Non-thermal transitions in a model inspired by moral decisions

This work introduces a model in which agents of a network act upon one another according to three different kinds of moral decisions. These decisions are based on an increasing level of sophistication in the empathy capacity of the agent, a hierarchy which we name Piaget's ladder. The decision strategy of the agents is non-rational, in the sense they are arbitrarily fixed, and the model presents quenched disorder given by the distribution of its defining parameters. An analytical solution for this model is obtained in the large system limit as well as a leading order correction for finite-size systems which shows that typical realisations of the model develop a phase structure with both continuous and discontinuous non-thermal transitions.

Monitoring and model updating of an FRP pedestrian truss bridge

This paper presents the results of a real bridge field experiment, carried out on a fiber reinforced polymer (FRP) pedestrian truss bridge of which nodes are reinforced with stainless steel plates. The aim of this paper is to identify the dynamic parameters of this bridge by using both conventional techniques and a model updating algorithm. In the field experiment, the bridge was instrumented with accelerometers at a number of locations on the bridge deck, recording both vertical and transverse vibrations. It was excited via jump tests at particular locations along its span and the resulting acceleration signals are used to identify dynamic parameters, such as the bridge mode shape, natural frequency and damping constant. Pedestrianinduced vibrations are also measured and utilized to identify dynamic parameters of the bridge. For a complete analysis of the bridge, a numerical model of the FRP bridge is created whose properties are calibrated utilizing a model updating algorithm. Comparable frequencies and mode shapes to those from the experiment were obtained by the FE models considering the reinforcement by increasing elastic modulus at every node of the bridge by stainless steel plate. Moreover, considering boundary conditions at both ends as fixed in the model resulted in modal properties comparable/similar to those from the experiment. This study also demonstrated that the effect of reinforcement and boundary conditions must be properly considered in an FE model to analyze real behavior of the FRP bridge.

Inverse analysis FOR two-dimensional structures using the boundary element method

Inverse analysis is currently an important subject of study in several fields of science and engineering. The identification of physical and geometric parameters using experimental measurements is required in many applications. In this work a boundary element formulation to identify boundary and interface values as well as material properties is proposed. In particular the proposed formulation is dedicated to identifying material parameters when a cohesive crack model is assumed for 2D problems. A computer code is developed and implemented using the BEM multi-region technique and regularisation methods to perform the inverse analysis. Several examples are shown to demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed model. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved,

Evolution of stress deficit and changing rates of seismicity in cellular automaton models of earthquake faults

We investigate the internal dynamics of two cellular automaton models with heterogeneous strength fields and differing nearest neighbour laws. One model is a crack-like automaton, transferring ail stress from a rupture zone to the surroundings. The other automaton is a partial stress drop automaton, transferring only a fraction of the stress within a rupture zone to the surroundings. To study evolution of stress, the mean spectral density. f(k(r)) of a stress deficit held is: examined prior to, and immediately following ruptures in both models. Both models display a power-law relationship between f(k(r)) and spatial wavenumber (k(r)) of the form f(k(r)) similar tok(r)(-beta). In the crack model, the evolution of stress deficit is consistent with cyclic approach to, and retreat from a critical state in which large events occur. The approach to criticality is driven by tectonic loading. Short-range stress transfer in the model does not affect the approach to criticality of broad regions in the model. The evolution of stress deficit in the partial stress drop model is consistent with small fluctuations about a mean state of high stress, behaviour indicative of a self-organised critical system. Despite statistics similar to natural earthquakes these simplified models lack a physical basis. physically motivated models of earthquakes also display dynamical complexity similar to that of a critical point system. Studies of dynamical complexity in physical models of earthquakes may lead to advancement towards a physical theory for earthquakes.

Accelerating seismic energy release and evolution of event time and size statistics: Results from two heterogeneous cellular automaton models

The evolution of event time and size statistics in two heterogeneous cellular automaton models of earthquake behavior are studied and compared to the evolution of these quantities during observed periods of accelerating seismic energy release Drier to large earthquakes. The two automata have different nearest neighbor laws, one of which produces self-organized critical (SOC) behavior (PSD model) and the other which produces quasi-periodic large events (crack model). In the PSD model periods of accelerating energy release before large events are rare. In the crack model, many large events are preceded by periods of accelerating energy release. When compared to randomized event catalogs, accelerating energy release before large events occurs more often than random in the crack model but less often than random in the PSD model; it is easier to tell the crack and PSD model results apart from each other than to tell either model apart from a random catalog. The evolution of event sizes during the accelerating energy release sequences in all models is compared to that of observed sequences. The accelerating energy release sequences in the crack model consist of an increase in the rate of events of all sizes, consistent with observations from a small number of natural cases, however inconsistent with a larger number of cases in which there is an increase in the rate of only moderate-sized events. On average, no increase in the rate of events of any size is seen before large events in the PSD model.

A rentabilidade das indústrias nacionais de cortiça: na ótica da gestão de tesouraria.

Dissertação de Mestrado Apresentado ao Instituto de Contabilidade e Administração do Porto para a obtenção do grau de Mestre em Contabilidade e Finanças, sob orientação de Mestre Adalmiro Álvaro Malheiro de Castro Andrade Pereira.

Determinantes da escolha do modelo de revalorização na mensuração subsequente dos ativos fixos tangíveis em Portugal e no Brasil

Dissertação de Mestrado apresentada ao Instituto de Contabilidade e Administração do Porto para a obtenção do grau de Mestre em Contabilidade e Finanças, sob orientação da Professora Doutora Cláudia Maria Ferreira Pereira

Under the veil of citations

Academics are often ranked on citation counts’, which is considered an adequate proxy for author's quality and reputation. This paper seeks to find what is behind a cited academic / a cited article. We constructed a rich dataset from Portuguese affiliated economists and use zero inflated negative binomial model. This procedure is appropriate for count outcomes, correcting for overdispersion and excess zeros. We also use a fixed effect poisson model to accomodate authors' unobserved heterogeneity. We analyze results in detail comparing with existing literature and making some theoretical considerations around.

Weighted Kernel regression

In the fixed design regression model, additional weights areconsidered for the Nadaraya--Watson and Gasser--M\"uller kernel estimators.We study their asymptotic behavior and the relationships between new andclassical estimators. For a simple family of weights, and considering theIMSE as global loss criterion, we show some possible theoretical advantages.An empirical study illustrates the performance of the weighted estimatorsin finite samples.

Resting heart rate and the risk of heart failure in healthy adults: the rotterdam study.

Background- An elevated resting heart rate is associated with rehospitalization for heart failure and is a modifiable risk factor in heart failure patients. We aimed to examine the association between resting heart rate and incident heart failure in a population-based cohort study of healthy adults without pre-existing overt heart disease. Methods and Results- We studied 4768 men and women aged ≥55 years from the population-based Rotterdam Study. We excluded participants with prevalent heart failure, coronary heart disease, pacemaker, atrial fibrillation, atrioventricular block, and those using β-blockers or calcium channel blockers. We used extended Cox models allowing for time-dependent variation of resting heart rate along follow-up. During a median of 14.6 years of follow-up, 656 participants developed heart failure. The risk of heart failure was higher in men with higher resting heart rate. For each increment of 10 beats per minute, the multivariable adjusted hazard ratios in men were 1.16 (95% confidence interval, 1.05-1.28; P=0.005) in the time-fixed heart rate model and 1.13 (95% confidence interval, 1.02-1.25; P=0.017) in the time-dependent heart rate model. The association could not be demonstrated in women (P for interaction=0.004). Censoring participants for incident coronary heart disease or using time-dependent models to account for the use of β-blockers or calcium channel blockers during follow-up did not alter the results. Conclusions- Baseline or persistent higher resting heart rate is an independent risk factor for the development of heart failure in healthy older men in the general population.

The temperature response to stratospheric water vapour changes

This study uses an analytical model, based on the cooling-to-space approximation, and a fixed dynamical heating model to investigate the structure of the stratospheric cooling that occurs in response to a uniform increase in stratospheric water vapour (SWV). At all latitudes, the largest cooling occurs in the lower stratosphere and decreases in magnitude with height. The cooling is strongly enhanced in the Extratropics compared to the Tropics. This is markedly different to the case of an increase in CO2, which causes maximum cooling near the stratopause and a small warming in the tropical lower stratosphere. The qualitative differences in the structure of the cooling can be explained by the smaller opacity of water vapour bands in the stratosphere compared to CO2. The small opacity means that the magnitude of the initial heating rate perturbation only decreases by a factor of four between the upper and lower stratosphere for a SWV perturbation. Therefore, to balance the heating rate perturbation, the largest temperature change is required in the lower stratosphere. Increasing the background concentration of SWV causes the water vapour bands to become more opaque. For a SWV perturbation applied to a background SWV concentration ≥30 ppmv, the heating rate perturbation and temperature change structurally resemble those from an increase in CO2. In the Extratropics, the lower height of the tropopause is found to cause the enhancement in the cooling at those latitudes. By controlling the depth of atmosphere which adjusts to the SWV perturbation, the tropopause height affects the net exchange of radiation between the layers in the stratosphere as they cool. The latitudinal gradient in upwelling infrared radiation at the tropopause and variations in the background temperature are found to have only a minor effect on the structure of the stratospheric temperature response to a change in SWV.

Stratospheric heating by potential geoengineering aerosols

A fixed dynamical heating model is used to investigate the pattern of zonal-mean stratospheric temperature change resulting from geoengineering with aerosols composed of sulfate, titania, limestone and soot. Aerosol always heats the tropical lower stratosphere, but at the poles the response can be either heating, cooling, or neutral. The sign of the change in stratospheric Pole-Equator temperature difference depends on aerosol type, size and season. This has implications for modelling geoengineering impacts and the response of the stratospheric circulation.

Data assimilation for state and parameter estimation: application to morphodynamic modelling

Data assimilation is predominantly used for state estimation; combining observational data with model predictions to produce an updated model state that most accurately approximates the true system state whilst keeping the model parameters fixed. This updated model state is then used to initiate the next model forecast. Even with perfect initial data, inaccurate model parameters will lead to the growth of prediction errors. To generate reliable forecasts we need good estimates of both the current system state and the model parameters. This paper presents research into data assimilation methods for morphodynamic model state and parameter estimation. First, we focus on state estimation and describe implementation of a three dimensional variational(3D-Var) data assimilation scheme in a simple 2D morphodynamic model of Morecambe Bay, UK. The assimilation of observations of bathymetry derived from SAR satellite imagery and a ship-borne survey is shown to significantly improve the predictive capability of the model over a 2 year run. Here, the model parameters are set by manual calibration; this is laborious and is found to produce different parameter values depending on the type and coverage of the validation dataset. The second part of this paper considers the problem of model parameter estimation in more detail. We explain how, by employing the technique of state augmentation, it is possible to use data assimilation to estimate uncertain model parameters concurrently with the model state. This approach removes inefficiencies associated with manual calibration and enables more effective use of observational data. We outline the development of a novel hybrid sequential 3D-Var data assimilation algorithm for joint state-parameter estimation and demonstrate its efficacy using an idealised 1D sediment transport model. The results of this study are extremely positive and suggest that there is great potential for the use of data assimilation-based state-parameter estimation in coastal morphodynamic modelling.

Novo método para estimativa do gradiente de fratura para poços de petróleo

The development of oil wells drilling requires additional cares mainly if the drilling is in offshore ultra deep water with low overburden pressure gradients which cause low fracture gradients and, consequently, difficult the well drilling by the reduction of the operational window. To minimize, in the well planning phases, the difficulties faced by the drilling in those sceneries, indirect models are used to estimate fracture gradient that foresees approximate values for leakoff tests. These models generate curves of geopressures that allow detailed analysis of the pressure behavior for the whole well. Most of these models are based on the Terzaghi equation, just differentiating in the determination of the values of rock tension coefficient. This work proposes an alternative method for prediction of fracture pressure gradient based on a geometric correlation that relates the pressure gradients proportionally for a given depth and extrapolates it for the whole well depth, meaning that theses parameters vary in a fixed proportion. The model is based on the application of analytical proportion segments corresponding to the differential pressure related to the rock tension. The study shows that the proposed analytical proportion segments reaches values of fracture gradient with good agreement with those available for leakoff tests in the field area. The obtained results were compared with twelve different indirect models for fracture pressure gradient prediction based on the compacting effect. For this, a software was developed using Matlab language. The comparison was also made varying the water depth from zero (onshore wellbores) to 1500 meters. The leakoff tests are also used to compare the different methods including the one proposed in this work. The presented work gives good results for error analysis compared to other methods and, due to its simplicity, justify its possible application

Caracterização geológico-geofísica do meio aqüífero fissural : uma contribuição aos modelos de fluxo e armazenamento de água subterrânea

Northeastern Brazil is mainly formed by crystalline terrains (around 60% in area). Moreover, this region presents a semi-arid climate so that it is periodically subject to drought seasons. Furthermore, ground water quality extracted fromwells usually presents poor quality because of their high salinity contents. Nevertheless, ground water is still a very important source of water for human and animal consumption in this region. Well sitting in hard rocks terrains in Northeastern Brazil offers a mean success index of aboul 60%, given that a successful siting is defined by a well producing at least 0.5 m³/h. This low index reveals lack of knowledga about the true conditions of storage and percolation of ground water in crystalline rocks. Two models for structures storing and producing ground water in crystalline rocks in Northeastem Brazil have been proposed in the literature. The first model,tradnionally used for well sitting since the sixties are controlled by faults or fractures zones. This model is commonly referred, in Brazilian hydrogeological literature, as the "creek-crack" model (riacho-fenda in Portuguese). Sites appearing to present dense drainage network are preferred for water well siting - particularly at points where the drainages cross-cul each other. Field follow up work is usually based only on geological criteria. The second model is the "eluvio-alluvial through" (calha eluvio-aluvionar in Portuguese); it is also described in the literature but it is not yet incorporated in well sitting practice. This model is based on the hypothesis that reclilinear drainages can also be controlled by the folietion of the rock. Eventually, depending upon the degree of weathering, a through-shaped structure filled with sediments (alluvium and regolith) can be developed which can store and water can be produced from. Using severalfield case studies, this Thesis presents a thorough analysis ofthe two above cited models and proposes a new model. The analysis is based on an integrated methodological approach using geophysics and structural geology. Both land (Resitiviy and Ground Penetrating Radar- GPR) and aerogeophysical (magnetics and frequency domain eletromagnetics) surveys were used. Slructural analysis emphasized neolectonic aspects; in general, itwas found that fractures in the E-W direction are relatively open, as compared to fracturas inthe N-S direction, probably because E-W fractures were opened by the neotectonic stress regime in Northeastern Brazil, which is controlled by E-W compression and N-S extension. The riacho-fenda model is valid where drainages are controlled by fractures. The degree of fracturing and associated weathering dictale the hydrogeological potential of the structure. Field work in structural analogues reveals that subvertical fractures show consistent directions both in outcrop and aerophotograph scales. Geophysical surveys reveal subvertical conductive anomalies associated to the fracture network controlling the drainage; one of the borders of the conductive anomaly usually coincide wih the drainage. An aspect of particular importance to the validation of fracture control are the possible presence of relalively deep conductive anomalies wihoul continuation or propagalion to the surface. The conductive nature of lhe anomaly is due to the presence of wealhered rock and sedirnenls (alluvium and/or regolilh) storing ground waler which occur associated to the fracture network. Magnetic surveys are not very sensisnive to these structures.lf soil or covering sedirnents are resislive (> 100 Ohm.m), GPR can ba used to image precisely lhe fracture network. A major limialion of riacho-fenda model, revealed by GPR images, is associated to the fact thal subhorizontal fractures do play a very important role in connecting the fracture network, besides connect shallow recharge zones to relalively deep subvertical frecture zones. Iffractures play just a secondary control on the drainage, however, r/acho-fenda model may have a very limiled validny; in these cases, large portions oflhe drainage do nol coincide wilh frectures and mosl oflhewells localed in lhe drainage surrounding would resull dry. Usually, a secondary conlrol on lhe drainage by Ihefraclure networkcan be revealed only wilh detailed geophysical survey. The calha elClv1o-aluvlonarmodel is valid where drainages are conlrolled by folialion. The degree 01 wealhering 01 lhe lolialion planes dictales lhe hydrogeological polenlial 01 lhe slruclure. Outcrop analysis reveals Ihal lolialion and drainage direclions are parallel and Ihal no Iraclures, orfraclures wilh diflerent directions 01 lhe drainage direclion occur. Geophysical surveys reveal conduclive anomalies in a slab lorm associaled 10 lhe Ihrough 01 lhe wealhered rock and sedimenls (alluvium and/or regolith). Magnelic surveys can ofler a very good conlrol on lolialion direclion. An importanl aspect 10 validale lolialion conlrol are lhe presence 01 conductive anomalies showing shallow and deep portions area which are linked. Illhere is an exlensive soil cover, r/acho-fenda and calha eIClv1o-aluv/onar conlrols can be easily misinlerpreled in lhe absence 01 geophysical conlrol. Certainly, Ihis lacl could explain at leasl a part of lhe failure index in well sitting. The model wealhering sack (bolsllo de Intempertsmo in Portuguese) is proposed to explain cases where a very inlensive wealhering occur over lhe crystalline rock so Ihal a secondary inlerslilial porosity is crealed. The waler is Ihen stored in lhe porous of lhe regolilh in a similar mannerlo sedimentary rocks. A possible example ofthis model was delecled by using land geophysical survey where a relalivelyvery deep isolaled conduclive anomaly, in a slab form, was delected. Iflhis structure does store ground waler, certainly Ihere must be a link 01 lhe deep slructure wilh lhe surface in orderlo provide walerfeeding. This model mighl explain anomalous waler yields as greal as 50 m³/h Ihalsomelimescan occur in crystalline rocks in Northeaslern Brazil