Implementing effective travel demand management measures: inventory of measures and synthesis of experience. Final report.

Transportation Department, Washington, D.C.

A guidance manual for implementing effective employer-based travel demand management programs. Final report.

Federal Highway Administration, Washington, D.C.

Incentive-based demand response programs designed by asset-light retailers for day-ahead market

Following the deregulation experience of retail electricity markets in most countries, the majority of the new entrants of the liberalized retail market were pure REP (retail electricity providers). These entities were subject to financial risks because of the unexpected price variations, price spikes, volatile loads and the potential for market power exertion by GENCO (generation companies). A REP can manage the market risks by employing the DR (demand response) programs and using its' generation and storage assets at the distribution network to serve the customers. The proposed model suggests how a REP with light physical assets, such as DG (distributed generation) units and ESS (energy storage systems), can survive in a competitive retail market. The paper discusses the effective risk management strategies for the REPs to deal with the uncertainties of the DAM (day-ahead market) and how to hedge the financial losses in the market. A two-stage stochastic programming problem is formulated. It aims to establish the financial incentive-based DR programs and the optimal dispatch of the DG units and ESSs. The uncertainty of the forecasted day-ahead load demand and electricity price is also taken into account with a scenario-based approach. The principal advantage of this model for REPs is reducing the risk of financial losses in DAMs, and the main benefit for the whole system is market power mitigation by virtually increasing the price elasticity of demand and reducing the peak demand.

An investigation of the determinants of household demand for bushmeat in the Serengeti using an open-ended choice experiment

Illegal hunting for bushmeat is regarded as an important cause of biodiversity decline in Africa. We use a stated preferences method to obtain information on determinants of demand for bushmeat in villages around the Serengeti National Park, Tanzania. We estimate the effects of changes in the own price of bushmeat and in the prices of two substitute protein sources – fish and chicken. Promoting the availability of protein substitutes at lower prices would be effective at reducing pressures on wildlife. Supply-side measures that raise the price of bushmeat would also be effective.

How effective are policies to reduce gasoline consumption? evaluating a quasi-natural experiment in Spain

Using a panel of 48 provinces for four years we empirically analyze a series of temporary policies aimed at curbing fuel consumption implemented in Spain between March and June 2011. The first policy was a reduction in the speed limit in highways. The second policy was an increase in the biofuel content of fuels used in the transport sector. The third measure was a reduction of 5% in commuting and regional train fares that resulted in two major metropolitan areas reducing their overall fare for public transit. The results indicate that the speed limit reduction in highways reduced gasoline consumption by between 2% and 3%, while an increase in the biofuel content of gasoline increased this consumption. This last result is consistent with experimental evidence that indicates that mileage per liter falls with an increase in the biofuel content in gasolines. As for the reduction in transit fares, we do not find a significant effect for this policy. However, in specifications including the urban transit fare for the major cities in each province the estimated cross-price elasticity of the demand for gasoline -used as a proxy for car use- with respect to the price of transit is within the range reported in the literature. This is important since one of the main eficiency justification for subsidizing public transit rests on the positive value of this parameter and most of the estimates reported in the literature are quite dated.

The illusion of control, the structures of prizes and the demand for football pools in Spain

Using data for all the fixtures for the seasons from 1972-73 to 2002-03, we estimate a dynamic model of demand for football pools in Spain paying attention to whether their main economic explanatory variable is the effective price of a ticket or the jackpot. Additionally, we evaluate the importance of the composition of the list of games in terms of whether First Division matches are included or not. Results show that the jackpot model is preferred to the effective price model, having important implications in terms of how the structure of the game should be changed in order to increase demand.

On heuristic and linear models of judgment: Mapping the demand for knowledge

Research on judgment and decision making presents a confusing picture of human abilities. For example, much research has emphasized the dysfunctional aspects of judgmental heuristics, and yet, other findings suggest that these can be highly effective. A further line of research has modeled judgment as resulting from as if linear models. This paper illuminates the distinctions in these approaches by providing a common analytical framework based on the central theoretical premise that understanding human performance requires specifying how characteristics of the decision rules people use interact with the demands of the tasks they face. Our work synthesizes the analytical tools of lens model research with novel methodology developed to specify the effectiveness of heuristics in different environments and allows direct comparisons between the different approaches. We illustrate with both theoretical analyses and simulations. We further link our results to the empirical literature by a meta-analysis of lens model studies and estimate both human andheuristic performance in the same tasks. Our results highlight the trade-off betweenlinear models and heuristics. Whereas the former are cognitively demanding, the latterare simple to use. However, they require knowledge and thus maps of when andwhich heuristic to employ.

Fatigue study of the fillet weld waving on weld toe and the penetration in the weld root based on the effective notch stress approach

The fatigue failure of structures under fluctuating loads in fillet weld joints raises a demand to determine the parameters related to this type of loading. In this study, the stress distribution in the susceptible area of weld toe and weld root in fillet welded models analyzed by finite element method applying FEMAP software. To avoid the geometrical singularity on the path of analytical stress analysis in the toe and root area of a weld model the effective notch stress approach applied by which a proper fictitious rounding that mostly depend on the material of structure is applied. The models with different weld toe waving width and radius are analyzed while the flank angle of weld varied in 45 and 30 degrees. The processed results shows that the waving compare to the straight weld toe makes differences in the value of stress and consequently the stress concentration factor between the tip and depth of the waves in the weld toe which helps to protect the crack of propagation and gives enough time and tools to be informed of the crack initiation in the structure during the periodical observation of structure. In the weld root study the analyses among the models with the welding penetration percentage from non-penetration to the full-penetration shows a slightly increase in the root area stress value which comparing with the stiffening effect of penetration conclude that the half-penetration can make an optimization between the stress increase and stiffening effect of deep penetration.

Modelling the exothermic heat and the demand of cooling in paper and pulp industry biological wastewater treatment

This master thesis presents a study on the requisite cooling of an activated sludge process in paper and pulp industry. The energy consumption of paper and pulp industry and it’s wastewater treatment plant in particular is relatively high. It is therefore useful to understand the wastewater treatment process of such industries. The activated sludge process is a biological mechanism which degrades carbonaceous compounds that are present in waste. The modified activated sludge model constructed here aims to imitate the bio-kinetics of an activated sludge process. However, due to the complicated non-linear behavior of the biological process, modelling this system is laborious and intriguing. We attempt to find a system solution first using steady-state modelling of Activated Sludge Model number 1 (ASM1), approached by Euler’s method and an ordinary differential equation solver. Furthermore, an enthalpy study of paper and pulp industry’s vital pollutants was carried out and applied to revise the temperature shift over a period of time to formulate the operation of cooling water. This finding will lead to a forecast of the plant process execution in a cost-effective manner and management of effluent efficiency. The final stage of the thesis was achieved by optimizing the steady state of ASM1.

L’étendue effective de la pratique d’infirmières en pédiatrie : ses déterminants et son influence sur la satisfaction professionnelle

Le déploiement optimal de l’étendue de la pratique infirmière, qui traduit la mise en œuvre du rôle professionnel, est essentiel à l’accessibilité, à la continuité, à la qualité ainsi qu’à la sécurité des soins, dont ceux dispensés aux enfants et à leur famille. Or, il semble que les infirmières éprouvent certaines difficultés à déployer pleinement leur étendue de pratique, ce qui pourrait également compromettre la satisfaction professionnelle, un enjeu majeur pour la rétention du personnel dans les organisations de soins de santé. Le but de cette étude est de mesurer l’étendue effective de la pratique d’infirmières en pédiatrie, ses déterminants et son influence sur la satisfaction professionnelle. Le cadre de référence, un modèle original développé dans cette thèse, prend appui sur la théorie des caractéristiques de l’emploi (Hackman & Oldham, 1974), le modèle tension-autonomie (Karasek, 1985), la théorie du rôle (Biddle, 1979) et les travaux de D’Amour et al. (2012) portant sur l’étendue de la pratique infirmière. Afin d’atteindre le but de cette étude, le modèle développé met en relation les caractéristiques du travail et les caractéristiques individuelles d’influence potentielle sur le déploiement de l’étendue de la pratique infirmière. Il présuppose également un lien entre l’étendue de la pratique infirmière et la satisfaction professionnelle. Un devis corrélationnel descriptif a été retenu pour cette étude. Une enquête par questionnaire auprès d’infirmières de cinq secteurs d’activités d’un centre hospitalier pédiatrique universitaire du Québec a été réalisée (N=301). Les associations entre les variables ont été examinées en utilisant des analyses bivariées, multivariées et un modèle d’équations structurelles. Les analyses effectuées révèlent une bonne concordance du modèle développé (ratio x²/dl= 1,68; RMSEA = ,049; CFI = ,985). Au total, le modèle explique 32,5 % de la variance de l’étendue de la pratique infirmière et 11,3% de la variance de la satisfaction professionnelle. Les résultats font état d’un déploiement non-optimal de l’étendue de la pratique infirmière (3,21/6; É.T.= ,707). Les variables significativement associées au déploiement de l’étendue de la pratique infirmière sont: la latitude décisionnelle (β = ,319; p <0,01), la surcharge de rôle (β = ,201; p <0,05), l’ambiguïté de rôle (β = ,297; p <0,05), le besoin de croissance individuelle de l’infirmière (β = ,151; p <0,05) et le niveau de formation (β = ,128; p <0,05). Il est également démontré que l’étendue de la pratique infirmière est associée positivement à la satisfaction professionnelle (β = ,118; p <0,01). Une description plus détaillée des résultats de l’étendue de la pratique infirmière en fonction du niveau de formation et du poste occupé met en lumière que les infirmières bachelières ont une étendue de pratique significativement plus élevée (3,35; É.T =,746) que les infirmières collégiales (3,12; É.T =,669). L’occupation d’un poste de clinicienne est aussi associée à une plus grande étendue de pratique infirmière. Précisément, les infirmières qui occupent un poste d’infirmière obtiennent un score de 3,13/6 (É.T =,664) alors que le score des infirmières qui occupent un poste de clinicienne s’élève à 3,48/6 (É.T =,798). Cette étude innove en présentant un modèle de référence qui a le potentiel de générer des connaissances importantes en sciences infirmières en lien avec le déploiement optimal de l’étendue de pratique infirmière. Prenant appui sur ce modèle novateur, les résultats révèlent les caractéristiques du travail sur lesquelles il y a urgence d’agir afin d’accroître le déploiement de l’étendue de la pratique infirmière et par le fait même la satisfaction professionnelle.

Operational Flexibility: A Model for Effective Project Management

The aim of this study is to investigate the role of operational flexibility for effective project management in the construction industry. The specific objectives are to: a) Identify the determinants of operational flexibility potential in construction project management b) Investigate the contribution of each of the determinants to operational flexibility potential in the construction industry c) Investigate on the moderating factors of operational flexibility potential in a construction project environment d) Investigate whether moderated operational flexibility potential mediates the path between predictors and effective construction project management e) Develop and test a conceptual model of achieving operational flexibility for effective project management The purpose of this study is to findout ways to utilize flexibility inorder to manage uncertain project environment and ultimately achieve effective project management. In what configuration these operational flexibility determinants are demanded by construction project environment in order to achieve project success. This research was conducted in three phases, namely: (i) exploratory phase (ii) questionnaire development phase; and (iii) data collection and analysis phase. The study needs firm level analysis and therefore real estate developers who are members of CREDAI, Kerala Chapter were considered. This study provides a framework on the functioning of operational flexibility, offering guidance to researchers and practitioners for discovering means to gain operational flexibility in construction firms. The findings provide an empirical understanding on kinds of resources and capabilities a construction firm must accumulate to respond flexibly to the changing project environment offering practitioners insights into practices that build firms operational flexibility potential. Firms are dealing with complex, continuous changing and uncertain environments due trends of globalization, technical changes and innovations and changes in the customers’ needs and expectations. To cope with the increasingly uncertain and quickly changing environment firms strive for flexibility. To achieve the level of flexibility that adds value to the customers, firms should look to flexibility from a day to day operational perspective. Each dimension of operational flexibility is derived from competences and capabilities. In this thesis only the influence on customer satisfaction and learning exploitation of flexibility dimensions which directly add value in the customers eyes are studied to answer the followingresearch questions: “What is the impact of operational flexibility on customer satisfaction?.” What are the predictors of operational flexibility in construction industry? .These questions can only be answered after answering the questions like “Why do firms need operational flexibility?” and “how can firms achieve operational flexibility?” in the context of the construction industry. The need for construction firms to be flexible, via the effective utilization of organizational resources and capabilities for improved responsiveness, is important because of the increasing rate of changes in the business environment within which they operate. Achieving operational flexibility is also important because it has a significant correlation with a project effectiveness and hence a firm’s turnover. It is essential for academics and practitioners to recognize that the attainment of operational flexibility involves different types namely: (i) Modification (ii) new product development and (iii) demand management requires different configurations of predictors (i.e., resources, capabilities and strategies). Construction firms should consider these relationships and implement appropriate management practices for developing and configuring the right kind of resources, capabilities and strategies towards achieving different operational flexibility types.

Testing symmetry and homogeneity in the almost ideal demand system with co-integrated data using fully modified estimation and the bootstrap

Conventional seemingly unrelated estimation of the almost ideal demand system is shown to lead to small sample bias and distortions in the size of a Wald test for symmetry and homogeneity when the data are co-integrated. A fully modified estimator is developed in an attempt to remedy these problems. It is shown that this estimator reduces the small sample bias but fails to eliminate the size distortion.. Bootstrapping is shown to be ineffective as a method of removing small sample bias in both the conventional and fully modified estimators. Bootstrapping is effective, however, as a method of removing. size distortion and performs equally well in this respect with both estimators.

Apple pollination: demand depends on variety and supply depends on pollinator identity

Insect pollination underpins apple production but the extent to which different pollinator guilds supply this service, particularly across different apple varieties, is unknown. Such information is essential if appropriate orchard management practices are to be targeted and proportional to the potential benefits pollinator species may provide. Here we use a novel combination of pollinator effectiveness assays (floral visit effectiveness), orchard field surveys (flower visitation rate) and pollinator dependence manipulations (pollinator exclusion experiments) to quantify the supply of pollination services provided by four different pollinator guilds to the production of four commercial varieties of apple. We show that not all pollinators are equally effective at pollinating apples, with hoverflies being less effective than solitary bees and bumblebees, and the relative abundance of different pollinator guilds visiting apple flowers of different varieties varies significantly. Based on this, the taxa specific economic benefits to UK apple production have been established. The contribution of insect pollinators to the economic output in all varieties was estimated to be £92.1M across the UK, with contributions varying widely across taxa: solitary bees (£51.4M), honeybees (£21.4M), bumblebees (£18.6M) and hoverflies (£0.7M). This research highlights the differences in the economic benefits of four insect pollinator guilds to four major apple varieties in the UK. This information is essential to underpin appropriate investment in pollination services management and provides a model that can be used in other entomolophilous crops to improve our understanding of crop pollination ecology.

On the cutting stock problem under stochastic demand

This paper addresses the one-dimensional cutting stock problem when demand is a random variable. The problem is formulated as a two-stage stochastic nonlinear program with recourse. The first stage decision variables are the number of objects to be cut according to a cutting pattern. The second stage decision variables are the number of holding or backordering items due to the decisions made in the first stage. The problem`s objective is to minimize the total expected cost incurred in both stages, due to waste and holding or backordering penalties. A Simplex-based method with column generation is proposed for solving a linear relaxation of the resulting optimization problem. The proposed method is evaluated by using two well-known measures of uncertainty effects in stochastic programming: the value of stochastic solution-VSS-and the expected value of perfect information-EVPI. The optimal two-stage solution is shown to be more effective than the alternative wait-and-see and expected value approaches, even under small variations in the parameters of the problem.

A study of pent-up demand in ophthalmology: Divinolandia Hospital/Unicamp

Objective: To assess the waiting time for eye care identifying the number of patients with each complaint; to investigate how the waiting time may worsen the patient's condition; to check the screening of urgent cases for effectiveness; and to devise means of increasing the medical-surgical care capacity. Methods: A retrospective descriptive survey was conducted using data obtained on 12 occasions during collaborative team visits to provide eyecare services. These initiatives were designed to decrease the waiting time and to treat urgent cases that occurred on each occasion; eyecare services were provided every Saturday, in the period from June to August 2006, in 16 cities of the region covered by Conderg (Consortium for the Development of the Sao Joao da Boa Vista Administrative Region). Results: Referrals used 1,743 (87.1%) of the 2,000 places available. The most frequent diagnoses were refractive errors, with 683 cases, corresponding to 39.1% of the total, followed by cataracts, with 296 cases, corresponding to 20.9%. Of the 238 surgeries indicated, 54.6% were phakectomies. Thirty-five (2.0%) cases were considered urgent. Conclusion: The most common diagnoses made during the team visits to manage the excess demand for eyecare were refractive errors and cataracts, which, together, accounted for the majority of the cases. The Divinolandia Hospital has the necessary human and material resources to meet the demand left unattended by the local SUS network. Immediate referral of urgent cases by the primary units' screeners proved effective.