip, cleft palate and cleft lip and palate. The complex etiology has been postulated to involve chromosome rearrangements, gene mutations and environmental factors. A group of genes including IRF6, FOXE1, GLI2, MSX2, SKI, SATB2, MSX1 and FGF has been implicated in the etiology of OFCs. Recently, the role of the copy number variations (CNVs) has been studied in genetic defects and diseases. CNVs act by modifying gene expression, disrupting gene sequence or altering gene dosage. The aims of this study were to screen the above-mentioned genes and to investigate CNVs in patients with OFCs. The sample was composed of 23 unrelated individuals who were grouped according to phenotype (associated with other anomalies or isolated) and familial recurrence. New sequence variants in GLI2, MSX1 and FGF8 were detected in patients, but not in their parents, as well as in 200 control chromosomes, indicating that these were rare variants. CNV screening identified new genes that can influence OFC pathogenesis, particularly highlighting TCEB3 and KIF7, that could be further analyzed. The findings of the present study suggest that the mechanism underlying CNV associated with sequence variants may play a role in the etiology of OFC.

Malpighiaceae: correlations between habit, fruit type and basic chromosome number

The family Malpighiaceae presents species with different habits, fruit types and cytological characters. Climbers are considered the most derived habit, followed, respectively, by the shrubby and arboreal ones. The present study examines the relationship between basic chromosome numbers and the derivation of climbing habit and fruit types in Malpighiaceae. A comparison of all the chromosome number reports for Malpighiaceae showed a predominance of chromosome numbers based on x=5 or 10 in the genera of sub-family Malpighioideae, mainly represented by climbers with winged fruits, whereas non-climbing species with non-winged fruits, which predominate in sub-family Byrsonimoideae, had counts based on x=6, which is considered the less derived basic number for the family. Based on such data, confirmed by statistic assays, and on the monophyletic origin of this family, we admit the hypothesis that morphological derivation of habit and fruit is correlated with chromosome basic number variation in the family Malpighiaceae.

Influence of English language in the number of citations of articles published in Brazilian journals of Ophthalmology

PURPOSE: To determine the association between language and number of citations of ophthalmology articles published in Brazilian journals. METHODS: This study was a systematic review. Original articles were identified by review of documents published at the two Brazilian ophthalmology journals indexed at Science Citation Index Expanded - SCIE [Arquivos Brasileiros de Oftalmologia (ABO) and Revista Brasileira de Oftalmologia (RBO)]. All document types (articles and reviews) listed at SCIE in English (English Group) or in Portuguese (Portuguese Group) from January 1, 2008 to December 31, 2009 were included, except: editorial materials; corrections; letters; and biographical items. The primary outcome was the number of citations through the end of second year after publication date. Subgroup analysis included likelihood of citation (cited at least once versus no citation), journal, and year of publication. RESULTS: The search at the web of science revealed 382 articles [107 (28%) in the English Group and 275 (72%) in the Portuguese Group]. Of those, 297 (77.7%) were published at the ABO and 85 (23.3%) at the RBO. The citation counts were statistically significantly higher (P<0.001) in the English Group (1.51 - SD 1.98 - range 0 to 11) compared with the Portuguese Group (0.57 - SD 1.06 - range 0 to 7). The likelihood citation was statistically significant higher (P<0.001) in the English Group (70/107 - 65.4%) compared with the Portuguese Group (89/275 - 32.7%). There were more articles published in English at the ABO (98/297 - 32.9%) than at the RBO (9/85 - 10.6%) [P<0.001]. There were no significant difference (P=0.967) at the proportion of articles published in English at the years 2008 (48/172 - 27.9%) and 2009 (59/210 - 28.1%). CONCLUSION: The number of citations of articles published in Portuguese at Brazilian ophthalmology journals is lower than the published in English. The results of this study suggest that the editorial boards should strongly encourage the authors to adopt English as the main language in their future articles.

Relationship among malocclusion, number of occlusal pairs and mastication

This study evaluated the relationship among malocclusion, number of occlusal pairs, masticatory performance, masticatory time and masticatory ability in completely dentate subjects. Eighty healthy subjects (mean age = 19.40 ± 4.14 years) were grouped according to malocclusion diagnosis (n = 16): Class I, Class Class II-2, Class III and Normocclusion (control). Number of occlusal pairs was determined clinically. Masticatory performance was evaluated by the sieving method, and the time used for the comminute test food was registered as the masticatory time. Masticatory ability was measured by a dichotomic self-perception questionnaire. Statistical analysis was done by one-way ANOVA, ANOVA on ranks, Chi-Square and Spearman tests. Class II-1 and III malocclusion groups presented a smaller number of occlusal pairs than Normocclusion (p < 0.0001), Class I (p < 0.001) and II-2 (p < 0.0001) malocclusion groups. Class I, and III malocclusion groups showed lower masticatory performance values compared to Normocclusion (p < 0.05) and Class II-2 (p < 0.05) malocclusion groups. There were no differences in masticatory time (p = 0.156) and ability (χ2 = 3.58/p= 0.465) among groups. Occlusal pairs were associated with malocclusion (rho = 0.444/p < 0.0001) and masticatory performance (rho = 0.393/p < 0.0001), but malocclusion was not correlated with masticatory performance (rho = 0.116/p= 0.306). In conclusion, masticatory performance and ability were not related to malocclusion, and subjects with Class I, II-1 and III malocclusions presented lower masticatory performance because of their smaller number of occlusal pairs.

An analytical solution for the critical number of particles for stable bose-einstein condensation under the influence of an anisotropic potential

We have considered a Bose gas in an anisotropic potential. Applying the the Gross-Pitaevskii Equation (GPE) for a confined dilute atomic gas, we have used the methods of optimized perturbation theory and self-similar root approximants, to obtain an analytical formula for the critical number of particles as a function of the anisotropy parameter for the potential. The spectrum of the GPE is also discussed.

A descriptive analysis of the seasonal variation of physical oceanographic characteristics in the northern region of the Todos os Santos Bay (Bahia, Brazil)

The results obtained in the August and December 2003, August 2004 and January 2005 oceanographic campaigns in the northern region of the Todos os Santos Bay (lat. 12º44.5'S; long. 038º35.00'W) between the Madre de Deus and Maré islands are analyzed. Instruments of continuous and discrete samplings were used to measure hydrographic properties currents and tides. The water mass of the northern region of the bay is forced by semidiurnal and mesotides of form number 0.08 and the lunar component M2 height was estimated at 91cm. The time series of the surface currents indicated movements in the N/S direction, forced by the tide with maximum magnitudes of 0.73 m.s-1 on the December 2003 campaign. However, in August 2004 the currents were dominated by the wind stress forcing, with a maximum speed of 1.85 m.s-1 and SE direction. Near the bottom, the influence of the tide is not as evident, with a decrease in intensity due to internal and bottom friction, with a maximum velocity of 0.17 m.s-1. The thermal and haline structures were weakly horizontally, as well as vertically stratified, with extreme values varying in the intervals 23ºC (August, 2004) to 28ºC (December, 2003) and 31.0 psu (August, 2003) to 36.0 psu (December, 2003), respectively. Some conclusions may be drawn from these results: i) The signs of the dilution of the fresh water discharges of the Caípe, Mataripe and São Paulo rivers in the region under the influence of the RLAM were observed only during the winter periods, but in the summer the region was flooded by waters of oceanic origin and the salinities above 36.0 indicated TW mass intrusion; ii) The N-S circulation near the RLAM is strongly dominated by the tide, and the importance of the M2 component was unequivocal, however, the E-W component presented some tidal modulation away from abrupt bottom topographical changes, and iii) The residual series, calculated as the difference between the original and modeled, is about ¼ of the original and confirmed its semidiurnal character.

Within- and between-person variations as determinant factors to calculate the number of observations to estimate usual dietary intake of adolescents

This cross-sectional study describes the variation in the dietary intake of energy and macronutrients based on estimated coefficients of within- and between-person variation and intends to calculate the number of days required to evaluate the dietary intake of adolescents in Piracicaba, Brazil. The sample was made up by ninety-two adolescents aged between eleven and sixteen years. Interviews were performed to assess demographic, anthropometric and dietary variables, which were evaluated by the answers obtained through two 24-hour recalls. Descriptive analyses were performed and variances and Coefficients of variation within- and between-person were obtained by results of one-way ANOVA. The mean energy intake observed was 2,326.2 kilocalories; mean macronutrient intake came to 89.0 grams of fatty acids, 305.3 grams of carbohydrates and 82.2 grams of proteins. Coefficients of within-person variation ranged from 36% to 45%, while between-person coefficients varied from 26% to 31%. Variance ratios ranged from 1.35 (carbohydrate) to 2.62 (protein). The lowest number of observations required to correctly evaluate the usual diet calculated (r = 0.90) was six days, for carbohydrates while the highest was eleven, for proteins. Coefficients of variation were similar to those observed in international studies. We conclude that, in this study, two observations were sufficient to obtain reasonable correlations. However, six evaluations are necessary for these adolescents in order to obtain excellent correlations.

Fully Connected PLL Networks: How Filter Determines the Number of Nodes

Synchronization plays an important role in telecommunication systems, integrated circuits, and automation systems. Formerly, the masterslave synchronization strategy was used in the great majority of cases due to its reliability and simplicity. Recently, with the wireless networks development, and with the increase of the operation frequency of integrated circuits, the decentralized clock distribution strategies are gaining importance. Consequently, fully connected clock distribution systems with nodes composed of phase-locked loops (PLLs) appear as a convenient engineering solution. In this work, the stability of the synchronous state of these networks is studied in two relevant situations: when the node filters are first-order lag-lead low-pass or when the node filters are second-order low-pass. For first-order filters, the synchronous state of the network shows to be stable for any number of nodes. For second-order filter, there is a superior limit for the number of nodes, depending on the PLL parameters. Copyright (C) 2009 Atila Madureira Bueno et al.

Confronting dark energy models using galaxy cluster number counts

The mass function of cluster-size halos and their redshift distribution are computed for 12 distinct accelerating cosmological scenarios and confronted to the predictions of the conventional flat Lambda CDM model. The comparison with Lambda CDM is performed by a two-step process. First, we determine the free parameters of all models through a joint analysis involving the latest cosmological data, using supernovae type Ia, the cosmic microwave background shift parameter, and baryon acoustic oscillations. Apart from a braneworld inspired cosmology, it is found that the derived Hubble relation of the remaining models reproduces the Lambda CDM results approximately with the same degree of statistical confidence. Second, in order to attempt to distinguish the different dark energy models from the expectations of Lambda CDM, we analyze the predicted cluster-size halo redshift distribution on the basis of two future cluster surveys: (i) an X-ray survey based on the eROSITA satellite, and (ii) a Sunayev-Zeldovich survey based on the South Pole Telescope. As a result, we find that the predictions of 8 out of 12 dark energy models can be clearly distinguished from the Lambda CDM cosmology, while the predictions of 4 models are statistically equivalent to those of the Lambda CDM model, as far as the expected cluster mass function and redshift distribution are concerned. The present analysis suggests that such a technique appears to be very competitive to independent tests probing the late time evolution of the Universe and the associated dark energy effects.