Options for a Euro-area fiscal capacity. Bruegel Policy Brief 2013/01, January 2013

Europe has responded to the crisis with strengthened budgetary and macroeconomic surveillance, the creation of the European Stability Mechanism, liquidity provisioning by resilient economies and the European Central Bank and a process towards a banking union. However, a monetary union requires some form of budget for fiscal stabilisation in case of shocks, and as a backstop to the banking union. This paper compares four quantitatively different schemes of fiscal stabilisation and proposes a new scheme based on GDP-indexed bonds. The options considered are: (i) A federal budget with unemployment and corporate taxes shifted to euro-area level; (ii) a support scheme based on deviations from potential output;(iii) an insurance scheme via which governments would issue bonds indexed to GDP, and (iv) a scheme in which access to jointly guaranteed borrowing is combined with gradual withdrawal of fiscal sovereignty. Our comparison is based on strong assumptions. We carry out a preliminary, limited simulation of how the debt-to-GDP ratio would have developed between 2008-14 under the four schemes for Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain and an ‘average’ country.The schemes have varying implications in each case for debt sustainability

Editorial : Federal developments

On 10 May 2011, Federal Treasurer Wayne Swan MP delivered the Federal Budget for the 2011–2012 financial year. The Budget contains a number of new initiatives, financial redistributions and reductions that relate to Australia's current regulatory framework governing the environment, climate change and renewable energy. These are set out below...

Psychosocial and communication variables involved in mediating the individual experience of older adults following a severe weather event

The recent floods in south-east Queensland have focused policy, academic and community attention on the challenges associated with severe weather events (SWE), specifically pre-disaster preparation, disaster-response and post-disaster community resilience. Financially, the cost of SWE was $9 billion in the 2011 Australian Federal Budget (Swan 2011); psychologically and emotionally, the impact on individual mental health and community wellbeing is also significant but more difficult to quantify. However, recent estimates suggest that as many as one in five will subsequently experience major emotional distress (Bonanno et al. 2010). With climate change predicted to increase the frequency and intensity of a wide range of SWE in Australia (Garnaut 2011; The Climate Institute 2011), there is an urgent and critical need to ensure that the unique psychological and social needs of more vulnerable community members - such as older residents - are better understood and integrated into disaster preparedness and response policy, planning and protocols. Navigating the complex dynamics of SWE can be particularly challenging for older adults and their disaster experience is frequently magnified by a wide array of cumulative and interactive stressors, which intertwine to make them uniquely vulnerable to significant short and long-term adverse effects. This current article provides a brief introduction to the current literature in this area and highlights a gap in the research relating to communication tools during and after severe weather events.

Thin capitalisation – the multinational tax avoidance strategy the budget forgot

We have already seen major amendments to Australia’s tax regime to tackle base erosion and profit shifting (BEPS). Several more significant measures were announced in the federal budget, most notably the diverted profits tax, aimed at multinationals which shift tax to a lower taxing jurisdiction. Yet to date, a very simple tax minimisation strategy has been largely ignored in the ongoing reforms and was ignored in the federal budget. Excessive debt loading is a problem that not been afforded the same attention as other aggressive tax planning strategies adopted by multinationals.

Transparência do orçamento público brasileiro : exame dos documentos orçamentários da União e uma proposta de estrutura para o Orçamento-Cidadão

Sugere medidas para o aperfeiçoamento da transparência do sistema orçamentário federal brasileiro. A partir de pesquisa exploratória busca relacionar o instituto do orçamento público aos conceitos de planejamento, participação popular, controle social, cidadania, accountability e democracia - relações que fundamentam a defesa da transparência orçamentária. Examina se são emitidos dez documentos orçamentários e avalia seus conteúdos. São eles: Declaração Pré-Orçamentária, Proposta de Orçamento do Executivo, Orçamento, Relatórios Mensais, Relatório Semestral, Relatório Anual, Relatório do Auditor, Relatório Pré-Eleitoral, Relatório Plurianual e Orçamento-Cidadão.

Transparência no Setor Público: uma análise do nível de transparência dos relatórios de gestão dos entes públicos federais no exercício de 2010

Essa dissertação objetiva oferecer uma contribuição acadêmica sobre o nível de transparência pública federal nos relatórios de gestão anuais e os incentivos (político, institucional, governamental, social e financeiro) associados à divulgação da informação. Aborda-se, a perspectiva do conflito de agência, assimetria informacional e public accountability na divulgação da informação pública, isto é, os gestores governamentais tendem a disponibilizar uma informação assimétrica ao cidadão. A pesquisa é empírico-analítica com regressão linear múltipla e análise de corte transversal nos relatórios de gestão de 2010 de 115 entes públicos federais. Para tanto foi construído um índice de transparência pública federal (total, obrigatório e voluntário) dicotômico (binário) e policotômico (ponderado), baseado em estudos anteriores e na legislação nacional, adaptado ao cenário brasileiro. Os resultados apontam um baixo nível de transparência pública federal (50%) dos itens de evidenciação, deficiência de compliance com as práticas de evidenciação obrigatória (80%) e baixa aderência às práticas de evidenciação voluntária (19%). Ademais se verificou uma uniformidade na divulgação da informação pública (total, obrigatória e voluntária) entre os entes públicos da administração indireta (autarquias 54% e fundações 55%), mas diferenças estatísticas significativas quando considerados estes e os entes da administração direta (órgãos públicos 46%), que tendem a divulgar menos informação. Relativo aos incentivos se observa uma relação positiva do tipo do ente (incentivo governamental), da acessibilidade (incentivo social) e da demografia de pessoal (incentivo institucional) com o índice de transparência pública federal, enquanto a burocracia pública (incentivo governamental) apresenta uma relação negativa. Todavia o porte (incentivo político), tamanho do núcleo de gestão (incentivo institucional), receita orçamentária e dependência federal (incentivo financeiro) não apresentaram relação com o índice. Assim, a contribuição do estudo é revelar o atual estágio da transparência pública dos entes públicos federais, bem como os incentivos associados, e estas informações, podem ser oportunidades de melhorias na evidenciação da informação pública nos relatórios de gestão anuais.

Política exterior de Canadá en el ártico: entre la seguridad nacional y la prosperidad económica (2006-2011)

En el año 2010 el gobierno de Canadá pública su estrategia de política exterior hacia el Ártico, en la cual manifiesta que esta región es una de las principales prioridades del Gobierno de Stephen Harper en materia de política exterior. Así las cosas, a partir de la perspectiva teórica del realismo neoclásico la investigación se enfoca en analizar por qué la seguridad nacional y la prosperidad económica son los principales intereses de este Gobierno en la zona.

The false promise of a eurozone budget. CEPS Commentary, 7 December 2012

n this new CEPS commentary, CEPS Director Daniel Gros takes a closer look at the US experience to point out that the federal budget provides much less insurance against state specific shocks than widely assumed, while the US Banking Union act as a very powerful shock absorber. Accordingly, he argues that the euro’s long-term stability depends far more on completing plans for a European banking union than on the introduction of a fiscal capacity for the eurozone.

Determinantes do voto para deputado federal: relação entre emendas orçamentárias e desempenho eleitoral

Obter votos é crucial para todo político que se submete a uma eleição. Sendo assim, este trabalho se dedica a investigar variáveis que afetem a votação de deputados federais candidatos a reeleição na Câmara Federal, dando ênfase à relação entre provisão de emendas e desempenho eleitoral. Para verificar a importância das emendas na competição eleitoral, as eleições municipais intermediárias também são exploradas. Os dados utilizados abrangem as eleições e Orçamento Federal do período de 1994 a 2006. Como resultado se verifica que aspectos ligados às características individuais dos deputados têm forte poder explicativo sobre os votos totais obtidos por estes. Adicionalmente, encontra-se evidência de um efeito local das emendas sobre os eleitores e que a relação estabelecida entre deputado e município determina grande parte da votação municipal obtida em uma tentativa de reeleição.

The U.S. budget in brief.

Report covers fiscal year.

First concurrent resolution on the budget, fiscal year 1980 : hearings before the Committee on the Budget, United States Senate, Ninety-sixth Congress, first session.

Includes indexes.

AITPM Email Newsletter Volume 0905, June 2009 : President's Message

President’s Message Hello fellow AITPM members, Due to three colliding forces of nature I find myself writing this month’s message from home – today, I am still getting over a persistent virus that seemed to set in just after returning from Singapore a couple of weeks ago, which my diabetes won’t let me get away with too easily (no Kermit the Frog swine flu jokes please). Combine this with a very wet day in Brisbane – in fact the wettest for 20 years (how can we complain, except for flash flooding?). And in Queensland today is a state school teachers’ strike, so one half of our brood is over watching TV. Family snapshots aside, the biggest news for our industry of late is the $8.5 billion announced in the Federal Budget for transport infrastructure projects; many “shovel ready”, but some – and fortunate for our profession – desktop ready. This newsletter provides nationwide coverage on the transport infrastructure aspects of the Federal Budget. We’ll need a bit more time to carefully look at the ensuing State Budgets’ announcements. Regarding the federal budget announcements, I am pleased to see serious attention being paid to upgrading the M1 system – I hope to see a motorway standard facility connecting Adelaide to at least Rockhampton in my lifetime. But some other important roads are of course missing out in this particular budget. Various levels of commitment are being made to urban passenger rail – some project significant while others planning significant. Enhancement of suburban rail is important across the capitals and Australia’s medium sized cities such as the Gold Coast and Newcastle. Not much on road safety initiatives jumped out at me, but I believe it is implied in the large road projects and in some of the detail elsewhere. I do believe it’s about time a ‘Vision Zero’ style policy is adopted at the National level, since any death is unacceptable on the road, just as it is in any other workplace. So, overall some good news on building transport infrastructure to keep the economy purring during this recession, and strongly supporting it during future boom times. The other edge to the sword, of course, is that we tax payers will be paying a considerable amount for borrowings for these projects over a long period of time. I close again in reminding everyone again that AITPM’s flagship event, the 2009 AITPM National Conference, Traffic Beyond Tomorrow, is being held in Adelaide from 5 to 7 August. www.aitpm.com has all of the details about how to register, sponsor a booth, session, etc. Best regards all, Jon Bunker