Quantification of physical and biological uncertainty in the simulation of the yield of a tropical crop using present-day and doubled CO2 climates

The impacts of climate change on crop productivity are often assessed using simulations from a numerical climate model as an input to a crop simulation model. The precision of these predictions reflects the uncertainty in both models. We examined how uncertainty in a climate (HadAM3) and crop General Large-Area Model (GLAM) for annual crops model affects the mean and standard deviation of crop yield simulations in present and doubled carbon dioxide (CO2) climates by perturbation of parameters in each model. The climate sensitivity parameter (lambda, the equilibrium response of global mean surface temperature to doubled CO2) was used to define the control climate. Observed 1966-1989 mean yields of groundnut (Arachis hypogaea L.) in India were simulated well by the crop model using the control climate and climates with values of lambda near the control value. The simulations were used to measure the contribution to uncertainty of key crop and climate model parameters. The standard deviation of yield was more affected by perturbation of climate parameters than crop model parameters in both the present-day and doubled CO2 climates. Climate uncertainty was higher in the doubled CO2 climate than in the present-day climate. Crop transpiration efficiency was key to crop model uncertainty in both present-day and doubled CO2 climates. The response of crop development to mean temperature contributed little uncertainty in the present-day simulations but was among the largest contributors under doubled CO2. The ensemble methods used here to quantify physical and biological uncertainty offer a method to improve model estimates of the impacts of climate change.

Vertical structure and physical processes of the Madden-Julian oscillation: Linking hindcast fidelity to simulated diabatic heating and moistening

Many theories for the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) focus on diabatic processes, particularly the evolution of vertical heating and moistening. Poor MJO performance in weather and climate models is often blamed on biases in these processes and their interactions with the large-scale circulation. We introduce one of three components of a model-evaluation project, which aims to connect MJO fidelity in models to their representations of several physical processes, focusing on diabatic heating and moistening. This component consists of 20-day hindcasts, initialised daily during two MJO events in winter 2009-10. The 13 models exhibit a range of skill: several have accurate forecasts to 20 days' lead, while others perform similarly to statistical models (8-11 days). Models that maintain the observed MJO amplitude accurately predict propagation, but not vice versa. We find no link between hindcast fidelity and the precipitation-moisture relationship, in contrast to other recent studies. There is also no relationship between models' performance and the evolution of their diabatic-heating profiles with rain rate. A more robust association emerges between models' fidelity and net moistening: the highest-skill models show a clear transition from low-level moistening for light rainfall to mid-level moistening at moderate rainfall and upper-level moistening for heavy rainfall. The mid-level moistening, arising from both dynamics and physics, may be most important. Accurately representing many processes may be necessary, but not sufficient for capturing the MJO, which suggests that models fail to predict the MJO for a broad range of reasons and limits the possibility of finding a panacea.

Vertical structure and physical processes of the Madden-Julian oscillation: synthesis and summary

The "Vertical structure and physical processes of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO)" project comprises three experiments, designed to evaluate comprehensively the heating, moistening and momentum associated with tropical convection in general circulation models (GCMs). We consider here only those GCMs that performed all experiments. Some models display relatively higher or lower MJO fidelity in both initialized hindcasts and climate simulations, while others show considerable variations in fidelity between experiments. Fidelity in hindcasts and climate simulations are not meaningfully correlated. The analysis of each experiment led to the development of process-oriented diagnostics, some of which distinguished between GCMs with higher or lower fidelity in that experiment. We select the most discriminating diagnostics and apply them to data from all experiments, where possible, to determine if correlations with MJO fidelity hold across scales and GCM states. While normalized gross moist stability had a small but statistically significant correlation with MJO fidelity in climate simulations, we find no link with fidelity in medium-range hindcasts. Similarly, there is no association between timestep-to-timestep rainfall variability, identified from short hindcasts, and fidelity in medium-range hindcasts or climate simulations. Two metrics that relate precipitation to free-tropospheric moisture--the relative humidity for extreme daily precipitation, and variations in the height and amplitude of moistening with rain rate--successfully distinguish between higher- and lower-fidelity GCMs in hindcasts and climate simulations. To improve the MJO, developers should focus on relationships between convection and both total moisture and its rate of change. We conclude by offering recommendations for further experiments.

Vertical structure and physical processes of the Madden-Julian oscillation: exploring key model physics in climate simulations

Aimed at reducing deficiencies in representing the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) in general circulation models (GCMs), a global model evaluation project on vertical structure and physical processes of the MJO was coordinated. In this paper, results from the climate simulation component of this project are reported. It is shown that the MJO remains a great challenge in these latest generation GCMs. The systematic eastward propagation of the MJO is only well simulated in about one-fourth of the total participating models. The observed vertical westward tilt with altitude of the MJO is well simulated in good MJO models, but not in the poor ones. Damped Kelvin wave responses to the east of convection in the lower troposphere could be responsible for the missing MJO preconditioning process in these poor MJO models. Several process-oriented diagnostics were conducted to discriminate key processes for realistic MJO simulations. While large-scale rainfall partition and low-level mean zonal winds over the Indo-Pacific in a model are not found to be closely associated with its MJO skill, two metrics, including the low-level relative humidity difference between high and low rain events and seasonal mean gross moist stability, exhibit statistically significant correlations with the MJO performance. It is further indicated that increased cloud-radiative feedback tends to be associated with reduced amplitude of intraseasonal variability, which is incompatible with the radiative instability theory previously proposed for the MJO. Results in this study confirm that inclusion of air-sea interaction can lead to significant improvement in simulating the MJO.

Vertical structure and physical processes of the Madden-Julian oscillation: Biases and uncertainties at short range

An analysis of diabatic heating and moistening processes from 12-36 hour lead time forecasts from 12 Global Circulation Models are presented as part of the "Vertical structure and physical processes of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)" project. A lead time of 12-36 hours is chosen to constrain the large scale dynamics and thermodynamics to be close to observations while avoiding being too close to the initial spin-up for the models as they adjust to being driven from the YOTC analysis. A comparison of the vertical velocity and rainfall with the observations and YOTC analysis suggests that the phases of convection associated with the MJO are constrained in most models at this lead time although the rainfall in the suppressed phase is typically overestimated. Although the large scale dynamics is reasonably constrained, moistening and heating profiles have large inter-model spread. In particular, there are large spreads in convective heating and moistening at mid-levels during the transition to active convection. Radiative heating and cloud parameters have the largest relative spread across models at upper levels during the active phase. A detailed analysis of time step behaviour shows that some models show strong intermittency in rainfall and differences in the precipitation and dynamics relationship between models. The wealth of model outputs archived during this project is a very valuable resource for model developers beyond the study of the MJO. In addition, the findings of this study can inform the design of process model experiments, and inform the priorities for field experiments and future observing systems.

Dielectric properties and physical features of phosphate glasses containing iron oxide

Microwave techniques were applied to the study of dielectric properties of phosphate glasses on the basis of contributions from permanent and induced dipolar polarization of local structural units interacting with the electrical component of the electromagnetic radiation. The dielectric constant of the selected glass system (100-x)(50P(2)O(5)center dot 25Li(2)O center dot 25Na(2)O)center dot xFe(2)O(3), where 0 <= x <= 21 is in mol%, was measured using a microwave setup assembled to measure the phase shift of the standing wave pattern produced by the insertion of the sample. It is shown that the Fe2+ ions contribute effectively to the dielectric constant, as expected from the interactions of the dipoles of the local charge compensation pairs with the microwave radiation. However, there is the possibility of occurrence of some ions Fe3+, in general, at low iron content, which reinforces the glass structure and, therefore, decreases the dielectric constant. There is a gradual conversion from Fe3+ to Fe2+ as the iron ions increases. This is possibly the reason of the anomaly in the dielectric constant values observed in the results. These assumptions can be checked by results of electronic paramagnetic resonance (EPR) and optical absorption (OA). The dielectric constant of the glasses studied in this work was found to increase with the temperature in the range of 25-330 degrees C. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Structure and Physical Properties of EVA/Starch Precursor Materials for Foaming Applications

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Thermally activated exchange narrowing of the Gd3+ ESR fine structure in a single crystal of Ce1-xGdxFe4P12 (x approximate to 0.001) skutterudite

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Fine structure of Mytella falcata (Bivalvia) gill filaments

Bivalve filter feeders are sessile animals that live in constant contact with water and its pollutants. Their gill is an organ highly exposed to these conditions due to its large surface and its involvement in gas exchanges and feeding. The bivalve Mytella falcata is found in estuaries of Latin America, on the Atlantic as well as the Pacific Coast. It is commonly consumed, and sometimes is the only source of protein of low-income communities. In this study, gill filaments of M. falcata were characterized using histology, histochemistry and transmission electron microscopy for future comparative studies among animals exposed to environmental pollutants. Gill filaments may be divided into abfrontal, intermediate and frontal zones. Filaments are interconnected by ciliary discs. In the center of filaments, haemocytes circulate through a haemolymph vessel internally lined by an endothelium and supported by an acellular connective tissue rich in polysaccharides and collagen. The abfrontal zone contains cuboidal cells, while the intermediate zone consists of a simple squamous epithelium. The frontal zone is composed of five columnar cell types: one absorptive, mainly characterized by the presence of pinocytic vesicles in the apical region of the cell; one secretory, rarely observed and three ciliated with abundant mitochondria. All cells lining the filament exhibit numerous microvilli and seem to absorb substances from the environment. PAS staining was observed in mucous cells in the frontal and abfrontal zones. Bromophenol blue allowed the distinction of haemocytes and detection of a glycoprotein secretion in the secretory cells of the frontal region. The characteristics of M. falcata gill filaments observed in this study were very similar to those of other bivalves, especially other Mytilidae, and are suitable for histopathological studies on the effect of water-soluble pollutants. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

FINE-STRUCTURE AND MORPHOGENESIS OF THE MICROPYLE APPARATUS IN BEES EGGS

The present paper deals with the description of the formation of the micropylar apparatus in some species of Apidae bees. The features of the cells located in the anterior pole of the oocyte chamber are described at light microscopy and with SEM and TEM. The resulting micropylar region has the form of a sieved plate, slightly elevated in relationship to the oocyte surface. It is not clear if all the holes in the sieve are opened.

Fine structure of lamellated nerve endings in the gingiva of man and the Cebus apella monkey

Gingival mucosae of man and the adult Cebus apella monkey were fixed for 3 hr in modified Karnovsky fixative containing 2.5% glutaraldehyde, 2% formaldehyde in 0.1 M sodium phosphate buffer (pH=7.4). The specimens were postfixed in 1% osmium tetroxide in 0.1 M sodium phosphate buffer at 4°C for 2 hr, dehydrated in a graded alcohol series and embedded in Epon 812. Thick sections of 1-3 μm and ultrathin sections of 40-80 nm in thickness were cut with glass knives on an LKB ultramicrotome. The thick sections were stained with toluidine blue solution, and the grids were stained with uranyl acetate and lead citrate and examined under a Philips EM-301 electron microscope. Our observations permitted us to conclude that: both gingival mucosae, of man and the Cebus apella monkey, have lamellar nerve endings; these corpuscles are localized in the papillar space of the epithelium and do not contact closely with the basement membrane; the nerve endings are composed of an afferent fiber which subdivides several times and forms irregular flattened or discoidal expansions; the laminae of the lamellar cells are very thin near the terminal axon and are larger and irregular in shape at the peripheral portion of the corpuscle; the terminal axon shows abundant mitochondria, myelin figures, clear vesicles, and multivesicular bodies; between the axoplasm membrane and adjacent cytoplasmic lamina and between the lamellae, small desmosome type junctions are noted; and the cytoplasmic material of the lamellae cells is characterized by the presence of numerous microfilaments, microtubules, mitochondria, rough endoplasmic reticulum, and caveolae.

Influence of monomeric and polymeric structure on the physical properties of thermoplastic polyesters derived from hydroxy fatty acids

The physical properties of three vegetable oil derived medium and long chain poly(-hydroxy fatty ester)s (P(Me--OHFA)s), namely poly(-hydroxynonanoate) [P(Me--OHC9)], poly(-hydroxytridecanoate) [P(Me--OHC13)] and poly(-hydroxyoctadecanoate) [P(Me--OHC18)] (n = 8, 12 and 17, respectively), of the [-(CH2)(n)-COO-](x) polyester homologous series are presented. The effect of M-n (M-n 10-40 kg mol(-1)) and n on the crystal structure and thermal and mechanical properties of the P(Me--OHFA)s were investigated by wide-angle X-ray diffraction (WAXD), TGA, DSC, dynamic mechanical analysis (DMA) and tensile analysis and are discussed in the context of the [-(CH2)(n)-COO-](x) polyester homologous series, contrasted with linear polyethylene (PE). For all P(Me--OHFA)s the WAXD data indicated an orthorhombic crystal phase reminiscent of linear PE with crystallinity (X-c = 50%-80%) depending strongly on M-n. The glass transition temperature and Young's modulus for P(Me--OHFA)s increased with X-c. The DSC, DMA and TGA studies for P(Me--OHFA)s (n = 8, 12 and 17) indicated strong correlations between the melting, glass transition and thermal degradation behavior and n. The established predictive structure relationships can be used for the custom engineering of polyester materials suitable for specialty and commodity applications. (c) 2014 Society of Chemical Industry

Fine-grained Indoor Tracking by Fusing Inertial Sensor and Physical Layer Information in WLANs

Indoor positioning has become an emerging research area because of huge commercial demands for location-based services in indoor environments. Channel State Information (CSI) as a fine-grained physical layer information has been recently proposed to achieve high positioning accuracy by using range-based methods, e.g., trilateration. In this work, we propose to fuse the CSI-based ranges and velocity estimated from inertial sensors by an enhanced particle filter to achieve highly accurate tracking. The algorithm relies on some enhanced ranging methods and further mitigates the remaining ranging errors by a weighting technique. Additionally, we provide an efficient method to estimate the velocity based on inertial sensors. The algorithms are designed in a network-based system, which uses rather cheap commercial devices as anchor nodes. We evaluate our system in a complex environment along three different moving paths. Our proposed tracking method can achieve 1:3m for mean accuracy and 2:2m for 90% accuracy, which is more accurate and stable than pedestrian dead reckoning and range-based positioning.

Probing the Structure, Pseudorotation, and Radial Vibrations of Cyclopentane by Femtosecond Rotational Raman Coherence Spectroscopy

Femtosecond time-resolved Raman rotational coherence spectroscopy (RCS) is employed to determine accurate rotational, vibration–rotation coupling constants, and centrifugal distortion constants of cyclopentane (C⁵H¹⁰). Its lowest-frequency vibration is a pseudorotating ring deformation that interconverts 10 permutationally distinct but energetically degenerate “twist” minima interspersed by 10 “bent” conformers. While the individual twist and bent structures are polar asymmetric tops, the pseudorotation is fast on the time scale of external rotation, rendering cyclopentane a fluxionally nonpolar symmetric top molecule. The pseudorotational level pattern corresponds to a one-dimensional internal rotor with a pseudorotation constant Bps ≈ 2.8 cm⁻¹. The pseudorotational levels are significantly populated up to l = ± 13 at 298 K; <10% of the molecules are in the l = 0 level. The next-higher vibration is the “radial” ν²³ ring deformation mode at 273 cm⁻¹, which is far above the pseudorotational fundamental. Femtosecond Raman RCS measurements were performed in a gas cell at T = 293 K and in a pulsed supersonic jet at T ≈ 90 K. The jet cooling reduces the pseudorotational distribution to l < ±8 and eliminates the population of ν²³, allowing one to determine the rotational constant as A0 = B0 = 6484.930(11) MHz. This value is ∼300 times more precise than the previous value. The fit of the RCS transients reveals that the rotation–pseudorotation coupling constant αe,psB = −0.00070(1) MHz is diminutive, implying that excitation of the pseudorotation has virtually no effect on the B0 rotational constant of cyclopentane. The smallness of αe,psB can be realized when comparing to the vibration–rotation coupling constant of the ν²³ vibration, αe,23B = −9.547(1) MHz, which is about 10⁴ times larger.