加卸载响应比方法在结构灾变预测中的应用

加卸载响应比方法为非均匀脆性介质的灾变评估提供了新的思路,即用加载与卸载响应的差别来定量刻画介质的损伤程度.为了验证加卸载响应比方法应用于结构失效分析的有效性,首先运用加卸载响应比方法对意大利那不勒斯大学完成的1个2层楼房的加卸载实验进行分析,结果表明:在临近结构破坏之前加卸载响应比时间序列确实出现了异常明显的升高及回落;进而引入岩石破裂声发射实验进行研究,发现采用轴向应变做响应量计算得剑的加卸载响应比时间序列与楼房结构的响应比曲线在演化趋势上非常一致.进一步比较声发射能量率和宏观应做为响应得到的加卸载响应比时间序列,发现两者有着较为同步的稳定、异常、升高至峰值、急剧回落的演化过程.为了明确加卸载响应比与结构内部损伤的联系,基于损伤力学方法从理论上对此进行了分析,很明显加卸载响应比值在一定程度上可以反推结构的损伤程度,其演化可以为大型结构健康评估和工程灾变分析提供有益的参考及借鉴.

Computer simulation of the damage evolution of fiber-reinforced polypropylene-matrix composites with matrix defects

The damage evolution of fiber-reinforced polypropylene-matrix composites with matrix defects was studied via a Monte Carlo technique combined with a finite element method. A finite element model was constructed to predict the effects of various matrix defect shapes on the stress distributions. The results indicated that a small matrix defect had almost no effect on fiber stress distributions other than interfacial shear stress distributions. Then, a finite element model with a statistical distribution of the fiber strength was constructed to investigate the influences of the spatial distribution and the volume fraction of matrix defects on composite failure. The results showed that it was accurate to use the shear-lag models and Green's function methods to predict the tensile strength of composites even though the axial stresses in the matrix were neglected.

Aplicação de um método de correlação de imagem para a determinação da tenacidade à fratura em corte de adesivos estruturais

Qualquer estrutura hoje em dia deve ser resistente, robusta e leve, o que aumentou o interesse industrial e investigação nas ligações adesivas, nomeadamente pela melhoria das propriedades de resistência e fratura dos materiais. Com esta técnica de união, o projeto de estruturas pode ser orientado para estruturas mais leves, não só em relação à economia direta de peso relativamente às juntas aparafusas ou soldadas, mas também por causa da flexibilidade para ligar materiais diferentes. Em qualquer área da indústria, a aplicação em larga escala de uma determinada técnica de ligação supõe que estão disponíveis ferramentas confiáveis para o projeto e previsão da rotura. Neste âmbito, Modelos de Dano Coesivo (MDC) são uma ferramenta essencial, embora seja necessário estimar as leis MDC do adesivo à tração e corte para entrada nos modelos numéricos. Este trabalho avalia o valor da tenacidade ao corte (GIIC) de juntas coladas para três adesivos com ductilidade distinta. O trabalho experimental consiste na caracterização à fratura ao corte da ligação adesiva por métodos convencionais e pelo Integral-J. Além disso, pelo integral-J, é possível definir a forma exata da lei coesiva. Para o integral-J, é utilizado um método de correlação de imagem digital anteriormente desenvolvido para a avaliação do deslocamento ao corte do adesivo na extremidade da fenda (δs) durante o ensaio, acoplado a uma sub-rotina em Matlab® para a extração automática de δs. É também apresentado um trabalho numérico para avaliar a adequabilidade de leis coesivas triangulares aproximadas em reproduzir as curvas força-deslocamento (P-δ) experimentais dos ensaios ENF. Também se apresenta uma análise de sensibilidade para compreender a influência dos parâmetros coesivos nas previsões numéricas. Como resultado deste trabalho, foram estimadas experimentalmente as leis coesivas de cada adesivo pelo método direto, e numericamente validadas, para posterior previsão de resistência em juntas adesivas. Em conjunto com a caraterização à tração destes adesivos, é possível a previsão da rotura em modo-misto.

A comparative analysis of decision trees vis-à-vis other computational data mining techniques in automotive insurance fraud detection

The development and application of computational data mining techniques in financial fraud detection and business failure prediction has become a popular cross-disciplinary research area in recent times involving financial economists, forensic accountants and computational modellers. Some of the computational techniques popularly used in the context of - financial fraud detection and business failure prediction can also be effectively applied in the detection of fraudulent insurance claims and therefore, can be of immense practical value to the insurance industry. We provide a comparative analysis of prediction performance of a battery of data mining techniques using real-life automotive insurance fraud data. While the data we have used in our paper is US-based, the computational techniques we have tested can be adapted and generally applied to detect similar insurance frauds in other countries as well where an organized automotive insurance industry exists.

Estudo do aumento no diâmetro do corpo de um rebite a ser cravado em furos acima da tolerância de projeto

In this work are discussed the main types of rivets, their characteristics and applicability within the Aeronautical Industry branch. Here are highlighted the solid rivets, showing off its layout, forms and limits of installation, that are required by aviation regulators. The riveting is a popular and simple procedure of fixing and joining two or more parts, and like any other manufacturing process is subject to process deviations that in some situations are beyond the limits of tolerance. One of these deviations is when the hole diameter exceeds the one proposed in project and which is limited by the rule of edge distance. The overall objective here is to study a possible solution to this problem: the installation of a rivet that has his diameter previously increased by compression. Observe the hole filling after riveting, detect the presence of cracks, discover the yield curve of the fasteners and their the crushing limits for failure prediction are tools used to verify this proposal. They demonstrate, at the end of study, the inefficiency of this procedure, with results that go against the safe fixing of parts in a structure

Explaining Recent Connecticut Bank Failures

Significant numbers of U.S. commercial bank failures in the late 1980s and early 1990s raise important questions about bank performance. We develop a failure-prediction model for Connecticut banks to examine events in 1991 and 1992. We adopt data envelopment analysis to derive measures of managerial efficiency. Our findings can be briefly stated. Managerial inefficiency does not provide significant information to explain Connecticut bank failures. Portfolio variables do generally contain significant information.

A Reliable Downscaling of ECG Signals for the Detection of T wave Heterogeneity Features

In cardiovascular disease the definition and the detection of the ECG parameters related to repolarization dynamics in post MI patients is still a crucial unmet need. In addition, the use of a 3D sensor in the implantable medical devices would be a crucial mean in the assessment or prediction of Heart Failure status, but the inclusion of such feature is limited by hardware and firmware constraints. The aim of this thesis is the definition of a reliable surrogate of the 500 Hz ECG signal to reach the aforementioned objective. To evaluate the worsening of reliability due to sampling frequency reduction on delineation performance, the signals have been consecutively down sampled by a factor 2, 4, 8 thus obtaining the ECG signals sampled at 250, 125 and 62.5 Hz, respectively. The final goal is the feasibility assessment of the detection of the fiducial points in order to translate those parameters into meaningful clinical parameter for Heart Failure prediction, such as T waves intervals heterogeneity and variability of areas under T waves. An experimental setting for data collection on healthy volunteers has been set up at the Bakken Research Center in Maastricht. A 16 – channel ambulatory system, provided by TMSI, has recorded the standard 12 – Leads ECG, two 3D accelerometers and a respiration sensor. The collection platform has been set up by the TMSI property software Polybench, the data analysis of such signals has been performed with Matlab. The main results of this study show that the 125 Hz sampling rate has demonstrated to be a good candidate for a reliable detection of fiducial points. T wave intervals proved to be consistently stable, even at 62.5 Hz. Further studies would be needed to provide a better comparison between sampling at 250 Hz and 125 Hz for areas under the T waves.

Assuring virtual network reliability and resilience

A framework developed that uses reliability block diagrams and continuous-time Markov chains to model and analyse the reliability and availability of a Virtual Network Environment (VNE). In addition, to minimize the unpredicted failures and reduce the impact of failure on a virtual network, a dynamic solution proposed for detecting a failure before it occurs in the VNE. Moreover, to predict failure and establish a tolerable maintenance plan before failure occurs in the VNE, a failure prediction method for VNE can be used to minimise the unpredicted failures, reduce backup redundancy and maximise system performance.

Electrode kinetics of a nickel/cadmium cell and failure-mode prediction. Estimation of equivalent resistance of an internal short

A quantitative expression has been obtained for the equivalent resistance of an internal short in rechargeable cells under constant voltage charging.

Acute renal failure in critically ill patients : With special reference to prediction of outcome

Acute renal failure (ARF) is a clinical syndrome characterized by rapidly decreasing glomerular filtration rate, which results in disturbances in electrolyte- and acid-base homeostasis, derangement of extracellular fluid volume, and retention of nitrogenous waste products, and is often associated with decreased urine output. ARF affects about 5-25% of patients admitted to intensive care units (ICUs), and is linked to high mortality and morbidity rates. In this thesis outcome of critically ill patients with ARF and factors related to outcome were evaluated. A total of 1662 patients from two ICUs and one acute dialysis unit in Helsinki University Hospital were included. In study I the prevalence of ARF was calculated and classified according to two ARF-specific scoring methods, the RIFLE classification and the classification created by Bellomo et al. (2001). Study II evaluated monocyte human histocompatibility leukocyte antigen-DR (HLA-DR) expression and plasma levels of one proinflammatory (interleukin (IL) 6) and two anti-inflammatory (IL-8 and IL-10) cytokines in predicting survival of critically ill ARF patients. Study III investigated serum cystatin C as a marker of renal function in ARF and its power in predicting survival of critically ill ARF patients. Study IV evaluated the effect of intermittent hemodiafiltration (HDF) on myoglobin elimination from plasma in severe rhabdomyolysis. Study V assessed long-term survival and health-related quality of life (HRQoL) in ARF patients. Neither of the ARF-specific scoring methods presented good discriminative power regarding hospital mortality. The maximum RIFLE score for the first three days in the ICU was an independent predictor of hospital mortality. As a marker of renal dysfunction, serum cystatin C failed to show benefit compared with plasma creatinine in detecting ARF or predicting patient survival. Neither cystatin C nor plasma concentrations of IL-6, IL-8, and IL-10, nor monocyte HLA-DR expression were clinically useful in predicting mortality in ARF patients. HDF may be used to clear myoglobin from plasma in rhabdomyolysis, especially if the alkalization of diuresis does not succeed. The long-term survival of patients with ARF was found to be poor. The HRQoL of those who survive is lower than that of the age- and gender-matched general population.

State Vector: A New Approach to Prediction of the Failure of Brittle Heterogeneous Media and Large Earthquakes

The concept of state vector stems from statistical physics, where it is usually used to describe activity patterns of a physical field in its manner of coarsegrain. In this paper, we propose an approach by which the state vector was applied to describe quantitatively the damage evolution of the brittle heterogeneous systems, and some interesting results are presented, i.e., prior to the macro-fracture of rock specimens and occurrence of a strong earthquake, evolutions of the four relevant scalars time series derived from the state vectors changed anomalously. As retrospective studies, some prominent large earthquakes occurred in the Chinese Mainland (e.g., the M 7.4 Haicheng earthquake on February 4, 1975, and the M 7.8 Tangshan earthquake on July 28, 1976, etc) were investigated. Results show considerable promise that the time-dependent state vectors could serve as a kind of precursor to predict earthquakes.

Prediction of structural dynamic plastic shear failure by Johnson's damage number

It is proved that Johnson's damage number is the sole similarity parameter for dynamic plastic shear failure of structures loaded impulsively, therefore, dynamic plastic shear failure can be understood when damage number reaches a critical value. It is suggested that the damage number be generally used to predict the dynamic plastic shear failure of structures under various kinds of dynamic loads (impulsive loading, rectangular pressure pulse, exponential pressure pulse, etc.,). One of the advantages for using the damage number to predict such kind of failure is that it is conveniently used for dissimilar material modeling.

Prediction of failure and fracture mechanisms of polymeric composites using finite element analysis. Part 1:Particulate filled composites

Micro-mechanical analysis of polymeric composites provides a powerful means for the quantitative assessment of their bulk behavior. In this paper we describe a robust finite element model (FEM) for the micro-structural modeling of the behavior of particulate filled polymer composites under external loads. The developed model is applied to simulate stress distribution in polymer composites containing particulate fillers. Quantitative information about the magnitude and location of maximum stress concentrations obtained from these simulations is used to predict the dominant failure and crack growth mechanisms in these composites. The model predictions are compared with the available experimental data and also with the values found using other methods reported in the literature. These comparisons show the range of the validity of the developed model and its predictive potential.