Stakeholder perceptions of event attribution in the loss and damage debate

In 2013 the Warsaw International Mechanism (WIM) for loss and damage (L&D) associated with climate change impacts was established under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). For scientists, L&D raises ques- tions around the extent that such impacts can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change, which may generate complex results and be controversial in the policy arena. This is particularly true in the case of probabilistic event attribution (PEA) science, a new and rapidly evolving field that assesses whether changes in the probabilities of extreme events are attributable to GHG emissions. If the potential applications of PEA are to be considered responsibly, dialogue between scientists and policy makers is fundamental. Two key questions are considered here through a literature review and key stakeholder interviews with representatives from the science and policy sectors underpinning L&D. These provided the opportunity for in-depth insights into stakeholders’ views on firstly, how much is known and understood about PEA by those associated with the L&D debate? Secondly, how might PEA inform L&D and wider climate policy? Results show debate within the climate science community, and limited understanding among other stakeholders, around the sense in which extreme events can be attributed to climate change. However, stake- holders do identify and discuss potential uses for PEA in the WIM and wider policy, but it remains difficult to explore precise applications given the ambiguity surrounding L&D. This implies a need for stakeholders to develop greater understandings of alternative conceptions of L&D and the role of science, and also identify how PEA can best be used to support policy, and address associated challenges.

Influence of Fluid Concentration on the Elevation of Boiling Point of Blackberry Juice

The rise in boiling point of blackberry juice was experimentally measured at soluble solids concentrations in the range of 9.4 to 58.4Brix and pressures between 4.9 103 and 9.0 104 Pa (abs.). Different approaches to representing experimental data, including the Duhring`s rule, a model similar to Antoine equation and other empirical models proposed in the literature were tested. In the range of 9.4 to 33.6Brix, the rise in boiling point was nearly independent of pressure, varying only with juice concentration. Considerable deviations of this behavior began to occur at concentrations higher than 39.1Brix. Experimental data could be best predicted by adjusting an empirical model, which consists of a single equation that takes into account the dependence of rise in boiling point on pressure and concentration.

Mining sequential causal patterns with user-specified skeletons in multi-sequence of event data

The approaches proposed in the past for discovering sequential patterns mainly focused on single sequential data. In the real world, however, some sequential patterns hide their essences among multi-sequential event data. It has been noted that knowledge discovery with either user-specified constraints, or templates, or skeletons is receiving wide attention because it is more efficient and avoids the tedious selection of useful patterns from the mass-produced results. In this paper, a novel pattern in multi-sequential event data that are correlated and its mining approach are presented. We call this pattern sequential causal pattern. A group of skeletons of sequential causal patterns, which may be specified by the user or generated by the program, are verified or mined by embedding them into the mining engine. Experiments show that this method, when applied to discovering the occurring regularities of a crop pest in a region, is successful in mining sequential causal patterns with user-specified skeletons in multi-sequential event data.

Analysis of satisfaction at Gallipoli on ANZAC day, 2007 : results of a survey of event participants

This paper explores the critical success factors of special events, in this case the Anzac Day commemorations at Gallipoli, Turkey. This event has become increasingly popular in recent years with crowd numbers growing to around 20,000 people traveling to attend the 2005 Dawn Service at historic Anzac Cove on Anzac day. The aim of this research is to investigate the success factors associated with Anzac Day commemorations at Gallipoli and to assess how these influence visitor satisfaction. Data was collected from 331 attendees of Anzac Day commemorations at Gallipoli while they were in transit from Gallipoli to Istanbul on 25 April 2007. The analysis of this data was undertaken using exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis as a basis to the development of a model of satisfaction using structural equation modeling. In this case constructs relating to amenities, transport, ceremonies and recommending behavior were found to be significant predictors of event satisfaction. These issues during the event were found to be of equal importance for both genders and all age groups.

Susceptibility of reproduction in female pigs to impairment by stress or elevation of cortisol

It is generally agreed that stress can impair reproduction. Furthermore, it is often thought that cortisol, which is secreted during stress as a result of activation of the hypothalamo-pituitary adrenal axis, is associated with this stress-induced impairment of reproduction. It has been hypothesized that reproduction in females is particularly susceptible to disruption by acute stress during the series of endocrine events that induce estrus and ovulation. Nevertheless, we found no support for this conjecture when we subjected female pigs to repeated acute stress or repeated acute elevation of cortisol during the period leading up to estrus and ovulation. Conversely, studies have demonstrated that prolonged stress and sustained elevation of cortisol can disrupt reproductive processes in female pigs. Nevertheless, in each study that demonstrated this effect, there were some animals subjected to the prolonged stressor or the sustained elevation of cortisol in which the reproductive parameters that were measured were not affected by the treatment. We propose that reproduction in female pigs is resistant to the effects of acute or repeated acute stress or acute or repeated acute elevation of cortisol even if these occur during the series of endocrine events that induce estrus and ovulation. Furthermore, while reproductive processes in some individuals are compromised, reproduction in a proportion of female pigs appears to be resistant to the effects of prolonged stress or sustained elevation of cortisol.

Reduced preprandial dipping accounts for rapid elevation of blood pressure and renal sympathetic nerve activity in rabbits fed a high-fat diet

Consumption of a high-fat diet (HFD) by rabbits results in increased blood pressure (BP), heart rate (HR), and renal sympathetic nerve activity (RSNA) within 1 wk. Here, we determined how early this activation occurred and whether it was related to changes in cardiovascular and neural 24-h rhythms. Rabbits were meal-fed a HFD for 3 wks, then a normal-fat diet (NFD) for 1 wk. BP, HR, and RSNA were measured daily in the home cage via implanted telemeters. Baseline BP, HR, and RSNA over 24 h were 71 ± 1 mm Hg, 205 ± 4 beats/min and 7 ± 1 normalized units (nu). The 24-h pattern was entrained to the feeding cycle and values increased from preprandial minimum to postprandial maximum by 4 ± 1 mm Hg, 51 ± 6 beats/min, and 1.6 ± .6 nu each day. Feeding of a HFD markedly diminished the preprandial dip after 2 d (79–125% of control; p < 0.05) and this reduction lasted for 3 wks of HFD. Twenty-four-hour BP, HR, and RSNA concurrently increased by 2%, 18%, and 22%, respectively. Loss of preprandial dipping accounted for all of the BP increase and 50% of the RSNA increase over 3 wks and the 24-h rhythm became entrained to the light-dark cycle. Resumption of a NFD did not alter the BP preprandial dip. Thus, elevated BP induced by a HFD and mediated by increased sympathetic nerve activity results from a reduction in preprandial dipping, from the first day. Increased calories, glucose, insulin, and leptin may account for early changes, whereas long-term loss of dipping may be related to increased sensitivity of sympathetic pathways.

Sustained but not repeated acute elevation of cortisol impaired the luteinizing hormone surge, estrus, and ovulation in gilts

We tested the hypothesis that sustained and repeated acute elevation of cortisol would impair the LH surge, estrus, and ovulation in gilts. Cortisol was injected intramuscularly, to achieve a sustained elevation of plasma concentrations of cortisol, or intravenously, to achieve an acute elevation of plasma concentrations of cortisol. Control gilts received i.m. injections of oil and i.v. injections of saline. These treatments were administered to gilts (n = 6 per treatment) at 12-h intervals from Days 7 to 11 of the estrous cycle until after estrus ceased or until Day 27 or 28 of the estrous cycle, whichever came first. The repeated acute elevation of cortisol had no effect on the LH surge, estrus, or ovulation. In contrast, when the elevation of cortisol was sustained, the LH surge, estrus, and ovulation were inhibited. We conclude that cortisol is capable of direct actions to impair reproductive processes in female pigs but that plasma concentrations of cortisol need to be elevated for a substantial period for this to occur.

Inhibition of the secretion of LH in ovariectomised pigs by sustained but not repeated acute elevation of cortisol in the absence but not the presence of oestradiol

Prolonged stress is known to impair reproduction. It has been proposed that reproduction will also be impaired when a severe acute stress occurs during a period of elevated plasma concentrations of oestradiol, such as during the follicular phase of the oestrous cycle. In this experiment, we hypothesised that repeated acute and sustained elevation of cortisol would suppress the secretion of LH in ovariectomised pigs and that these effects would be enhanced in the presence of oestradiol negative feedback. Cortisol (or vehicle) was administered 12 hourly to ovariectomised pigs (n=6/treatment) for 8 days in the absence of oestradiol treatment and for a further 8 days during treatment with oestradiol. Vehicle was administered to 'control' pigs, 10 or 20 mg cortisol was administered i.v. to pigs to produce 'repeated acute' elevation of cortisol and 250 mg cortisol was administered i.m. to pigs to give a 'sustained' elevation of cortisol. Both before and during treatment with oestradiol, plasma concentrations of LH were monitored on the day before treatment, on the 4th and 8th days of treatment and following an i.v. injection of GnRH at the end of the 8th day of treatment. The repeated acute elevation of cortisol did not impair any parameters of LH secretion (i.e. mean plasma concentrations of LH, pulse amplitude or frequency, pre-LH pulse nadir or the LH response to GnRH) in the absence or in the presence of oestradiol. In contrast, when the elevation of cortisol was sustained, the mean plasma concentrations of LH and the pre-LH pulse nadir were significantly (P<0.05) lower on the 8th day of treatment than on the day before treatment and on the 4th day of treatment. Nevertheless, no other parameters of LH secretion were affected and these effects only occurred in the absence (not in the presence) of oestradiol. In conclusion, cortisol needed to be elevated for more than 4 days to impair the secretion of LH, and oestradiol did not enhance the impact of cortisol on LH secretion in ovariectomised pigs.

Application of extended multivariate modeling for information flow analysis of event related responses

Event related potential (ERP) analysis is one of the most widely used methods in cognitive neuroscience research to study the physiological correlates of sensory, perceptual and cognitive activity associated with processing information. To this end information flow or dynamic effective connectivity analysis is a vital technique to understand the higher cognitive processing under different events. In this paper we present a Granger causality (GC)-based connectivity estimation applied to ERP data analysis. In contrast to the generally used strictly causal multivariate autoregressive model, we use an extended multivariate autoregressive model (eMVAR) which also accounts for any instantaneous interaction among variables under consideration. The experimental data used in the paper is based on a single subject data set for erroneous button press response from a two-back with feedback continuous performance task (CPT). In order to demonstrate the feasibility of application of eMVAR models in source space connectivity studies, we use cortical source time series data estimated using blind source separation or independent component analysis (ICA) for this data set.

Influence of the elevation of the left ventricular diastolic pressure on the values of the first temporal derivative of the ventricular pressure (dP/dt)

PURPOSE: To assess the effects of the elevation of the left ventricular end-diastolic pressure (LVEDP) on the value of the 1st temporal derivative of the ventricular pressure (dP/dt). METHODS: Nineteen anesthetized dogs were studied. The dogs were mechanically ventilated and underwent thoracotomy with parasympathetic nervous system block. The LVEDP was controlled with the use of a perfusion circuit connected to the left atrium and adjusted to the height of a reservoir. The elevation of the LVEDP was achieved by a sudden increase in the height of a reservoir filled with blood. Continuous recordings of the electrocardiogram, the aortic and ventricular pressures and the dP/dt were performed. RESULTS: Elevation of the LVEDP did not result in any variation of the heart rate (167±16.0bpm, before the procedure; 167±15.5bpm, after the procedure). All the other variables assessed, including systolic blood pressure (128±18.3mmHg and 150±21.5mmHg), diastolic blood pressure (98±16.9mmHg and 115±19.8mmHg), LVEDP (5.5±2.49 and 9.3±3.60mmHg), and dP/dt (4,855 ± 1,082 mmHg/s and 5,149±1,242mmHg/s) showed significant increases following the expansion of the ventricular cavity. Although the elevation of the dP/dt was statistically significant, 6 dogs curiously showed a decrease in the values of dP/dt. CONCLUSION: Sudden elevation of the LVEDP resulted in increased values of dP/dt; however, in some dogs, this response was not uniform.

Early healing after elevation of the maxillary sinus floor applying a lateral access: a histological study in monkeys

AimTo describe the early healing within the void obtained after the elevation of the sinus mucosa and simultaneous implant installation without the use of any grafting material in monkeys.Material and methodsImplants were installed simultaneously with the elevation of the maxillary sinus using the lateral approach in eight monkeys without the use of grafting material. The healing after 4, 10, 20 and 30 days was evaluated in the area distal to the implants. Paraffin sections were prepared and analyzed using qualitative histological methods.ResultsThe healing process was initiated by the formation of a coagulum and followed by a provisional matrix and woven bone. Subsequently, a parallel-fiber bone replaced woven bone. The dimension of the elevated area shrank during the healing process. Sprouts of woven bone, present to a moderate extent after 4 days, were more numerous after 10 and 20 days. Newly formed bone originated from the sinus walls and septa, while there was no evidence of participation of the Schneiderian membrane in this process. After 30 days, the window access appeared to be closed by a layer of newly formed trabecular bone.ConclusionsThe coagulum that filled the void distal to the implant after simultaneous elevation of the sinus floor gave rise to newly formed bone. However, the void occupied by the coagulum shrank substantially. The Schneiderian membrane did not provide a basis for new bone formation in the early phase of healing.To cite this article:Scala A, Botticelli D, Rangel IG Jr, de Oliveira JA, Okamoto R, Lang NP. Early healing after elevation of the maxillary sinus floor applying a lateral access: a histological study in monkeys.Clin. Oral Impl. Res. 21, 2010; 1320-1326.doi: 10.1111/j.1600-0501.2009.01964.x.

Influence of Fluid Concentration on the Elevation of Boiling Point of Blackberry Juice

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)