AIDS in Latin America: assessing the current status of the epidemic and the ongoing response

Background This article provides a summary of the current status of the HIV/AIDS epidemic in Latin America, as well as an outline of the diverse responses to it. Methods A search of international databases (Pubmed and ISI-Web of Science), regional databases (Scielo and Lilacs), regional and national documents and UNAIDS reports. Data are presented according to subregion. Results In Mexico HIV remains concentrated among urban men who have sex with men (MSM), and has been growing among injecting drug users (IDU) and in rural areas in relation to migration. An increasing proportion of women among those affected is observed in all countries in Central America, the most affected region, as well as increasing the impact on other vulnerable groups, such as indigenous populations. The Andean Countries have urban epidemics concentrated among MSM. In Peru, non-traditional vulnerable populations were identified. In the Southern Cone heterosexual transmission became more relevant, probably in connection with IDU epidemics and is increasingly affecting lower income groups. Incidence rates have been declining since 2002 in Brazil, the first country to guarantee free, universal access to antiretrovirals, where one-third of drug-nave patients are still initiating treatment at an advanced stage. Generally, access to treatment has improved as a result of support from the Global Fund and other initiatives, but there are concerns regarding coverage, equity and sustainability. Conclusions HIV is still concentrated among MSM in Latin America. Non-traditional vulnerable groups such as migrants and lower income populations, usually considered part of the general population, deserve attention. Programmes confronting sexual exclusion are still needed. Access to treatment has improved over time, but inequalities persist.

Chronic polyarthritis as the first manifestation of juvenile systemic lupus erythematosus patients

Objective: To evaluate the prevalence of chronic polyarthritis in juvenile systemic lupus erythematosus (JSLE) and to describe the manifestations, treatments, and outcomes in these patients. Methods: From January 1983 to July 2010, 5419 patients were followed up at the Pediatric Rheumatology Unit of the University Hospital and 271 (5%) of them had JSLE (American College of Rheumatology [ACR] criteria). `Rhupus` was classified as the overlap of juvenile idiopathic arthritis (International League of Associations for Rheumatology [ILAR] criteria) and JSLE. We evaluated demographic data, polyarthritis and other clinical manifestations, disease activity and damage, laboratory exams, radiographic findings, treatments, and outcomes. Results: The prevalence of chronic polyarthritis in this JSLE population was 2.6% (7/271). This articular involvement was the initial manifestation in all seven JSLE patients. The median duration of chronic polyarthritis was 11 months (range 2-15 months). Interestingly, rhupus with chronic polyarthritis and limitation of movement, presence of rheumatoid factor, autoantibodies, and/or radiographic abnormalities (juxtaarticular osteopenia, joint-space narrowing, or erosions) was evidenced in three patients. No patient had deformities of hands and feet associated with Jaccoud`s arthropathy or osteonecrosis. All patients were treated with nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs, naproxen 10-15 mg/kg/day) when polyarthritis diagnosis was established. Prednisone and antimalarials were administered at JSLE diagnosis. The three non-responsive rhupus patients were treated in conjunction with immunosuppressive drugs (methotrexate, azathioprine, and/or cyclosporine). Conclusions: Chronic polyarthritis was a rare lupus manifestation in active pediatric patients. The interesting overlap between chronic arthritis and lupus, called rhupus suggests a new entity with a different clinical profile and a poor response to treatment with NSAIDs alone. In addition, the occurrence of this association in JSLE patients could be classified as a clinical sub-group of JSLE with possible specific genetic determinants. Lupus (2011) 20, 960-964.

Multiple impacts of the HIV/AIDS epidemic on the aged in rural Uganda

This paper reports research conducted among theaged residents of a rural, Southwestern Ugandanvillage. It documents their knowledge ofHIV/AIDS, their perceptions of their own riskof infection, and the multiple impacts of thecurrent HIV/AIDS epidemic on their lives. Mostolder individuals have a sound understanding ofthe sexual transmission of HIV, and someconsider themselves to be at risk of infectionthrough having multiple sexual partners. Theyattempt to limit their children's exposure toHIV, but many of these children have left thevillage to live in urban areas of relativelyhigh HIV prevalence. The loss of adult childrendeprives the aged of any support these childrenmight have provided as their parents'capabilities declined with advancing age.Female-headed households were more affected inthis way than were male-headed households. TheAIDS epidemic has increased the number ofburials taking place in the village, and theiraccumulated costs, both in time and money, andcreated new hardships for the aged, who alsohave to cope with grief that accompaniescontinuing deaths among their children andtheir contemporaries' children.

Chloroquine or sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine for the treatment of uncomplicated, Plasmodium falciparum malaria during an epidemic in Central Java, Indonesia

A recent malaria epidemic in the Menoreh Hills of Central Java has increased concern about the re-emergence of endemic malaria on Java, which threatens the island's 120 million residents. A 28-day, in-vivo test of the efficacy of treatment of malaria with antimalarial drugs was conducted among 16 7 villagers in the Menoreh Hills. The treatments investigated, chloroquine (CQ) and sulfadoxine pyrimethamine (SP), constitute, respectively, the first- and second-line treatments for uncomplicated malaria in Indonesia. The prevalence of malaria among 1389 residents screened prior to enrollment was 33%. Treatment outcomes were assessed by microscopical diagnoses, PCR-based confirmation of the diagnoses, measurement of the whole-blood concentrations of CQ and desethylchloroquine (DCQ), and identification of the Plasmodium falciparum genotypes. The 28-day cumulative incidences of therapeutic failure for CQ and SP were, respectively, 47% (N = 36) and 22% (N = 50) in the treatment of P. falciparum, and 18% (N = 77) and 67% (N = 6) in the treatment of P. vivax. Chloroquine was thus an ineffective therapy for P. falciparum malaria, and the presence of CQ-resistant P. vivax and SP-resistant P. falciparum will further compromise efforts to control resurgent malaria on Java.

A note on quasi-stationary distributions of birth-death processes and the SIS logistic epidemic

For Markov processes on the positive integers with the origin as an absorbing state, Ferrari, Kesten, Martinez and Picco studied the existence of quasi-stationary and limiting conditional distributions by characterizing quasi-stationary distributions as fixed points of a transformation Phi on the space of probability distributions on {1, 2,.. }. In the case of a birth-death process, the components of Phi(nu) can be written down explicitly for any given distribution nu. Using this explicit representation, we will show that Phi preserves likelihood ratio ordering between distributions. A conjecture of Kryscio and Lefevre concerning the quasi-stationary distribution of the SIS logistic epidemic follows as a corollary.

Vector competence experiments with Rocio virus and three mosquito species from the epidemic zone in Brazil

First-generation progeny of field-collected Psorophora ferox, Aedes scapularis, and Aedes serratus from the Rocio encephalitis epidemic zone in S.Paulo State, Brazil, were tested for vector competency in the laboratory. Psorophora ferox and Ae. scapularis are susceptible to per os infection with Rocio virus and can transmit the virus by bite following a suitable incubation period. Oral ID50S for the two species (10(4.1) and 10(4.3) Vero cell plaque forming units, respectively) did not differ significantly. Infection rates in Ae. serratus never exceeded 36%, and, consequently, an ID50 could not be calculated for this species. It is unlikely that Ae. serratus is an epidemiologically important vector of Rocio virus. The utility of an in vitro feeding technique for demonstrating virus transmission by infected mosquitoes and difficulties encountered in working with uncolonized progeny of field-collected mosquitoes are discussed.

Stochastic effects in a seasonally forced epidemic model

The interplay of seasonality, the system's nonlinearities and intrinsic stochasticity, is studied for a seasonally forced susceptible-exposed-infective-recovered stochastic model. The model is explored in the parameter region that corresponds to childhood infectious diseases such as measles. The power spectrum of the stochastic fluctuations around the attractors of the deterministic system that describes the model in the thermodynamic limit is computed analytically and validated by stochastic simulations for large system sizes. Size effects are studied through additional simulations. Other effects such as switching between coexisting attractors induced by stochasticity often mentioned in the literature as playing an important role in the dynamics of childhood infectious diseases are also investigated. The main conclusion is that stochastic amplification, rather than these effects, is the key ingredient to understand the observed incidence patterns.

The AIDS epidemic in the Amazon region: a spatial case-control study in Rondonia, Brazil

OBJECTIVE To analyze spatial changes in the risk of AIDS and the relationship between AIDS incidence and socioeconomic variables in the state of Rondonia, Amazon region. METHODS A spatial, population case-control study in Rondonia, Brazil, based on 1,780 cases reported to the Epidemiological Surveillance System and controls based on demographic data from 1987 to 2006. The cases were grouped into five consecutive four-year periods. A generalized additive model was adjusted to the data; the dependent variable was the status of the individuals (case or control), and the independent variables were a bi-dimensional spline of the geographic coordinates and some municipality-level socioeconomic variables. The observed values of the Moran’s I test were compared to a reference distribution of values generated under conditions of spatial randomness. RESULTS AIDS risk shows a marked spatial and temporal pattern. The disease incidence is related to socioeconomic variables at the municipal level in Rondônia, such as urbanization and human capital. The highest incidence rates of AIDS are in municipalities along the BR-364 highway and calculations of the Moran’s I test show positive spatial correlation associated with proximity of the municipality to the highway in the third and fourth periods (p = 0.05). CONCLUSIONS Incidence of the disease is higher in municipalities of greater economic wealth and urbanization, and in those municipalities bisected by Rondônia’s main roads. The rapid development associated with the opening up of once remote regions may be accompanied by an increase in these risks to health.

Evaluation of dengue fever reports during an epidemic, Colombia

OBJECTIVE To assess the validity of dengue fever reports and how they relate to the definition of case and severity. METHODS Diagnostic test assessment was conducted using cross-sectional sampling from a universe of 13,873 patients treated during the fifth epidemiological period in health institutions from 11 Colombian departments in 2013. The test under analyses was the reporting to the National Public Health Surveillance System, and the reference standard was the review of histories identified by active institutional search. We reviewed all histories of patients diagnosed with dengue fever, as well as a random sample of patients with febrile syndromes. The specificity and sensitivity of reports were estimated for this purpose, considering the inverse of the probability of being selected for weighting. The concordance between reporting and the findings of the active institutional search was calculated using Kappa statistics. RESULTS We included 4,359 febrile patients, and 31.7% were classified as compatible with dengue fever (17 with severe dengue fever; 461 with dengue fever and warning signs; 904 with dengue fever and no warning signs). The global sensitivity of reports was 13.2% (95%CI 10.9;15.4) and specificity was 98.4% (95%CI 97.9;98.9). Sensitivity varied according to severity: 12.1% (95%CI 9.3;14.8) for patients presenting dengue fever with no warning signs; 14.5% (95%CI 10.6;18.4) for those presenting dengue fever with warning signs, and 40.0% (95%CI 9.6;70.4) for those with severe dengue fever. Concordance between reporting and the findings of the active institutional search resulted in a Kappa of 10.1%. CONCLUSIONS Low concordance was observed between reporting and the review of clinical histories, which was associated with the low reporting of dengue fever compatible cases, especially milder cases.

Increase in cases of malaria in Mozambique, 2014: epidemic or new endemic pattern?

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To describe the increase in cases of malaria in Mozambique. METHODS Cross-sectional study conducted in 2014, in Mozambique with national weekly epidemiological bulletin data. I analyzed the number of recorded cases in the 2009-2013 period, which led to the creation of an endemic channel using the quartile and C-Sum methods. Monthly incidence rates were calculated for the first half of 2014, making it possible to determine the pattern of endemicity. Months in which the incidence rates exceeded the third quartile or line C-sum were declared as epidemic months. RESULTS The provinces of Nampula, Zambezia, Sofala, and Inhambane accounted for 52.7% of all cases in the first half of 2014. Also during this period, the provinces of Nampula, Sofala and Tete were responsible for 54.9% of the deaths from malaria. The incidence rates of malaria in children, and in all ages, have showed patterns in the epidemic zone. For all ages, the incidence rate has peaked in April (2,573 cases/100,000 inhabitants). CONCLUSIONS The results suggest the occurrence of an epidemic pattern of malaria in the first half of 2014 in Mozambique. It is strategic to have a more accurate surveillance at all levels (central, provincial and district) to target prevention and control interventions in a timely manner.

Dengue epidemic in the state of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil: virological and epidemiological aspects

Laboratorial studies were carried out on 3178 patients with signs and symptoms suggestive of dengue infection from April 1986 to December 1987 in the State of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The epidemic had two peaks following the first virus isolation and affected the inhabitants of 17 counties. Both sex and all age groups were affected. Dengue virus type 1 was isolated from 1039 sera and the number of confirmed cases was increased to 1874 (59%) by MAC-ELISA. Isolation rate confirmed cases reached 80% in the specimens obtained until the 4th day after the onset of disease and viraemia ranged from 10 3.0 to 10(8.5) TCID50/ml.