A bancada da bola no legislativo carioca: concepções, evidências e estratégias de uma representação singular

O objetivo deste trabalho é analisar a atuação de vereadores ligados à bancada da bola no quadriênio situado entre 2008 e 2012, bem como examinar a interface desses parlamentares com torcidas organizadas de futebol. A partir de um aparato teórico-metodológico marcado pela multidisciplinaridade, procura-se mostrar o contexto social e político em que emerge esse tipo de liderança, suas plataformas de campanha, os padrões de votação e os projetos políticos característicos dos representantes eleitos. De outro lado, o estudo privilegia as reivindicações, concepções e estratégias presentes no intercâmbio entre as partes. O diagnóstico sugerido discute questões mais amplas envolvendo temas que relacionam os campos do futebol e da política. Ademais, justifica a consideração de matérias como o impacto do sistema eleitoral na popularização do arquétipo do parlamentar brasileiro, a responsividade dos vereadores a suas bases, a conformidade dos padrões de votação e o desempenho dos mandatários e o comportamento eleitoral no Brasil.

Associativismo e comportamento eleitoral na eleição de 2002

A autora analisa a participação eleitoral em 2002, relacionando-a às formas de participação associativa. A hipótese testada é de que o eleitor com vínculos associativos tem maior participação eleitoral. Nesse sentido, os resultados sugerem que para os eleitores ativos há um perfil associado à participação em greves e filiação sindical mas, quanto à sua filiação partidária, sugerem que há outros fatores intervenientes na relação. O artigo utiliza os dados do ESEB 2002

Bases sociais e interiorização: o predomínio eleitoral do PSDB paulista (1994-2014)

Desde 1994, ininterruptamente o PSDB elege seus candidatos ao governo do Estado de São Paulo. Hegemonia eleitoral de tamanha duração vitória em seis eleições consecutivas não foi alcançada por nenhum outro partido em pleitos estaduais na história democrática brasileira recente. Tal feito é ainda mais relevante ao levarmos em conta a trajetória eleitoral paulista, historicamente associada a quadros partidários e resultados das urnas surpreendentes. Assim, o objetivo desta pesquisa é identificar as bases sociais e territoriais do voto nos principais partidos do Estado de São Paulo, com ênfase no PSDB. Para tanto, utilizamos as seguintes variáveis: pesquisas eleitorais estratificadas por renda e escolaridade; tamanho dos municípios; nível de desenvolvimento médio das localidades (ao nível das zonas eleitorais e municípios) para duas regiões previamente estabelecidas a Grande São Paulo e o interior. Identificamos que o partido tucano obtém apoio crescente na medida em que se elevam os índices socioeconômicos do eleitorado. O partido, porém, mantém um importante suporte entre os setores populares sobretudo no interior do Estado. Por fim, ainda que obtenha penetração elevada em todos os municípios paulistas, o PSDB possui melhores resultados nas pequenas localidades. Ao final, discutimos estes achados à luz do panorama eleitoral, partidário e federativo no Brasil.

The economic voter and economic crisis

Theories of economic voting have a long tradition in political science and continue to inspire a large group of scholars. Classical economic voting theory assumes a reward-and-punishment mechanism (Key, 1966). This mechanism implies that incumbents are more likely to stay in power under a good economy, but are cast out under a bad economy (Lewis-Beck and Stegmaier, 2000). The economy has repeatedly been shown to be a major determinant of electoral behavior (see especially the recent book by Duch and Stevenson, 2008), but the current economic crisis seems to provide a marked illustration of how the economy affects voting. In recent elections across the Western industrialized world, most ruling coalitions lost their majority. Opposition parties, on the other hand, whether right wing or left wing, have appeared to benefit from the economic downturn.

The economic voter and economic crisis

Theories of economic voting have a long tradition in political science and continue to inspire a large group of scholars. Classical economic voting theory assumes a reward-and-punishment mechanism (Key, 1966). This mechanism implies that incumbents are more likely to stay in power under a good economy, but are cast out under a bad economy (Lewis-Beck and Stegmaier, 2000). The economy has repeatedly been shown to be a major determinant of electoral behavior (see especially the recent book by Duch and Stevenson, 2008), but the current economic crisis seems to provide a marked illustration of how the economy affects voting. In recent elections across the Western industrialized world, most ruling coalitions lost their majority. Opposition parties, on the other hand, whether right wing or left wing, have appeared to benefit from the economic downturn.

Structural behavior analysis, Canyon Ferry Dam, 1951-1963,

"[Dams Branch] report no. DD-4."

Devolution and Electoral Politics in Scotland and Wales

Scully, Roger, and R. Wyn Jones, 'Devolution and Electoral Politics in Scotland and Wales', Publius, (2006) 36(1) pp.115-134 RAE2008

Electoral observation: Evidence from Mozambique

Electoral fraud is a common problem in young democracies. Election observers constitute one possible remedy. Yet, quantitative evidence of the exact effects of observers is scarce. Data on the random assignment of observers during Mozambique’s 2009 general elections is used to estimate the impact that observers have on ballot fraud. It is shown that the presence of national observers reduces high levels of turnout and manipulation of ballots. The findings contribute to the understanding of the behavior of politicians and have implications for the implementation of observer missions.

Perfil sociodemográfico y clínico de los pacientes con lepra atendidos en el Hospital San Salvador de Chiquinquirá, Boyacá, durante el periodo 1951-1999

El objetivo del estudio describir el perfil sociodemográfico y clínico de los casos de enfermedad de Hansen, atendidos en el consultorio dermatológico del Hospital San Salvador, entre 1951 y 1999, para la formulación de recomendaciones en la búsqueda de la eliminación de la lepra como problema de salud pública en el país. Por lo tanto, la investigación corresponde a un estudio descriptivo longitudinal, en el cual se revisaron en total de 302 historias clínicas, que recogían 43 años del programa. Se encontró que el perfil de los enfermos correspondía a hombres jóvenes con edad promedio de 39 años, casados, procedentes en su mayoría de Boyacá, del área rural y dedicados a la agricultura. El promedio de tiempo entre síntomas y diagnóstico fue de 5,4 años. El 98,2 % de los pacientes presentaron síntomas primarios de lepra, en su mayoría neurológicos y dermatológicos. Predominaron las formas multibacilares en los mayores de quince años con un diagnóstico por baciloscopia y en los paucibacilares por clínica. La monoterapia fue el esquema más utilizado, tomado de forma regular. Los hombres presentaron mayor discapacidad en  manos, tanto al inicio como al final del tratamiento, en relación con las mujeres (x2: 14,23 p: 0,0000). El promedio de tiempo entre el diagnóstico y el inicio de tratamiento fue nueve días, mientras el promedio de tiempo total de tratamiento, 12,7 años. En un 40% de los casos no se conoció el desenlace, el 26,8% se reportaron como curados y el 19,5 % falleció. Un campesino joven con lepra lepromatosa tratado con monoterapia en tiempos prolongados y mayor discapacidad en manos es el perfil de los pacientes que concuerda con el comportamiento de la enfermedad en el mundo.

Congress composition and electoral advantage

In 2003, an electoral reform changed the mechanism to assign seats in the Colombian Congress. I simulate the 2006 Senate elections using the previous assignment mechanism to determine which senators benefited from the reform, i.e. would have not been elected had the reform not been made. With the results of the simulation, I use a regression discontinuity design to compare the senators that would have been barely elected anyways with those who would have lost, but were near to be elected. I check the differences in the amount of law drafts presented, the attendance to voting sessions, and a discipline index for each senator as proxy of their legislative behavior. I find that the senators benefiting from the reform present a different legislative behavior during the 4-year term with respect to the senators that would have been elected anyways. Since the differential legislative behavior cannot be interpreted as being better (worse) politician, I examine if the behavioral difference gives them an electoral advantage. I find no difference in the electoral result of 2010 Senate election in terms of the probability of being (re)elected in 2010, the share of votes, the share of votes within their party list, and the concentration of their votes. Additionally, I check the probability of being investigated for links with paramilitary groups and I find no differences. The results suggest that political reforms can change the composition of governing or legislative bodies in terms of performance, but it does not necessarily translate into an electoral advantage.

A survey study of voting behavior and political participation in Zhejiang

Two existing models are used to conceptualize the constrained and limited participation in the communist system. The mobilization model suggests that participation was so mobilized by the party/state that it was largely meaningless, while the disengagement model supports the idea that many communist citizens adopted non-participatory behaviors such as non-voting as a means of protest. This paper attempts to demonstrate the importance of a third model – the emergent democratic culture model. The survey results show that the participation index is in proportion to the number of elections in which a villager is involved; and a growing number of voters in Zhejiang are developing citizen-initiated participation, with rights consciousness.

This research finds that the level of participation is influenced by three major factors: the perceived worth of the election itself, regularity of electoral procedures, and the fairness of electoral procedures. It also finds that parochial political culture and political apathy still exist, and the emergent democratic consciousness falls short of an ideal democratic standard. While a highly democratic culture helps to develop village democracy, the apathetic attitude continues to support the authoritarian leadership and structure in many villages. The paper also gives an account of survey research in rural China and offers a thoughtful critique of the use of voting and non-voting as the sole indicator of political participation.

Patterns of honey storage in nests of the neotropical paper wasp Polistes simillimus Zikán, 1951 (Hymenoptera, Vespidae)

This study describes, for the first time, the occurrence of two patterns of honey storage in nests of the paper wasp Polistes simillimus. During the period of January of 1997 to September of 2000 we visited 262 colonies of P. simillimus, found at several places in States of São Paulo and Minas Gerais, in the southeast region of Brazil. Only in 2.67% of the colonies of P. simillimus searched presented the behavior of honey storage. Two of these colonies were in the pre-emergency phase, two in the post-emergency and three in decline. The results suggest that the honey storage can be correlated with the number of present individuals in the colony, because the colonies in decline, with larger number of individuals, presented many more cells occupied with honey than the nests in pre and post-emergency. There was not a pattern for the distribution of the cells with honey in the nests in decline. The honey storage in the colonies in pre and post-emergency of P. simillimus, suggests a strategy to increase success of foraging activity in the function of parental care. Already for the colonies in decline, this strategy seems to be associated with the individuals' survival in the aggregation, since the wasps are awaiting the passage of the unfavorable climatic conditions for the dispersion and foundation of new colonies.

Stage, Grade and Behavior of Bladder Urothelial Carcinoma Defined by the MicroRNA Expression Profile

Purpose: We identified miRNA expression profiles in urothelial carcinoma that are associated with grade, stage, and recurrence-free and disease specific survival. Materials and Methods: The expression of 14 miRNAs was evaluated by quantitative reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction in surgical specimens from 30 patients with low grade, noninvasive (pTa) and 30 with high grade, invasive (pT2-3) urothelial carcinoma. Controls were normal bladder tissue from 5 patients who underwent surgical treatment for benign prostatic hyperplasia. Endogenous controls were RNU-43 and RNU-48. miRNA profiles were compared and Kaplan-Meier curves were constructed to analyze disease-free and disease specific survival. Results: miR-100 was under expressed in 100% of low grade pTa specimens (p <0.001) and miR-10a was over expressed in 73.3% (p <0.001). miR-21 and miR-205 were over expressed in high grade pT2-3 disease (p = 0.02 and <0.001, respectively). The other miRNAs were present at levels similar to those of normal bladder tissue or under expressed in each tumor group. miR-21 over expression (greater than 1.08) was related to shorter disease-free survival in patients with low grade pTa urothelial carcinoma. Higher miR-10a levels (greater than 2.30) were associated with shorter disease-free and disease specific survival in patients with high grade pT2-3 urothelial carcinoma. Conclusions: Four miRNAs were differentially expressed in the 2 urothelial carcinoma groups. miR-100 and miR-10a showed under expression and over expression, respectively, in low grade pTa tumors. miR-21 and miR-205 were over expressed in pT2-3 disease. In addition, miR-10a and miR-21 over expression was associated with shorter disease-free and disease specific survival. miRNAs could be incorporated into the urothelial carcinoma molecular pathway. These miRNAs could also serve as new diagnostic or prognostic markers and new target drugs.

The Moderating Role of Electoral Pressure on Congressional Ideological Polarization: A Cross-Sectional Time-Series Analysis

Reelection and self-interest are recurring themes in the study of our congressional leaders. To date, many studies have already been done on the trends between elections, party affiliation, and voting behavior in Congress. However, because a plethora of data has been collected on both elections and congressional voting, the ability to draw a connection between the two provides a very reasonable prospect. This project analyzes whether voting shifts in congressional elections have an effect on congressional voting. Will a congressman become ideologically more polarized when his electoral margins increase? Essentially, this paper assumes that all congressmen are ideologically polarized, and it is elections which serve to reel congressmen back toward the ideological middle. The election and ideological data for this study, which spans from the 56th to the 107th Congress, finds statistically significant relationships between these two variables. In fact, congressman pay attention to election returns when voting in Congress. When broken down by party, Democrats are more exhibitive of this phenomenon, which suggest that Democrats may be more likely to intrinsically follow the popular model of representation. Meanwhile, it can be hypothesized that insignificant results for Republicans indicate that Republicans may follow a trustee model of representation.