Importance of resolution and model configuration when downscaling extreme precipitation

Dynamical downscaling is frequently used to investigate the dynamical variables of extra-tropical cyclones, for example, precipitation, using very high-resolution models nested within coarser resolution models to understand the processes that lead to intense precipitation. It is also used in climate change studies, using long timeseries to investigate trends in precipitation, or to look at the small-scale dynamical processes for specific case studies. This study investigates some of the problems associated with dynamical downscaling and looks at the optimum configuration to obtain the distribution and intensity of a precipitation field to match observations. This study uses the Met Office Unified Model run in limited area mode with grid spacings of 12, 4 and 1.5 km, driven by boundary conditions provided by the ECMWF Operational Analysis to produce high-resolution simulations for the Summer of 2007 UK flooding events. The numerical weather prediction model is initiated at varying times before the peak precipitation is observed to test the importance of the initialisation and boundary conditions, and how long the simulation can be run for. The results are compared to raingauge data as verification and show that the model intensities are most similar to observations when the model is initialised 12 hours before the peak precipitation is observed. It was also shown that using non-gridded datasets makes verification more difficult, with the density of observations also affecting the intensities observed. It is concluded that the simulations are able to produce realistic precipitation intensities when driven by the coarser resolution data.

How do atmospheric rivers form?

Identifying the source of atmospheric rivers: Are they rivers of moisture exported from the subtropics or footprints left behind by poleward travelling storms? The term atmospheric river is used to describe corridors of strong water vapor transport in the troposphere. Filaments of enhanced water vapor, commonly observed in satellite imagery extending from the subtropics to the extratropics, are routinely used as a proxy for identifying these regions of strong water vapor transport. The precipitation associated with these filaments of enhanced water vapor can lead to high impact flooding events. However, there remains some debate as to how these filaments form. In this paper we analyse the transport of water vapor within a climatology of wintertime North Atlantic extratropical cyclones. Results show that atmospheric rivers are formed by the cold front which sweeps up water vapor in the warm sector as it catches up with the warm front. This causes a narrow band of high water vapor content to form ahead of the cold front at the base of the warm conveyor belt airflow. Thus, water vapor in the cyclone's warm sector, and not long-distance transport of water vapor from the subtropics, is responsible for the generation of filaments of high water vapor content. A continuous cycle of evaporation and moisture convergence within the cyclone replenishes water vapor lost via precipitation. Thus, rather than representing a direct and continuous feed of moist air from the subtropics into the centre of a cyclone (as suggested by the term atmospheric river), these filaments are, in-fact, the result of water vapor exported from the cyclone and thus they represent the footprints left behind as cyclones travel polewards from subtropics.

O rio Paraguai no megaleque do Nabileque, sudoeste do Pantanal mato-grossense, MS

The Nabileque fluvial fan is a Quaternary depositional system located along the southwestern border of the Pantanal, covering an area of approximately 9,100 km 2. It is a peculiar alluvial system because it is not associated with inflow from adjacent plateaus. The Nabileque megafan is formed by the Paraguay River at the exit of the Pantanal wetland, coalescing with the Pilcomayo megafan of the Chaco basin. A geomorphological zonation analysis was performed making use of remote sensing data with field verification. Most of the area is a vast alluvial plain made of Pleistocene deposits, whose surface is marked by the presence of an intricate network of distributary paleochannels. Areas blanketed by Pleistocene deposits are dissected by erosional streams and subject to frequent flooding events. The Paraguay River flows in a meander belt constrained by NE fractures associated with the Transbrasiliano Lineament, but deflects towards the SSE after the Negro River confluence composing the system's peripheral drainage. An abandoned meander belt is preserved within a remarkable N-S incised-valley that is interpreted as the ancient Paraguay River course. Processes of avulsion and river capture are suggested to explain the observed changes of the river course. The Nabileque River is an underfit stream within the incised-valley, cutting paleomeanders and point bars of the previous Paraguay River course.

Evolução geomorfológica e mudanças ambientais no megaleque do Nabileque, quaternário do Pantanal mato-grossense

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Geomorfologia do megaleque do Rio Paraguai, quaternário do pantanal mato-grossense, centro-oeste do Brasil

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Sviluppo di un approccio congiunto fuzzy-Bayesiano per l'analisi e la modellizzazione degli ecosistemi: applicazione ad ecosistemi marini costieri.

Nell’attuale contesto di aumento degli impatti antropici e di “Global Climate Change” emerge la necessità di comprenderne i possibili effetti di questi sugli ecosistemi inquadrati come fruitori di servizi e funzioni imprescindibili sui quali si basano intere tessiture economiche e sociali. Lo studio previsionale degli ecosistemi si scontra con l’elevata complessità di questi ultimi in luogo di una altrettanto elevata scarsità di osservazioni integrate. L’approccio modellistico appare il più adatto all’analisi delle dinamiche complesse degli ecosistemi ed alla contestualizzazione complessa di risultati sperimentali ed osservazioni empiriche. L’approccio riduzionista-deterministico solitamente utilizzato nell’implementazione di modelli non si è però sin qui dimostrato in grado di raggiungere i livelli di complessità più elevati all’interno della struttura eco sistemica. La componente che meglio descrive la complessità ecosistemica è quella biotica in virtù dell’elevata dipendenza dalle altre componenti e dalle loro interazioni. In questo lavoro di tesi viene proposto un approccio modellistico stocastico basato sull’utilizzo di un compilatore naive Bayes operante in ambiente fuzzy. L’utilizzo congiunto di logica fuzzy e approccio naive Bayes è utile al processa mento del livello di complessità e conseguentemente incertezza insito negli ecosistemi. I modelli generativi ottenuti, chiamati Fuzzy Bayesian Ecological Model(FBEM) appaiono in grado di modellizare gli stati eco sistemici in funzione dell’ elevato numero di interazioni che entrano in gioco nella determinazione degli stati degli ecosistemi. Modelli FBEM sono stati utilizzati per comprendere il rischio ambientale per habitat intertidale di spiagge sabbiose in caso di eventi di flooding costiero previsti nell’arco di tempo 2010-2100. L’applicazione è stata effettuata all’interno del progetto EU “Theseus” per il quale i modelli FBEM sono stati utilizzati anche per una simulazione a lungo termine e per il calcolo dei tipping point specifici dell’habitat secondo eventi di flooding di diversa intensità.

Paleoenvironmental reconstructions from cave sediments of the Moravian Karst, Czech Republic / by Pavel Sroubek.

This thesis presents a paleoclimatic/paleoenvironmental study conducted on clastic cave sediments of the Moravian Karst, Czech Republic. The study is based on environmental magnetic techniques, yet a wide range of other scientific methods was used to obtain a clearer picture of the Quaternary climate. My thesis also presents an overview of the significance of cave deposits for paleoclimatic reconstructions, explains basic environmental magnetic techniques and offers background information on the study area – a famous karst region in Central Europe with a rich history. In Kulna Cave magnetic susceptibility variations and in particular variations in pedogenic susceptibility yield a detailed record of the palaeoenvironmental conditions during the Last Glacial Stage. The Kulna long-term climatic trends agree with the deep-sea SPECMAP record, while the short-term oscillations correlate with rapid changes in the North Atlantic sea surface temperatures. Kulna Cave sediments reflect the intensity of pedogenesis controlled by short-term warmer events and precipitation over the mid-continent and provide a link between continental European climate and sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic during the Last Glacial Stage. Given the number of independent climate proxies determined from the entrance facies of the cave and their high resolution, Kulna is an extremely important site for studying Late Pleistocene climate. In the interior of Spiralka Cave, a five meter high section of fine grained sediments deposited during floods yields information on the climatic and environmental conditions of the last millenium. In the upper 1.5 meters of this profile, mineral magnetic and other non-magnetic data indicate that susceptibility variations are controlled by the concentration of magnetite and its magnetic grain size. Comparison of our susceptibility record to the instrumental record of winter temperature anomalies shows a remarkable correlation. This correlation is explained by coupling of the flooding events, cultivation of land and pedogenetic processes in the cave catchment area. A combination of mineral magnetic and geochemical proxies yields a detail picture of the rapidly evolving climate of the near past and tracks both natural and human induced environmental changes taking place in the broader region.

Electron spin resonance (ESR) and 14C dating in sediments of Bonaire, Leeward Antilles

The coastal deposits of Bonaire, Leeward Antilles, are among the most studied archives for extreme-wave events (EWEs) in the Caribbean. Here we present more than 400 electron spin resonance (ESR) and radiocarbon data on coarse-clast deposits from Bonaire's eastern and western coasts. The chronological data are compared to the occurrence and age of fine-grained extreme-wave deposits detected in lagoons and floodplains. Both approaches are aimed at the identification of EWEs, the differentiation between extraordinary storms and tsunamis, improving reconstructions of the coastal evolution, and establishing a geochronological framework for the events. Although the combination of different methods and archives contributes to a better understanding of the interplay of coastal and archive-related processes, insufficient separation, superimposition or burying of coarse-clast deposits and restricted dating accuracy limit the use of both fine-grained and coarse-clast geoarchives to unravel decadal- to centennial-scale events. At several locations, distinct landforms are attributed to different coastal flooding events interpreted to be of tsunamigenic origin. Coastal landforms on the western coast have significantly been influenced by (sub)-recent hurricanes, indicating that formation of the coarse-clast deposits on the eastern coast is likely to be related to past events of higher energy.

Geochemistry, isotopic ratios, granulometry and Uk'37 derived SST of cores obtained during Poseidon cruise POS287, off Portugal

Continental and marine conditions during the last millennium off Porto, Portugal (the southern pole of the North Atlantic Oscillation, NAO), are reconstructed from a sediment archive through a high-resolution multiproxy study and instrumental evidence. Results show multidecadal variability and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) that correlate well with previously published land and sea-based Northern Hemisphere temperature records, and appear to be responding to long-term solar insolation variability. Precipitation was negatively correlated with the NAO, whereas strong flooding events occurred at times of marked climate cooling (AD 1100-1150 and 1400-1470) and transitions in solar activity. AD 1850 marks a major shift in the phytoplankton community associated with a decoupling of d18O records of 3 planktonic foraminifera species. These changes are interpreted as a response to a reduction in the summer and/or annual upwelling and more frequent fall-winter upwelling-like events. This shift's coincidence with a decrease in SST and the increase in coherence between our data and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) confirms the connection of the upwelling variability to the North Atlantic Ocean's surface and thermohaline circulation on a decadal scale. The disappearance of this agreement between the AMO and our records beyond AD 1850 and its coincidence with the beginning of the recent rise in atmospheric CO2 supports the hypothesis of a strong anthropogenic effect on the last ~150 yr of the climate record. Furthermore, it raises an important question of the use of instrumental records as the sole calibration data set for climate reconstructions, as these may not provide the best analogue for climate beyond AD 1730.

Late Pleistocene sediment record of the Maldives carbonate platform

A piston core from the Maldives carbonate platform was investigated for carbonate mineralogy, grain-size distributions, calcium carbonate content and organic carbon. The sedimentary record was linked to Late Pleistocene sea-level variations, using an age model based on oxygen isotopes obtained from planktonic foramanifera, nannofossil biostratigraphy and 14C age determinations. The correlation between the sedimentary record and Late Pleistocene sea-level showed that variations in aragonite and mud during the past 150 000 years were clearly related to flooding and sea floor exposure of the main lagoons of the atolls of the Maldives carbonate platform. Platform flooding events were characterized by strongly increased deposition of aragonite and mud within the Inner Sea of the Maldives. Exposure events, in contrast, can be recognized by rapid decreases in the values of both proxy records. The results show that sediments on the Maldives carbonate platform contain a continuous record of Pleistocene sea-level variations. These sediments may, therefore, contribute to a better understanding of regional and even global sea-level changes, and yield new insights into the interplay between ocean currents and carbonate platform morphology.

(Table 2) Radiocarbon content and 14C AMS ages of planktonic foraminifera from sediment cores Louis_1900 and Louis_2023

North American freshwater runoff records have been used to support the case that climate flickers were caused by shutdowns of the ocean thermohaline circulation (THC) resulting from reversals of meltwater discharges. Inconsistencies in the documentation of these meltwater switches, however, continue to fuel the debate on the cause/s of the oscillatory nature of the deglacial climate. New oxygen and carbon isotope records from the northern Gulf of Mexico depict in exceptional detail the succession of meltwater floods and pauses through the southern routing during the interval 16 to 8.9 ka (14C years BP; ka, kiloannum). The records underscore the bimodal role played by the Gulf of Mexico as a destination of meltwater discharges from the receding Laurentide Ice Sheet. The evidence indicates that the Gulf of Mexico acted as the principal source of superfloods at 13.4, 12.6, and 11.9 ka that reached the North Atlantic and contributed significantly to density stratification, disruption of ocean ventilation, and cold reversals. Gulf of Mexico lapsed into a "relief valve" position in post-Younger Dryas time, when meltwater discharges were rerouted south at 9.9, 9.7, 9.4, and 9.1 ka, thus temporarily interrupting North Atlantic-bound freshwater discharges from Lake Agassiz. The history of meltwater events in the Gulf of Mexico contradicts the model that meltwater flow via the eastern outlets into the North Atlantic disrupted the ocean THC, causing cooling, while diversions to the Gulf of Mexico via the Mississippi River enhanced THC and warming.

Granulometry, mineralogy and organic matter content of permafrost core 5011-3

The combination of permafrost history and dynamics, lake level changes and the tectonical framework is considered to play a crucial role for sediment delivery to El'gygytgyn Crater Lake, NE Russian Arctic. The purpose of this study is to propose a depositional framework based on analyses of the core strata from the lake margin and historical reconstructions from various studies at the site. A sedimentological program has been conducted using frozen core samples from the 141.5 m long El'gygytgyn 5011-3 permafrost well. The drill site is located in sedimentary permafrost west of the lake that partly fills the El'gygytgyn Crater. The total core sequence is interpreted as strata building up a progradational alluvial fan delta. Four macroscopically distinct sedimentary units are identified. Unit 1 (141.5-117.0 m) is comprised of ice-cemented, matrix-supported sandy gravel and intercalated sandy layers. Sandy layers represent sediments which rained out as particles in the deeper part of the water column under highly energetic conditions. Unit 2 (117.0-24.25 m) is dominated by ice-cemented, matrix-supported sandy gravel with individual gravel layers. Most of the Unit 2 diamicton is understood to result from alluvial wash and subsequent gravitational sliding of coarse-grained (sandy gravel) material on the basin slope. Unit 3 (24.25-8.5 m) has ice-cemented, matrix-supported sandy gravel that is interrupted by sand beds. These sandy beds are associated with flooding events and represent near-shore sandy shoals. Unit 4 (8.5-0.0 m) is ice-cemented, matrix-supported sandy gravel with varying ice content, mostly higher than below. It consists of slope material and creek fill deposits. The uppermost metre is the active layer (i.e. the top layer of soil with seasonal freeze and thaw) into which modern soil organic matter has been incorporated. The nature of the progradational sediment transport taking place from the western and northern crater margins may be related to the complementary occurrence of frequent turbiditic layers in the central lake basin, as is known from the lake sediment record. Slope processes such as gravitational sliding and sheet flooding occur especially during spring melt and promote mass wasting into the basin. Tectonics are inferred to have initiated the fan accumulation in the first place and possibly the off-centre displacement of the crater lake.

Duration of a flood along a plant diversity gradient in the Jena Experiment (Main Experiment, June 2013)

The Jena Biodiversity Experiment is located on a Central European mesophilic floodplain on the banks of the Saale River (see further details below). In the main experiment, 82 grassland plots of 20 x 20 m were established from a pool of 60 species belonging to four functional groups (grasses, legumes, tall and small herbs). In May 2002, varying numbers of plant species from this species pool were sown in the plots to create a gradient of plant species richness (1, 2, 4, 8, 16 and 60 species) and functional richness (1, 2, 3, or 4 functional groups). Plots were maintained by bi-annual weeding and mowing. In June 2013, a natural 200-year flood event occurred at the field site. Rainfall in May 2013 in Jena was ~150mm, constituting >25% of annual precipitation at the site that year. Overall the flood affected the entire Elbe River Basin and much of Europe and was one of the largest natural flooding events in the past two centuries. The flood lasted for a total of 24 days at the site (30 May-24 June) and led to anaerobic soil conditions. Due to small topographical differences among the plots in the experiment (<1m), there was variation in the duration of flooding and the proportion of each plot that was flooded. This variation was well-distributed across the diversity gradient. To assess the importance of flood severity, the proportion of each plot that was flooded was estimated by eye (using five classes: 0 completely dry, 0.25 up to a quarter under water, 0.5 half, 0.75 up to three quarters under water, and 1 more than three quarters under water up to completely submerged). These values, for each of the 24 days that the flood lasted, were summed up to calculate a flooding index. The resulting flooding index is given for each plot of the Main Experiment.

Amphibious City: Sustainable Adaptations to Sea Level Rise in Seattle’s Interbay Area

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-06

A sunburnt country – storms, surges and sea levels : of insurance and flooding rains

Increasing population pressures and life-style choices are resulting in more people living in areas that are at risk of inundation from rising sea levels and flooding. However, following natural disaster events, such as the 2011 Queensland floods, many Australians discovered they were uninsured. Either their insurance policies did not cover flood; or multiple (and confusing) water-related definitions led them to believe they had cover when they did not. Several theories are analysed to try to explain what is a world-wide underinsurance problem but these do not provide an answer to the problem. This research focuses on uncovering the reasons consumers fail to adequately insure for flood and other water-related events. Recent Australian legislative attempts to overcome insureds’ confusion of water related definitions are examined for this purpose. The authors conclude that Australian and other) legislators should set a maximum premium for a minimum amount of flood and sea related cover; and restrict the building and style of homes in flood prone areas.