Analytical and Monte Carlo approaches to evaluate probability distributions of interruption duration

Regulatory authorities in many countries, in order to maintain an acceptable balance between appropriate customer service qualities and costs, are introducing a performance-based regulation. These regulations impose penalties-and, in some cases, rewards-that introduce a component of financial risk to an electric power utility due to the uncertainty associated with preserving a specific level of system reliability. In Brazil, for instance, one of the reliability indices receiving special attention by the utilities is the maximum continuous interruption duration (MCID) per customer.This parameter is responsible for the majority of penalties in many electric distribution utilities. This paper describes analytical and Monte Carlo simulation approaches to evaluate probability distributions of interruption duration indices. More emphasis will be given to the development of an analytical method to assess the probability distribution associated with the parameter MCID and the correspond ng penalties. Case studies on a simple distribution network and on a real Brazilian distribution system are presented and discussed.

Reliability and failure modes of internal conical dental implant connections

Objective: Biological and mechanical implant-abutment connection complications and failures are still present in clinical practice, frequently compromising oral function. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the reliability and failure modes of anterior single-unit restorations in internal conical interface (ICI) implants using step-stress accelerated life testing (SSALT). Materials and methods: Forty-two ICI implants were distributed in two groups (n = 21 each): group AT-OsseoSpeed™ TX (Astra Tech, Waltham, MA, USA); group SV-Duocon System Line, Morse Taper (Signo Vinces Ltda., Campo Largo, PR, Brazil). The corresponding abutments were screwed to the implants and standardized maxillary central incisor metal crowns were cemented and subjected to SSALT in water. Use-level probability Weibull curves and reliability for a mission of 50,000 cycles at 200 N were calculated. Differences between groups were assessed by Kruskal-Wallis along with Bonferroni's post-hoc tests. Polarized-light and scanning electron microscopes were used for failure analyses. Results: The Beta (β) value derived from use level probability Weibull calculation was 1.62 (1.01-2.58) for group AT and 2.56 (1.76-3.74) for group SV, indicating that fatigue was an accelerating factor for failure of both groups. The reliability for group AT was 0.95 and for group SV was 0.88. Kruskal-Wallis along with Bonferroni's post-hoc tests showed no significant difference between the groups tested (P > 0.27). In all specimens of both groups, the chief failure mode was abutment fracture at the conical joint region and screw fracture at neck's region. Conclusions: Reliability was not different between investigated ICI connections supporting maxillary incisor crowns. Failure modes were similar. © 2012 John Wiley & Sons A/S.

Mechanical Evaluation of Four Narrow-Diameter Implant Systems

Purpose: This study aimed to evaluate the survival probability of four narrow-diameter implant systems when subjected to fatigue loading. Materials and Methods: Seventy-two narrow-diameter implants to be restored with single-unit crowns were divided into four groups (n = 18): Astra Tech (3.5-mm diameter), with a standard connection (ASC); BioHorizon (3.4-mm diameter), with a standard connection (BSC); Intra-Lock (3.4-mm diameter), with a standard multilobular connection (ISC); and Intra-Lock (3.4-diameter), with a modified square connection (IMC). The corresponding abutments were screwed onto the implants, and standardized metal crowns (maxillary central incisors) were cemented and subjected to step-stress accelerated life testing in water. Use-level probability Weibull curves and reliability for 100,000 cycles at 150 and 200 N (90% two-sided confidence intervals) were calculated. Polarized light and scanning electron microscopes were used to access the failure modes. Results: The calculated survival probability for 100,000 cycles at 150 N was approximately 93% in group ASC, 98% in group BSC, 94% in group ISC, and 99% in group IMC. At 200 N, the survival rate was estimated to be approximately < 0.1% for ASC, 77% for BSC, 34% for ISC, and 93% for IMC. Abutment screw fracture was the main failure mode for all groups. Conclusions: Although the probability of survival was not significantly different among systems at a load of 150 N, a significant decrease was observed at 200 N for all groups except IMC.

Influence of abutment-to-fixture design on reliability and failure mode of all-ceramic crown systems

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Análise estatística da vida em fadiga de compósitos estruturais pela distribuição de Weibull

Nowadays technological trend is based on finding materials that could support low weight with satisfactory mechanical properties and for this reason composite material became a very attractive topic in research projects all over the world. Due to its heterogenic properties, this type of material shows scatter in mechanical test results, especially in cyclic loading. Therefore it is important to predict its fatigue strength behaviour by statistic analysis, once fatigue causes approximately 90% of the failure in structural components. The present work aimed to investigate the fatigue behaviour of the Twill/Cycom 890 composite, which is carbon fiber reinforced with polymeric resin as matrix and manufactured via RTM process (Resin Transfer Molding). All samples were tested in different tensile level in triplicate in order to associate these values. The statistical analysis was conducted with Two-Parameter Weibull Distribution and then evaluated the fatigue life results for the composite. Weibull graphics were used to determine the scale and shape parameters. The S-N curve for the Twill/Cycom composite was drawn and indicated the number of cycles to occur the first damages in this material. The probability of failure was associated with material reliability, as shown in graphics for the different tensile levels and fatigue life. In addition, the laminate was evaluated by ultrasonic inspection showing a regular impregnation. The fractographic analysis conducted by SEM showed failure mechanisms for polymeric composites associated to cyclic loadings ... (Complete abstract click electronic access below)

The cross-entropy method for network reliability estimation

Consider a network of unreliable links, modelling for example a communication network. Estimating the reliability of the network-expressed as the probability that certain nodes in the network are connected-is a computationally difficult task. In this paper we study how the Cross-Entropy method can be used to obtain more efficient network reliability estimation procedures. Three techniques of estimation are considered: Crude Monte Carlo and the more sophisticated Permutation Monte Carlo and Merge Process. We show that the Cross-Entropy method yields a speed-up over all three techniques.

Traffic Offered Behaviour Regarding Target QOS Parameters in Network Dimensioning

We consider a model of overall telecommunication network with virtual circuits switching, in stationary state, with Poisson input flow, repeated calls, limited number of homogeneous terminals and 8 types of losses. One of the main problems of network dimensioning/redimensioning is estimation of traffic offered in network because it reflects on finding of necessary number of circuit switching lines on the basis of the consideration of detailed users manners and target Quality of Service (QoS). In this paper we investigate the behaviour of the traffic offered in a network regarding QoS variables: “probability of blocked switching” and “probability of finding B-terminals busy”. Numerical dependencies are shown graphically. A network dimensioning task (NDT) is formulated, solvability of the NDT and the necessary conditions for analytical solution are researched as well. International Journal "Information Technologies and Knowledge" Vol.2 / 2008 174 The received results make the network dimensioning/redimensioning, based on QoS requirements easily, due to clearer understanding of important variables behaviour. The described approach is applicable directly for every (virtual) circuit switching telecommunication system e.g. GSM, PSTN, ISDN and BISDN. For packet - switching networks, at various layers, proposed approach may be used as a comparison basis and when they work in circuit switching mode (e.g. VoIP).

The reliability mathematical model of load-sharing parallel systems based on fatigue cumulative damage

Conventional reliability models for parallel systems are not applicable for the analysis of parallel systems with load transfer and sharing. In this short communication, firstly, the dependent failures of parallel systems are analyzed, and the reliability model of load-sharing parallel system is presented based on Miner cumulative damage theory and the full probability formula. Secondly, the parallel system reliability is calculated by Monte Carlo simulation when the component life follows the Weibull distribution. The research result shows that the proposed reliability mathematical model could analyze and evaluate the reliability of parallel systems in the presence of load transfer.

Influence diagnostics for polyhazard models in the presence of covariates

In this paper, we present various diagnostic methods for polyhazard models. Polyhazard models are a flexible family for fitting lifetime data. Their main advantage over the single hazard models, such as the Weibull and the log-logistic models, is to include a large amount of nonmonotone hazard shapes, as bathtub and multimodal curves. Some influence methods, such as the local influence and total local influence of an individual are derived, analyzed and discussed. A discussion of the computation of the likelihood displacement as well as the normal curvature in the local influence method are presented. Finally, an example with real data is given for illustration.

General results for the beta-modified Weibull distribution

We study in detail the so-called beta-modified Weibull distribution, motivated by the wide use of the Weibull distribution in practice, and also for the fact that the generalization provides a continuous crossover towards cases with different shapes. The new distribution is important since it contains as special sub-models some widely-known distributions, such as the generalized modified Weibull, beta Weibull, exponentiated Weibull, beta exponential, modified Weibull and Weibull distributions, among several others. It also provides more flexibility to analyse complex real data. Various mathematical properties of this distribution are derived, including its moments and moment generating function. We examine the asymptotic distributions of the extreme values. Explicit expressions are also derived for the chf, mean deviations, Bonferroni and Lorenz curves, reliability and entropies. The estimation of parameters is approached by two methods: moments and maximum likelihood. We compare by simulation the performances of the estimates from these methods. We obtain the expected information matrix. Two applications are presented to illustrate the proposed distribution.

Scale-free network of a dengue epidemic

In this work we show that the dengue epidemic in the city of Singapore organized itself into a scale-free network of transmission as the 2000-2005 outbreaks progressed. This scale-free network of cluster comprised geographical breeding places for the aedes mosquitoes, acting as super-spreaders nodes in a network of transmission. The geographical organization of the network was analysed by the corresponding distribution of weekly number of new cases. Therefore, our hypothesis is that the distribution of dengue cases reflects the geographical organization of a transmission network, which evolved towards a power law as the epidemic intensity progressed until 2005. (c) 2007 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Tailoring of physical properties in highly filled experimental nanohybrid resin composites

Objectives. To assess the elastic modulus (EM), volumetric shrinkage (VS), and polymerization shrinkage stress (PSS) of experimental highly filled nanohybrid composites as a function of matrix composition, filler distribution, and density. Methods. One regular viscosity nanohybrid composite (Grandio, VOCO, Germany) and one flowable nanohybrid composite (Grandio Flow, VOCO) were tested as references along with six highly filled experimental nanohybrid composites (four Bis-GMA-based, one UDMA-based, and one Ormocer (R) -based). The experimental composites varied in filler size and density. EM values were obtained from the ""three-point bending"" load-displacement curve. VS was calculated with Archimedes` buoyancy principle. PSS was determined in 1-mm thick specimens placed between two (poly) methyl methacrylate rods (empty set = 6 mm) attached to an universal testing machine. Data were analyzed using oneway ANOVA, Tukey`s test (alpha = 0.05), and linear regression analyses. Results. The flowable composite exhibited the highest VS and PSS but lowest EM. The PSS was significantly lower with Ormocer. The EM was significantly higher among experimental composites with highest filler levels. No significant differences were found between all other experimental composites regarding VS and PSS. Filler density and size did not influence EM, VS, or PSS. Significance. Neither the filler configuration nor matrix composition in the investigated materials significantly influenced composite shrinkage and mechanical properties. The highest filled experimental composite seemed to increase EM by keeping VS and PSS low; however, matrix composition seemed to be the determinant factor for shrinkage and stress development. The Ormocer, with reduced PSS, deserves further investigation. Filler size and density did not influence the tested parameters. (C) 2011 Academy of Dental Materials. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Fatigue life and failure modes of crowns systems with a modified framework design

Objectives: To evaluate the effect of framework design on the fatigue life and failure modes of metal ceramic (MC, Ni-Cr alloy core, VMK 95 porcelain veneer), glass-infiltrated alumina (ICA, In-Ceram Alumina/VM7), and veneered yttria-stabilized tetragonal zirconia polycrystals (Y-TZP, IPSe.max ZirCAD/IPS e.max,) crowns. Methods: Sixty composite resin tooth replicas of a prepared maxillary first molar were produced to receive crowns systems of a standard (MCs, ICAs, and Y-TZPs, n = 10 each) or a modified framework design (MCm, ICAm, and Y-TZPm, n = 10 each). Fatigue loading was delivered with a spherical steel indenter (3.18 mm radius) on the center of the occlusal surface using r-ratio fatigue (30-300 N) until completion of 10(6) cycles or failure. Fatigue was interrupted every 125,000 cycles for damage evaluation. Weibull distribution fits and contour plots were used for examining differences between groups. Failure mode was evaluated by light polarized and SEM microscopy. Results: Weibull analysis showed the highest fatigue life for MC crowns regardless of framework design. No significant difference (confidence bound overlaps) was observed between ICA and Y-TZP with or without framework design modification. Y-TZPm crowns presented fatigue life in the range of MC crowns. No porcelain veneer fracture was observed in the MC groups, whereas ICAs presented bulk fracture and ICAm failed mainly through the veneer. Y-TZP crowns failed through chipping within the veneer, without core fractures. Conclusions: Framework design modification did not improve the fatigue life of the crown systems investigated. Y-TZPm crowns showed comparable fatigue life to MC groups. Failure mode varied according to crown system. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Failure modes of Y-TZP crowns at different cusp inclines

Objectives To compare the reliability of the disto-facial (DF) and mesio-lingual (ML) cusps of an anatomically correct zirconia (Y-TZP) crown system The research hypotheses tested were (1) fatigue reliability and failure mode are similar for the ML and DF cusps, (2) failure mode of one cusp does not affect the failure of the other Methods The average dimensions of a mandibular first molar crown were imported into CAD software, a tooth preparation was modelled by 1 5 mm marginal high reduction of proximal walls and occlusal surface by 2 0 mm The CAD-based tooth preparation was milled and used as a die to fabricate crowns (n = 14) with porcelain veneer on a 0 5 mm Y-TZP core. Crowns were cemented on composite reproductions of the tooth preparation The crowns were step-stress mouth motion fatigued with sliding (0 7 mm) a tungsten-carbide indenter of 6 25 mm diameter down on the inclines of either the DF or ML cusps Use level probability Weibull curve with use stress of 200 N and the reliability for completion of a mission of 50,000 cycles at 200 N load were calculated Results Reliability for a 200 N at 50,000 cycles mission was not different between tested cusps SEM imaging showed large cohesive failures within the veneer for the ML and smaller for the DF Fractures originated from the contact area regardless of the cusp loaded Conclusion No significant difference on fatigue reliability was observed between the DF compared to the ML cusp Fracture of one cusp did not affect the other (c) 2010 Elsevier Ltd All rights reserved

Effect of framework design on crown failure

This study evaluated the effect of core-design modification on the characteristic strength and failure modes of glass-infiltrated alumina (In-Ceram) (ICA) compared with porcelain fused to metal (PFM). Premolar crowns of a standard design (PFMs and ICAs) or with a modified framework design (PFMm and ICAm) were fabricated, cemented on dies, and loaded until failure. The crowns were loaded at 0.5 mm min(-1) using a 6.25 mm tungsten-carbide ball at the central fossa. Fracture load values were recorded and fracture analysis of representative samples were evaluated using scanning electron microscopy. Probability Weibull curves with two-sided 90% confidence limits were calculated for each group and a contour plot of the characteristic strength was obtained. Design modification showed an increase in the characteristic strength of the PFMm and ICAm groups, with PFM groups showing higher characteristic strength than ICA groups. The PFMm group showed the highest characteristic strength among all groups. Fracture modes of PFMs and of PFMm frequently reached the core interface at the lingual cusp, whereas ICA exhibited bulk fracture through the alumina core. Core-design modification significantly improved the characteristic strength for PFM and for ICA. The PFM groups demonstrated higher characteristic strength than both ICA groups combined.