The unintended [or intended?] political consequences of electoral systems: The case of Bolivia

The present study was concerned with evaluating one basic institution in Bolivian democracy: its electoral system. The study evaluates the impact of electoral systems on the interaction between presidents and assemblies. It sought to determine whether it is possible to have electoral systems that favor multipartism but can also moderate the likelihood of executive-legislative confrontation by producing the necessary conditions for coalition building. ^ This dissertation utilized the case study method as a methodology. Using the case of Bolivia, the research project studied the variations in executive-legislative relations and political outcomes from 1985 to the present through a model of executive-legislative relations that provided a typology of presidents and assemblies based on the strategies available to them to bargain with each other for support. A complementary model that evaluated the state of their inter-institutional interaction was also employed. ^ Results indicated that executive-legislative relations are profoundly influenced by the choice of the electoral system. Similarly, the project showed that although the Bolivian mixed system for legislative elections, and executive formula favor multipartism, these electoral systems do not necessarily engender executive-legislative confrontation in Bolivia. This was mainly due to the congressional election of the president, and the formulas utilized to translate the popular vote into legislative seats. However, the study found that the electoral system has also allowed for anti-systemic forces to emerge and gain political space both within and outside of political institutions. ^ The study found that government coalitions in Bolivia that are promoted by the system of congressional election of the president and the D'Hondt system to allocate legislative seats have helped ameliorate one of the typical problems of presidential systems in Latin America: the presence of a minority government that is blocked in its capacity to govern. This study was limited to evaluating the impact of the electoral system, as the independent variable, on executive-legislative interaction. However, the project revealed a need for more theoretical and empirical work on executive-legislative bargaining models in order to understand how institutional reforms can have an impact on the incentives of presidents and legislators to form coherent coalitions. ^

Estudio comparado de las barreras o umbrales electorales implícitos y explícitos en el sistema electoral

"...En el presente estudio se parte, en primera instancia, de la necesaria conceptualización del término, en general y particular, y en función de ello, posteriormente, a su tipificación, sistematización y análisis especifico en Latinoamérica, mientras que ofrece un panorama general de la aplicación de las barreras electorales explicitas en diferentes regiones del mundo, para luego analizar el caso colombiano en general y visualizar el impacto de la implementación de las barreras electorales explícitas a través del acto legislativo 01 de 2003 y sus efectos en los comicios nacionales de 2006."--introducción

Trends in National Party support

The National Party of Australia is under challenge. Will it be able to adapt and survive or will it become increasingly irrelevant in Australian politics? With population growth in some coastal and hinterland areas and decline in inland agricultural areas, the face of rural and regional Australia is changing. As a result, the National Party's traditional support is being eroded. Within the long-standing Coalition, the influence of the Nationals appears to be in decline, yet they continue to resist amalgamation with the Liberal Party.

Public Perceptions of Elections: An Australia-New Zealand Comparison

his collection of essays honouring the late Emeritus Keith Jackson addresses the public interest in New Zealand. This subject is of increasing importance at a time when politicians are grappling with serious issues that call into question the boundaries between the private and public spheres. The essays, by leading scholars and acknowledged experts in their field, reflect Keith's own preoccupations with institutional politics and with communication

Valence and spatial explanations for voting in the 2013 Australian election

This paper examines the 2013 Australian federal election to test two competing models of vote choice: spatial politics and valence issues. Using data from the 2013 Australian Election Study, the analysis finds that spatial politics (measured by party identification and self-placement on the left-right spectrum) and valence issues both have significant effects on vote choice. However, spatial measures are more important than valence issues in explaining vote choice, in contrast with recent studies from Britain, Canada and the United States. Explanations for these differences are speculative, but may relate to Australia’s stable party and electoral system, including compulsory voting and the frequency of elections. The consequently high information burden faced by Australian voters may lead to a greater reliance on spatial heuristics than is found elsewhere.

Voting games with incomplete information

We examine voting situations in which individuals have incomplete information over each others' true preferences. In many respects, this work is motivated by a desire to provide a more complete understanding of so-called probabilistic voting.

Chapter 2 examines the similarities and differences between the incentives faced by politicians who seek to maximize expected vote share, expected plurality, or probability of victory in single member: single vote, simple plurality electoral systems. We find that, in general, the candidates' optimal policies in such an electoral system vary greatly depending on their objective function. We provide several examples, as well as a genericity result which states that almost all such electoral systems (with respect to the distributions of voter behavior) will exhibit different incentives for candidates who seek to maximize expected vote share and those who seek to maximize probability of victory.

In Chapter 3, we adopt a random utility maximizing framework in which individuals' preferences are subject to action-specific exogenous shocks. We show that Nash equilibria exist in voting games possessing such an information structure and in which voters and candidates are each aware that every voter's preferences are subject to such shocks. A special case of our framework is that in which voters are playing a Quantal Response Equilibrium (McKelvey and Palfrey (1995), (1998)). We then examine candidate competition in such games and show that, for sufficiently large electorates, regardless of the dimensionality of the policy space or the number of candidates, there exists a strict equilibrium at the social welfare optimum (i.e., the point which maximizes the sum of voters' utility functions). In two candidate contests we find that this equilibrium is unique.

Finally, in Chapter 4, we attempt the first steps towards a theory of equilibrium in games possessing both continuous action spaces and action-specific preference shocks. Our notion of equilibrium, Variational Response Equilibrium, is shown to exist in all games with continuous payoff functions. We discuss the similarities and differences between this notion of equilibrium and the notion of Quantal Response Equilibrium and offer possible extensions of our framework.

Deputados e Prefeitos: o nacional e o local na estrutura de oportunidades políticas no Brasil

A elaboração dessa tese tem por finalidade contribuir para a discussão sobre o modelo de carreira política que vem se desenvolvendo no Brasil. O objetivo do trabalho é compreender a sua construção a partir da apreensão da lógica da tomada de decisão do legislador brasileiro na definição de sua trajetória profissional. Para isso, o estudo procurou estabelecer as motivações dos membros da Câmara dos Deputados diante das opções de carreira que se apresentam, no sentido de permanecer ou não na arena legislativa. A questão analisada é se a instituição está oferecendo atrativos aos seus membros para sua permanência, ou se estes estão alocados em outras instâncias. A hipótese-teste é a de que o Poder Executivo tem atraído os membros do Legislativo, desenhando um padrão de carreira política no qual as arenas se intercalariam Executivo e Legislativo assim como as esferas federal, estadual e municipal. A tese está estruturada em uma revisão das literaturas estrangeira e brasileira sobre carreira política, apresentando também um exame dos modelos de recrutamento e permanência na carreira parlamentar. São consideradas as influências de dois elementos estruturais da lógica política no Brasil. O primeiro é a estrutura federativa adotada no país a partir da Constituição de 1988 e o segundo é o seu sistema eleitoral e partidário, sobretudo o papel dos partidos políticos e do tipo de recrutamento de candidatos na adoção das estratégias de carreira de seus representantes. Procura-se entender o modo pelo qual o quadro criado pela conjunção dessas características gera, viabiliza ou impede a construção das carreiras políticas no Brasil e das ambições que as determinam. Os dados coletados na pesquisa compreendem as eleições para a Câmara dos Deputados e para a Prefeitura em todos os municípios do Brasil ocorridas nos últimos 20 anos. São analisadas as trajetórias prévias e futuras dos deputados federais que, durante o mandato, se candidataram ao cargo de Prefeito. A premissa aqui utilizada vem da visão de que sair do Parlamento pode ser a melhor estratégia − do ponto de vista eleitoral − para a ele poder retornar e a melhor estratégia para aqueles que desejam prosseguir em suas carreiras com maior segurança. E obter cargos junto ao Executivo pode dar acesso a recursos que não estão disponíveis aos parlamentares.

'The Aftermath of the Annan Plan Referendums' Cross-Voting Moderation for Cyprus

This article examines recent developments in the Cyprus negotiations and suggests a number of changes to the proposed electoral system. Specifically, cross-voting and other electoral methods that encourage coalition-building across ethnic communities might add significantly to the functionality of the Annan Plan. Combined with other innovative mechanisms already in the plan, cross-voting could force political parties to seriously take into account the interests and concerns of the two Cypriot communities, an element that is currently missing from both the Turkish Cypriot (TC) and Greek Cypriot (GC) political systems. Special conditions on the island, as well as the way most political parties operated in the critical pre-April 2004 referendum period, suggest the need for this amendment. Although this study respects the consociational logic of the Annan Plan, it supplements consociationalism with elements that foster integration and inter-dependence between the two communities and their voters. The article also reviews the postreferendum developments in Cyprus which might have worrisome future implications, not only for its two communities, but also for EU enlargement in general. Cyprus both holds one of the keys to Turkey's entrance into the EU and is a litmus test for the Euro-Atlantic nexus and its capacity to pacify and integrate ethnically divided societies in Europe and elsewhere.

Increasingly ‘Irrational’ Party Systems: Evidence that There Are Increasingly More Than Two at the District level

Recent work has noted an increase in the number of parties at the national level in both proportional and majoritarian electoral systems. While the conventional wisdom maintains that the incentives provided by the electoral system will prevent the number of parties at the district level from exceeding two in majoritarian systems, the evidence presented here demonstrates otherwise. I argue that this has occurred because the number of cleavages articulated by parties has increased as several third parties have begun articulating cleavages that are not well represented by the two larger parties.

Élections expérimentales : la désertion stratégique et la participation sous différents modes de scrutin

Cette thèse s'intéresse au lien qui existe entre le système électoral et deux comportements importants de la vie civique, soit la participation à une élection et la désertion stratégique du candidat préféré vers un autre candidat. Ces thèmes sont abordés dans de nombreux et de très importants ouvrages en science politique. En passant par la théorie (Downs, 1957) jusqu'à des études de terrain par l'entremise de sondages (Abramson, 2010; Blais, 2010), diverses méthodologies ont été employées pour mieux expliquer les choix des électeurs. Ma contribution à l'avancement des connaissances dans ce domaine passe par l'usage de la méthode expérimentale pour mieux saisir les similitudes et différences dans les comportements des électeurs sous le système uninominal à un tour (UT) et la représentation proportionnelle (RP) ainsi que les mécanismes au niveau individuel qui produisent ces similitudes et différences. Le cœur de la thèse est composé des trois articles dont voici les résumés : Article 1. Des élections expérimentales faites à Montréal, Paris et Bruxelles permettent d'estimer l’influence directe du mode de scrutin sur la décision des électeurs de voter ou non, et de voter pour leur parti préféré ou non. En tout, 16 groupes de 21 électeurs votent sous différents systèmes électoraux, soit le UT et la RP. Les préférences sont attribuées aléatoirement et connues de tous les participants. Nos résultats indiquent que le vote n'est pas globalement plus sincère et que la participation électorale n'est pas plus élevée sous le système proportionnel. Toutefois, nous observons moins de désertion d'un petit parti sous le système proportionnel. Article 2. Les expériences permettent également d'expliquer pourquoi les électeurs votent parfois pour un parti autre que leur parti préféré. La conclusion principale est que la décision de voter de façon sincère ou non est influencée par les préférences individuelles, mais aussi par les perceptions des chances de gagner des candidats ainsi que des chances que son propre vote puisse décider le résultat de l'élection. Les électeurs qui désertent leur premier choix prennent en considération quel candidat est le plus près de leurs positions politiques, mais également de la viabilité de cette alternative. De plus, les électeurs qui aiment prendre des risques ont davantage tendance à déserter. Article 3. Le modèle de l'électeur pivot est mis à l'épreuve pour mieux comprendre la décision de voter ou non lors d'une élection. Nos expériences permettent de répliquer, avec un devis expérimental différent, les résultats importants des travaux de Duffy et Tavits (2008). Nos résultats confirment que la perception d'être pivot augmente la participation, que ces perceptions sont sujettes à la surestimation et que cette surestimation ne décline pas complètement dans le temps. Nous allons également plus loin que les recherches de Duffy et Tavits et nous trouvons que la participation n'est pas plus forte sous RP que sous UT et que la probabilité d'être pivot a un impact plus important chez les électeurs évitant de prendre des risques.

El Acto Legislativo 01 de 2003. ¿Herramienta fallida para el fortalecimiento de los Partidos Políticos en Colombia?. Caso de estudio : Partido Social de Unidad Nacional - Partido de La U

La excesiva proliferación de partidos políticos y listas a las corporaciones públicas, permitidas por la debilidad normativa de la Constitución de 1991 y la suspicacia de los políticos colombianos, hizo necesaria una reforma política en el año 2003. Esta reforma, manifestada en el Acto Legislativo 01 de 2003, modificó el sistema electoral colombiano; los cambios más visibles modificaron la forma de conversión de votos en escaños, la forma de candidatura y modalidad del voto, y la creación una barrera legal. Estas modificaciones llevaron a la reagrupación de los partidos políticos, pero no necesariamente a su fortalecimiento, ya que no establece las herramientas necesarias para la transparencia y la democratización interna de los partidos, que conllevarían a su real institucionalización. El Partido Social de Unidad Nacional , partido de La U-, es creado después de la implementación de la reforma y consigue la mayor votación nacional en sus primeras elecciones. Pero, ¿lo convierte ese resultado electoral en un partido fuerte?.

Análisis del voto obligatorio en Chile como referencia para una eventual aplicación en Colombia

La siguiente monografía es un análisis del voto obligatorio en Chile como referencia para una eventual aplicación en Colombia. A través de ella se busca identificar las características esenciales – recomendaciones- para la implementación de un voto obligatorio en Colombia que contribuya al fortalecimiento del sistema electoral colombiano a partir de un aumento de la participación política electoral colombiana (sin que con ello se pretenda desconocer otros mecanismos de participación política ni mucho menos reducirla al ejercicio del voto), tomando como punto de referencia el análisis de la implementación del voto obligatorio en Chile.

16 años de la circunscripción nacional para Senado en Colombia: ¿dónde está el espacio de representación nacional?

Uno de los grandes cambios establecidos en la Constitución de 1991, y el principal dentro del sistema electoral, fue el establecimiento de la circunscripción nacional para la elección del Senado de la República. Como toda norma, tenía unos objetivos claros a la hora de su implementación que eran, sin duda alguna, visibles en las extensas discusiones dentro del proceso constituyente. Este artículo pretende evaluar uno de esos objetivos, específicamente el orientado a la búsqueda manifiesta de hombres y mujeres que forjasen proyectos políticos para todo el colectivo colombiano y que, al hacerlo, buscasen su elección en todo el territorio nacional y se autoconcibieran como líderes de toda la nación, superando el vínculo tradicionalmente regional que la historia ha visto pasar por el Senado en sus extensos 60 años de existencia. Para ello hemos sistematizado, descrito y analizado los resultados de los cinco eventos electorales que se han llevado a cabo para la elección del Senado desde 1991, con la ayuda de una revisión bibliográfica pertinente que permite comprender dichos resultados y ubicarlos en una esfera lógica de comportamiento de los candidatos escogidos en la circunscripción nacional. En este caso la explicación se inscribe dentro de la teoría de elección racional.-----One of the great changes established in the Constitution of 1991, and the main one within the electoral system, was the establishment of National Electoral District for the election of the Senate of the Republic. As with all laws, there were clear objectives at the time of its implementation that are, without doubt, visible in the extensive discussions within the constitutional process. This article intends, therefore, to evaluate one of these objectives, specifically the one focused on the public search for men and women who would forge political projects for Colombia as a whole and by doing so, would seek to be elected across the national territory and to design themselves as leaders of the whole country, thus overcoming the traditional regional links that history has seen pass through the Senate in its extensive 60 yeas of existence. In this light, the electoral results of the five electoral events that have taken place for the election of the Senate since 1991, have been automated, described, and analyzed, with the help of the relevant bibliographic review that allows to understand said results and place them within the logical sphere of the behavior of candidates chosen in the national district; in this case, the explanation is in line with the rational election theory.

El transfuguismo politico en el sistema de partidos en Colombia en el marco de los actos legislativos 01-2003 y 01-2009

El presente trabajo busca examinar cómo los elementos modificados en el Sistema Electoral Colombiano a través del Acto legislativo 01 del 2003 y el 01 del 2009, a saber: lista única, cifra repartidora y umbral electoral, propiciaron el transfuguismo político dado en las elecciones legislativas del año 2006 y 2010 en Colombia. La investigación partirá de la explicación del fenómeno transfuguista y de sus respectivas variables causales; se analizaran las elecciones al Congreso de la República previas a la reforma política, con el fin de poder interpretar desde su comportamiento tradicional, los efectos de los elementos modificados del Sistema Electoral en la práctica transfuguista de las elecciones legislativas de los años 2006 y 2010.

Democracia procedimental con enfoque intercultural. Una asignatura pendiente para el Estado de Derechos (Tema Central)

El presente trabajo pretende evidenciar cómo la democracia de los estados plurinacionales, como Ecuador, si bien ha realizado avances importantes en cuanto a la universalización de la participación política dentro de un sistema democrático, ni siquiera se ha planteado la posibilidad de pluriculturizar los mecanismos por los que se manifiesta la voluntad popular. el hecho de contar con un único sistema electoral, estatal y construido a partir de un enfoque formalista de democracia liberal, como regla de la mayoría, puede producir efectos de participación en desventaja en relación a sectores sociales cuyas tradiciones y formas de participación política son distintas pero no por ello, menos democráticas, si las comparamos con el sistema electoral estatal, de ahí que, el autor plantea esta inquietud como una provocación al debate académico y social sobre el tema.