Central bank intervention and exchange rate behaviour : empirical evidence for India

This paper examines the causal relationship between central bank intervention and exchange returns in India. Using monthly data from December 1997 to December 2011, the empirical results derived from the CCF approach of Cheung and Ng (1996) suggest that there is causality-in-variance from exchange rate returns to central bank intervention, but not vice versa. These findings are robust in the sense that they hold in cases where the returns were measured from either the spot rate or the forward rate. Therefore, the results of this paper suggest that the Indian central bank has intervened in the foreign exchange market to respond to exchange rate volatility, although the volatility has not been influenced by central bank intervention in the form of net purchases of foreign currency in the market.

Sources of fluctuations in parallel exchange rates and policy reform in Myanmar

Myanmar maintained a multiple exchange rate system, and the parallel market exchange rate was left untamed. In the last two decades, the Myanmar kyat exchange rate of the parallel market has exhibited the sharpest fluctuations among Southeast Asian currencies in real terms. Since the move to a managed float regime in April 2012, the question arises of whether exchange rate policies will be effective in stabilizing the real exchange rate. This paper investigates the sources of fluctuations in the real effective exchange rate using Blanchard and Quah’s (1989) structural vector autoregression model. As nominal shocks can be created by exchange rate policies, a persistent impact of a nominal shock implies more room for exchange rate policies. Decomposition of the fluctuations into nominal and real shocks indicates that the impact of nominal shocks is small and quickly diminishes, implying that complementary sterilization is necessary for effective foreign exchange market interventions.

Deposit dollarization in Myanmar

Myanmar has peculiar conditions of deposit dollarization that were shaped by administrative controls. On the one hand, restrictive controls encouraged the accumulation of foreign currency deposits (FCD). On the other hand, foreign currency loans (FCL) were not practiced officially; therefore, FCD was not utilized for credit. Given the adverse effects and persistence of dollarization in other dollarized economies and the recent recovery of local currency deposits in Myanmar, this paper opts for the prohibition of FCL and offers policy measures for de-dollarization.

FTA in international finance : impacts of exchange rates on FTA utilization

This paper investigates how exchange rates affect the utilization of a free trade agreement (FTA) scheme in trading. Changes in exchange rates affect FTA utilization by two ways. The first way is by changing the excess profits gained by utilizing the FTA scheme, and the second way is by promoting the compliance of rules of origin. Our theoretical models predict that the depreciation of exporters' currency against that of importers enhances the likelihood of FTA utilization through those two channels. Furthermore, our empirical analysis, which is based on rich tariff-line-level data on the utilization of FTA schemes in Korea's imports from ASEAN countries, supports the theoretical prediction. We also show that the effects are smaller for more differentiated products.

Impacts of foreign exchange auctions on the informal market rate in Myanmar

Since the abolition of the official peg and the introduction of a managed float in April 2012, the Central Bank of Myanmar has operated the daily two–way auctions of foreign exchange aimed at smoothing exchange rate fluctuations. Despite the reforms to the foreign exchange regime, however, informal trading of foreign exchange remains pervasive. Using the daily informal exchange rate and Central Bank auction data, this study examines the impacts of auctions on the informal market rate. First, a VAR analysis indicates that the official rate did not Granger cause the informal rate. Second, GARCH models indicate that the auctions did not reduce the conditional variance of the informal rate returns. Overall, the auctions have only a quite modest impact on the informal exchange rate.

Observation of ferromanganese deposits in the Baltic Sea

Baltic sediments have been studied by Behrens, Munthe, Küppers, Spethmann, Apstein, Sjöstedt, Pratje and the writer. The following types of sediments have been observed: varved and non-varved late-glacial clays, gray and black, post-glacial muds, and sands. The organic content of late-glacial clays ordinarily is less than 1.3 per cent, and of post-glacial muds more than 3 per cent. Sediments containing intermediate quantities are scarce. This can be explained as a result of the changed balance between organic and inorganic sedimentation when the glacial period ended; the abundance of fresh detritus then suddenly ceased and inorganic sedimentation became very much slower than before; consequently, the relative amount of organic detritus increased. As most of the material was not subjected to biological analysis, it has not been possible to distinguish different ages among post-glacial sediments.

Kelet-közép-európai devizaárfolyamok előrejelzése határidős árfolyamok segítségével (Forecasting the exchange rates of three Central-Eastern European currencies with forward exchange rates)

Írásunkban azt vizsgáljuk, hogy a hosszú lejáratú határidős árfolyamok stacionaritását feltételező hibakorrekciós modellek, amelyeknek korábbi számítások szerint - a világ devizapiaci forgalmának mintegy 75 százalékát kitevő fejlett ipari országokra alkalmazva - kitűnő a mintán kívüli előrejelző erejük, hogyan képesek három keletközép- európai ország devizaárfolyamát előrejelezni. A három vizsgálat alá vont deviza (cseh, magyar, lengyel) esetében az eredmények relációnként nagyon eltérnek, és összességében kedvezőtlenebbek, mint a fejlett ipari országokra kapott eredmények, amit a nem teljesen rugalmas árfolyamrezsim, a rendelkezésre álló adatsor rövidsége, az eurózóna-csatlakozáshoz kapcsolódó bizonytalanságok, a devizakockázati és a határidős kamatprémium létezése, továbbá a Balassa-Samuelson-hatás együttes befolyásaként tudunk értelmezni. JEL kód: E43, F31, F47. /===/ This paper studies whether models that assume long-maturity forward exchange rates are stationary (which proved in earlier studies to provide superior forecasting ability when applied to exchange rates of major currencies) are capable of forecasting the Euro exchange rates of three Central-East European currencies (the Czech koruna, Hungarian forint and Polish zloty). The results for the three currencies differ from each other and are generally much worse than those obtained earlier for major currencies. These unfavourable results are attributed to the consequences of managed exchange-rate systems, to the short time series available, to uncertainties related to future Euro-zone entry, to the existence of a foreign exchange and term premium, and to the Balassa–Samuelson effect.

Commitment language as a predictor of alcohol and marijuana use outcomes among adolescents in school -based group treatment

Despite widespread recognition of the problem of adolescent alcohol and other drug (AOD) abuse, research on its most common treatment modality, group work, is lacking. This research gap is alarming given that outcomes range from positive to potentially iatrogenic. This study sought to identify change mechanisms and/or treatment factors that are observable within group treatment sessions and that may predict AOD use outcomes. This NIH (F31 DA 020233-01A1) study evaluated 108, 10-19 year olds and the 19 school-based treatment groups to which they were previously assigned (R01 AA10246; PI: Wagner). Associations between motivational interviewing (MI) based change talk variables, group leader MI skills, and alcohol and marijuana use outcomes up to 12-months following treatment were evaluated. Treatment session audio recordings and transcripts (1R21AA015679-01; PI: Macgowan) were coded using a new discourse analysis coding scheme for measuring group member change talk (Amrhein, 2003). Therapist MI skills were similarly measured using the Motivational Interviewing Treatment Integrity instrument. Group member responses to commitment predicted group marijuana use at the 1-month follow up. Also, group leader empathy was significantly associated with group commitment for marijuana use at the middle and ending stages of treatment. Both of the above process measures were applied in a group setting for the first time. Building upon MI and social learning theory principles, group commitment and group member responses to commitment are new observable, in-session, process constructs that may predict positive and negative adolescent group treatment outcomes. These constructs, as well as the discourse analysis method and instruments used to measure them, raise many possibilities for future group work process research and practice.

Y como frenar la drogadicción

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Pare, que aquí me bajo : a la rueda rueda 1

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Cuando levamos anclas : cuanto valgo muerto

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No dividir el alma antioqueña

(Artículos periodísticos)

Fernando Castro Plaza, empezó jugando monopolio, hoy es presidente de Bancoquia

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Información, imaginación, innovación y gente : investigación de mercados

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Cirrhosis Diagnosis and Liver Fibrosis Staging: Transient Elastometry Versus Cirrhosis Blood Test.

International audience