The poor stay poor: Non-convergence across countries and regions

We study the issue of income convergence across countries and regions witha Bayesian estimator which allows us to use information in an efficient andflexible way. We argue that the very slow convergence rates to a commonlevel of per-capita income found, e.g., by Barro and Xavier Sala-i-Martin,is due to a 'fixed effect bias' that their cross-sectional analysisintroduces in the results. Our approach permits the estimation of differentconvergence rates to different steady states for each cross sectional unit.When this diversity is allowed, we find that convergence of each unit to(its own) steady state income level is much faster than previously estimatedbut that cross sectional differences persist: inequalities will only bereduced by a small amount by the passage of time. The cross countrydistribution of the steady state is largely explained by the cross countrydistribution of initial conditions.

Biomedical risk assessment as an aid for smoking cessation.

BACKGROUND: A possible strategy for increasing smoking cessation rates could be to provide smokers who have contact with healthcare systems with feedback on the biomedical or potential future effects of smoking, e.g. measurement of exhaled carbon monoxide (CO), lung function, or genetic susceptibility to lung cancer. OBJECTIVES: To determine the efficacy of biomedical risk assessment provided in addition to various levels of counselling, as a contributing aid to smoking cessation. SEARCH METHODS: For the most recent update, we searched the Cochrane Collaboration Tobacco Addiction Group Specialized Register in July 2012 for studies added since the last update in 2009. SELECTION CRITERIA: Inclusion criteria were: a randomized controlled trial design; subjects participating in smoking cessation interventions; interventions based on a biomedical test to increase motivation to quit; control groups receiving all other components of intervention; an outcome of smoking cessation rate at least six months after the start of the intervention. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two assessors independently conducted data extraction on each paper, with disagreements resolved by consensus. Results were expressed as a relative risk (RR) for smoking cessation with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Where appropriate, a pooled effect was estimated using a Mantel-Haenszel fixed-effect method. MAIN RESULTS: We included 15 trials using a variety of biomedical tests. Two pairs of trials had sufficiently similar recruitment, setting and interventions to calculate a pooled effect; there was no evidence that carbon monoxide (CO) measurement in primary care (RR 1.06, 95% CI 0.85 to 1.32) or spirometry in primary care (RR 1.18, 95% CI 0.77 to 1.81) increased cessation rates. We did not pool the other 11 trials due to the presence of substantial clinical heterogeneity. Of the remaining 11 trials, two trials detected statistically significant benefits: one trial in primary care detected a significant benefit of lung age feedback after spirometry (RR 2.12, 95% CI 1.24 to 3.62) and one trial that used ultrasonography of carotid and femoral arteries and photographs of plaques detected a benefit (RR 2.77, 95% CI 1.04 to 7.41) but enrolled a population of light smokers and was judged to be at unclear risk of bias in two domains. Nine further trials did not detect significant effects. One of these tested CO feedback alone and CO combined with genetic susceptibility as two different interventions; none of the three possible comparisons detected significant effects. One trial used CO measurement, one used ultrasonography of carotid arteries and two tested for genetic markers. The four remaining trials used a combination of CO and spirometry feedback in different settings. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: There is little evidence about the effects of most types of biomedical tests for risk assessment on smoking cessation. Of the fifteen included studies, only two detected a significant effect of the intervention. Spirometry combined with an interpretation of the results in terms of 'lung age' had a significant effect in a single good quality trial but the evidence is not optimal. A trial of carotid plaque screening using ultrasound also detected a significant effect, but a second larger study of a similar feedback mechanism did not detect evidence of an effect. Only two pairs of studies were similar enough in terms of recruitment, setting, and intervention to allow meta-analyses; neither of these found evidence of an effect. Mixed quality evidence does not support the hypothesis that other types of biomedical risk assessment increase smoking cessation in comparison to standard treatment. There is insufficient evidence with which to evaluate the hypothesis that multiple types of assessment are more effective than single forms of assessment.

Spatial statistical analysis and selection of genotypes in plant breeding

The objective of this study was to evaluate the efficiency of spatial statistical analysis in the selection of genotypes in a plant breeding program and, particularly, to demonstrate the benefits of the approach when experimental observations are not spatially independent. The basic material of this study was a yield trial of soybean lines, with five check varieties (of fixed effect) and 110 test lines (of random effects), in an augmented block design. The spatial analysis used a random field linear model (RFML), with a covariance function estimated from the residuals of the analysis considering independent errors. Results showed a residual autocorrelation of significant magnitude and extension (range), which allowed a better discrimination among genotypes (increase of the power of statistical tests, reduction in the standard errors of estimates and predictors, and a greater amplitude of predictor values) when the spatial analysis was applied. Furthermore, the spatial analysis led to a different ranking of the genetic materials, in comparison with the non-spatial analysis, and a selection less influenced by local variation effects was obtained.

Designs and model effects definitions in the initial stage of a plant breeding program

The objective of this work was to compare the relative efficiency of initial selection and genetic parameter estimation, using augmented blocks design (ABD), augmented blocks twice replicated design (DABD) and group of randomised block design experiments with common treatments (ERBCT), by simulations, considering fixed effect model and mixed model with regular treatment effects as random. For the simulations, eight different conditions (scenarios) were considered. From the 600 simulations in each scenario, the mean percentage selection coincidence, the Pearsons´s correlation estimates between adjusted means for the fixed effects model, and the heritability estimates for the mixed model were evaluated. DABD and ERBCT were very similar in their comparisons and slightly superior to ABD. Considering the initial stages of selection in a plant breeding program, ABD is a good alternative for selecting superior genotypes, although none of the designs had been effective to estimate heritability in all the different scenarios evaluated.

Population pharmacokinetics in chronic myeloid leukaemia patients: observations under field-conditions

Introduction: Therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) of imatinib has been increasingly proposed for chronic myeloid leukaemia (CML) patients, as several studies have found a correlation between trough concentrations (Cmin) >=1000ng/ml and improved response. The pharmacological monitoring project of EUTOS (European Treatment and Outcome Study) was launched to increase the availability of imatinib TDM, standardize labs, and validate proposed Cmin thresholds. Using the collected data, the objective of this analysis was to characterize imatinib Population pharmacokinetics (Pop-PK) in a large cohort of European patients, to quantify its variability and the influence of demographic factors and comedications, and to derive individual exposure variables suitable for further concentration-effect analyses.¦Methods: 4095 PK samples from 2478 adult patients were analyzed between 2006 and 2010 by LC-MS-MS and considered for Pop-PK analysis by NONMEM®. Model building used data from 973 patients with >=2 samples available (2590 samples). A sensitivity analysis was performed using all data. Available comedications (27%) were classified into inducers or inhibitors of P-glycoprotein, CYP3A4/5 and organic-cation-transporter-1 (hOCT-1).¦Results: A one-compartment model with linear elimination, zero-order absorption fitted the data best. Estimated Pop-PK parameters (interindividual variability, IIV %CV) for a 40-year old male patient were: clearance CL = 17.3 L/h (37.7%), volume V = 429L (51.1%), duration of absorption D1 = 3.2h. Outliers, reflecting potential compliance and time recording errors, were taken into account by estimating an IIV on the residual error (35.4%). Intra-individual residuals were 29.1% (proportional) plus ± 84.6 ng/mL (additive). Female patients had a 15.2% lower CL (14.6 L/h). A piece-wise linear effect of age estimated a CL of 18.7 L/h at 20 years, 17.3 L/h at 40 and 13.8 L/h at 60 years. These covariates explained 2% (CL) and 4.5% (V) of IIV variability. No effect of comedication was found. The sensitivity analysis expectedly estimated increased IIV, but similar fixed effect parameters.¦Conclusion: Imatinib PK was well described in a large cohort of CML patients under field conditions and results were concordant with previous studies. Patient characteristics explain only little IIV, confirming limited utility of prior dosage adjustment. As intra-variability is smaller than inter-patient variability, dose adjustment guided by TDM could however be beneficial in order to bring Cmin into a given therapeutic target.

Cross-frequency coupling in EEG revealed by adaptive oscillation tracking.

Introduction: Neuronal oscillations have been the focus of increasing interest in the neuroscientific community, in part because they have been considered as a possible integrating mechanism through which internal states can influence stimulus processing in a top-down way (Engel et al., 2001). Moreover, increasing evidence indicates that oscillations in different frequency bands interact with one other through coupling mechanisms (Jensen and Colgin, 2007). The existence and the importance of these cross-frequency couplings during various tasks have been verified by recent studies (Canolty et al., 2006; Lakatos et al., 2007). In this study, we measure the strength and directionality of two types of couplings - phase-amplitude couplings and phase-phase couplings - between various bands in EEG data recorded during an illusory contour experiment that were identified using a recently-proposed adaptive frequency tracking algorithm (Van Zaen et al., 2010). Methods: The data used in this study have been taken from a previously published study examining the spatiotemporal mechanisms of illusory contour processing (Murray et al., 2002). The EEG in the present study were from a subset of nine subjects. Each stimulus was composed of 'pac-man' inducers presented in two orientations: IC, when an illusory contour was present, and NC, when no contour could be detected. The signals recorded by the electrodes P2, P4, P6, PO4 and PO6 were averaged, and filtered into the following bands: 4-8Hz, 8-12Hz, 15-25Hz, 35-45Hz, 45-55Hz, 55-65Hz and 65-75Hz. An adaptive frequency tracking algorithm (Van Zaen et al., 2010) was then applied in each band in order to extract the main oscillation and estimate its frequency. This additional step ensures that clean phase information is obtained when taking the Hilbert transform. The frequency estimated by the tracker was averaged over sliding windows and then used to compare the two conditions. Two types of cross-frequency couplings were considered: phase-amplitude couplings and phase-phase couplings. Both types were measured with the phase locking value (PLV, Lachaux et al., 1999) over sliding windows. The phase-amplitude couplings were computed with the phase of the low frequency oscillation and the phase of the amplitude of the high frequency one. Different coupling coefficients were used when measuring phase-phase couplings in order to estimate different m:n synchronizations (4:3, 3:2, 2:1, 3:1, 4:1, 5:1, 6:1, 7:1, 8:1 and 9:1) and to take into account the frequency differences across bands. Moreover, the direction of coupling was estimated with a directionality index (Bahraminasab et al., 2008). Finally, the two conditions IC and NC were compared with ANOVAs with 'subject' as a random effect and 'condition' as a fixed effect. Before computing the statistical tests, the PLV values were transformed into approximately normal variables (Penny et al., 2008). Results: When comparing the mean estimated frequency across conditions, a significant difference was found only in the 4-8Hz band, such that the frequency within this band was significantly higher for IC than NC stimuli starting at ~250ms post-stimulus onset (Fig. 1; solid line shows IC and dashed line NC). Significant differences in phase-amplitude couplings were obtained only when the 4-8 Hz band was taken as the low frequency band. Moreover, in all significant situations, the coupling strength is higher for the NC than IC condition. An example of significant difference between conditions is shown in Fig. 2 for the phase-amplitude coupling between the 4-8Hz and 55-65Hz bands (p-value in top panel and mean PLV values in the bottom panel). A decrease in coupling strength was observed shortly after stimulus onset for both conditions and was greater for the condition IC. This phenomenon was observed with all other frequency bands. The results obtained for the phase-phase couplings were more complex. As for the phase-amplitude couplings, all significant differences were obtained when the 4-8Hz band was considered as the low frequency band. The stimulus condition exhibiting the higher coupling strength depended on the ratio of the coupling coefficients. When this ratio was small, the IC condition exhibited the higher phase-phase coupling strength. When this ratio was large, the NC condition exhibited the higher coupling strength. Fig. 3 shows the phase-phase couplings between the 4-8Hz and 35-45Hz bands for the coupling coefficient 6:1, and the coupling strength was significantly higher for the IC than NC condition. By contrast, for the coupling coefficient 9:1 the NC condition gave the higher coupling strength (Fig. 4). Control analyses verified that it is not a consequence of the frequency difference between the two conditions in the 4-8Hz band. The directionality measures indicated a transfer of information from the low frequency components towards the high frequency ones. Conclusions: Adaptive tracking is a feasible method for EEG analyses, revealing information both about stimulus-related differences and coupling patterns across frequencies. Theta oscillations play a central role in illusory shape processing and more generally in visual processing. The presence vs. absence of illusory shapes was paralleled by faster theta oscillations. Phase-amplitude couplings were decreased more for IC than NC and might be due to a resetting mechanism. The complex patterns in phase-phase coupling between theta and beta/gamma suggest that the contribution of these oscillations to visual binding and stimulus processing are not as straightforward as conventionally held. Causality analyses further suggest that theta oscillations drive beta/gamma oscillations (see also Schroeder and Lakatos, 2009). The present findings highlight the need for applying more sophisticated signal analyses in order to establish a fuller understanding of the functional role of neural oscillations.

Degree of multicollinearity and variables involved in linear dependence in additive-dominant models

The objective of this work was to assess the degree of multicollinearity and to identify the variables involved in linear dependence relations in additive-dominant models. Data of birth weight (n=141,567), yearling weight (n=58,124), and scrotal circumference (n=20,371) of Montana Tropical composite cattle were used. Diagnosis of multicollinearity was based on the variance inflation factor (VIF) and on the evaluation of the condition indexes and eigenvalues from the correlation matrix among explanatory variables. The first model studied (RM) included the fixed effect of dam age class at calving and the covariates associated to the direct and maternal additive and non-additive effects. The second model (R) included all the effects of the RM model except the maternal additive effects. Multicollinearity was detected in both models for all traits considered, with VIF values of 1.03 - 70.20 for RM and 1.03 - 60.70 for R. Collinearity increased with the increase of variables in the model and the decrease in the number of observations, and it was classified as weak, with condition index values between 10.00 and 26.77. In general, the variables associated with additive and non-additive effects were involved in multicollinearity, partially due to the natural connection between these covariables as fractions of the biological types in breed composition.

Potential health-care service utilization substitution effects induced by case management for emergency department frequent users

BACKGROUND: In most of the emergency departments (ED) in developed countries, a subset of patients visits the ED frequently. Despite their small numbers, these patients are the source of a disproportionally high number of all ED visits, and use a significant proportion of healthcare resources. They place a heavy economic burden on hospital and healthcare systems budgets overall. Several interventions have been carried out to improve the management of these ED frequent users. Case management has been shown in some North American studies to reduce ED utilization and costs. In these studies, cost analyses have been carried out from the hospital perspective without examining the costs induced by healthcare consumed in the community. However, case management might reduce ED visits and costs from the hospital's perspective, but induce substitution effects, and increase health service utilization outside the hospital. This study examined if an interdisciplinary case-management intervention-compared to standard ED care -reduced costs generated by frequent ED users not only from the hospital perspective, but also from the healthcare system perspective-that is, from a broader perspective taking into account the costs of healthcare services used outside the hospital. METHODS: In this randomized controlled trial, 250 adult frequent emergency department users (5 or more visits during the previous 12 months) who visited the ED of the University Hospital of Lausanne, Switzerland, between May 2012 and July 2013 were allocated to one of two groups: case management intervention (CM) or standard ED care (SC), and followed up for 12 months. Depending on the perspective of the analysis, costs were evaluated differently. For the analysis from the hospital's perspective, the true value of resources used to provide services was used as a cost estimate. These data were obtained from the hospital's analytical accounting system. For the analysis from the health-care system perspective, all health-care services consumed by users and charged were used as an estimate of costs. These data were obtained from health insurance providers for a subsample of participants. To allow comparisons in a same time period, individual monthly average costs were calculated. Multivariate linear models including a fixed effect "group" were run using socio-demographic characteristics and health-related variables as controlling variables (age, gender, educational level, citizenship, marital status, somatic and mental health problems, and risk behaviors).

Impact on costs of a case management intervention for emergency department frequent users

Background: In most of the emergency departments (ED) in developed countries, a subset of patients visits the ED frequently. Despite their small numbers, these patients are the source of a disproportionally high number of all ED visits, and use a significant proportion of healthcare resources. They place a heavy economic burden on hospital and healthcare system budgets overall. In order to improve the management of these patients, the University hospital of Lausanne, Switzerland implemented a case management intervention (CM) between May 2012 and July 2013. In this randomized controlled trial, 250 frequent ED users (visits>5 during previous 12 months) were allocated to either the CM group or the standard ED care (SC) group and followed up for 12 months. The first result of the CM was to reduce significantly the ED visits. The present study examined whether the CM intervention also reduced the costs generated by the ED frequent users not only from the hospital perspective, but also from the healthcare system perspective. Methods: Cost data were obtained from the hospital's analytical accounting system and from health insurances. Multivariate linear models including a fixed effect "group" and socio-demographic characteristics and health-related variables were run.

The environmental effects of changing speed limits: a quantile regression approach

Two speed management policies were implemented in the metropolitan area of Barcelona aimed at reducing air pollution concentration levels. In 2008, the maximum speed limit was reduced to 80 km/h and, in 2009, a variable speed system was introduced on some metropolitan motorways. This paper evaluates whether such policies have been successful in promoting cleaner air, not only in terms of mean pollutant levels but also during high and low pollution episodes. We use a quantile regression approach for fixed effect panel data. We find that the variable speed system improves air quality with regard to the two pollutants considered here, being most effective when nitrogen oxide levels are not too low and when particulate matter concentrations are below extremely high levels. However, reducing the maximum speed limit from 120/100 km/h to 80 km/h has no effect – or even a slightly increasing effect –on the two pollutants, depending on the pollution scenario. Length: 32 pages

The impact of long-term brand development strategies on brand value of companies operating in high-technology markets

The objective of the current research is to investigate brand value generation. The study is conducted in the context of high-technology companies. The research aims at finding the impact of long-term brand development strategies, including advertising investments, R&D investments, R&D intensity, new products developed and design. The empirical part of the study incorporated collection of primary and secondary data on 36 companies operating in high-technology sector and being rated as top companies with the most valuable brands by Interbrand consultancy. The data contained information for six consequent years from 2008 to 2013. Obtained data was analyzed using the methods of fixed effect and random effect model (panel data analysis). The analysis showed positive effect of advertising and R&D investments on brand value of high-technology companies in the long run. The impact of remaining three strategies was not approved and further investigation is required.

Liquidity Risk in the Finnish Stock Market

This study explores the pricing of liquidity risk and its effect on stock returns in the Finnish stock market. In addition to that, it investigates whether there is a trend in liquidity risk. Finally, it analyzes whether the two chosen liquidity measures provide different results. The data consists of all the common shares listed in the Finnish stock market during the period of 1/1997–7/2015. To examine whether liquidity risk affects stock returns in the Finnish stock market, this study utilizes a conditional version of liquidity-adjusted capital asset pricing model (LCAPM) by Acharya and Pedersen (2005). Two recently proposed illiquidity measures – PQS and AdjILLIQ – are used in the empirical estimation to see whether there are differences in the results between the measures. The time-varying conditional liquidity risks are estimated by using a multivariate DCC-GARCH model, while the pricing of the liquidity risk is conducted by applying fixed effect panel regression. The results imply that investors in the Finnish stock market are willing to pay a premium to hedge from wealth shocks and having liquid assets during the declined market liquidity. However, investors are not willing to pay a premium for stocks with higher returns during illiquid markets. The total annualized illiquidity premiums found in the Finnish stock market are 1.77% and 1.04%, based on the PQS and AdjILLIQ measures, respectively. The study also shows that liquidity risk does not exhibit decreasing trend, and investors should consider liquidity risk in their portfolio diversification in the Finnish stock market.

Approximation de la distribution a posteriori d'un modèle Gamma-Poisson hiérarchique à effets mixtes

La méthode que nous présentons pour modéliser des données dites de "comptage" ou données de Poisson est basée sur la procédure nommée Modélisation multi-niveau et interactive de la régression de Poisson (PRIMM) développée par Christiansen et Morris (1997). Dans la méthode PRIMM, la régression de Poisson ne comprend que des effets fixes tandis que notre modèle intègre en plus des effets aléatoires. De même que Christiansen et Morris (1997), le modèle étudié consiste à faire de l'inférence basée sur des approximations analytiques des distributions a posteriori des paramètres, évitant ainsi d'utiliser des méthodes computationnelles comme les méthodes de Monte Carlo par chaînes de Markov (MCMC). Les approximations sont basées sur la méthode de Laplace et la théorie asymptotique liée à l'approximation normale pour les lois a posteriori. L'estimation des paramètres de la régression de Poisson est faite par la maximisation de leur densité a posteriori via l'algorithme de Newton-Raphson. Cette étude détermine également les deux premiers moments a posteriori des paramètres de la loi de Poisson dont la distribution a posteriori de chacun d'eux est approximativement une loi gamma. Des applications sur deux exemples de données ont permis de vérifier que ce modèle peut être considéré dans une certaine mesure comme une généralisation de la méthode PRIMM. En effet, le modèle s'applique aussi bien aux données de Poisson non stratifiées qu'aux données stratifiées; et dans ce dernier cas, il comporte non seulement des effets fixes mais aussi des effets aléatoires liés aux strates. Enfin, le modèle est appliqué aux données relatives à plusieurs types d'effets indésirables observés chez les participants d'un essai clinique impliquant un vaccin quadrivalent contre la rougeole, les oreillons, la rub\'eole et la varicelle. La régression de Poisson comprend l'effet fixe correspondant à la variable traitement/contrôle, ainsi que des effets aléatoires liés aux systèmes biologiques du corps humain auxquels sont attribués les effets indésirables considérés.

Essays on education and family planning

Le capital humain d’un pays est un facteur important de sa croissance et de son développement à long terme. Selon l’Unicef, ce capital humain est constitué en donnant à chaque enfant un bon départ dans la vie : non seule- ment la possibilité de survivre, mais aussi les conditions nécessaires pour se développer et réaliser tout son potentiel. Malheureusement, cet état de fait est loin d’être une réalité en Afrique Subsaharienne. En effet, selon toujours l’Unicef et sur la base d’enquêtes ménages dans 21 pays d’Afrique de l’Ouest et du Centre, c’est près de 32 millions d’enfants qui ont l’âge officiel d’être scolarisés, mais qui ne le sont pas. A ces chiffres, il faut ajouter 17 millions d’enfants scolarisés qui risquent fortement l’exclusion. De son Côté, l’OMS pointe du doigt la mauvaise santé des enfants dans cette région. Ainsi, les décès d’enfants sont de plus en plus concentrés en Afrique subsaharienne où les enfants ont plus de 15 fois plus de risques de mourir avant l’âge de cinq ans que les enfants des régions développées. Les difficultés économiques apparaissent comme la première explication des obstacles à l’amélioration du bien être des enfants aussi bien du côté de l’offre que de la demande. Cette thèse relie trois essais sur d’une part le lien entre conflit armés, l’éducation et la mortalité des enfants et d’autre part sur le lien entre fertilité et éducation des enfants en milieu urbain. Le premier chapitre identifie l’impact de la crise politico-militaire de la Côte d’Ivoire sur le bien être des enfants, en particulier sur l’éducation et la mor- talité infanto-juvénile en exploitant la variation temporelle et géographique de la crise. Il ressort de cette analyse que les individus qui vivaient dans les régions de conflit et qui ont atteint durant la crise, l’âge officiel d’entrer à l’école ont 10% moins de chance d’être inscrits à l’école. Les élèves qui habitaient dans des régions de conflit pendant la crise ont subit une diminu- tion du nombre d’années scolaire d’au moins une année. Les élèves les plus v vi âgés et qui sont susceptibles d’être au secondaire ont connu une décroissance du nombre d’année scolaire d’au moins deux années. Il ressort également que la crise ivoirienne a accru la mortalité infanto-juvénile d’au moins 3%. Mes résultats suggèrent également que la détérioration des conditions de vie et la limitation de l’utilisation des services de santé au cours du conflit con- tribuent à expliquer ces effets négatifs. Des tests de robustesse incluant un test de placebo suggèrent que les résultats ne sont pas dus à des différences préexistantes entre les régions affectées par le conflit et celles non affectées. Le deuxième chapitre étudie les disparités intra-urbaines en matière d’arbitrage entre le nombre d’enfant et la scolarisation des enfants en se focalisant sur le cas de Ouagadougou (Capitale du Burkina Faso). Dans cette ville, au moins 33% des deux millions d’habitants vivent dans des zones informelles (appelées localement des zones non-loties). Cette sous-population manque d’infrastructures socioéconomiques de base et a un niveau d’éducation très bas. Dans ce chapitre, prenant en compte la possible endogénéité du nombre d’enfants et en utilisant une approche "two-step control function" avec des modèles Probit, nous investiguons les différences de comportement des mé- nages en matière de scolarisation entre zones formelles et zones informelles. Nous nous focalisons en particulier sur l’arbitrage entre la "quantité" et la "qualité" des enfants. Compte tenu de l’hétérogénéité des deux types de zones, nous utilisons les probabilités prédites pour les comparer. Nos princi- pales conclusions sont les suivantes. Tout d’abord, nous trouvons un impact négatif de la taille de la famille sur le niveau de scolarisation dans les deux types de zone. Cependant, nous constatons que l’impact est plus aigu dans les zones informelles. Deuxièmement, si nous supposons que le caractère en- dogène du nombre d’enfants est essentiellement due à la causalité inverse, les résultats suggèrent que dans les zones formelles les parents tiennent compte de la scolarisation des enfants dans la décision de leur nombre d’enfants, mais ce ne est pas le cas dans les zones informelles. Enfin, nous constatons que, pour des familles avec les mêmes caractéristiques observables, la probabilité d’atteindre le niveau post-primaire est plus élevée dans les zones formelles que dans les zones informelles. En terme d’implications politique, selon ces résultats, les efforts pour améliorer la scolarisation des enfants ne doivent pas être dirigées uniquement vers les zones rurales. En plus de réduire les frais de scolarité dans certaines zones urbaines, en particulier les zones informelles, un accent particulier devrait être mis sur la sensibilisation sur les avantages de l’éducation pour le bien-être des enfants et leur famille. Enfin, du point vii de vue méthodologique, nos résultats montrent l’importance de tenir compte de l’hétérogénéité non observée entre les sous-populations dans l’explication des phénomènes socio-économiques. Compte tenu du lien négatif entre la taille de la famille et la scolarisation des enfants d’une part et les différences intra-urbaines de comportement des ménages en matière de scolarisation, le trosième chapitre étudie le rôle des types de méthodes contraceptives dans l’espacement des naissances en mi- lieu urbain. Ainsi, en distinguant les méthodes modernes et traditionnelles et en utilisant l’histoire génétique des femmes, ce chapitre fait ressortir des différences de comportement en matière de contraception entre les femmes des zones formelles et informelles à Ouagadougou (capitale du Burkina Faso). Les résultats montrent que les deux types de méthodes contraceptives aug- mentent l’écart des naissances et diminuent la probabilité qu’une naissance se produise moins de 24 mois après la précédente. Prendre en compte les caractéristiques non observées mais invariants avec le temps ne modifie pas significativement l’amplitude du coefficient de l’utilisation de la contracep- tion moderne dans les deux types de zone. Toutefois, dans la zone informelle, la prise en compte les effets fixes des femmes augmentent significativement l’effet des méthodes traditionnelles. Les normes sociales, la perception de la planification familiale et le rôle du partenaire de la femme pourraient expli- quer ces différences de comportement entre les zones formelles et informelles. Par conséquent, pour améliorer l’utilisation de la contraception et de leur efficacité, il est essentiel de hiérarchiser les actions en fonction du type de sous-population, même dans les zones urbaines.

Calories, obesity and health in OECD countries

Theoretical models suggest that decisions about diet, weight and health status are endogenous within a utility maximization framework. In this article, we model these behavioural relationships in a fixed-effect panel setting using a simultaneous equation system, with a view to determining whether economic variables can explain the trends in calorie consumption, obesity and health in Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries and the large differences among the countries. The empirical model shows that progress in medical treatment and health expenditure mitigates mortality from diet-related diseases, despite rising obesity rates. While the model accounts for endogeneity and serial correlation, results are affected by data limitations.