Investment decision framework for infrastructure asset management: a probability-based approach

Australia’s civil infrastructure assets of roads, bridges, railways, buildings and other structures are worth billions of dollars. Road assets alone are valued at around A$ 140 billion. As the condition of assets deteriorate over time, close to A$10 billion is spent annually in asset maintenance on Australia's roads, or the equivalent of A$27 million per day. To effectively manage road infrastructures, firstly, road agencies need to optimise the expenditure for asset data collection, but at the same time, not jeopardise the reliability in using the optimised data to predict maintenance and rehabilitation costs. Secondly, road agencies need to accurately predict the deterioration rates of infrastructures to reflect local conditions so that the budget estimates could be accurately estimated. And finally, the prediction of budgets for maintenance and rehabilitation must provide a certain degree of reliability. A procedure for assessing investment decision for road asset management has been developed. The procedure includes: • A methodology for optimising asset data collection; • A methodology for calibrating deterioration prediction models; • A methodology for assessing risk-adjusted estimates for life-cycle cost estimates. • A decision framework in the form of risk map

Optimisation of maintenance expenditure for buildings : refurbish or demolish

With an increase in growing number of aging public building infrastructure globally, there is an opportunity for an efficient life care management rather then mere demolition and rebuild. By carefully implementing appropriate structural engineering practices with facility management, the whole of life cycle costs for public building assets can be optimised and public money can be saved and better utilised elsewhere. A need of decision support tool/methodology which can assist asset manager make better decision among demolish, refurbish, do nothing or rebuilt option for any typical building under consideration is growing in order to optimise maintenance funds. The paper is part of research project focusing on development of such methodology known as residual service life prediction. The paper is mainly focusing on following three major aspects of public building infrastructure; first, issues and challenges in optimisation of maintenance funds, second, residual service life prediction methodology and issues and challenges in the development of such methodology. The paper concludes with the authors’ observations and further research potentials

Risk assessment in life-cycle costing for road asset management

Queensland Department of Main Roads, Australia, spends approximately A$ 1 billion annually for road infrastructure asset management. To effectively manage road infrastructure, firstly road agencies not only need to optimise the expenditure for data collection, but at the same time, not jeopardise the reliability in using the optimised data to predict maintenance and rehabilitation costs. Secondly, road agencies need to accurately predict the deterioration rates of infrastructures to reflect local conditions so that the budget estimates could be accurately estimated. And finally, the prediction of budgets for maintenance and rehabilitation must provide a certain degree of reliability. This paper presents the results of case studies in using the probability-based method for an integrated approach (i.e. assessing optimal costs of pavement strength data collection; calibrating deterioration prediction models that suit local condition and assessing risk-adjusted budget estimates for road maintenance and rehabilitation for assessing life-cycle budget estimates). The probability concept is opening the path to having the means to predict life-cycle maintenance and rehabilitation budget estimates that have a known probability of success (e.g. produce budget estimates for a project life-cycle cost with 5% probability of exceeding). The paper also presents a conceptual decision-making framework in the form of risk mapping in which the life-cycle budget/cost investment could be considered in conjunction with social, environmental and political issues.

Road Asset Management Investment

Australias civil infrastructure assets of roads, bridges, railways, buildings and other structures are worth billions of dollars. To effectively manage road infrastructures, road agencies firstly need to optimise the expenditure for data collection whilst not jeopardising the reliability in using the optimised data to predict maintenance and rehabilitation costs. Secondly, road agencies need to accurately predict the deterioration rates of infrastructures to reflect local conditions so that the budget estimates can be accurately calculated. Finally, the prediction of budgets for maintenance and rehabilitation must be reasonably reliable.

Exercise-induced energy expenditure : implications for exercise prescription and obesity

Objective: Walking is commonly recommended to help with weight management. We measured total energy expenditure (TEE) and its components to quantify the impact of increasing exercise-induced energy expenditure (ExEE) on other components of TEE. Methods: Thirteen obese women underwent an 8-week walking group intervention. TEE was quantified using doubly labeled water, ExEE was quantified using heart rate monitors, daily movement was assessed by accelerometry and resting metabolic rate was measured using indirect calorimetry. Results: Four of the 13 participants achieved the target of 1500 kcal wk−1 of ExEE and all achieved 1000 kcal wk−1. The average ExEE achieved by the group across the 8 weeks was 1434 ± 237 kcal wk−1. Vigorous physical activity, as assessed by accelerometry, increased during the intervention by an average of 30 min per day. Non-exercise activity thermogenesis (NEAT) decreased, on average, by 175 kcal d−1 (−22%) from baseline to the intervention and baseline fitness was correlated with change in NEAT. Conclusions: Potential alterations in non-exercise activity should be considered when exercise is prescribed. The provision of appropriate education on how to self-monitor daily activity levels may improve intervention outcomes in groups who are new to exercise. Practice implications: Strategies to sustain incidental and light physical activity should be offered to help empower individuals as they develop and maintain healthy and long-lasting lifestyle habits.

Interactions between energy intake and expenditure in the development and treatment of obesity.

Summary There are four interactions to consider between energy intake (EI) and energy expenditure (EE) in the development and treatment of obesity. (1) Does sedentariness alter levels of EI or subsequent EE? and (2) Do high levels of EI alter physical activity or exercise? (3) Do exercise-induced increases in EE drive EI upwards and undermine dietary approaches to weight management and (4) Do low levels of EI elevate or decrease EE? There is little evidence that sedentariness alters levels of EI. This lack of cross-talk between altered EE and EI appears to promote a positive EB. Lifestyle studies also suggest that a sedentary routine actually offers the opportunity for over-consumption. Substantive changes in non exercise activity thermogenesis are feasible, but not clearly demonstrated. Cross talk between elevated EE and EI is initially too weak and takes too long to activate, to seriously threaten dietary approaches to weight management. It appears that substantial fat loss is possible before intake begins to track a sustained elevation of EE. There is more evidence that low levels of EI does lower physical activity levels, in relatively lean men under conditions of acute or prolonged semi-starvation and in dieting obese subjects. During altered EB there are a number of small but significant changes in the components of EE, including (i) sleeping and basal metabolic rate, (ii) energy cost of weight change alters as weight is gained or lost, (iii) exercise efficiency, (iv) energy cost of weight bearing activities, (v) during substantive overfeeding diet composition (fat versus carbohydrate) will influence the energy cost of nutrient storage by ~ 15%. The responses (i-v) above are all “obligatory” responses. Altered EB can also stimulate facultative behavioural responses, as a consequence of cross-talk between EI and EE. Altered EB will lead to changes in the mode duration and intensity of physical activities. Feeding behaviour can also change. The degree of inter-individual variability in these responses will define the scope within which various mechanisms of EB compensation can operate. The relative importance of “obligatory” versus facultative, behavioural responses -as components of EB control- need to be defined.

Psycho-markers of weight loss. The roles of TFEQ Disinhibition and Restraint in exercise-induced weight management

Eating behaviour traits, namely Disinhibition and Restraint, have the potential to exert an effect on food intake and energy balance. The effectiveness of exercise as a method of weight management could be influenced by these traits. Fifty eight overweight and obese participants completed 12-weeks of supervised exercise. Each participant was prescribed supervised exercise based on an expenditure of 500 kcal/session, 5 d/week for 12-weeks. Following 12-weeks of exercise there was a significant reduction in mean body weight (-3.26 ± 3.63 kg), fat mass (FM: -3.26 ± 2.64 kg), BMI (-1.16 ± 1.17 kg/m2)and waist circumference (WC: -5.0 ± 3.23 cm). Regression analyses revealed a higher baseline Disinhibition score was associated with a greater reduction in BMI and WC, while Internal Disinhibition was associated with a larger decrease in weight, %FM and WC. Neither baseline Restraint or Hunger were associated with any of the anthropometric markers at baseline or after 12-weeks. Furthermore, after 12-weeks of exercise, a decrease in Disinhibition and increase in Restraint were associated with a greater reduction in WC, whereas only Restraint was associated with a decrease in weight. Post-hoc analysis of the sub-factors revealed a decrease in External Disinhibition and increase in Flexible Restraint were associated with weight loss. However, an increase in Rigid Restraint was associated with a reduction in %FM and WC. These findings suggest that exercise-induced weight loss is more marked in individuals with a high level of Disinhibition. These data demonstrate the important roles that Disinhibition and Restraint play in the relationship between exercise and energy balance.

Exercise, appetite and weight management: understanding the compensatory responses in eating behaviour and how they contribute to variability in exercise-induced weight loss

Does exercise promote weight loss? One of the key problems with studies assessing the efficacy of exercise as a method of weight management and obesityis that mean data are presented and the individual variability in response is overlooked. Recent data have highlighted the need to demonstrate and characterise the individual variability in response to exercise. Do people who exercise compensate for the increase in energy expenditure via compensatory increases in hunger and food intake? The authors address the physiological, psychological and behavioural factors potentially involved in the relationship between exercise and appetite, and identify the research questions that remain unanswered. A negative consequence of the phenomena of individual variability and compensatory responses has been the focus on those who lose little weight in response to exercise; this has been used unreasonably as evidence to suggest that exercise is a futile method of controlling weight and managing obesity. Most of the evidence suggests that exercise is useful for improving body composition and health. For example, when exercise-induced mean weight loss is <1.0 kg, significant improvements in aerobic capacity (+6.3 ml/kg/min), systolic (−6.00 mm Hg) and diastolic (−3.9 mm Hg) blood pressure, waist circumference (−3.7 cm) and positive mood still occur. However, people will vary in their responses to exercise; understanding and characterising this variability will help tailor weight loss strategies to suit individuals.

International differences in management of physical activity data: Can they explain some of the difference in prevalence estimates?

Background: National physical activity data suggest that there is a considerable difference in physical activity levels of US and Australian adults. Although different surveys (Active Australia and BRFSS) are used, the questions are similar. Different protocols, however, are used to estimate “activity” from the data collected. The primary aim of this study was to assess whether the 2 approaches to the management of PA data could explain some of the difference in prevalence estimates derived from the two national surveys. Methods: Secondary data analysis of the most recent AA survey (N = 2987). Results: 15% of the sample was defined as “active” using Australian criteria but as “inactive” using the BRFSS protocol, even though weekly energy expenditure was commensurate with meeting current guidelines. Younger respondents (age < 45 y) were more likely to be “misclassified” using the BRFSS criteria. Conclusions: The prevalence of activity in Australia and the US appears to be more similar than we had previously thought.

Accountability beyond the headlines : why not-for-profit organisations need to communicate their own expenditure stories

This paper analyses the expenditure patterns of 97 Australian international aid and development organisations, and examines the extent to which they disclose information about their expenditure in order to discharge their accountability. Not-for-profit (NFP) expenditure attracts media attention, with perceptions of excessive costs potentially damaging stakeholder trust in NFP organisations. This makes it important for organisations to be proactive in communicating their expenditure stories to stakeholders, rather than being judged on their performance by standardised expenditure metrics. By highlighting what it costs to ensure longer-term operational capability, NFP organisations will contribute to the discharge of their financial accountability and play a part in educating all stakeholders about the dangers of relying on a single metric.

Role of resting metabolic rate and energy expenditure in hunger and appetite control : a new formulation

A long-running issue in appetite research concerns the influence of energy expenditure on energy intake. More than 50 years ago, Otto G. Edholm proposed that "the differences between the intakes of food [of individuals] must originate in differences in the expenditure of energy". However, a relationship between energy expenditure and energy intake within any one day could not be found, although there was a correlation over 2 weeks. This issue was never resolved before interest in integrative biology was replaced by molecular biochemistry. Using a psychobiological approach, we have studied appetite control in an energy balance framework using a multi-level experimental system on a single cohort of overweight and obese human subjects. This has disclosed relationships between variables in the domains of body composition [fat-free mass (FFM), fat mass (FM)], metabolism, gastrointestinal hormones, hunger and energy intake. In this Commentary, we review our own and other data, and discuss a new formulation whereby appetite control and energy intake are regulated by energy expenditure. Specifically, we propose that FFM (the largest contributor to resting metabolic rate), but not body mass index or FM, is closely associated with self-determined meal size and daily energy intake. This formulation has implications for understanding weight regulation and the management of obesity.

Surveillance Town: Social inclusion-exclusion through surveillance, ‘the dignity of work’ and income management

This paper discusses the situation of welfare claimants, constructed as faulty citizens and flawed welfare subjects at the receiving end of complex and multi-layered, private and public, forms of monitoring and surveillance aimed at securing socially responsible, consuming and compliant behaviours. In Australia as in many other western countries, the rise of neoliberal economic regimes with their harsh and often repressive treatment of welfare claimants operates in tandem with a growing arsenal of CCTV and assorted urban governance measures (Monahan 2008, Maki 2011). The capacity for all forms of surveillance to intensify social inequalities through the lens of CCTV and other modes and methods of electronic monitoring is amply demonstrated in the surveillance studies literature, raising fundamental questions around issues of social justice, equity and the expenditure of societal resources (Norris and Armstrong 1999, Lyon 1994, 2001, Loader 1996).

Public policy, disaster risk management and climate change adaptation

Public policymakers are caught in a dilemma : there is a growing list of urgent issues to address, at the same time that public expenditure is being cut. Adding to this dilemma is a system of government designed in the 19th century and competing theories of policymaking dating back to the 1950s. The interlinked problems of disaster risk management and climate change adaptation are cases in point. As the climate changes, there will be more frequent, intense and/or prolonged disasters such as floods and bushfires. Clearly a well integrated whole of government response is needed, but how might this be achieved? Further, how could academic research contribute to resolving this dilemma in a way that would produce something of theoretical interest as well as practical outcomes for policymakers? These are the questions addressed by our research via a comparative analysis of the 2009 Victorian bushfires, the 2011 Perth Hills bushfires, and the 2011 Brisbane floods. Our findings suggest that there is a need to: improve community engagement and communication; refocus attention on resilience; improve interagency communication and collaboration; and, develop institutional arrangements that support continual improvement and policy learning. These findings have implications for all areas of public policy theory and practice.

Structured contract strategies for capital and operations expenditure projects in the oil and gas industry

This project was a step forward in developing a 'descriptive theory' of contracting in the oil and gas industry that reflects the operating environment in which the project manager operates. This study investigates the existing processes and methods used in establishing contracts which are very often prescriptive, and not always appropriate or optimal for a given situation. This study contributes to contracting effectiveness or optimal contracting in the oil and gas industry.