982 resultados para Failure probability reduction


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Fiber reinforced polymer composites have been widely applied in the aeronautical field. However, composite processing, which uses unlocked molds, should be avoided in view of the tight requirements and also due to possible environmental contamination. To produce high performance structural frames meeting aeronautical reproducibility and low cost criteria, the Brazilian industry has shown interest to investigate the resin transfer molding process (RTM) considering being a closed-mold pressure injection system which allows faster gel and cure times. Due to the fibrous composite anisotropic and non homogeneity characteristics, the fatigue behavior is a complex phenomenon quite different from to metals materials crucial to be investigated considering the aeronautical application. Fatigue sub-scale specimens of intermediate modulus carbon fiber non-crimp multi-axial reinforcement and epoxy mono-component system composite were produced according to the ASTM 3039 D. Axial fatigue tests were carried out according to ASTM D 3479. A sinusoidal load of 10 Hz frequency and load ratio R = 0.1. It was observed a high fatigue interval obtained for NCF/RTM6 composites. Weibull statistical analysis was applied to describe the failure probability of materials under cyclic loads and fractures pattern was observed by scanning electron microscopy. (C) 2010 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

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The Nailed Box Beam structural efficiency is directly dependent of the flange-web joint behavior, which determines the partial composition of the section, as the displacement between elements reduces the effective rigidity of the section and changes the stress distribution and the total displacement of the section. This work discusses the use of Nailed Plywood Box Beams in small span timber bridges, focusing on the reliability of the beam element. It is presented the results of tests carried out in 21 full scale Nailed Plywood Box Beams. The analysis of maximum load tests results shows that it presents a normal distribution, permitting the characteristic values calculation as the normal distribution theory specifies. The reliability of those elements was analyzed focusing on a timber bridge design, to estimate the failure probability in function of the load level.

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This paper presents a methodology and a specialist tool for failure probability analysis of induction type watt-hour meters, considering the main variables related to their measurement degradation processes. The database of the metering park of a distribution company, named Elektro Electricity and Services Co., was used for determining the most relevant variables and to feed the data in the software. The modeling developed to calculate the watt-hour meters probability of failure was implemented in a tool through a user friendly platform, written in Delphi language. Among the main features of this tool are: analysis of probability of failure by risk range; geographical localization of the meters in the metering park, and automatic sampling of induction type watt-hour meters, based on a risk classification expert system, in order to obtain information to aid the management of these meters. The main goals of the specialist tool are following and managing the measurement degradation, maintenance and replacement processes for induction watt-hour meters. © 2011 IEEE.

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Pós-graduação em Odontologia Restauradora - ICT

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In this paper, the effects of uncertainty and expected costs of failure on optimum structural design are investigated, by comparing three distinct formulations of structural optimization problems. Deterministic Design Optimization (DDO) allows one the find the shape or configuration of a structure that is optimum in terms of mechanics, but the formulation grossly neglects parameter uncertainty and its effects on structural safety. Reliability-based Design Optimization (RBDO) has emerged as an alternative to properly model the safety-under-uncertainty part of the problem. With RBDO, one can ensure that a minimum (and measurable) level of safety is achieved by the optimum structure. However, results are dependent on the failure probabilities used as constraints in the analysis. Risk optimization (RO) increases the scope of the problem by addressing the compromising goals of economy and safety. This is accomplished by quantifying the monetary consequences of failure, as well as the costs associated with construction, operation and maintenance. RO yields the optimum topology and the optimum point of balance between economy and safety. Results are compared for some example problems. The broader RO solution is found first, and optimum results are used as constraints in DDO and RBDO. Results show that even when optimum safety coefficients are used as constraints in DDO, the formulation leads to configurations which respect these design constraints, reduce manufacturing costs but increase total expected costs (including expected costs of failure). When (optimum) system failure probability is used as a constraint in RBDO, this solution also reduces manufacturing costs but by increasing total expected costs. This happens when the costs associated with different failure modes are distinct. Hence, a general equivalence between the formulations cannot be established. Optimum structural design considering expected costs of failure cannot be controlled solely by safety factors nor by failure probability constraints, but will depend on actual structural configuration. (c) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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The influence of climate change on storm surges including increased mean sea level change and the associated insurable losses are assessed for the North Sea basin. In doing so, the newly developed approach couples a dynamical storm surge model with a loss model. The key element of the approach is the generation of a probabilistic storm surge event set. Together with parametrizations of the inland propagation and the coastal protection failure probability this enables the estimation of annual expected losses. The sensitivity to the parametrizations is rather weak except when the assumption of high level of increased mean sea level change is made. Applying this approach to future scenarios shows a substantial increase of insurable losses with respect to the present day. Superimposing different mean sea level changes shows a nonlinear behavior at the country level, as the future storm surge changes are higher for Germany and Denmark. Thus, the study exhibits the necessity to assess the socio-economic impacts of coastal floods by combining the expected sea level rise with storm surge projections.

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In tunnel construction, as in every engineering work, it is usual the decision making, with incomplete data. Nevertheless, consciously or not, the builder weighs the risks (even if this is done subjectively) so that he can offer a cost. The objective of this paper is to recall the existence of a methodology to treat the uncertainties in the data so that it is possible to see their effect on the output of the computational model used and then to estimate the failure probability or the safety margin of a structure. In this scheme it is possible to include the subjective knowledge on the statistical properties of the random variables and, using a numerical model consistent with the degree of complexity appropiate to the problem at hand, to make rationally based decisions. As will be shown with the method it is possible to quantify the relative importance of the random variables and, in addition, it can be used, under certain conditions, to solve the inverse problem. It is then a method very well suited both to the project and to the control phases of tunnel construction.

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La demanda de contenidos de vídeo ha aumentado rápidamente en los últimos años como resultado del gran despliegue de la TV sobre IP (IPTV) y la variedad de servicios ofrecidos por los operadores de red. Uno de los servicios que se ha vuelto especialmente atractivo para los clientes es el vídeo bajo demanda (VoD) en tiempo real, ya que ofrece una transmisión (streaming) inmediata de gran variedad de contenidos de vídeo. El precio que los operadores tienen que pagar por este servicio es el aumento del tráfico en las redes, que están cada vez más congestionadas debido a la mayor demanda de contenidos de VoD y al aumento de la calidad de los propios contenidos de vídeo. Así, uno de los principales objetivos de esta tesis es encontrar soluciones que reduzcan el tráfico en el núcleo de la red, manteniendo la calidad del servicio en el nivel adecuado y reduciendo el coste del tráfico. La tesis propone un sistema jerárquico de servidores de streaming en el que se ejecuta un algoritmo para la ubicación óptima de los contenidos de acuerdo con el comportamiento de los usuarios y el estado de la red. Debido a que cualquier algoritmo óptimo de distribución de contenidos alcanza un límite en el que no se puede llegar a nuevas mejoras, la inclusión de los propios clientes del servicio (los peers) en el proceso de streaming puede reducir aún más el tráfico de red. Este proceso se logra aprovechando el control que el operador tiene en las redes de gestión privada sobre los equipos receptores (Set-Top Box) ubicados en las instalaciones de los clientes. El operador se reserva cierta capacidad de almacenamiento y streaming de los peers para almacenar los contenidos de vídeo y para transmitirlos a otros clientes con el fin de aliviar a los servidores de streaming. Debido a la incapacidad de los peers para sustituir completamente a los servidores de streaming, la tesis propone un sistema de streaming asistido por peers. Algunas de las cuestiones importantes que se abordan en la tesis son saber cómo los parámetros del sistema y las distintas distribuciones de los contenidos de vídeo en los peers afectan al rendimiento general del sistema. Para dar respuesta a estas preguntas, la tesis propone un modelo estocástico preciso y flexible que tiene en cuenta parámetros como las capacidades de enlace de subida y de almacenamiento de los peers, el número de peers, el tamaño de la biblioteca de contenidos de vídeo, el tamaño de los contenidos y el esquema de distribución de contenidos para estimar los beneficios del streaming asistido por los peers. El trabajo también propone una versión extendida del modelo matemático mediante la inclusión de la probabilidad de fallo de los peers y su tiempo de recuperación en el conjunto de parámetros del modelo. Estos modelos se utilizan como una herramienta para la realización de exhaustivos análisis del sistema de streaming de VoD asistido por los peers para la amplia gama de parámetros definidos en los modelos. Abstract The demand of video contents has rapidly increased in the past years as a result of the wide deployment of IPTV and the variety of services offered by the network operators. One of the services that has especially become attractive to the customers is real-time Video on Demand (VoD) because it offers an immediate streaming of a large variety of video contents. The price that the operators have to pay for this convenience is the increased traffic in the networks, which are becoming more congested due to the higher demand for VoD contents and the increased quality of the videos. Therefore, one of the main objectives of this thesis is finding solutions that would reduce the traffic in the core of the network, keeping the quality of service on satisfactory level and reducing the traffic cost. The thesis proposes a system of hierarchical structure of streaming servers that runs an algorithm for optimal placement of the contents according to the users’ behavior and the state of the network. Since any algorithm for optimal content distribution reaches a limit upon which no further improvements can be made, including service customers themselves (the peers) in the streaming process can further reduce the network traffic. This process is achieved by taking advantage of the control that the operator has in the privately managed networks over the Set-Top Boxes placed at the clients’ premises. The operator reserves certain storage and streaming capacity on the peers to store the video contents and to stream them to the other clients in order to alleviate the streaming servers. Because of the inability of the peers to completely substitute the streaming servers, the thesis proposes a system for peer-assisted streaming. Some of the important questions addressed in the thesis are how the system parameters and the various distributions of the video contents on the peers would impact the overall system performance. In order to give answers to these questions, the thesis proposes a precise and flexible stochastic model that takes into consideration parameters like uplink and storage capacity of the peers, number of peers, size of the video content library, size of contents and content distribution scheme to estimate the benefits of the peer-assisted streaming. The work also proposes an extended version of the mathematical model by including the failure probability of the peers and their recovery time in the set of parameters. These models are used as tools for conducting thorough analyses of the peer-assisted system for VoD streaming for the wide range of defined parameters.

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The use of probabilistic methods to analyse reliability of structures is being applied to a variety of engineering problems due to the possibility of establishing the failure probability on rational grounds. In this paper we present the application of classical reliability theory to analyse the safety of underground tunnels.

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The aim of this contribution is to study the modifications of Cascade, comparing them with the original protocol on the grounds of a full set of parameters, so that the effect of these modifications can be fairly assessed. A number of simulations were performed to study not only the efficiency but also other characteristics of the protocol that are important for its practical application, such as the number of communications and the failure probability. Note that, although it is generally believed that the only price to pay for an improved efficiency is an increased interactivity, when looking at all the significant magnitudes a different view emerges, showing that, for instance, the failure probability eliminate some the supposed advantages of these improvements.

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The ambitious goals of increasing the efficiency, performance and power densities of transportation drives cannot be met with compromises in the motor reliability. For the insulation specialists the challenge will be critical as the use of wide-bandgap converters (WBG, based on SiC and GaN switches) and the higher operating voltages expected for the next generation drives will enhance the electrical stresses to unprecedented levels. It is expected for the DC bus in aircrafts to reach 800 V (split +/-400 V) and beyond, driven by the urban air mobility sector and the need for electrification of electro-mechanical/electro-hydraulic actuators (an essential part of the "More Electric Aircraft" concept). Simultaneously the DC bus in electric vehicles (EV) traction motors is anticipated to increase up to 1200 V very soon. The electrical insulation system is one of the most delicate part of the machine in terms of failure probability. In particular, the appearance of partial discharges (PD) is disruptive on the reliability of the drive, especially under fast repetitive transients. Extensive experimental activity has been performed to extend the body of knowledge on PD inception, endurance under PD activity, and explore and identify new phenomena undermining the reliability. The focus has been concentrated on the impact of the WGB-converter produced waveforms and the environmental conditions typical of the aeronautical sector on insulation models. Particular effort was put in the analysis at the reduced pressures typical of aircraft cruise altitude operation. The results obtained, after a critical discussion, have been used to suggest a coordination between the insulation PD inception voltage with the converter stresses and to propose an improved qualification procedure based on the existing IEC 60034-18-41 standard.

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Cardiomyocyte hypertrophy occurs in response to a variety of physiological and pathological stimuli. While pathological hypertrophy in heart failure is usually coupled with depressed contractile function, physiological hypertrophy associates with increased contractility. In the present study, we explored whether 8 weeks of moderate intensity exercise training would lead to a cardiac anti-remodelling effect in an experimental model of heart failure associated with a deactivation of a pathological (calcineurin/NFAT, CaMKII/HDAC) or activation of a physiological (Akt-mTOR) hypertrophy signalling pathway. The cardiac dysfunction, exercise intolerance, left ventricle dilatation, increased heart weight and cardiomyocyte hypertrophy from mice lacking alpha(2A) and alpha(2C) adrenoceptors (alpha(2A)/alpha(2C)ARKO mice) were associated with sympathetic hyperactivity induced heart failure. The relative contribution of Ca(2+)-calmodulin high-affinity (calcineurin/NFAT) and low-affinity (CaMKII/HDAC) targets to pathological hypertrophy of alpha(2A)/alpha(2C)ARKO mice was verified. While nuclear calcineurin B, NFATc3 and GATA-4 translocation were significantly increased in alpha(2A)/alpha(2C)ARKO mice, no changes were observed in CaMKII/HDAC activation. As expected, cyclosporine treatment decreased nuclear translocation of calcineurin/NFAT in alpha(2A)/alpha(2C)ARKO mice, which was associated with improved ventricular function and a pronounced anti-remodelling effect. The Akt/mTOR signalling pathway was not activated in alpha(2A)/alpha(2C)ARKO mice. Exercise training improved cardiac function and exercise capacity in alpha(2A)/alpha(2C)ARKO mice and decreased heart weight and cardiomyocyte width paralleled by diminished nuclear NFATc3 and GATA-4 translocation as well as GATA-4 expression levels. When combined, these findings support the notion that deactivation of calcineurin/NFAT pathway-induced pathological hypertrophy is a preferential mechanism by which exercise training leads to the cardiac anti-remodelling effect in heart failure.

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Protein kinase C beta II (PKC beta II) levels increase in the myocardium of patients with end-stage heart failure (HF). Also targeted overexpression of PKC beta II in the myocardium of mice leads to dilated cardiomyopathy associated with inflammation, fibrosis and myocardial dysfunction. These reports suggest a deleterious role of PKC beta II in HF development. Using a post-myocardial infarction (MI) model of HF in rats, we determined the benefit of chronic inhibition of PKC beta II on the progression of HF over a period of 6 weeks after the onset of symptoms and the cellular basis for these effects. Four weeks after MI, rats with HF signs that were treated for 6 weeks with the PKC beta II selective inhibitor (beta IIV5-3 conjugated to TAT(47-57) carrier peptide) (3 mg/kg/day) showed improved fractional shortening (from 21% to 35%) compared to control (TAT(47-57) carrier peptide alone). Formalin-fixed mid-ventricle tissue sections stained with picrosirius red, haematoxylin and eosin and toluidine blue dyes exhibited a 150% decrease in collagen deposition, a two-fold decrease in inflammation and a 30% reduction in mast cell degranulation, respectively, in rat hearts treated with the selective PKC beta II inhibitor. Further, a 90% decrease in active TGF beta 1 and a significant reduction in SMAD2/3 phosphorylation indicated that the selective inhibition of PKC beta II attenuates cardiac remodelling mediated by the TGF-SMAD signalling pathway. Therefore, sustained selective inhibition of PKC beta II in a post-MI HF rat model improves cardiac function and is associated with inhibition of pathological myocardial remodelling.

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Objectives To compare the reliability of the disto-facial (DF) and mesio-lingual (ML) cusps of an anatomically correct zirconia (Y-TZP) crown system The research hypotheses tested were (1) fatigue reliability and failure mode are similar for the ML and DF cusps, (2) failure mode of one cusp does not affect the failure of the other Methods The average dimensions of a mandibular first molar crown were imported into CAD software, a tooth preparation was modelled by 1 5 mm marginal high reduction of proximal walls and occlusal surface by 2 0 mm The CAD-based tooth preparation was milled and used as a die to fabricate crowns (n = 14) with porcelain veneer on a 0 5 mm Y-TZP core. Crowns were cemented on composite reproductions of the tooth preparation The crowns were step-stress mouth motion fatigued with sliding (0 7 mm) a tungsten-carbide indenter of 6 25 mm diameter down on the inclines of either the DF or ML cusps Use level probability Weibull curve with use stress of 200 N and the reliability for completion of a mission of 50,000 cycles at 200 N load were calculated Results Reliability for a 200 N at 50,000 cycles mission was not different between tested cusps SEM imaging showed large cohesive failures within the veneer for the ML and smaller for the DF Fractures originated from the contact area regardless of the cusp loaded Conclusion No significant difference on fatigue reliability was observed between the DF compared to the ML cusp Fracture of one cusp did not affect the other (c) 2010 Elsevier Ltd All rights reserved