The impact of exchange-rate and trade policy on export performance in the 1980s

Includes bibliography

Exchange-rate variations and the rate of inflation in emerging economies

This paper develops a structural general equilibrium model to analyse the reactions of the nominal exchange rate and the domestic price level to three types of external shock in emerging economies that have limited access to world capital markets. Although the results depend crucially on the type of external shock, each of the two national balance-sheet parameters considered here —the risk premium and the ratio of external indebtedness— exacerbates the reactions of the two endogenous variables without altering the degree of exchange-rate pass-through (erpt). Moreover, flatter Phillips curves, as observed today in many economies, tend to increase erpt. On the basis of these results, the authorities of emerging economies seeking to stabilize markets and limit erpt are advised to minimize the two risk parameters by applying a flexible inflation-targeting regime.

The Effect of Exchange Rate Volatility on International Trade: The Implication for Production Networks in East Asia

This paper is an empirical investigation of the relationship between exchange rate volatility and international trade, focusing on East Asia. It finds that intra-East Asian trade is discouraged by exchange rate volatility more seriously than trade in other regions because intermediate goods trade in production networks, which is quite sensitive to exchange rate volatility compared with other types of trade, occupies a significant fraction of trade. In addition, this negative effect of volatility is mainly induced by the unanticipated volatility and has an even greater impact than that of tariffs.

The cellulose-binding domain of the major cellobiohydrolase of Trichoderma reesei exhibits true reversibility and a high exchange rate on crystalline cellulose.

Cellulose-binding domains (CBDs) bind specifically to cellulose, and form distinct domains of most cellulose degrading enzymes. The CBD-mediated binding of the enzyme has a fundamental role in the hydrolysis of the solid cellulose substrate. In this work we have investigated the reversibility and kinetics of the binding of the CBD from Trichoderma reesei cellobiohydrolase I on microcrystalline cellulose. The CBD was produced in Escherichia coli, purified, and radioactively labeled by reductive alkylation with 3H. Sensitive detection of the labeled CBD allowed more detailed analysis of its behavior than has been possible before, and important novel features were resolved. Binding of the CBD was found to be temperature sensitive, with an increased affinity at lower temperatures. The interaction of the CBD with cellulose was shown to be fully reversible and the CBD could be eluted from cellulose by simple dilution. The rate of exchange measured for the CBD-cellulose interaction compares well with the hydrolysis rate of cellobiohydrolase I, which is consistent with its proposed mode of action as a processive exoglucanase.

On the forecast accuracy and consistency of exchange rate expectations: The Spanish PwC Survey.

We examine the predictive ability and consistency properties of exchange rate expectations for the dollar/euro using a survey conducted in Spain by PwC among a panel of experts and entrepreneurs. Our results suggest that the PwC panel have some forecasting ability for time horizons from 3 to 9 months, although only for the 3-month ahead expectations we obtain marginal evidence of unbiasedness and efficiency in the forecasts. As for the consistency properties of the exchange rate expectations formation process, we find that survey participants form stabilising expectations in the short-run and destabilising expectations in the long- run and that the expectation formation process is closer to fundamentalists than chartists.

EU-Mercosur trade relations: impacts of exchange rate misalignments on tariffs. CEPS Working Document No. 372, February 2013

The issue of “trade and exchange rate misalignments” is being discussed at the G20, IMF and WTO, following an initiative by Brazil. The main purpose of this paper is to apply the methodology developed by the authors to exam the impacts of misalignment on tariffs in order to analyse the impacts of misalignments on the trade relations between two customs unions – the EU and Mercosur, as well as to explain how tariff barriers are affected. It is divided into several sections: the first summarises the debate on exchange rates at the WTO; the second explains the methodology used to determine exchange rate misalignments; the third and fourth summarises the methodology applied to calculate the impacts of exchange rate misalignments on the level of tariff protection through an exercise of ‘misalignment tariffication’; the fifth reviews the effects of exchange rate misalignments on tariffs and its consequences for the trade negotiations between the two areas; and the last concludes and suggests a way to move the debate forward in the context of regional arrangements.

Natural Hedging of Exchange Rate Risk: The Role of Imported Input Prices

In this paper, we estimate ERPT into imported input prices and export prices using disaggregated quarterly trade data for Switzerland over 2004–2011. We find evidence for high pass-through rates into imported input prices. This demonstrates the effectiveness of natural hedging. On the export side, ERPT exhibits substantial sectoral heterogeneity and changes in imported input costs are not transmitted to foreign consumers in most cases. This suggests the use of cheaper imported inputs to offset adverse effects of currency appreciation on export profit margins.

Principles of banks and banking of money, as coin and paper : with the consequences of any excessive issue on the national currency, course of exchange, price of provisions, commodities, and fixed incomes ... /

Goldsmiths' Lib. cat.

Dynamic models of exchange rate dependence using option prices and historical returns

Models for the conditional joint distribution of the U.S. Dollar/Japanese Yen and Euro/Japanese Yen exchange rates, from November 2001 until June 2007, are evaluated and compared. The conditional dependency is allowed to vary across time, as a function of either historical returns or a combination of past return data and option-implied dependence estimates. Using prices of currency options that are available in the public domain, risk-neutral dependency expectations are extracted through a copula repre- sentation of the bivariate risk-neutral density. For this purpose, we employ either the one-parameter \Normal" or a two-parameter \Gumbel Mixture" specification. The latter provides forward-looking information regarding the overall degree of covariation, as well as, the level and direction of asymmetric dependence. Specifications that include option-based measures in their information set are found to outperform, in-sample and out-of-sample, models that rely solely on historical returns.

Az árfolyamsávok empirikus modelljei és a devizaárfolyam sávon belüli előrejelezhetetlensége = Empirical models of exchange rate target zones

A sávosan rögzített devizaárfolyamok elméleti és gyakorlati vizsgálatai a nemzetközi közgazdaságtan egyik legnépszerűbb témaköre volt a kilencvenes évek elején. A gyakorlati módszerek közül az alkalmazások és hivatkozások száma tekintetében az úgynevezett eltolódással igazítás módszere emelkedett ki. A módszert alkalmazó szerzők szerint amíg a lebegő árfolyamú devizák előrejelzése céltalan feladatnak tűnik, addig sávos árfolyam esetén az árfolyam sávon belüli helyzetének előrejelzése sikeresen végezhető. E tanulmány bemutatja, hogy az Európai Monetáris Rendszer és az északeurópai államok sávos árfolyamrendszereinél e módszer alkalmazásával adódott eredmények például a lebegő árfolyamú amerikai dollárra és az egységgyökfolyamatok többségére is érvényesek. A tanulmány feltárja e látszólagos ellentmondás okait, és bemutat egy olyan, a sávos árfolyamrendszerek főbb megfigyelt jellemzőire épülő modellt, amelynek keretei között a sávon belüli árfolyam előrejelzése nem feltétlenül lehetséges, mert a leértékelés előtti időszakban a sávon belüli árfolyam alakulása kaotikus lehet. / === / Following the development of the first exchange rate target zone model at the end of the eighties dozens of papers analyzed theoretical and empirical topics of currency bands. This paper reviews different empirical methods to analyze the credibility of the band and lays special emphasis on the most widely used method, the so-called drift-adjustment method. Papers applying that method claim that while forecasting a freely floating currency is hopeless, predicting an exchange rate within the future band is successful. This paper shows that the results achieved by applications to EMS and Nordic currencies are not specific to data of target zone currencies. For example, application to US dollar and even to most unit root processes leads qualitatively to the same. This paper explores the solutions of this puzzle and shows a model of target zones in which the exchange rate within the band is not necessarily predictable since the process might follow chaotic dynamics before devaluation.

Rate of Belowground Carbon Allocation Differs with Successional Habit of Two Afromontane Trees

Background: Anthropogenic disturbance of old-growth tropical forests increases the abundance of early successional tree species at the cost of late successional ones. Quantifying differences in terms of carbon allocation and the proportion of recently fixed carbon in soil CO2 efflux is crucial for addressing the carbon footprint of creeping degradation. Methodology: We compared the carbon allocation pattern of the late successional gymnosperm Podocarpus falcatus (Thunb.) Mirb. and the early successional (gap filling) angiosperm Croton macrostachyus Hochst. es Del. in an Ethiopian Afromontane forest by whole tree (CO2)-C-13 pulse labeling. Over a one-year period we monitored the temporal resolution of the label in the foliage, the phloem sap, the arbuscular mycorrhiza, and in soil-derived CO2. Further, we quantified the overall losses of assimilated C-13 with soil CO2 efflux. Principal Findings: C-13 in leaves of C. macrostachyus declined more rapidly with a larger size of a fast pool (64% vs. 50% of the assimilated carbon), having a shorter mean residence time (14 h vs. 55 h) as in leaves of P. falcatus. Phloem sap velocity was about 4 times higher for C. macrostachyus. Likewise, the label appeared earlier in the arbuscular mycorrhiza of C. macrostachyus and in the soil CO2 efflux as in case of P. falcatus (24 h vs. 72 h). Within one year soil CO2 efflux amounted to a loss of 32% of assimilated carbon for the gap filling tree and to 15% for the late successional one. Conclusions: Our results showed clear differences in carbon allocation patterns between tree species, although we caution that this experiment was unreplicated. A shift in tree species composition of tropical montane forests (e. g., by degradation) accelerates carbon allocation belowground and increases respiratory carbon losses by the autotrophic community. If ongoing disturbance keeps early successional species in dominance, the larger allocation to fast cycling compartments may deplete soil organic carbon in the long run.

A Comparison of Bimatoprost 0.03% Versus the Fixed-Combination of Latanotoprost 0.005% and Timolol 0.5% in Adult Patients With Elevated Intraocular Pressure: An Eight-Week, Randomized, Open-Label Trial

Introduction and Purpose: Bimatoprost and the fixed combination of latanoprost with timolol maleate are 2 medications widely used to treat glaucoma and ocular hypertension (OHT). The aim of the study is to compare the efficacy of these 2 drugs in reducing intraocular pressure (IOP) after 8 weeks of treatment in patients with primary open angle glaucoma (POAG) or OHT. Methods: In this randomized, open-label trial, 44 patients with POAG or OHT were allocated to receive either bimatoprost (1 drop QD) or latanoprost/timolol (1 drop QD). Primary outcome was the mean diurnal IOP measurement at the 8th week, calculated as the mean IOP measurements taken at 8:00 AM, 10: 00 AM, and 12: 00 PM Secondary outcomes included the baseline change in IOP measured 3 times a day, after the water-drinking test (performed after the last IOP measurement), and the assessment of side effects of each therapy. Results: The mean IOP levels of latanoprost/timolol (13.83, SD = 2.54) was significantly lower than of bimatoprost (16.16, SD = 3.28; P < 0.0001) at week 8. Also, the change in mean IOP values was significantly higher in the latanoprost/timolol group at 10:00 AM (P = 0.013) and 12:00 PM (P = 0.01), but not at 8: 00 AM (P = ns). During the water-drinking test, there was no signifi cant difference in IOP increase (absolute and percentage) between groups; however, there was a signifi cant decrease in mean heart rate in the latanoprost/timolol group. Finally, no signifi cant changes in blood pressure and lung spirometry were observed in either groups. Conclusions: The fixed combination of latanoprost/timolol was significantly superior to bimatoprost alone in reducing IOP in patients with POAG or OHT. Further studies with large sample sizes should be taken to support the superior efficacy of latanoprost/timolol, as well as to better assess its profile of side effects.

Vitrification with Glutamine Improves Maturation Rate of Vitrified/Warmed Immature Bovine Oocytes

Contents The current study examined the protective effects of l-glutamine and cytochalasin B during vitrification of immature bovine oocytes. Oocyte vitrification solution (PBS supplemented with 10% FCS, 25% EG, 25% DMSO and 0.5 m trehalose) was the vitrification control. Treatments were the addition of 7 mu g/ml cytochalasin B, 80 mm glutamine or both cytochalasin and glutaminine for 30 s. After warming, oocytes were matured in vitro for 24 h, fixed and stained with Hoechst (33342) for nuclear maturation evaluation. l-glutamine improved the vitrified/warmed immature bovine oocytes viability (32.8%), increasing the nuclear maturation rates compared to other treatments and the no treatment vitrified control (17.4%). There was, however, no effect of cytochalasin B on in vitro maturation (14.4%).