Spatial electric load forecasting using a local movement approach

An agent based model for spatial electric load forecasting using a local movement approach for the spatiotemporal allocation of the new loads in the service zone is presented. The density of electrical load for each of the major consumer classes in each sub-zone is used as the current state of the agents. The spatial growth is simulated with a walking agent who starts his path in one of the activity centers of the city and goes to the limits of the city following a radial path depending on the different load levels. A series of update rules are established to simulate the S growth behavior and the complementarity between classes. The results are presented in future load density maps. The tests in a real system from a mid-size city show a high rate of success when compared with other techniques. The most important features of this methodology are the need for few data and the simplicity of the algorithm, allowing for future scalability. © 2009 IEEE.

Considering Urban Dynamics in spatial electric load forecasting

When dealing with spatio-temporal simulations of load growth inside a service zone, one of the most important problems faced by a Distribution Utility is how to represent the different relationships among different areas. A new load in a certain part of the city could modify the load growth in other parts of the city, even outside of its radius of influence. These interactions are called Urban Dynamics. This work aims to discuss how to implement Urban Dynamics considerations into the spatial electric load forecasting simulations using multi-agent simulations. To explain the approach, three examples are introduced, including the effect of an attraction load, the effect of a repulsive load, and the effect of several attraction/repulsive loads at the same time when considering the natural load growth. © 2012 IEEE.

Control preventivo dinamico de sistemas de energia electrica usando redespacho de generacion y corte de carga

A model for preventive control in electrical systems is presented, taking into account the dynamic aspects of the network. Among these aspects, the effects provoked by perturbations which cause oscillations in synchronous machine angles (transient stability), such as electric equipment outages and short circuits, are presented. The energy function is used to measure the stability of the system using a procedure defined as the security margin. The control actions employed are load shedding and generation reallocation. An application of the methodology to a system located in southern Brazil, which is composed of 10 synchronous machines, 45 busses, and 72 transmission lines. The results confirm the theoretical studies.

Multinodal Load Forecasting in Power Electric Systems using a Neural Network with Radial Basis Function

In this paper we present the results of the use of a methodology for multinodal load forecasting through an artificial neural network-type Multilayer Perceptron, making use of radial basis functions as activation function and the Backpropagation algorithm, as an algorithm to train the network. This methodology allows you to make the prediction at various points in power system, considering different types of consumers (residential, commercial, industrial) of the electric grid, is applied to the problem short-term electric load forecasting (24 hours ahead). We use a database (Centralised Dataset - CDS) provided by the Electricity Commission de New Zealand to this work.

Investigation of the relationship between load and loss factors for a Brazilian electric utility

With the considerable increase of the losses in electric utilities of developing countries, such as Brazil, there is an investigation for loss calculation methodologies, considering both technical (inherent of the system) and non-technical (usually associated to the electricity theft) losses. In general, all distribution networks know the load factor, obtained by measuring parameters directly from the network. However, the loss factor, important for the energy loss cost calculation, can only be obtained in a laborious way. Consequently, several formulas have been developed for obtaining the loss factor. Generally, it is used the expression that relates both factors, through the use of a coefficient k. Last reviews introduce a range of factor k within 0.04 - 0.30. In this work, an analysis with real life load curves is presented, determining new values for the coefficient k in a Brazilian electric utility. © 2006 IEEE.

Simple Load Balancing for Distributed Hash Tables

Distributed hash tables have recently become a useful building block for a variety of distributed applications. However, current schemes based upon consistent hashing require both considerable implementation complexity and substantial storage overhead to achieve desired load balancing goals. We argue in this paper that these goals can b e achieved more simply and more cost-effectively. First, we suggest the direct application of the "power of two choices" paradigm, whereby an item is stored at the less loaded of two (or more) random alternatives. We then consider how associating a small constant number of hash values with a key can naturally b e extended to support other load balancing methods, including load-stealing or load-shedding schemes, as well as providing natural fault-tolerance mechanisms.

Computational scheduling methods for integrating plug-in electric vehicles with power systems: a review

Traditional internal combustion engine vehicles are a major contributor to global greenhouse gas emissions and other air pollutants, such as particulate matter and nitrogen oxides. If the tail pipe point emissions could be managed centrally without reducing the commercial and personal user functionalities, then one of the most attractive solutions for achieving a significant reduction of emissions in the transport sector would be the mass deployment of electric vehicles. Though electric vehicle sales are still hindered by battery performance, cost and a few other technological bottlenecks, focused commercialisation and support from government policies are encouraging large scale electric vehicle adoptions. The mass proliferation of plug-in electric vehicles is likely to bring a significant additional electric load onto the grid creating a highly complex operational problem for power system operators. Electric vehicle batteries also have the ability to act as energy storage points on the distribution system. This double charge and storage impact of many uncontrollable small kW loads, as consumers will want maximum flexibility, on a distribution system which was originally not designed for such operations has the potential to be detrimental to grid balancing. Intelligent scheduling methods if established correctly could smoothly integrate electric vehicles onto the grid. Intelligent scheduling methods will help to avoid cycling of large combustion plants, using expensive fossil fuel peaking plant, match renewable generation to electric vehicle charging and not overload the distribution system causing a reduction in power quality. In this paper, a state-of-the-art review of scheduling methods to integrate plug-in electric vehicles are reviewed, examined and categorised based on their computational techniques. Thus, in addition to various existing approaches covering analytical scheduling, conventional optimisation methods (e.g. linear, non-linear mixed integer programming and dynamic programming), and game theory, meta-heuristic algorithms including genetic algorithm and particle swarm optimisation, are all comprehensively surveyed, offering a systematic reference for grid scheduling considering intelligent electric vehicle integration.

Sensitivity analysis by neural networks applied to power systems transient stability

This work presents a procedure for transient stability analysis and preventive control of electric power systems, which is formulated by a multilayer feedforward neural network. The neural network training is realized by using the back-propagation algorithm with fuzzy controller and adaptation of the inclination and translation parameters of the nonlinear function. These procedures provide a faster convergence and more precise results, if compared to the traditional back-propagation algorithm. The adaptation of the training rate is effectuated by using the information of the global error and global error variation. After finishing the training, the neural network is capable of estimating the security margin and the sensitivity analysis. Considering this information, it is possible to develop a method for the realization of the security correction (preventive control) for levels considered appropriate to the system, based on generation reallocation and load shedding. An application for a multimachine power system is presented to illustrate the proposed methodology. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Electrical load forecasting formulation by a fast neural network

The objective of this work is to develop a methodology for electric load forecasting based on a neural network. Here, backpropagation algorithm is used with an adaptive process that based on fuzzy logic and using a decaying exponential function to avoid instability in the convergence process. This methodology results in fast training, when compared to the conventional formulation of backpropagation algorithm. The results are presented using data from a Brazilian Electric Company, and shows a very good performance for the proposal objective.

Multi-Agent Simulation of Urban Social Dynamics for Spatial Load Forecasting

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Multi-Agent Framework for Spatial Load Forecasting

A multi-agent framework for spatial electric load forecasting, especially suited to simulate the different dynamics involved on distribution systems, is presented. The service zone is divided into several sub-zones, each subzone is considered as an independent agent identified with a corresponding load level, and their relationships with the neighbor zones are represented as development probabilities. With this setting, different kind of agents can be developed to simulate the growth pattern of the loads in distribution systems. This paper presents two different kinds of agents to simulate different situations, presenting some promissory results.

Identification of synchronous machine parameters using load rejection test data

This work shows a computational methodology for the determination of synchronous machines parameters using load rejection test data. By machine modeling one can obtain the quadrature parameters through a load rejection under an arbitrary reference, reducing the present difficulties. The proposed method is applied to a real machine.

Integrated planning of electric power distribution networks

In this work, a heuristic model for integrated planning of primary distribution network and secondary distribution circuits is proposed. A Tabu Search (TS) algorithm is employed to solve the planning of primary distribution networks. Evolutionary Algorithms (EA) are used to solve the planning model of secondary networks. The planning integration of both networks is carried out by means a constructive heuristic taking into account a set of integration alternatives between these networks. These integration alternatives are treated in a hierarchical way. The planning of primary networks and secondary distribution circuits is carried out based on assessment of the effects of the alternative solutions in the expansion costs of both networks simultaneously. In order to evaluate this methodology, tests were performed for a real-life distribution system taking into account the primary and secondary networks.

On the efficiency of an alternative codification for multiobjective service restoration in electric distribution networks

This paper proposes an alternative codification to solve the service restoration in electric power distribution networks using a SPEA2 multiobjective evolutionary algorithm, assuming the minimization of both the load not supplied and the number of switching operations involved in the restoration plan. Constrains as the line, power source and voltage drop limits in order to avoid the activation of protective devices are all included in the proposed algorithm. Experimental results have shown the convenience on considering these new representations in the sense of feasibility maintenance and also in the sense of better approximation to the Pareto set. ©2009 IEEE.