Use and abuse of mathematical models: an illustration from the 2001 foot and mouth disease epidemic in the United Kingdom

Foot and mouth disease (FMD) is a major threat, not only to countries whose economies rely on agricultural exports, but also to industrialised countries that maintain a healthy domestic livestock industry by eliminating major infectious diseases from their livestock populations. Traditional methods of controlling diseases such as FMD require the rapid detection and slaughter of infected animals, and any susceptible animals with which they may have been in contact, either directly or indirectly. During the 2001 epidemic of FMD in the United Kingdom (UK), this approach was supplemented by a culling policy driven by unvalidated predictive models. The epidemic and its control resulted in the death of approximately ten million animals, public disgust with the magnitude of the slaughter, and political resolve to adopt alternative options, notably including vaccination, to control any future epidemics. The UK experience provides a salutary warning of how models can be abused in the interests of scientific opportunism.

Risk of foot and mouth disease associated with proximity in space and time to infected premises and the implications for control policy during the 2001 epidemic in Cumbria

An analysis was made that calculated the risk of disease for premises in the most heavily affected parts of the county of Cumbria during the foot-and-mouth disease epidemic in the UK in 2001. In over half the cases the occurrence of the disease was not directly attributable to a recently infected premises being located within 1.5 km. Premises more than 1.5 km from recently infected premises faced sufficiently high infection risks that culling within a 1.5 km radius of the infected premises alone could not have prevented the progress of the epidemic. A comparison of the final outcome in two areas of the county, south Penrith and north Cumbria, indicated that focusing on controlling the potential spread of the disease over short distances by culling premises contiguous to infected premises, while the disease continued to spread over longer distances, may have resulted in excessive numbers of premises being culled. Even though the contiguous cull in south Penrith appeared to have resulted in a smaller proportion of premises becoming infected, the overall proportion of premises culled was considerably greater than in north Cumbria, where, because of staff and resource limitations, a smaller proportion of premises contiguous to infected premises was culled

Factors required for the uridylylation of the foot-and-mouth disease virus 3B1, 3B2, and 3B3 peptides by the RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (3D(pol)) in vitro

The 5' terminus of picornavirus genomic RNA is covalently linked to the virus-encoded peptide 313 (VTg). Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) is unique in encoding and using 3 distinct forms of this peptide. These peptides each act as primers for RNA synthesis by the virus-encoded RNA polymerase 3D(pol). To act as the primer for positive-strand RNA synthesis, the 3B peptides have to be uridylylated to form VPgpU(pU). For certain picornaviruses, it has been shown that this reaction is achieved by the 3D(pol) in the presence of the 3CD precursor plus an internal RNA sequence termed a cis-acting replication element (cre). The FMDV ere has been identified previously to be within the 5' untranslated region, whereas all other picornavirus cre structures are within the viral coding region. The requirements for the in vitro uridylylation of each of the FMDV 313 peptides has now been determined, and the role of the FMDV ere (also known as the 3B-uridylylation site, or bus) in this reaction has been analyzed. The poly(A) tail does not act as a significant template for FMDV 3B uridylylation.

Efficient production of foot-and-mouth disease virus empty capsids in insect cells following down regulation of 3C protease activity

Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) is a significant economically and distributed globally pathogen of Artiodactyla. Current vaccines are chemically inactivated whole virus particles that require large-scale virus growth in strict bio-containment with the associated risks of accidental release or incomplete inactivation. Non-infectious empty capsids are structural mimics of authentic particles with no associated risk and constitute an alternate vaccine candidate. Capsids self-assemble from the processed virus structural proteins, VP0, VP3 and VP1, which are released from the structural protein precursor P1-2A by the action of the virus-encoded 3C protease. To date recombinant empty capsid assembly has been limited by poor expression levels, restricting the development of empty capsids as a viable vaccine. Here expression of the FMDV structural protein precursor P1-2A in insect cells is shown to be efficient but linkage of the cognate 3C protease to the C-terminus reduces expression significantly. Inactivation of the 3C enzyme in a P1-2A-3C cassette allows expression and intermediate levels of 3C activity resulted in efficient processing of the P1-2A precursor into the structural proteins which assembled into empty capsids. Expression was independent of the insect host cell background and leads to capsids that are recognised as authentic by a range of anti-FMDV bovine sera suggesting their feasibility as an alternate vaccine.

Structure-based energetics of protein interfaces guides foot-and-mouth disease virus vaccine design

Virus capsids are primed for disassembly, yet capsid integrity is key to generating a protective immune response. Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) capsids comprise identical pentameric protein subunits held together by tenuous noncovalent interactions and are often unstable. Chemically inactivated or recombinant empty capsids, which could form the basis of future vaccines, are even less stable than live virus. Here we devised a computational method to assess the relative stability of protein-protein interfaces and used it to design improved candidate vaccines for two poorly stable, but globally important, serotypes of FMDV: O and SAT2. We used a restrained molecular dynamics strategy to rank mutations predicted to strengthen the pentamer interfaces and applied the results to produce stabilized capsids. Structural analyses and stability assays confirmed the predictions, and vaccinated animals generated improved neutralizing-antibody responses to stabilized particles compared to parental viruses and wild-type capsids.

Foot-and-mouth disease in tropical wildlife

This review of foot-and-mouth disease in cloven-hoofed, free-living animals, describes the disease, the wide range of the hosts, the carrier state, and the interrelationship between disease in domestic livestock and wildlife. This information becomes even more crucial to the development of control strategies when linked to the process of pathogenesis and the epidemiology of the disease.

Extensive antigenic and genetic variation among foot-and-mouth disease type A viruses isolated from the 1994 and 1995 foci in São Paulo, Brazil

Nine foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) type A isolates recovered from the field FMD foci in São Paulo State, Brazil, during 1994 and 1995 (a period preceding the last reported focus of FMD in 1996 in this state) were compared among themselves and with the reference vaccine strain A(24)Cruzeiro. The techniques used were sandwich ELISA, virus neutralization (VN), polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis (PAGE) of the structural polypeptides and direct sequencing of the VP1-coding region (1D gene). Results of VN were recorded as serological relationships R and those from ELISA were expressed as percentage of the homologous reaction r. ELISA and VN gave comparable results (correlation coefficient, 0.936) allowing assignment of these field viruses to four groups which were distinct from the A(24)Cruzeiro strain. PAGE and ID nucleotide sequencing were also able to distinguish between these viruses. The high level:of genetic and antigenic variation found when comparing the A(24)Cruzeiro vaccine strain and type A strains recovered, from the last identified foci of FMD came from a formerly endemic area where vaccination with polyvalent vaccines (O(1)Campos, A(24)Cruzciro and C(3)Indaial) had been extensively applied. The similarity between the results of the serological and genetic analyses suggest that the antigenic differences found are mainly located in the 1D protein. (C) 2002 Elsevier B.V. B.V. All rights reserved.

Survey for Foot-and-mouth Disease in the Endangered Marsh Deer (Blastocerus dichotomus) from Marshlands of the Parana River Basin, Brazil

Habitat fragmentation and diseases have resulted in a decline of the marsh deer (Blastocerus (dichotomus) throughout its South American range. Our objectives were to determine whether marsh deer intended for translocation from a region of the Rio Parana Basin had been infected previously by foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) and whether they were carrying virus We captured marsh deer from June to October 1998 and collected blood from 108 animals and esophageal-pharyngeal fluid from 53 Serum was tested for antibodies against three FMDV serotypes (O, A, and C) by liquid-phase-blocking sandwich enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) Esophageal-pharyngeal fluid was tested for FMDV RNA by reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) and inoculation into three successive baby hamster kidney (BHK-21) cell subcultures, followed by RT-PCR of cultures We detected low log(10) titers (range 1 0-1 5) to FM DV subtype A(24) Cruzeiro in 19 of 108 sampled marsh deer, but failed to isolate FMDV or detect FMDV RNA in any samples we conclude that marsh deer from our study site were unlikely to carry FMDV, however, as a preventive measure, the 19 animals with titers for FMDV were not sent to FMDV-free Brazilian states

Liquid-phase blocking sandwich enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay for detection of antibodies against foot-and-mouth disease virus in water buffalo sera

Objective-To develop and apply the liquid-phase blocking sandwich ELISA (BLOCKING-ELISA) for the quantification of antibodies against foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) strains O-1 Campos, A(24) Cruzeiro, and C-3 Indaial.Design-Antibody quantification.Sample Population-158 water buffalo from various premises of São Paulo Stale-Brazil. The sera were collected either from systemically vaccinated or nonvaccinated animals.Procedure-The basic reagents of BLOCKING-ELISA (capture and detector antibodies, virus antigens, and conjugate) were prepared and the reaction was optimized and standardized to quantify water buffalo antibodies against FMDV. An alternative procedure based on mathematical interpolation was adopted to estimate more precisely the antibody 50% competition liters in the BLOCKING-ELISA. These titers were compared with the virus-neutralization test (VNT) titers to determine the correlation between these techniques. The percentages of agreement, cutoff points, and reproducibility also were determined.Results-The antibody liters obtained in the BLOCKING-ELISA had high positive correlation coefficients with VNT, reaching values of 0.90 for O-1 Campos and C-3 Indaial, and 0.82 for the A(24) Cruzeiro (P < 0.0005). The cutoff points obtained by use of the copositivity and conegativity curves allowed determination of high levels of agreement between BLOCKLNG-ELISA and VNT antibody titers against the 3 FMDV strains analyzed.Conclusions-The results characterized by high cor relation coefficients, levels of agreement, and reproducibility indicate that the BLOCKING-ELISA may replace the conventional VNT for detection and quantification of antibodies from water buffalo sera to FMDV.

RAPID COAGGLUTINATION TEST FOR THE DETECTION AND TYPING OF FOOT-AND-MOUTH-DISEASE VIRUS

Protein A containing Staphylococcus aureus was used to develop a coagglutination (COA) test for the detection and typing of foot and mouth disease virus (FMDV) O, A and C serotypes in infected cells and tissues. Different batches and amounts of guinea pig anti-FMDV sera were assessed to optimize the preparation of COA conjugates. The sensitivity and specificity of the COA Test for the detection of FMDV O, A and C serotypes and heterologous viruses was also characterized. Comparison between the COA Test and complement fixation test for the detection and typing of FMDV obtained from extracts of tongue epithelial tissues from infected cattle revealed high agreement in the results and indicated a potential application of the COA Test for the direct diagnosis of viruses.

Hand, foot, and mouth disease: A case report

Hand, foot, and mouth disease is a viral infection related to coxsackieviruses A5, A6, A9, and A10, coxsackieviruses B2 and B5, and echovirus 11. It generally affects children, but this article presents a clinical case of a young woman with hand, foot, and mouth disease. Patients with this disease have oral and skin lesions that may be confused with other diseases. The differential diagnosis is very important because both dental and medical professionals may misdiagnose the disease and sometimes prescribe an inappropriate medication.

Evaluation of the benefit of emergency vaccination in a foot-and-mouth disease free country with low livestock density

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is highly contagious and one of the most economically devastating diseases of cloven-hoofed animals. Scientific-based preparedness about how to best control the disease in a previously FMD-free country is therefore essential for veterinary services. The present study used a spatial, stochastic epidemic simulation model to compare the effectiveness of emergency vaccination with conventional (non-vaccination) control measures in Switzerland, a low-livestock density country. Model results revealed that emergency vaccination with a radius of 3 km or 10 km around infected premises (IP) did not significantly reduce either the cumulative herd incidence or epidemic duration if started in a small epidemic situation where the number of IPs is still low. However, in a situation where the epidemic has become extensive, both the cumulative herd incidence and epidemic duration are reduced significantly if vaccination were implemented with a radius of 10 km around IPs. The effect of different levels of conventional strategy measures was also explored for the non-vaccination strategy. It was found that a lower compliance level of farmers for movement restrictions and delayed culling of IPs significantly increased both the cumulative IP incidence and epidemic duration. Contingency management should therefore focus mainly on improving conventional strategies, by increasing disease awareness and communication with stakeholders and preparedness of culling teams in countries with a livestock structure similar to Switzerland; however, emergency vaccination should be considered if there are reasons to believe that the epidemic may become extensive, such as when disease detection has been delayed and many IPs are discovered at the beginning of the epidemic.

Does emergency vaccination make sense as a supporting element in control of foot-and-mouth disease in Switzerland

The outbreak of foot and mouth disease (FMD) in Great Britain in 2001 let to discussions and especially emergency vaccination was deemed as an alternative to the culling of vast numbers of healthy animals. The project emergency vaccination for FMD in Switzerland was conducted to compare the effectiveness of conventional control strategies during a FMD outbreak alone and with ring vaccination of 3 km and 10 km, respectively. The results of this project showed that emergency vaccination conducted at the beginning of an epidemic was not favorable compared to conventional disease control strategy in Switzerland. In case of an advanced FMD epidemic, a 10 km ring vaccination could support the disease control in a positive way. However, the goal of emergency vaccination to save animal live can hardly be achieved due to actual legal basis and the consequent restriction measures within vaccination zones which will lead to welfare culling.