Spatiotemporal behavior of the TIGGE medium-range ensemble forecasts

Using the recently-developed mean–variance of logarithms (MVL) diagram, together with the TIGGE archive of medium-range ensemble forecasts from nine different centres, an analysis is presented of the spatiotemporal dynamics of their perturbations, showing how the differences between models and perturbation techniques can explain the shape of their characteristic MVL curves. In particular, a divide is seen between ensembles based on singular vectors or empirical orthogonal functions, and those based on bred vector, Ensemble Transform with Rescaling or Ensemble Kalman Filter techniques. Consideration is also given to the use of the MVL diagram to compare the growth of perturbations within the ensemble with the growth of the forecast error, showing that there is a much closer correspondence for some models than others. Finally, the use of the MVL technique to assist in selecting models for inclusion in a multi-model ensemble is discussed, and an experiment suggested to test its potential in this context.

Low-order dynamical behavior in the martian atmosphere: Diagnosis of general circulation model results

The hypothesis of a low dimensional martian climate attractor is investigated by the application of the proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) to a simulation of martian atmospheric circulation using the UK Mars general circulation model (UK-MGCM). In this article we focus on a time series of the interval between autumn and winter in the northern hemisphere, when baroclinic activity is intense. The POD is a statistical technique that allows the attribution of total energy (TE) to particular structures embedded in the UK-MGCM time-evolving circulation. These structures are called empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs). Ordering the EOFs according to their associated energy content, we were able to determine the necessary number to account for a chosen amount of atmospheric TE. We show that for Mars a large fraction of TE is explained by just a few EOFs (with 90% TE in 23 EOFs), which apparently support the initial hypothesis. We also show that the resulting EOFs represent classical types of atmospheric motion, such as thermal tides and transient waves. Thus, POD is shown to be an efficient method for the identification of different classes of atmospheric modes. It also provides insight into the non-linear interaction of these modes.

Influence of the quasi-biennial oscillation on the extratropical winter stratosphere in an atmospheric general circulation model and in reanalysis data

The interannual variability of the stratospheric polar vortex during winter in both hemispheres is observed to correlate strongly with the phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in tropical stratospheric winds. It follows that the lack of a spontaneously generated QBO in most atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) adversely affects the nature of polar variability in such models. This study examines QBO–vortex coupling in an AGCM in which a QBO is spontaneously induced by resolved and parameterized waves. The QBO–vortex coupling in the AGCM compares favorably to that seen in reanalysis data [from the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40)], provided that careful attention is given to the definition of QBO phase. A phase angle representation of the QBO is employed that is based on the two leading empirical orthogonal functions of equatorial zonal wind vertical profiles. This yields a QBO phase that serves as a proxy for the vertical structure of equatorial winds over the whole depth of the stratosphere and thus provides a means of subsampling the data to select QBO phases with similar vertical profiles of equatorial zonal wind. Using this subsampling, it is found that the QBO phase that induces the strongest polar vortex response in early winter differs from that which induces the strongest late-winter vortex response. This is true in both hemispheres and for both the AGCM and ERA-40. It follows that the strength and timing of QBO influence on the vortex may be affected by the partial seasonal synchronization of QBO phase transitions that occurs both in observations and in the model. This provides a mechanism by which changes in the strength of QBO–vortex correlations may exhibit variability on decadal time scales. In the model, such behavior occurs in the absence of external forcings or interannual variations in sea surface temperatures.

Reduced-order dynamics of the Martian atmospheric dynamics

In this paper we explore the possibility of deriving low-dimensional models of the dynamics of the Martian atmosphere. The analysis consists of a Proper Orthogonal Decomposition (POD) of the atmospheric streamfunction after first decomposing the vertical structure with a set of eigenmodes. The vertical modes were obtained from the quasi-geostrophic vertical structure equation. The empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) were optimized to represent the atmospheric total energy. The total energy was used as the criterion to retain those modes with large energy content and discard the rest. The principal components (PCs) were analysed by means of Fourier analysis, so that the dominant frequencies could be identified. It was possible to observe the strong influence of the diurnal cycle and to identify the motion and vacillation of baroclinic waves.

Eventos extremos da zona de convergência intertropical sobre o Atlântico durante o período chuvoso da Amazônia oriental

Este trabalho reporta uma investigação observacional sobre as características climatológicas (período de 1985 a 2007) associadas aos eventos extremos da ZCIT observados sobre o Oceano Atlântico equatorial, procurando estabelecer as influências na variabilidade pluviométrica da Amazônia oriental, durante os meses de fevereiro, março e abril. Tais eventos foram selecionados objetivamente através da análise de Funções Ortogonais Empíricas e os padrões oceano-atmosfera associados aos eventos da ZCIT, bem como seus impactos na precipitação da Amazônia oriental, foram investigados com base em composições mensais. Os resultados evidenciaram algumas diferenças mensais, principalmente no padrão da circulação atmosférica em 200 hPa e na configuração vertical da circulação troposférica meridional associada à célula de Hadley equatorial. Quanto à estrutura dinâmica dos padrões oceano-atmosfera observada nos meses de fevereiro, março e abril, basicamente evidenciou-se que a ZCIT forma-se sobre o Oceano Atlântico equatorial numa região de confluência dos ventos alísios de sudeste e nordeste, coincidente com áreas contendo TSM anomalamente quente, movimento vertical ascendente associado à célula de Hadley, com divergência do vento em altos níveis. Os impactos de tais eventos na variabilidade espacial da precipitação sobre a Amazônia oriental mostrou que os principais estados afetados pela ZCIT são: Amapá, Pará e Maranhão. Adicionalmente, relatam-se alguns impactos sócio-ambientais (enchentes, alagamentos, queda de árvores, proliferação de doenças, entre outros) que ocorreram na Região Metropolitana de Belém, associados a ocorrência dos eventos extremos da ZCIT selecionados neste trabalho.

The response of the Sao Paulo Continental Shelf, Brazil, to synoptic winds

The response of the Sao Paulo Continental Shelf (SPCS) to synoptic wind forcing has been analyzed. Two different methods are used for this purpose, one based on hydrographic data, bottom topography, and geographical characteristics, and a second on analyzing currentmeter data directly and using empirical orthogonal functions. Both methods show similar results for an essentially barotropic shelf. The SPCS response in the subinertial frequency band appears to be trapped on the continental shelf. Numerical experiments have also been carried out showing results that qualitatively agree with the observations, including the velocity component parallel to the coastline.

Downwelling spectral irradiance as measured in different depths, remote sensing reflectance and phytoplankton pigment concentration during POLARSTERN cruises ANT-XXIV/1, ANT-XXIV/4, ANT-XXVI/4 and Maria S. Merian cruise MSM18/3

The composition and abundance of algal pigments provide information on phytoplankton community characteristics such as photoacclimation, overall biomass and taxonomic composition. In particular, pigments play a major role in photoprotection and in the light-driven part of photosynthesis. Most phytoplankton pigments can be measured by high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) techniques applied to filtered water samples. This method, as well as other laboratory analyses, is time consuming and therefore limits the number of samples that can be processed in a given time. In order to receive information on phytoplankton pigment composition with a higher temporal and spatial resolution, we have developed a method to assess pigment concentrations from continuous optical measurements. The method applies an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis to remote-sensing reflectance data derived from ship-based hyperspectral underwater radiometry and from multispectral satellite data (using the Medium Resolution Imaging Spectrometer - MERIS - Polymer product developed by Steinmetz et al., 2011, doi:10.1364/OE.19.009783) measured in the Atlantic Ocean. Subsequently we developed multiple linear regression models with measured (collocated) pigment concentrations as the response variable and EOF loadings as predictor variables. The model results show that surface concentrations of a suite of pigments and pigment groups can be well predicted from the ship-based reflectance measurements, even when only a multispectral resolution is chosen (i.e., eight bands, similar to those used by MERIS). Based on the MERIS reflectance data, concentrations of total and monovinyl chlorophyll a and the groups of photoprotective and photosynthetic carotenoids can be predicted with high quality. As a demonstration of the utility of the approach, the fitted model based on satellite reflectance data as input was applied to 1 month of MERIS Polymer data to predict the concentration of those pigment groups for the whole eastern tropical Atlantic area. Bootstrapping explorations of cross-validation error indicate that the method can produce reliable predictions with relatively small data sets (e.g., < 50 collocated values of reflectance and pigment concentration). The method allows for the derivation of time series from continuous reflectance data of various pigment groups at various regions, which can be used to study variability and change of phytoplankton composition and photophysiology.

Potential functions for hydrogen bond interactions - IV. Minimum Energy Conformation of the α-Helical Structure of PoIy-L-Alanine

Making use of the empirical potential functions for peptide NH .. O bonds, developed in this laboratory, the relative stabilities of the rightand left-handed α-helical structures of poly-L-alanine have been investigated, by calculating their conformational energies (V). The value of Vmin of the right-handed helix (αP) is about - 10.4 kcal/mole, and that of the left-handed helix (αM) is about - 9.6 kcal/mole, showing that the former is lower in energy by 0.8 kcal/mole. The helical parameters of the stable conformation of αP are n ∼ 3.6 and h ∼ 1.5 Å. The hydrogen bond of length 2.85 Å and nonlinearity of about 10° adds about 4.0 kcal/ mole to the stabilising energy of the helix in the minimum enregy region. The energy minimum is not sharply defined, but occurs over a long valley, suggesting that a distribution of conformations (φ{symbol}, ψ) of nearly the same energy may occur for the individual residues in a helix. The experimental data of a-helical fibres of poly-L-alanine are in good agreement with the theoretical results for αP. In the case of proteins, the mean values of (φ{symbol}, ψ) for different helices are distributed, but they invariably occur within the contour for V = Vmin + 2 kcal/mole for αP.

Robust/Optimal Temperature Profile Control of a High-Speed Aerospace Vehicle Using Neural Networks

An approximate dynamic programming (ADP)-based suboptimal neurocontroller to obtain desired temperature for a high-speed aerospace vehicle is synthesized in this paper. A I-D distributed parameter model of a fin is developed from basic thermal physics principles. "Snapshot" solutions of the dynamics are generated with a simple dynamic inversion-based feedback controller. Empirical basis functions are designed using the "proper orthogonal decomposition" (POD) technique and the snapshot solutions. A low-order nonlinear lumped parameter system to characterize the infinite dimensional system is obtained by carrying out a Galerkin projection. An ADP-based neurocontroller with a dual heuristic programming (DHP) formulation is obtained with a single-network-adaptive-critic (SNAC) controller for this approximate nonlinear model. Actual control in the original domain is calculated with the same POD basis functions through a reverse mapping. Further contribution of this paper includes development of an online robust neurocontroller to account for unmodeled dynamics and parametric uncertainties inherent in such a complex dynamic system. A neural network (NN) weight update rule that guarantees boundedness of the weights and relaxes the need for persistence of excitation (PE) condition is presented. Simulation studies show that in a fairly extensive but compact domain, any desired temperature profile can be achieved starting from any initial temperature profile. Therefore, the ADP and NN-based controllers appear to have the potential to become controller synthesis tools for nonlinear distributed parameter systems.

Spatial and Temporal Variability of some Meteorological Parameters over Tropical Indian Ocean

The objective of the present study is to understand the spatial and temporal variability of sea surface temperature(SST), precipitable water, zonal and meridional components of wind stress over the tropical Indian Ocean to understand the different scales of variability of these features of Indian Ocean. Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) and wavelet analysis techniques are utilized to understand the standing oscillations and multi scale oscillations respectively. The study has been carried out over Indian Ocean and South Indian Ocean. For the present study, NCEP/NCAR(National Center for Environmental Prediction National Center for Atmospheric Research) reanalyzed daily fields of sea surface temperature, zonal and meridional surface wind components and precipitable water amount during 1960-1998 are used. The principle of EOF analysis and the methodology used for the analysis of spatial and temporal variance modes.