Multi-Agent Simulation of Urban Social Dynamics for Spatial Load Forecasting

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Multi-Agent Framework for Spatial Load Forecasting

A multi-agent framework for spatial electric load forecasting, especially suited to simulate the different dynamics involved on distribution systems, is presented. The service zone is divided into several sub-zones, each subzone is considered as an independent agent identified with a corresponding load level, and their relationships with the neighbor zones are represented as development probabilities. With this setting, different kind of agents can be developed to simulate the growth pattern of the loads in distribution systems. This paper presents two different kinds of agents to simulate different situations, presenting some promissory results.

Integrated planning of electric power distribution networks

In this work, a heuristic model for integrated planning of primary distribution network and secondary distribution circuits is proposed. A Tabu Search (TS) algorithm is employed to solve the planning of primary distribution networks. Evolutionary Algorithms (EA) are used to solve the planning model of secondary networks. The planning integration of both networks is carried out by means a constructive heuristic taking into account a set of integration alternatives between these networks. These integration alternatives are treated in a hierarchical way. The planning of primary networks and secondary distribution circuits is carried out based on assessment of the effects of the alternative solutions in the expansion costs of both networks simultaneously. In order to evaluate this methodology, tests were performed for a real-life distribution system taking into account the primary and secondary networks.

On the efficiency of an alternative codification for multiobjective service restoration in electric distribution networks

This paper proposes an alternative codification to solve the service restoration in electric power distribution networks using a SPEA2 multiobjective evolutionary algorithm, assuming the minimization of both the load not supplied and the number of switching operations involved in the restoration plan. Constrains as the line, power source and voltage drop limits in order to avoid the activation of protective devices are all included in the proposed algorithm. Experimental results have shown the convenience on considering these new representations in the sense of feasibility maintenance and also in the sense of better approximation to the Pareto set. ©2009 IEEE.

Optimal phasor measurement units placement for fault location on overhead electric power distribution feeders

This paper proposes a new approach for optimal phasor measurement units placement for fault location on electric power distribution systems using Greedy Randomized Adaptive Search Procedure metaheuristic and Monte Carlo simulation. The optimized placement model herein proposed is a general methodology that can be used to place devices aiming to record the voltage sag magnitudes for any fault location algorithm that uses voltage information measured at a limited set of nodes along the feeder. An overhead, three-phase, three-wire, 13.8 kV, 134-node, real-life feeder model is used to evaluate the algorithm. Tests show that the results of the fault location methodology were improved thanks to the new optimized allocation of the meters pinpointed using this methodology. © 2011 IEEE.

Spatial load forecasting using a demand propagation approach

A method for spatial electric load forecasting using multi-agent systems, especially suited to simulate the local effect of special loads in distribution systems is presented. The method based on multi-agent systems uses two kinds of agents: reactive and proactive. The reactive agents represent each sub-zone in the service zone, characterizing each one with their corresponding load level, represented in a real number, and their relationships with other sub-zones represented in development probabilities. The proactive agent carry the new load expected to be allocated because of the new special load, this agent distribute the new load in a propagation pattern. The results are presented with maps of future expected load levels in the service zone. The method is tested with data from a mid-size city real distribution system, simulating the effect of a load with attraction and repulsion attributes. The method presents good results and performance. © 2011 IEEE.

Preprocessing data for short-term load forecasting with a general regression neural network and a moving average filter

This paper proposes a filter based on a general regression neural network and a moving average filter, for preprocessing half-hourly load data for short-term multinodal load forecasting, discussed in another paper. Tests made with half-hourly load data from nine New Zealand electrical substations demonstrate that this filter is able to handle noise, missing data and abnormal data. © 2011 IEEE.

Short-term multinodal load forecasting in distribution systems using general regression neural networks

Multinodal load forecasting deals with the loads of several interest nodes in an electrical network system, which is also known as bus load forecasting. To perform this demand, it is necessary a technique that is precise, trustable and has a short-time processing. This paper proposes two methodologies based on general regression neural networks for short-term multinodal load forecasting. The first individually forecast the local loads and the second forecast the global load and individually forecast the load participation factors to estimate the local loads. To design the forecasters it wasn't necessary the previous study of the local loads. Tests were made using a New Zealand distribution subsystem and the results obtained are compatible with the ones founded in the specialized literature. © 2011 IEEE.

A proposal for reliability evaluation of components on electric power distribution system integrating probabilistic models and fuzzy inference systems

The system reliability depends on the reliability of its components itself. Therefore, it is necessary a methodology capable of inferring the state of functionality of these components to establish reliable indices of quality. Allocation models for maintenance and protective devices, among others, have been used in order to improve the quality and availability of services on electric power distribution systems. This paper proposes a methodology for assessing the reliability of distribution system components in an integrated way, using probabilistic models and fuzzy inference systems to infer about the operation probability of each component. © 2012 IEEE.

Multiobjective short-term planning of electric power distribution systems using NSGA-II

This paper presents a mixed integer nonlinear programming multiobjective model for short-term planning of distribution networks that considers in an integrated manner the following planning activities: allocation of capacitor banks; voltage regulators; the cable replacement of branches and feeders. The objective functions considered in the proposed model are: to minimize operational and investment costs and minimize the voltage deviations in the the network buses, subject to a set of technical and operational constraints. A multiobjective genetic algorithm based on a Non-Dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm (NSGA-II) is proposed to solve this model. The proposed mathematical model and solution methodology is validated testing a medium voltage distribution system with 135 buses. © 2013 Brazilian Society for Automatics - SBA.

Determining spatial resolution in spatial load forecasting using a grid-based model

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Estimation of a preference map of new consumers for spatial load forecasting simulation methods using a spatial analysis of points

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

O impacto energético e as emissões de CO2 dos veículos eléctricos em Portugal

Para a diminuição da dependência energética de Portugal face às importações de energia, a Estratégia Nacional para a Energia 2020 (ENE 2020) define uma aposta na produção de energia a partir de fontes renováveis, na promoção da eficiência energética tanto nos edifícios como nos transportes com vista a reduzir as emissões de gases com efeito de estufa. No campo da eficiência energética, o ENE 2020 pretende obter uma poupança energética de 9,8% face a valores de 2008, traduzindo-se em perto de 1800 milhões de tep já em 2015. Uma das medidas passa pela aposta na mobilidade eléctrica, onde se prevê que os veículos eléctricos possam contribuir significativamente para a redução do consumo de combustível e por conseguinte, para a redução das emissões de CO2 para a atmosfera. No entanto, esta redução está condicionada pelas fontes de energia utilizadas para o abastecimento das baterias. Neste estudo foram determinados os consumos de combustível e as emissões de CO2 de um veículo de combustão interna adimensional representativo do parque automóvel. É também estimada a previsão de crescimento do parque automóvel num cenário "Business-as-Usual", através dos métodos de previsão tecnológica para o horizonte 2010-2030, bem como cenários de penetração de veículos eléctricos para o mesmo período com base no método de Fisher- Pry. É ainda analisado o impacto que a introdução dos veículos eléctricos tem ao nível dos consumos de combustível, das emissões de dióxido de carbono e qual o impacto que tal medida terá na rede eléctrica, nomeadamente no diagrama de carga e no nível de emissões de CO2 do Sistema Electroprodutor Nacional. Por fim, é avaliado o impacto dos veículos eléctricos no diagrama de carga diário português, com base em vários perfis de carga das baterias. A introdução de veículos eléctricos em Portugal terá pouca expressão dado que, no melhor dos cenários haverão somente cerca de 85 mil unidades em circulação, no ano de 2030. Ao nível do consumo de combustíveis rodoviários, os veículos eléctricos poderão vir a reduzir o consumo de gasolina até 0,52% e até 0,27% no consumo de diesel, entre 2010 e 2030, contribuindo ligeiramente uma menor dependência energética externa. Ao nível do consumo eléctrico, o abastecimento das baterias dos veículos eléctricos representará até 0,5% do consumo eléctrico total, sendo que parte desse abastecimento será garantido através de centrais de ciclo combinado a gás natural. Apesar da maior utilização deste tipo de centrais térmicas para produção de energia, tanto para abastecimento das viaturas eléctricas, como para o consumo em geral, verifica-se que em 2030, o nível de emissões do sistema electroprodutor será cerca de 46% inferior aos níveis registados em 2010, prevendo-se que atinja as 0,163gCO2/kWh produzido pelo Sistema Electroprodutor Nacional devido à maior quota de produção das fontes de energia renovável, como o vento, a hídrica ou a solar.

Previsão de curto prazo do consumo de energia elétrica

Dissertação para a obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Electrotécnica - Ramo de Energia

Operointialueen huomioiminen risteilylaivan sähkötaseessa

Kiristyvät päästörajoitukset ja muuttuvat säädökset ovat muokanneet laivanrakennusalaa energiatehokkaampaan ja ympäristöystävällisempään suuntaan. Energiatehokkuutta tutkitaan yksittäisistä laiteratkaisuista laivan operointitasolle asti. Tämä työ on tehty osana STX Finland Oy:n laivojen energiatehokkuuden tutkimusta. Työn tarkoituksena oli uudistaa laivojen sähkötaseen laskennassa käytettyjä kuormitustaulukoita ja kehittää operointialueen vaikutuksia huomioiva laskentamenetelmä. Uudistuksen taustalla oli tieto operointialueiden ympäristöolosuhteiden vaikutuksista sähkönkulutukseen ja työn tarkoituksena oli mahdollistaa suunnittelun myöhäisemmässä vaiheessa tehtävä operointialuekohtainen sähkönkulutustarkastelu. Sähkötaseen laskenta haluttiin vastaamaan enemmän todellista sähkönkulutusta. Aikaisemmin käytetystä mitoitusperusteisesta laskennasta haluttiin siirtyä todellisempien kuormien arviointiin laitteiden ja muuntajien turhan ylimitoituksen poistamiseksi. Kuormitustaulukoiden toimintaa yksinkertaistettiin ja taulukoista tehtiin helpommin mukautuvia, jotta erilaisten operointitilanteiden vertailu olisi mahdollista. Perinteisen taselaskennan rinnalle kehitettiin operointialueiden vaikutuksia huomioivat laskentataulukot. Uudet taulukot huomioivat komponenttien sähkönkulutuksen prosentuaalisen muutoksen operointialueittain sekä yksilöllisesti että kulutusryhmittäin. Laskentataulukoiden yhteyteen tehtiin kuvaajat havainnollistamaan alueittaisia kulutuseroja.