Diferenças de expectativas em auditorias independentes: estudo comparativo sobre expectation gap, em cenário globalizado

O presente estudo objetiva analisar as características das diferenças de expectativas entre o público geral e os auditores independentes, no que diz respeito às demonstrações contábeis. Para isso, incorreu-se em uma pesquisa de artigos científicos em que os autores investigam o problema, cada um em determinado país, e as causas de sua ocorrência. Essa análise da literatura permitiu verificar as similaridades e sugestões para reduzir o fenômeno, em cenário globalizado, e compará-las. Os principais achados demonstram que, de maneira geral, os problemas são globalmente relacionados, assim como as sugestões, e que se torna essencial medidas para amenizar o problema. Tanto os auditores independentes quanto os usuários das demonstrações contábeis tem conhecimento da existência dessa diferença de expectativa, sendo uma ameaça para o bom andamento de uma economia capitalista o desconforto dos usuários caso ocorra à manutenção dessa diferença de expectativa. Dessa maneira, uma mudança na estrutura do cenário atual das empresas de auditoria independente torna-se fundamental.

An Online Expectation-Maximization Algorithm for Changepoint Models

Changepoint models are widely used to model the heterogeneity of sequential data. We present a novel sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) online Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm for estimating the static parameters of such models. The SMC online EM algorithm has a cost per time which is linear in the number of particles and could be particularly important when the data is representable as a long sequence of observations, since it drastically reduces the computational requirements for implementation. We present an asymptotic analysis for the stability of the SMC estimates used in the online EM algorithm and demonstrate the performance of this scheme using both simulated and real data originating from DNA analysis.

An Online Expectation-Maximization Algorithm for Changepoint Models

Changepoint models are widely used to model the heterogeneity of sequential data. We present a novel sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) online Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm for estimating the static parameters of such models. The SMC online EM algorithm has a cost per time which is linear in the number of particles and could be particularly important when the data is representable as a long sequence of observations, since it drastically reduces the computational requirements for implementation. We present an asymptotic analysis for the stability of the SMC estimates used in the online EM algorithm and demonstrate the performance of this scheme using both simulated and real data originating from DNA analysis.

An online expectation-maximisation algorithm for nonnegative matrix factorisation models

In this paper we formulate the nonnegative matrix factorisation (NMF) problem as a maximum likelihood estimation problem for hidden Markov models and propose online expectation-maximisation (EM) algorithms to estimate the NMF and the other unknown static parameters. We also propose a sequential Monte Carlo approximation of our online EM algorithm. We show the performance of the proposed method with two numerical examples. © 2012 IFAC.

A Monte Carlo expectation maximisation algorithm for multiple target tracking

In this paper, we present an expectation-maximisation (EM) algorithm for maximum likelihood estimation in multiple target models (MTT) with Gaussian linear state-space dynamics. We show that estimation of sufficient statistics for EM in a single Gaussian linear state-space model can be extended to the MTT case along with a Monte Carlo approximation for inference of unknown associations of targets. The stochastic approximation EM algorithm that we present here can be used along with any Monte Carlo method which has been developed for tracking in MTT models, such as Markov chain Monte Carlo and sequential Monte Carlo methods. We demonstrate the performance of the algorithm with a simulation. © 2012 ISIF (Intl Society of Information Fusi).

Two problems with variational expectation maximisation for time-series models

Variational methods are a key component of the approximate inference and learning toolbox. These methods fill an important middle ground, retaining distributional information about uncertainty in latent variables, unlike maximum a posteriori methods (MAP), and yet generally requiring less computational time than Monte Carlo Markov Chain methods. In particular the variational Expectation Maximisation (vEM) and variational Bayes algorithms, both involving variational optimisation of a free-energy, are widely used in time-series modelling. Here, we investigate the success of vEM in simple probabilistic time-series models. First we consider the inference step of vEM, and show that a consequence of the well-known compactness property of variational inference is a failure to propagate uncertainty in time, thus limiting the usefulness of the retained distributional information. In particular, the uncertainty may appear to be smallest precisely when the approximation is poorest. Second, we consider parameter learning and analytically reveal systematic biases in the parameters found by vEM. Surprisingly, simpler variational approximations (such a mean-field) can lead to less bias than more complicated structured approximations.

Modulation of pain ratings by expectation and uncertainty: Behavioral characteristics and anticipatory neural correlates.

Expectations about the magnitude of impending pain exert a substantial effect on subsequent perception. However, the neural mechanisms that underlie the predictive processes that modulate pain are poorly understood. In a combined behavioral and high-density electrophysiological study we measured anticipatory neural responses to heat stimuli to determine how predictions of pain intensity, and certainty about those predictions, modulate brain activity and subjective pain ratings. Prior to receiving randomized laser heat stimuli at different intensities (low, medium or high) subjects (n=15) viewed cues that either accurately informed them of forthcoming intensity (certain expectation) or not (uncertain expectation). Pain ratings were biased towards prior expectations of either high or low intensity. Anticipatory neural responses increased with expectations of painful vs. non-painful heat intensity, suggesting the presence of neural responses that represent predicted heat stimulus intensity. These anticipatory responses also correlated with the amplitude of the Laser-Evoked Potential (LEP) response to painful stimuli when the intensity was predictable. Source analysis (LORETA) revealed that uncertainty about expected heat intensity involves an anticipatory cortical network commonly associated with attention (left dorsolateral prefrontal, posterior cingulate and bilateral inferior parietal cortices). Relative certainty, however, involves cortical areas previously associated with semantic and prospective memory (left inferior frontal and inferior temporal cortex, and right anterior prefrontal cortex). This suggests that biasing of pain reports and LEPs by expectation involves temporally precise activity in specific cortical networks.